India Equity Analytics highlights the JLR volume update which came in November 2013 with annual increase by 25%. The JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover.

1. IEA-Equity
Strategy
India Equity Analytics
JLR VOLUME UPDATE : NOVEMBER 2013
16th Dec, 2013
16th Dec 2013
JLR wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors come up with November 2013 volume, the company for the month sold 37403 units up by 25%
YoY. This total volume of JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover. This month’s performance in particular is marked by
stellar performance by Jaguar .................................................... ( Page : 2)
Persistent System : "Persistently innovating.."
"BUY" 13th Dec 2013
With the potential revenue growth, strong deal pipeline and multi-year relationships with marquee clientele in the Infrastructure vertical, we
upgrade this stock and expect for better earning visibility across niche IT players.we rate “BUY” on the stock and we revise our target price from
Rs 890to Rs 960. At a CMP of Rs 876, stock trades at 13.8x FY14E earnings........................ ( Page : 3-4)
COAL INDIA :
"BUY"
12th Dec 2013
We expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of poor offtake capabilities of CIL. Also, we expect CIL’s
margins to decline during FY2014 due to lower e-auction realizations and higher staff costs/other expenses.News flows related to further
divestment in CIL by the government is likely to keep the stock price under pressure in our view. we recommend Buy rating on the stock with
our previous target price Rs.350............................................ ( Page : 5-7)
LUPIN : "Optimistic Guidance "
"BUY"
11th Dec 2013
The management of the company in its latest interaction said that company is confident of logging 15-20 % CAGR in US and India in the days to
come on the back of rich pipeline as well as acquisition based strategy . ……………………………………… ( Page : 8-9)
TATA Steel Ltd :
"HOLD"
10th Dec 2013
Over the past two quarters, Tata Steel has reported strong growth in volumes in the domestic operations despite weak demand. Its Europe
operations have been broadly better than expectations indicating some stability and predictability from its Europe operations. Tata Steel’s
earnings growth is likely to be driven by higher sales volume in FY2014-15 on the back of 2.9mn ton brownfield expansion project in
Jamshedpur and steady improvement in profitability of European operations. We have arrived at "Hold" rating on the stock watching our step
for a target price of Rs.340 in near term. ................... ( Page : 10-13)
NIIT Tech : "Next Journey to Billion Dollar"
"BUY"
9th Dec 2013
NIIT Tech management expressed its confidence of driving growth in the organization and looking at an aspirational goal of USD 1 billion
revenue in next 5 years.its order wins in the recent quarters have been healthy, lending visibility on revenue growth. At a CMP of Rs332, trades
at 7.5x FY14E earnings. We retain “ buy” view on the stock with a price target of Rs360 (revised from Rs310)............................................. (
Page : 14- 15)
Amara Raja Batteries Limited : OPTIMISTIC MANAGEMENT SPEECH "BUY"
6th Dec 2013
Amara Raja had posted its 2QYFY14 sales at Rs 805 Cr up by 12.3 % YoY on the back of the strong demand in the automotive replacement and
industrial battery business. There was double digit growth in both of these segments.The automotive battery business reported double digit
growth in revenues........................................ ( Page : 16-17)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
402, 4th floor 7/1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
email: research@narnolia.com, website : www.narnolia.com

2. JLR VOLUME UPDATE : NOVEMBER 2013
Strong Performance For The Month.
JLR wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors come up with November 2013 volume, the
company for the month sold 37403 units up by 25% YoY. This total volume of JLR includes
6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover. This month’s performance in particular is
marked by stellar performance by Jaguar with volume growth of almost 55 % YoY while the
Land Rover portfolio has grown by 20 % YoY.The new F type Jaguar is getting good
response.Company manage to sell 557 units of F-Type this month.
The volumes for JLR across geographies came relatively, good all the geographies have
done well except for UK where volume de grew by 1%YoY. The markets of china continues
to do well for the company. The Chinese market have grown over 40% YoY for the JLR
followed by ROW markets.
