1. Examination Committee :
Dr. Sangam Shrestha (Chairperson)
Dr. Roberto Clemente (Member)
Dr. Sylvain Roger Perret (Member)
1

2.  To analyze the future temperature and precipitation
patterns.
 To estimate the future yield and net irrigation water
requirements at different growth stages of rice
under climate change scenarios.
 To evaluate adaptations for rice production
Objectives
2

3. SittaungRiver
17.00゜
17.50゜
96.00
゜
97.00
゜
96.50
゜
Ngamoeyeik
Reservoir
Hmawbi
Yango
n
Location - 16° 50’ N and 17° 30’ N of latitude
- 96° 00’ E and 96° 30’ E of longitude
Irrigated Area - 28330 ha
Average annual Rainfall - 2700 mm
Study Area
3

4. Metrological Data
(Temperature/Precipitation)
Predictant
GCM data HadCM3 (A2, B2)
and ECHAM 5 (A2, A1B)
(Predictor)
Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)
Version 4.2.9
Output: Future Precipitation and Temperature
(Objective 1)
To analyze future precipitation and temperature
under climate change scenarios: A2, A1B and B2
4

5. To analyze future yield and net irrigation water
requirement under climate change
Meteorological data obtained
from objective 1
Simulate irrigation water requirement
for paddy for the future periods of
2020, 2050 and 2080
`(Objective 2)
Soil Data Crop DataManagement
Apply ETo Calculator to
calculate reference crop
evapotranspiration, ETo
with the climate change
parameters obtained from
objective 1
5
AquaCrop model
Irrigation Practice Field Practice

6. Comparison of monthly precipitation between historical period
and projected periods
6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyPrecipitation(mm)
HadCM3 A2
Observed
2020s
2050s
2080s
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyPrecipitation(mm)
ECHAM 5 A2Observed
2020s
2050s
2080s
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyPrecipitation(mm)
ECHAM 5 A1B
Observed
2020s
2050s
2080s
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyPrecipitation(mm)
HadCM3 B2Observed
2020s
2050s
2080s

7. GCM Time Period
Precipitation (mm)
Baseline
(1961-1990)
Scenario A2 Scenario B2
Precipitatio
n
(mm)
Change
(%)
Precipitation
(mm)
Change
(%)
2020s
2700
3095 +14.5 3076 +13.8
HadCM3 2050s 3238 +19.8 3233 +19.7
2080s 3479 +28.8 3229 +19.5
GCM Time Period
Baseline
(1961-1990)
Scenario A2 Scenario A1B
Precipitatio
n
(mm)
Change
(%)
Precipitation
(mm)
Change
(%)
ECHAM5
2020s
2700
3273 +21.2 2290 -15.2
2050s 3172 +17.5 2069 -23.4
2080s 3088 +14.4 1925 -28.7
Comparison of monthly precipitation between historical period
and projected periods
7

8. Comparison of monthly Maximum Temperature between
historical period and Projected periods
8
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyTmax(C)
Month
HadCM3 A2
2020s
2050s
2080s
Observed
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyTmax(C)
Month
HadCM3 B2
2020s
2050s
2080s
Observed
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyTmax(C)
Month
ECHAM 5 A1B
2020s
2050s
2080s
Observed
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyTmax(C)
Month
ECHAM 5 A2
2020s
2050s
2080s
Observed

9. 9
Comparison of monthly Maximum Temperatures between
historical period and Projected periods
GCM Time Period
Maximum Temperature (Tmax) (C)
Baseline
(1961-1990)
Scenario A2 Scenario B2
Tmax Change Tmax Change
2020s
32.7
32.2 -0.5 32.2 -0.5
HadCM3 2050s 32.2 -0.5 32.3 -0.6
2080s 32.2 -0.5 32.2 -0.5
GCM Time Period
Baseline
(1961-1990)
Scenario A2 Scenario A1B
Tmax Change Tmax Change
ECHAM5
2020s
32.7
32.5 -0.2 32.5 -0.2
2050s 32.6 -0.1 32.6 -0.1
2080s 32.7 0 32.8 +0.1

10. Comparison of monthly minimum temperature between
historical period and Projected periods with A2 scenario
10
15
18
21
24
27
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyTmin(C)
Month
HadCM3 A2
2020s
2050s
2080s
Observed
15
18
21
24
27
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyTmin(C)
Month
HadCM3 B2
2020s
2050s
2080s
Observed
15
18
21
24
27
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyTmin(C)
Month
ECHAM5 A2
2020s
2050s
2080s
Observed
15
18
21
24
27
J F M A M J J A S O N D
MeanMonthlyTmin(C)
Month
ECHAM 5 A1B
2020s
2050s
2080s
Observed

