The document outlines three scenarios for future urban development: 1) "Gulliver's World" - cities develop unevenly, with a prosperous core and struggling fringe as basic challenges persist for most. 2) "Massive socio-technical revolution" - a period of decline and upheaval leads to new green, smarter cities with improved quality of life for all. 3) "Triumph of the Triads" - rapid climate change causes infrastructure breakdown and urban tribalism increases as people rely on local warlords for services in a global age of instability.

1. The Future of Cities:
Three scenarios for urban futures
A project by the Oxford Programme for the Future of Cities
Presented by:
Noah Raford, DUSP, MIT
nraford@mit.edu

2. 2.1 billion more in cities

3. Mostly young

4. Most in slums

5. Increasing complexity

6. Decreasing resources

7. + Uncertainty
The future
Complexity
Risk Future 2
Past trends Future 3
Certainty
- Rate of change + Past Present Future
Scenarios: planning for change

8. 23 interviews world wide
• Architecture
• Commercial tenants
• Entrepreneurship
• Environment
• Governance
• Infrastructure
• Non-governmental organisations
• Planning
• Real estate
• Technology

9. Drivers of change
Growing income inequality
Lack of capital availability
Role of centralized governance
Infrastructure decay
Lifestyle change & value shifts
Resource shortages

10. Economic
• Increased division of wealth between rich and poor
• The world’s poor are an increasingly powerful force in urban development
• Current urban development models not t for their emergent needs
• Global warming will disproportionately effect the poor
• International nance will become more important, domestic capital less
• International nance will become more selective, comparing between cities
• Taxation will continue to be a strong determinant of capital ows
• New ecological accounting mechanisms will play an increasing role in real estate
nance and development
• Building obsolescence will become an increasingly important factor

11. Political
• Most city governments will lack the resources to meet increasing citizens
demands
• Weaken central government and open room for other players
• Civil society and community based organisations will be the rst to ll this role
• Bottom-up participatory approaches to development and management will
become important
• Local government will need to shift from regulation to enabling and facilitating
• Boundaries of where city authorities ends will blur, administrative implications are
unclear
• Grassroots' innovation could lead to transformational change
• Insecurity more important factor, with high unemployment and economic, political
and environmental migration

12. Cultural
• Need for new types of education / consciousness change
• Increased social fragmentation as people cling to their identities
• Increasing fragmentation of commercial and social services
• The youth will play a powerful role in urban governance
• Need to strike a balance between short term pro t and growth and long term
needs
• Increasing complexity calls for new kinds of leadership

13. Environmental
• Water will become an ever increasing problem
• Droughts in rural areas will drive people to urban areas
• Global warming and extreme weather will impact urban development
• Most cities have very poor emergency preparedness for environmental disasters
and will be blindsided by change
• Disease return to rst world cities
• May have to consider abandoning cities

14. Technological
• ICT will enable acceleration of social dynamics already in place
• Could have signi cant destabilising effects through asymmetric warfare, etc.
• May allow for breakthroughs in decentralised infrastructure and governance
• ICT enables relocation of activities, such as public administration
• ICT will enable more social surveillance and government control

15. Workshop
Learning journey
Driver identi cation
Sorting key drivers
Scenario snippets
Fleshing out and exploring
implications
Systems mapping
Deeping scenarios

17. Gulliver’s Massive socio- Triumph of the
World technical revolution Triads

18. Scenario 1:
Gulliver’s World

19. Two worlds in one

20. A core of new eco-prosperity

21. A fringe of stagnation & struggle

22. Smarter cities & transport

23. But persistent basic challenges

24. Broader global leadership

25. But increasing fragmentation

26. Higher quality of life for some

27. But increasing exclusion for most

28. Scenario 2:
Massive socio-technical revolution

29. A decade of decline

30. Producing social tension

31. Followed by a devastating blow

32. Leading to a youth uprising

33. And a new generation of leaders

34. Who push through new agreements

35. Creating global climate stabilization

36. And smarter, greener cities

37. With local food economies

38. Increased “soft wealth”

39. And greater quality-of-life for all

40. Scenario 3:
Triumph of the Triad’s

41. Rapid, distruptive climate change

42. Market failures multiply

43. International aid falters

44. Con ict and migration ensues

45. Breakdown of critical infrastructure

46. Leads a harsh return to self-suf ciency

47. Urban tribalism increases

48. Leading to new “family values”

49. Warlord tax collectors provide service

50. For a global age of muddling through

51. For more information visit:
The Oxford Programme for the Future of Cities
http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/centres/insis/research/Pages/future-
cities.aspx