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Country Overview: Myanmar




Presenter:

Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D.
Frost& Sullivan
Country Manager, Thailand
Chief Representative Officer, Myanmar/ Lao/ Cambodia
Head of AEC Strategy Practice, APAC
Country Overview




                   2
Country Snapshot

Republic of the Union of Myanmar (also known as Burma)
• One of the least developed countries in the world
• Abundant natural resources and cheap pool of labor
• Undergoing political and economic transformation after the fall of the long
  ruling military regime



Area Size                              Administrative Division
• 676,578 km2 – 40th in the world      • 7 regions (divisions)
• Bordered with India, Bangladesh,     • 7 states
  China, Laos, and Thailand            • Capital city: Nay Pyi Taw
                                       • Commercial hub: Yangon

Natural Resource                       Key Industries
Petroleum, timber, tin, antimony,      Agriculture processing, wood and
zinc, copper, tungsten lead, coal,     wood products, copper, tin, tungsten,
marble, limestone, precious stones,    iron, cement, construction materials,
natural gas, hydropower                pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, oil and
                                       natural gas, garments, jade, and
                                       gems


                                                                                3
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
                                   Key Macroeconomic Indicators, Myanmar, 2011
                              ECONOMIC                                                       POPULATION
GDP (US$ Billion)                             83                       Population Number                       54,584,650
GDP per Capita (US$)                          1,325                    Population Annual Growth                1.23%
GDP Growth                                    5.5%                     Gender/Sex Ratio                        99(M) : 100(F)
Inflation Rate                                5.2%                     Number of Households                    11,826,000
Export/Import (US$ Million)                   45.2/42.9                Average Household Size                  4.62
Benchmark Interest Rate                       12%
                                                                                          SOCIAL - EDUCATION
Lending Interest Rate                         15%
                                                                       Working population                      41.6%
Exchange Rate (= US$ 1)                       MMK825
                                                                       Unemployment rate                       5%
Consumer Confidence                           N.A.
                                                                       Poverty rate                            32.7 %
Consumer Price Index                          163.32
                                                                       Human Development Index                 0.48 (rank 149/187)
                              FINANCIAL
                                                                       Gender Inequality Index                 0.492
Country Income Profile                        Low income
Poverty Line                                  MMK754 per day                                MOTORIZATION
Income share of Highest/Lowest 10%            32.4%/2.8%               No. of Vehicles/1000 persons             7

                              FUEL COST                                Drive                                    LHD/RHD

Type             Gasoline            Diesel                 CNG        Emission Requirement                     N.A.

Ratio               1                 1.1                     -        Paved Road                               21%

Price       US$4.30/gallon      US$4.73/gallon            US$0.33/Kg              Source: CSO, CIA World Factbook, UNDP, Frost & Sullivan.

                                                                                                                                 4
Political Risk
   Among the top countries exposed to rapid and sudden changes of government policies
               Political System, Myanmar, 2011                     • The new government, which took power in
                         Myanmar                                     Mar 2011, ended a 23-year military regime.
                        Government
                                           2008 Constitution       • Several efforts have been made towards
                                                                     democracy, most notably the release of
                                                                     opposition party leader, Aung San Suu Kyi,
                                                                     and more recently, the reshuffle of the
   Executive              Legislative              Judiciary
                                                                     cabinet to include more reformists.

                        Union Assembly                                Main Issues to Address
   President             (Pyidaungsu            Supreme Court
                           Hluttaw)                                     •   Deficient democracy
                                                                        •   Infrastructure development
                              House of Nationalities                    •   Special economic zones
                               (Amyotha Hluttaw)                        •   Education and health
                                                                        •   Human rights abuses
                             House of Representatives                   •   Weak regulatory and legal system
                                 (Pyithu Hluttaw)                       •   Corruption
                                                                        •   Child labour and forced labour
                                                                        •   Environmental issues
Ranked 2 out of top 20 countries in the world with highest
political risks in 2012 according to Maplecroft’s Political Risk        •   Release of political prisoners
(Dynamic) Index.                                                        •   Ethnic violence
                                                                                          Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

                                                                                                                   5
Economic Analysis
                       Economy is gradually picking up and expected to attain 6% growth in 2012
                                   GDP (PPP), Myanmar, 2007-2011
                                                                                                                              GDP by Sector, Myanmar, 2011
                                              GDP         GDP Growth
                      90                                                          83          14
                            12.0                                   77
                      80                            72                                        12
GDP (PPP) (USD bil)




                                       68
                      70    64




                                                                                                           GDP Growth (%)
                                                                                                                                      Services
                                                                                              10
                      60                                                                                                               37%             Agriculture
                      50                                                                      8                                                          43%
                      40                            5.1            5.3           5.5
                                                                                              6
                      30               3.6                                                                                                  Industry
                                                                                              4
                      20                                                                                                                      20%
                      10                                                                      2
                       0                                                                      0
                           2007        2008         2009          2010          2011
                                                           Source: International Monetary Fund.
                                                                                                                            GDP per Capita, Myanmar, 2007-2011
                                                                                                               1,400                                                 1,325



