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Seng Heng Bank – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics
              誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心

財來自有方
                           刊登日期:二零零八年十月廿八日 (澳門日報)


           作者為誠興銀行投資及風險研究中心分析師黃碩東



                     從美國個人消費看經濟

去年美國次按問題開始浮現,很多評論也認為新興市場等地可以獨善其身, 但事實証
明只有滯後效應. 新興市場過去確幾年的確是經濟增長快速,但增長很大程度是出口
到美國或是歐洲,而美國現時仍然佔全球 GDP 達 2 成以上,在全球經濟一體化的今天,
美國出事勢必打擊全球經濟. 而個人消費佔美國 GDP 達 7 成,所以在這次金融海嘯
後,美國人消費模式的轉變將會成為未來經濟能否快速回復的一個重要關鍵.

美國過去幾十年之經濟增長動力主要來自個人消費.就算是在經濟衰退時,個人消費
之增長也很快從拾升軌. 筆者認為這與個人儲蓄率不斷下降不無關係. 眾所週知美
國人不愛儲蓄愛消費. 於80年代初儲蓄對可支配收入比率大約是10%,期間不斷下跌,
時至今天這個比率已經下降至約0%. 這表明過去之個人消費增長除了是工資上升外,
某程度上是來自居民儲蓄率下降,而將這些錢用於消費,支持經濟快速復甦.

除了以上所說的可支配收入為美國人消費之主要來源外,樓宇加按及借貸也是近年
美國人的開支來源. 過去由於美國之樓價年年上漲及低長期貸款息率,將樓宇加按
成為美國人持續高消費之重要資金來源,但美國樓市不跌之神話於06年破滅,
次按泡沫爆破,新樓宇動工及銷售均屢創十多年新低,相信現時離樓市見底之期
還沒到.據資料顯示,05至07年美國之樓宇加按金額分別為5950億,7568億,及4712億
美元,佔同期美國經濟增長達2-3%.但進入08年,第一季及第二季之金額只有487億及
95億美元.由此可預期於加按所帶來之經濟增長將大幅減少.而於借貸方面, 許多銀
行已經慢慢收緊客戶之信用額度, 8月份之個人消費信貸更出現約十年來首次負增
長., 可見由信貸而拉動之消費也將減少.
由上述分析可見,美國人現時的消費來源均正在減少. 其儲蓄對可支配收入比率也可
能因這次金融海嘯而上升. 消費減慢將對美國經濟構成重大打擊, 而全球經濟也不能
獨善其身.

                   讀者如有任何意見可電郵至: feedback@stshb.com

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  • 1. Seng Heng Bank – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics 誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心 財來自有方 刊登日期:二零零八年十月廿八日 (澳門日報) 作者為誠興銀行投資及風險研究中心分析師黃碩東 從美國個人消費看經濟 去年美國次按問題開始浮現,很多評論也認為新興市場等地可以獨善其身, 但事實証 明只有滯後效應. 新興市場過去確幾年的確是經濟增長快速,但增長很大程度是出口 到美國或是歐洲,而美國現時仍然佔全球 GDP 達 2 成以上,在全球經濟一體化的今天, 美國出事勢必打擊全球經濟. 而個人消費佔美國 GDP 達 7 成,所以在這次金融海嘯 後,美國人消費模式的轉變將會成為未來經濟能否快速回復的一個重要關鍵. 美國過去幾十年之經濟增長動力主要來自個人消費.就算是在經濟衰退時,個人消費 之增長也很快從拾升軌. 筆者認為這與個人儲蓄率不斷下降不無關係. 眾所週知美 國人不愛儲蓄愛消費. 於80年代初儲蓄對可支配收入比率大約是10%,期間不斷下跌, 時至今天這個比率已經下降至約0%. 這表明過去之個人消費增長除了是工資上升外, 某程度上是來自居民儲蓄率下降,而將這些錢用於消費,支持經濟快速復甦. 除了以上所說的可支配收入為美國人消費之主要來源外,樓宇加按及借貸也是近年 美國人的開支來源. 過去由於美國之樓價年年上漲及低長期貸款息率,將樓宇加按 成為美國人持續高消費之重要資金來源,但美國樓市不跌之神話於06年破滅, 次按泡沫爆破,新樓宇動工及銷售均屢創十多年新低,相信現時離樓市見底之期 還沒到.據資料顯示,05至07年美國之樓宇加按金額分別為5950億,7568億,及4712億 美元,佔同期美國經濟增長達2-3%.但進入08年,第一季及第二季之金額只有487億及 95億美元.由此可預期於加按所帶來之經濟增長將大幅減少.而於借貸方面, 許多銀 行已經慢慢收緊客戶之信用額度, 8月份之個人消費信貸更出現約十年來首次負增 長., 可見由信貸而拉動之消費也將減少.