11. Comparison of monthly minimum temperature between
historical period and Projected periods
11
GCM Time Period
Minimum Temperature (Tmin) (C)
Baseline
(1961-1990)
Scenario A2 Scenario B2
Tmin Change Tmin Change
2020s
22.2
22.4 +0.2 22.4 +0.2
HadCM3 2050s 22.4 +0.2 22.4 +0.2
2080s 22.4 +0.2 22.4 +0.2
GCM Time Period
Baseline
(1961-1990)
Scenario A2 Scenario A1B
Tmin Change Tmin Change
ECHAM5
2020s
22.2
22.6 +0.4 22.5 +0.3
2050s 22.6 +0.4 22.5 +0.3
2080s 22.5 +0.3 22.6 +0.4

12. 3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Eto(mm/day)
Month
Based Line A2 A1B B2
Comparison of evapotranspiration between historical
period and Projected periods
12

13. 13
Comparison of monthly precipitation at different growth stages of
summer paddy
0
10
20
30
40
50
D J F M A
MeanMonthly
Precipitation(mm)
Month
ECHAM 5 A1B
0
10
20
30
40
50
D J F M A
MeanMonthly
Precipitaion(mm)
Month
HadCM3 B2
120 Days
Reproductive
Stage
Vegetative
Stage
Ripening
Stage
0
10
20
30
40
50
D J F M A
MeanMonthly
Precipitation(mm)
Month
ECHAM 5 A2
Observed 2020s 2050s 2080s

14. 14
Comparison of monthly maximum temperatures at different growth
stages of summer paddy
30
32
34
36
38
D J F M A MMonth
ECHAM5 A1B
30
32
34
36
38
D J F M A MMonth
HadCM3 B2
30
32
34
36
38
D J F M A MMonth
ECHAM5 A2
2020s 2050s 2080s Observed
MeanMonthlyTmax(C)
120 Days
Reproductive
Stage
Vegetative
Stage
Ripening
Stage

15. 15
Comparison of monthly minimum temperature at different growth
stages of summer paddy
15
20
25
30
D J F M A MMonth
ECHAM5 A2
2020s 2050s 2080s Observed
15
20
25
30
D J F M A MMonth
ECHAM5 A1B
15
20
25
30
D J F M A M
Month
HadCM3 B2
MeanMonthlyTmin(C)
Reproductive
Stage
Vegetative
Stage
Ripening
Stage
120 Days

16. Comparison of yields between historical period and projected
periods under climate scenarios
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
A1B A2 B2
Yield(tonha-1)
Scenarios
Base Line
2020s
2050s
2080s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
A1B A2 B2
Yield(tonha-1)
Scenarios
Base Line
2020s
2050s
2080s
Rainfed Paddy
Summer Paddy
16

17. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Netirrigationwaterrequirement
(mm)
Growth stages of paddy
A1B
2020s 2050s
2080s Based Line
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Netirrigationwaterrequirement
(mm)
Growth stages of paddy
B2
2020s 2050s
2080s Based Line
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Netirrigationwaterrequirement
(mm)
Growth stages of paddy
A2
2020s 2050s
2080s Based Line
Comparison of NWIR at different growth stages of rice between
historical period and projected periods under climate scenarios
17

18. 18
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
A2 A1B B2
Percentagechangesinyields(%)
Scenarios
2020s
+30 days
+20 days
+10 days
-10 days
-20 days
-30 days
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
A2 A1B B2
Percentagechangesinyields(%)
Scenarios
2050s
+30 days
+20 days
+10 days
-10 days
-20 days
-30 days
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
A2 A1B B2
Percentagechangesinyields(%)
Scenarios
2080s
+30 days
+20 days
+10 days
-10 days
-20 days
-30 days
Effect of changes in sowing dates on yields under different
scenarios

19. -6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
A2 A1B B2
PercentageChangesinyields(%)
Scenarios
2020
2050
2080
Effect of changes in irrigation water supply on yields under
different scenarios
19

20. Conclusions
• The simulated weather data downscaled by SDSM from GCMs HadCM3
and ECHAM5 had a good agreement with the observed data which
indicates that both models can provide accepatable weather data for the
future scenarios.
• Temperature and reference evapotranspiration will decrease however
precipitation will increase under A2, A1B and B2 scenarios in the study area.
• Aquacrop model performed satisfactorily in the study area.
• Yield is going to increase and net irrigation water requirement of rice will
tend to decrease in future.
• Management practices for adaptation measures might be conducted to
mitigate climate change impact and increase yield.
20

21. • The result of the research has revealed that temperature is going
to decrease and rainfall will increase in future. Yield will tend to
increase with the increase of rainfall and net irrigation water
requirement will decrease.
• Altering sowing dates and reducing irrigation water supply
according it the decreasing water requirement of rice can help to
increase yield and save the water supply from reservoir.
• Aquacrop being relatively a simpler model with lesser inputs can
be used for decision making and to evaluate the future impacts of
climate change.
• This study can be applied in the study area to determine the
impacts of the climate change on the rice yield and irrigation water
requirement.
Recommendation
21