                                                                                           GDP (PPP) per
               • Myanmar’s GDP grew the highest in past 5 years,


                                                                                            Capita (USD)
                                                                                                               1,300                                       1,255
                 crossing US$ 80 billion in 2011.                                                                                                1,201
                                                                                                               1,200                    1,153
               • Biggest contribution came from Agriculture and                                                               1,111
                 Services sectors.                                                                             1,100
               • GDP per capita in 2011 was US$ 1,325 (almost 20%                                              1,000
                 growth from 2007 figure).                                                                                    2007      2008     2009      2010      2011


                                                                                                                                                                       6
Economic Analysis
                    Rapid developments to set banking sector ready for AEC in 2015

                    Banking Sector Structure, Myanmar, 2011                       • Myanmar’s antiquated banking sector has gradually opened up
                                                                                    since the new civilian government took control in 2011, allowing
                                                                                    the establishment of more domestic private banks and
                                   Central Bank of                                  representative offices of international banks and financial
                                     Myanmar                                        institutions.
                                                                                  • However, foreign banks are still not allowed to offer banking
                                                                                    services. They will only be able to form joint ventures in 2014.
           Government                                          Overseas           • Interest rates have been made in line with other ASEAN countries
                                     Private Banks                                  to raise national competitiveness.
             Banks                                              Banks
                                          (19)
               (4)                                               (23)             • FEC, which has been used as a substitute for US dollar in the
                                                                                    country, is expected to be terminated by end of 2012 when the
                                                                                    new Foreign Exchange Law is enforced.
                          Interest Rates, Myanmar, 2008-2011
                                                                                            Recent Developments in Banking Sector
                    18%                                                              Nov 2011    Introduction of ATM cards
                    16%
Lending Rates (%)




                                                                                     Jan 2012    Launch of international money transfer service
                    14%
                                                                                     Feb 2012    Increase limit of foreign exchange amount
                    12%
                                                                                                 Introduction of cross-bank foreign currency transactions
                    10%
                     8%                                                              Apr 2012    Official float of the Kyat
                     6%                                                              Jul 2012    Opening of foreign currency account for local and foreign
                     4%                                                                          individuals and companies
                     2%                                                              Aug 2012    Introduction of Letter of Credit
                     0%                                                                          Launch of Giro Billing Payment System and debit cards
                            2008     2009         2010    2011      2012
                                                                                     Sep 2012    Launch of Myanmar Payment Union card
                Fixed Deposit      Lending Rate      Savings      Bond (3-year)                                                           Source: Frost & Sullivan.


                                                                                                                                                             7
Social Analysis
                                                                                       Household Monthly Income Distribution,
                                                                                                  Myanmar, 2011
       Labor Force, Myanmar, 2011
                                                                                   9




                                                  Number of Households (million)
                                                                                   8                                          7.69

                                                                                   7
          Services                                                                 6
           23%
                                                                                   5
                                                                                   4
      Industry
                                                                                   3                                                       2.37
        7%
                            Agriculture                                            2
                                                                                                                 1.18
                              70%                                                  1                0.35
                                                                                       0.24
                                                                                   -




• Active work force constitutes 42% of the population, mainly serving the agriculture sector.
• Majority of households (65%) earned between US$200-300.
• Around 70% of income was spent on food items, leaving small amounts for education and healthcare.

                                                                                        Source: Central Statistics Organization, Myanmar Survey Research.


                                                                                                                                                  8
Legal Risk
  Underdeveloped regulatory and legal system makes Myanmar the worst country for doing
  business
                Legal System Characteristics                                    Legal System, Myanmar, 2011

• Combination of English common law and customary                                         Judiciary
  law.
• Lack of transparency – no advance or written notice
  on changes of laws/regulations by the government
                                                                                              Supreme        Constitutional
• No guarantee of a fair trial                                         Courts Martial
                                                                                               Court           Tribunal


                  Status of Business Laws
                    • Amended version to the 1988 Law under approval
                                                                                         High Courts
Foreign Direct
                    • Redrafting Special Economic Zone Law in
 Investment           process
                    • Banking Law – in drafting process
  Finance/                                                                 Courts of Self-
                    • Foreign Exchange Management Law – in drafting
  Banking                                                                                           District Courts
                      process                                            Administered Areas
                    • Employment and Skills Development Law under
Employment/           discussion
  Labor             • Minimum Wage Law under approval
                                                                                                        Township
 Consumer           • No existing law                                                                    Courts
 Protection         • New law in drafting process