The performance of JLR on Geography Wise has been Tabulated as under :
Monthly Performance of JLR : Geography Wise
Model
Nov-13
Nov-12
Change % (YoY)
UK
5231
5276
-1%
North America
6657
4843
37%
Europe
7300
6829
7%
China
9751
6879
42%
Asia Pacific
1882
1428
32%
All other markets
6582
4638
42%
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
The various models under JLR portfolio have grown well for the company however Jaguar
XJmodel has done exceptionally well .The company has sold 6244 units of Jaguar for the
Nov2013.The Land Rover is also growing good for the company. The Range Rover Evoque has
grown by 10% YoY to 10953 units for the month.
The Table shows the Performance of Jaguar Portfolio : Model Wise.
Monthly Performance of Jaguar : Model Wise
Model
Nov-13
Nov-12
Change % (YoY)
XF
3825
2743
39%
XJ
1628
1004
62%
XK
234
284
-18%
F-TYPE
557
NA
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
The Table shows the Performance of Land Rover Portfolio : Model Wise.
Monthly Performance of Land Rover: Model Wise
Model
Nov-13
Nov-12
Change % (YoY)
Defender
1615
1274
27%
Freelander
4124
4517
-9%
Discovery
3424
3683
-7%
New Range Rover Sport
6833
0
NA
Range Rover Sport
106
4909
NA
Range Rover
2
1417
NA
Range Rover Evoque
10953
9919
10%
New Range Rover
4102
143
NA
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Earlier management said that company would invest 1.5 billion pounds for new technicallyadvanced aluminum vehicle architecture in forthcoming models. The first new model to
utilize this innovative architecture will be an all-new mid-sized sports sedan from Jaguar.
The product will be launched by 2015.
We continue to like Tata Motors, led by strong volume traction at JLR to continue over the
coming months as new Range Rover Sport get rolled out across more geographies, in
addition to continued traction from RR and F-Type, which in turn will boost realisation and
margin.
The stock is trading at price of Rs 370 on the back of splendid performance from its cash
machine JLR portfolio. We are still positive for the stock in the light of management
commentary and continuous good performance by JLR though domestic operations are still
painful for the company.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

3. Persistent System.
"BUY"
13th Dec' 13
"Persistently innovating.."
Company update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
BUY
876
960
890
10%
8%
533179
PERSISTENT
906/477
3505
12139
6237
Stock Performance
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
7.5
4.9
1yr
83.5
77.8
YTD
126.6
107.9
Share Holding Pattern-%
Current
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
38.96
15.28
21.23
24.53
1 year forward P/E-x
1QFY14 4QFY13
38.96
14.84
19.31
26.89
38.96
12.39
21.59
27.06
Persistent Sytem’s management remains confident of FY14 with deal pipeline being
strong and remains focused on increasing the share of IP-led revenues in its portfolio.
The management expects to see more than 15% dollar revenue growth, more than
NASSCOM guidance of 12-14 % for FY14E.
With the potential revenue growth, strong deal pipeline and multi-year relationships
with marquee clientele in the Infrastructure vertical, we upgrade this stock and expect
for better earning visibility across niche IT players.
Recently , Persistent System reported superlative set of numbers during the 2QFY14
with 21%(QoQ) sales growth in INR term and 8.6%(QoQ) growth in USD term led by
38%(QOQ) growth on the intellectual property (IP) revenues. PAT growth was at 6.5%
(QoQ).
Margin ramp up: During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 180bps to 23.3%,
positively impacted by currency gain(270bps), while during the quarter company wage
hike to its off shore employee at a range of 8-9% was impacted margin by 310 bps
adversely. However, management expects to maintain margin at a range of 24-25% for
FY14E.
On segmental front: The Company’s cash cow segment Infrastructure and System,
which contributes 69% on sales, grew by 21% and life science (13% contribution on
sales) was up by 57% sequentially. While, Telecom space (17.6% contribution on sales)
increased marginally by 3% (QoQ).
Clients Metrics: During the quarter, company added 2 clients at 32 under medium
category( >$1mn to $3mn) and 1 client at 16 from large ( > $ 3Mn) . Revenue from top-1
client was improved from 21.2% (1QFY14) to 22.5% . DSO at 62days, almost 12
quarters low.
