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PERSPECTIVAS DE LA ECONOMIA PERUANA ANTE LA RECESION MUNDIAL

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Conferencia a la alta Gerencia de Intergroup en Lima el 22 de abril , 2009 sobre perspectivas de las economias mundial y peruana y oportunidades de inversion en bolsa

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LA ECONOMIA PERUANA ANTE LAS PERSPECTIVAS DE LA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL PRESENTACION A INTERBANK 21 de abril , 2009 Ricardo Lago Economist and Consultant Former Senior of the EBRD, The World Bank , IADB Former Director of Economic Policy of the Treasury of Mexico
ESTRUCTURA DE LA PRESENTACION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
I.PANORAMA INTERNACIONAL
BAIL OUTS
MONETARY STIMULUS
FISCAL STIMULUS
PREDICCION DEL CRECIMIENTO 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PROYECCION DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object]
TWO ERAS OF UNPRECEDENTED PROSPERITY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
STRONG INNOVATIONS are the drivers of PROSPERITY BOOMS that end in EVENTUAL BUSTS
II.ESTIMULOS FISCAL Y MONETARIO
MONETARY STIMULUS
TRIVIA QUESTION ,[object Object]
ANSWER ,[object Object],[object Object]
Vernon Smith , Nobel Laureate to WSJ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MACROECONOMICS 101 – MONEY SUPPLY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW WITH MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MACROECONOMICS 101 THE QUANTITY EQUATION OF MONEY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FISCAL ESTIMULUS
MACROECONOMICS 101 FISCAL POLICY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FISCAL STIMULUS INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Everet Dirksen’s famous quote Republican Senator from Illinois 1932-69 ,[object Object],[object Object]
DOES IT MEAN THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STIMULUS IN THE USA SO FAR ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THE DOWNSIDE OF MORE BUDGET DEFICITS IS THE LONG RUN SOLVENCY PROBLEM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THE PUBLIC DEBT BUILD UP IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THE PROBLEM IS THE DEBT
[object Object]
BERNIE MADOFF
THE WAY OUT OF THE RECESSION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THE WAY OUT OF THE RECESSION : THE RAZOR BLADE PATH PROBLEM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DURATION OF THREE LONGEST RECESSIONS SINCE 1929 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1929 -1933 Collapse of Word Trade
THE SMOOT-HOWLEY ACT OF 1930 Willis Hawley, a congressman from Oregon, and Reed Smoot, a senator from Utah
HOW LONG WILL THE CURRENT RECESSION LAST? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
III.DONDE INVERTIR
WHERE DO I PUT MY MONEY ?
Ranking of currencies with better to worse perspectives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Best Stock markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Treasury Bills ,[object Object],[object Object]
I WOULD GO FOR THIS PORTFOLIO ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
STOCK MARKETS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WHY ARE STOCKS MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WHY ARE US STOCKS MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WHY ARE US STOCKS MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
LET ME USE AN EXAMPLE
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THEN WE GET ….
 
And where are we now ?
SO WHY ARE US AND OTHER STOCKS MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
IV.PERSPECTIVAS DE LA ECONOMIA PERUANA
EL DECALOGO ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ QUO VADIS” ECONOMIA PERUANA ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
INDICE DE LA BOLSA DE VALORES DE LIMA ,[object Object]
PRECIOS DEL COBRE
PERSPECTIVAS DEL PRECIO DEL COBRE INDICADORES TECNICOS
 
 
 
 
EL DECALOGO ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A algunos se les esta acabando la municion , el BCR y el MEF todavia tienen balas en la cartuchera
EL TIPO DE CAMBIO ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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