1.
Why your Sentiment is Wrong
A Statistical Analysis of the Sentiment Task
T.R. Fitz-Gibbon — Chief Scientist
Text Analytics Summit May, 2011

2.
Subjectivity
“There is no true interpretation of
anything; interpretation is a vehicle in
the service of human comprehension.
The value of interpretation is in enabling
others to fruitfully think about an idea.”
- Andreas Buja
2 © 2011 Networked Insights

3.
Subjectivity
Subject: iPhone 4 battery life, not so good?
“I would never get 7 “Anyway 5 hours is
hours just browsing enough for me. It was
with Wi-Fi. Not even 6 enough with 3GS.
hours. I think my Maybe with next iPhone
record has been 5 I will have better luck
hours 30 minutes with the battery.”
something.”
3 © 2011 Networked Insights

4.
Sentiment Analysis vs. Semantic Analysis
Sentiment Analysis Semantic Analysis
Ignores most Data Analyzes all Data
Results Determined Results Determined
by Chance by Data
High Subjective Error Communicates
Subjectivity
4 © 2011 Networked Insights

5.
The Sentiment Task
Natural Language Processing Manual Analysis by Experts
Sentiment
Analysis
Machine Learning Manual Analysis by Crowdsourcing
Positive
Negative
Neutral
5 © 2011 Networked Insights

6.
The Sentiment Task
Natural Language Processing Manual Analysis by Experts
Sentiment
Analysis
Machine Learning Manual Analysis by Crowdsourcing
Happy
Sad
Indifferent
6 © 2011 Networked Insights

7.
The Sentiment Task
Natural Language Processing Manual Analysis by Experts
Sentiment
Analysis
Machine Learning Manual Analysis by Crowdsourcing
Intends to Purchase
Intends to Renew
Intends to Cancel
7 © 2011 Networked Insights

8.
Why Sentiment Fails
Causes Effects
1. Narrow view of meaning - Ignores data
2. Low statistical confidence - Results left up to chance
8 © 2011 Networked Insights

9.
1. Why Sentiment Fails - Narrow View of Meaning
Percentage of posts that contain sentiment
Data is based on a 500-post
sentiment study we
conducted around
smartphones. The posts were
classified by 20 people each.
Posts were assigned to a
sentiment category based
on a majority vote.
Only about 10% of posts
were found to contain
sentiment.
9 © 2011 Networked Insights

10.
2. Why Sentiment Fails - Statistical Confidence
10 © 2011 Networked Insights

11.
2. Why Sentiment Fails - Statistical Confidence
11 © 2011 Networked Insights

12.
2. Why Sentiment Fails - Statistical Confidence
12 © 2011 Networked Insights

13.
2. Why Sentiment Fails - Statistical Confidence
13 © 2011 Networked Insights

14.
2. Why Sentiment Fails - Statistical Confidence
14 © 2011 Networked Insights

15.
2. Why Sentiment Fails - Statistical Confidence
15 © 2011 Networked Insights

16.
2. Why Sentiment Fails - Statistical Confidence
Confidence intervals for a sample of four readers
When three out of four readers
agree on the sentiment of a post,
we can only be 35% confident
that a majority of all readers
would agree.
Normally, statistical significance
at the 95% level is desired (for
research and opinion polls). This
example is only statistically
significant at the 35% level.
Thus, in this case we have not
yet sampled enough readers to
concluded that we know the
sentiment of this post.
16 © 2011 Networked Insights

17.
2. Why Sentiment Fails - Statistical Confidence
Inter-Reader Agreement Sample Size 95% Confidence
90% < 10
75% ~ 20
65% ~ 50
55% ~ 500
17 © 2011 Networked Insights

18.
Why Sentiment Fails - Putting it all Together
x 10^4
Expected Outcome
Correct
of
Value
Sentiment Analysis
(Positive) Sentiment as a Percent
18 © 2011 Networked Insights

19.
What is the Alternative
Semantic Analysis
Topic Discovery
Topic Trending
19 © 2011 Networked Insights

20.
Topic Discovery - Apple Topic Tree
20 © 2011 Networked Insights

21.
Topic Discovery - Apple Topic Tree
21 © 2011 Networked Insights

22.
Topic Trending - Apple
”iPhone Problems" and “Support" are
both high before “Back to the Mac" and
quite low after
Support, Apple Products Conversation becomes all
about buying iPhones and Mac
Problem iPhone
Buy iPhone
Volume
Mac OS, Mac Pro
Apple's big "Back to
the Mac" event
The tail end of antenna-gate, signal issues,
22 glass cracking, daylight savings bug © 2011 Networked Insights

23.
Topic Trending - Moms and CPG
“baby, baby clothes” Moms discussing fabric care “saving money” drives
this acceleration around
experiences a lone “cloth diapers”
spike around Christmas
23 © 2011 Networked Insights

24.
Sentiment Analysis vs. Semantic Analysis
Sentiment Analysis Semantic Analysis Semantic Value
Ignores most Data Analyzes all Data Understand the Entire
Conversation
Results Determined Results Determined Understand the Actual
by Chance by Data Conversation
Communicates Actually Understand
High Subjective Error
the Conversation
Subjectivity
24 © 2011 Networked Insights

25.
What if I need Sentiment Analysis
3 Questions to Ask your Provider:
• What is the inter-reader agreement of your manually
scored sentiment data?
• When you manually score/label posts with sentiment, to how
many readers do you give each post?
• For what type of posts was your solution designed and tested?
25 © 2011 Networked Insights

26.
We fuel insights, helping brands and their
agencies make better marketing decisions.
T.R. Fitz-Gibbon, Chief Scientist Founded in 2006 by industry leaders and
608-237-1867 seasoned entrepreneurs in the fields of social
tr.fitzgibbon@networkedinsights.com media and customer intelligence.
Headquartered in Madison, WI, with offices
networkedinsights.com in New York and Chicago.