Persistent's management suggests that deal pipeline are looking strong and seeing
good activity and traction in the market across the board. Its focus on some of newer
technologies like cloud, analytics and mobility are gaining a lot of traction because of
pickup in demand environment. The emerging themes, (CAMB) Cloud, Analytics,
Mobility, and Big data could also see strong demand traction ahead. Because of
actively investment in these themes, management is very confident to see healthy
growth and also they expressed their confidence to beat the NASSCOM guidance (1214% revenue growth for FY14E).
View and Valuation: The company’s focus is shifting greater proportion to IP led services
and company has marquee clientele in cutting-edge technologies around cloud,
mobility, collaboration and analytics; witnessing faster growth. Considering the
company’s ability to achieve scale and growth, we rate “BUY” on the stock and we revise
our target price from Rs 890 to Rs 960. At a CMP of Rs 876, stock trades at 13.8x FY14E
earnings.
Financials
Rs, Crore
2QFY14
1QFY14
(QoQ)-%
2QFY13
(YoY)-%
Revenue
432.37
357.29
21.0
326.86
32.3
EBITDA
100.8
76.8
31.3
89.06
13.2
PAT
60.8
57.1
6.5
44.71
36.0
EBITDA Margin
23.3%
21.5%
180bps
27.2%
(390bps)
PAT Margin
14.1%
16.0%
(190bps)
13.7%
40bps
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
3

4. Persistent System.
Operating Metrics
2QFY12
Client Concentration
Top1
Top 5
Top 10
Billing Rate-USD/ppm
Onsite - Linear
Offshore - Linear
Yeild per Employee(excld- Trainee)
Employee Metrics
Total Employee
Attrition
Utilization rate %(xclude IP Led )
3QFY12
4QFY13 1QFY13 QFY13
3QFY13 4QFY13
16.0%
38.6%
49.4%
15.9%
37.0%
48.3%
17.2%
36.6%
48.8%
17.8%
33.5%
45.3%
20.7%
36.3%
47.0%
21.1%
37.3%
49.4%
12665
3803
3208
12387
3778
3247
12603
3895
3350
12789
3898
3345
12863
3978
3746
12772
4032
3817
6900
17.7%
73.8%
6706
17.4%
74.1%
6628
18.3%
71.7%
6536
18.9%
74.1%
6370
16.9%
75.2%
6719
16.0%
77.3%
1QFY14
2QFY14
21.2%
34.7%
46.0%
22.5%
36.4%
47.3%
14014
4143
3769
14567
4111
3602
14283
4109
3919
6970
14.4%
72.5%
7144
14.2%
70.0%
7457
14.0%
71.7%
21.6%
36.7%
47.9%
Financials
Rs in Cr,
Sales
Employee Cost
Cost of technical professionals
Other expenses
Total expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
Other Income
EBIT
Interest Cost
Profit (+)/Loss (-) Before Taxes
Provision for Taxes
Net Profit (+)/Loss (-)
Growth-% (YoY)
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Expenses on Sales-%
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Tax rate
Margin-%
EBITDA
EBIT
PAT
Valuation:
CMP
No of Share
NW
EPS
BVPS
RoE-%
P/BV
P/E
FY10
601.16
368.74
0
86.05
454.79
146.37
33.52
11.23
112.85
0
124.08
9.05
115.03
FY11
775.84
481.62
30.67
105.24
617.53
158.31
42.39
34.44
115.92
0
150.36
10.62
139.74
FY12
1000.3
599.05
41.68
135.2
775.93
224.37
61.1
34.44
163.27
0.00
197.71
55.09
142.62
FY13
1294.5
719
54
218
990.78
303.72
78
34.44
225.44
0.03
259.851
75.37
184.481
FY14E
1657.54
895.07
82.88
290.07
1268.02
389.52
93.54
66.30
295.98
0.00
362.29
108.69
253.60
FY15E
2053.93
1119.39
102.70
379.98
1602.06
451.86
84.18
71.89
367.68
0.00
439.57
131.87
307.70
1.2%
60.2%
74.1%
29.1%
8.2%
21.5%
28.9%
41.7%
2.1%
29.4%
35.4%
29.4%
28.0%
28.3%
37.5%
23.9%
16.0%
21.3%
61.3%
14.3%
7.3%
62.1%
13.6%
7.1%
59.9%
13.5%
27.9%
55.5%
16.9%
29.0%
54.0%
17.5%
30.0%
54.5%
18.5%
30.0%
24.3%
18.8%
19.1%
20.4%
14.9%
18.0%
22.4%
16.3%
14.3%
23.5%
17.4%
14.3%
23.5%
17.9%
15.3%
22.0%
17.9%
15.0%
310.0
4.0
639.0
28.8
159.7
18.0%
1.9
10.8
366.7
4.0
747.1
34.9
186.8
18.7%
2.0
10.5
409.2
4.0
840.5
35.7
210.1
17.0%
1.9
11.5
541.0
4.0
1018.3
46.1
254.6
18.1%
2.1
11.7
876.0
4.0
1234.4
63.4
308.6
20.5%
2.8
13.8
876.0
4.0
1504.7
76.9
376.2
20.4%
2.3
11.4
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
4