                    • No existing law                                  Law enforcement bodies:
 Intellectual
                    • New IPR to be submitted to Parliament for           State Peace and Development Council
  Property            approval
                                                                          Attorney General
                    • New Impact Assessment Law in drafting process       Supreme Court
Environment         • No pollution standards                              Police


                                                                                                                      9
Market Entry Approach




                        10
Suggested Approach for Market Entry Study

Product Market Overview                        Partnership model                             Regulatory Analysis
•Market size by segment/application            •Joint Venture opportunities                  •Import regulations
•Market size by brand                          •Distribution partner(s) identification       •Foreign investment regulations
•Market drivers and restraints                 •Partner profiling and justification          •Company act




        How to enter
                                         Market                    Partner               Regulatory             Market Entry
         Myanmar
                                        Overview                  Selection               Analysis               Options
          market


      How to compete
                                         Market                  Competitive              Customer                Product
        in Myanmar
                                        Overview                  Analysis                Analysis                Portfolio
           market


                                 Competitor Analysis                  Customer Analysis
                                 •    Product                         •   Attitude and preference
                                 •    Price                           •   Lifestyle and behaviour
                                 •    Distribution and service        •   Purchasing criteria
                                 •    Partner                         •   Market segmentation



                                                                                                                               11
Contacts




           Suwitchaya Lerswisut
           Business Development Manager, Thailand
           Tel: +66 2 637 7414 ext. 105
           Email: suwitchaya.lerswisut@frost.com




                                                    12

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Myanmar intro by frost Oct-12

  • 1. Country Overview: Myanmar Presenter: Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D. Frost& Sullivan Country Manager, Thailand Chief Representative Officer, Myanmar/ Lao/ Cambodia Head of AEC Strategy Practice, APAC
  • 3. Country Snapshot Republic of the Union of Myanmar (also known as Burma) • One of the least developed countries in the world • Abundant natural resources and cheap pool of labor • Undergoing political and economic transformation after the fall of the long ruling military regime Area Size Administrative Division • 676,578 km2 – 40th in the world • 7 regions (divisions) • Bordered with India, Bangladesh, • 7 states China, Laos, and Thailand • Capital city: Nay Pyi Taw • Commercial hub: Yangon Natural Resource Key Industries Petroleum, timber, tin, antimony, Agriculture processing, wood and zinc, copper, tungsten lead, coal, wood products, copper, tin, tungsten, marble, limestone, precious stones, iron, cement, construction materials, natural gas, hydropower pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, oil and natural gas, garments, jade, and gems 3
  • 4. Key Macroeconomic Indicators Key Macroeconomic Indicators, Myanmar, 2011 ECONOMIC POPULATION GDP (US$ Billion) 83 Population Number 54,584,650 GDP per Capita (US$) 1,325 Population Annual Growth 1.23% GDP Growth 5.5% Gender/Sex Ratio 99(M) : 100(F) Inflation Rate 5.2% Number of Households 11,826,000 Export/Import (US$ Million) 45.2/42.9 Average Household Size 4.62 Benchmark Interest Rate 12% SOCIAL - EDUCATION Lending Interest Rate 15% Working population 41.6% Exchange Rate (= US$ 1) MMK825 Unemployment rate 5% Consumer Confidence N.A. Poverty rate 32.7 % Consumer Price Index 163.32 Human Development Index 0.48 (rank 149/187) FINANCIAL Gender Inequality Index 0.492 Country Income Profile Low income Poverty Line MMK754 per day MOTORIZATION Income share of Highest/Lowest 10% 32.4%/2.8% No. of Vehicles/1000 persons 7 FUEL COST Drive LHD/RHD Type Gasoline Diesel CNG Emission Requirement N.A. Ratio 1 1.1 - Paved Road 21% Price US$4.30/gallon US$4.73/gallon US$0.33/Kg Source: CSO, CIA World Factbook, UNDP, Frost & Sullivan. 4
  • 5. Political Risk Among the top countries exposed to rapid and sudden changes of government policies Political System, Myanmar, 2011 • The new government, which took power in Myanmar Mar 2011, ended a 23-year military regime. Government 2008 Constitution • Several efforts have been made towards democracy, most notably the release of opposition party leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and more recently, the reshuffle of the Executive Legislative Judiciary cabinet to include more reformists. Union Assembly Main Issues to Address President (Pyidaungsu Supreme Court Hluttaw) • Deficient democracy • Infrastructure development House of Nationalities • Special economic zones (Amyotha Hluttaw) • Education and health • Human rights abuses House of Representatives • Weak regulatory and legal system (Pyithu Hluttaw) • Corruption • Child labour and forced labour • Environmental issues Ranked 2 out of top 20 countries in the world with highest political risks in 2012 according to Maplecroft’s Political Risk • Release of political prisoners (Dynamic) Index. • Ethnic violence Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 5
  • 6. Economic Analysis Economy is gradually picking up and expected to attain 6% growth in 2012 GDP (PPP), Myanmar, 2007-2011 GDP by Sector, Myanmar, 2011 GDP GDP Growth 90 83 14 12.0 77 80 72 12 GDP (PPP) (USD bil) 68 70 64 GDP Growth (%) Services 10 60 37% Agriculture 50 8 43% 40 5.1 5.3 5.5 6 30 3.6 Industry 4 20 20% 10 2 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: International Monetary Fund. GDP per Capita, Myanmar, 2007-2011 1,400 1,325 GDP (PPP) per • Myanmar’s GDP grew the highest in past 5 years, Capita (USD) 1,300 1,255 crossing US$ 80 billion in 2011. 1,201 1,200 1,153 • Biggest contribution came from Agriculture and 1,111 Services sectors. 1,100 • GDP per capita in 2011 was US$ 1,325 (almost 20% 1,000 growth from 2007 figure). 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6
  • 7. Economic Analysis Rapid developments to set banking sector ready for AEC in 2015 Banking Sector Structure, Myanmar, 2011 • Myanmar’s antiquated banking sector has gradually opened up since the new civilian government took control in 2011, allowing the establishment of more domestic private banks and Central Bank of representative offices of international banks and financial Myanmar institutions. • However, foreign banks are still not allowed to offer banking services. They will only be able to form joint ventures in 2014. Government Overseas • Interest rates have been made in line with other ASEAN countries Private Banks to raise national competitiveness. Banks Banks (19) (4) (23) • FEC, which has been used as a substitute for US dollar in the country, is expected to be terminated by end of 2012 when the new Foreign Exchange Law is enforced. Interest Rates, Myanmar, 2008-2011 Recent Developments in Banking Sector 18% Nov 2011 Introduction of ATM cards 16% Lending Rates (%) Jan 2012 Launch of international money transfer service 14% Feb 2012 Increase limit of foreign exchange amount 12% Introduction of cross-bank foreign currency transactions 10% 8% Apr 2012 Official float of the Kyat 6% Jul 2012 Opening of foreign currency account for local and foreign 4% individuals and companies 2% Aug 2012 Introduction of Letter of Credit 0% Launch of Giro Billing Payment System and debit cards 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sep 2012 Launch of Myanmar Payment Union card Fixed Deposit Lending Rate Savings Bond (3-year) Source: Frost & Sullivan. 7
  • 8. Social Analysis Household Monthly Income Distribution, Myanmar, 2011 Labor Force, Myanmar, 2011 9 Number of Households (million) 8 7.69 7 Services 6 23% 5 4 Industry 3 2.37 7% Agriculture 2 1.18 70% 1 0.35 0.24 - • Active work force constitutes 42% of the population, mainly serving the agriculture sector. • Majority of households (65%) earned between US$200-300. • Around 70% of income was spent on food items, leaving small amounts for education and healthcare. Source: Central Statistics Organization, Myanmar Survey Research. 8
  • 9. Legal Risk Underdeveloped regulatory and legal system makes Myanmar the worst country for doing business Legal System Characteristics Legal System, Myanmar, 2011 • Combination of English common law and customary Judiciary law. • Lack of transparency – no advance or written notice on changes of laws/regulations by the government Supreme Constitutional • No guarantee of a fair trial Courts Martial Court Tribunal Status of Business Laws • Amended version to the 1988 Law under approval High Courts Foreign Direct • Redrafting Special Economic Zone Law in Investment process • Banking Law – in drafting process Finance/ Courts of Self- • Foreign Exchange Management Law – in drafting Banking District Courts process Administered Areas • Employment and Skills Development Law under Employment/ discussion Labor • Minimum Wage Law under approval Township Consumer • No existing law Courts Protection • New law in drafting process • No existing law Law enforcement bodies: Intellectual • New IPR to be submitted to Parliament for State Peace and Development Council Property approval Attorney General • New Impact Assessment Law in drafting process Supreme Court Environment • No pollution standards Police 9
  • 11. Suggested Approach for Market Entry Study Product Market Overview Partnership model Regulatory Analysis •Market size by segment/application •Joint Venture opportunities •Import regulations •Market size by brand •Distribution partner(s) identification •Foreign investment regulations •Market drivers and restraints •Partner profiling and justification •Company act How to enter Market Partner Regulatory Market Entry Myanmar Overview Selection Analysis Options market How to compete Market Competitive Customer Product in Myanmar Overview Analysis Analysis Portfolio market Competitor Analysis Customer Analysis • Product • Attitude and preference • Price • Lifestyle and behaviour • Distribution and service • Purchasing criteria • Partner • Market segmentation 11
  • 12. Contacts Suwitchaya Lerswisut Business Development Manager, Thailand Tel: +66 2 637 7414 ext. 105 Email: suwitchaya.lerswisut@frost.com 12