5. Coal India LTD.
Company Update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
289
350
350
21%
NA
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty
533278
COALINDIA
372/238
176226
17622
6308
Stock Performance-%
1M
-1.3
2.8
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
-21.2
8.8
YTD
-21.4
8.6
"Buy"
12nd Dec' 13
CCI’s Rs 1,773-crore penalty:
The Competition Commission of India (CCI) imposed a Rs 1,773 cr fine on Coal India, the
country' monopoly commercial coal miner, based on a complaint filed by two power
companies that India's monopoly producer of coal abused its dominance. The
government owns 90% stake in Coal India, and has traditionally drawn hefty dividend
income from the cash rich coal company. In 2012-13, the company paid a total dividend
of Rs 8,843 cr out of which the government's share was Rs 7,959 cr. A Rs 1800-crore fine
could possibly mean less profits for the company and less dividend income for its owners.
But as the main owner, the government, will pocket this amount in the form of a fine, it
will not be poorer in any way.
Coal India to get Rs 2,119 cr extra on coal price revision :
Coal India Ltd is likely to get additional revenue of Rs 2,119 cr in this fiscal on account of
revision in dry fuel prices.CIL (Coal India Ltd) has revised and rationalized the basic
notified prices of all the grades of non-coking coal except GI, G2 and G5.The estimated
additional revenue due to revision of basic notified price for the current financial year is
Rs 2,119 cr.CIL had revised the prices of all grades of coal, barring three, for all its eight
producing subsidiaries with effect from May 28 this year. Mahanadi Coalfields which is
expected to contribute Rs 686 crore, followed by Rs 664 crore from Northern Coalfields
and Rs 495 crore from South Eastern Coalfields.
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
2QFY14
90.0
5.5
5.3
2.2
1QFY14 4QFY13
90.0
90.0
5.4
5.4
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.6
1 yr Forward P/B
The company’s net sales grew 5.8% yoy to 15,411cr (above our estimate of 15,083cr).
Sales volumes stood at 109mn ton in 2QFY2014 compared to 102mn ton in 2QFY2013.
The blended realizations declined by 1.4% yoy to 1,414/ton (despite price hike) due to
lower realization on FSA coal.Despite 5.8% yoy growth in top-line, EBITDA decreased by
8.2% yoy to 3,176cr due to higher raw material costs (18.1% yoy to 2,251cr) and
contractual expenses (27.6% yoy to 1,394cr). The depreciation expenses increased by
27.8% yoy to 495cr; hence, adjusted net profit was flat yoy at 3,043cr .
Coal India 2QFY2014 top-line was above our estimate. The company’s net sales grew
5.8% yoy to 15,411cr. Sales volumes stood at 109mn ton in 2QFY2014 compared to
102mn ton in 2QFY2013. The blended realizations declined by 1.4% yoy to 1,414/ton
despite price hikes. Its FSA coal’s realizations were lower than expected due to lower
grade coal. The company liquidated 11mn ton of old stock.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Financials :
Net Revenue
EBITDA
Depriciation
Interest Cost
Tax
PAT
Q2FY14
15411
2794
495
8
1412
3052
Y-o-Y %
5.8
-2.4
27.8
-22.2
-4.2
-0.8
Q-o-Q %
-6.4
-29.4
4.1
7.0
-27.9
-18.2
Q2FY13
14573
2862
387
10
1475
3078
Q1FY14
16472
3958
476
7
1958
3731
(In Crs)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
5

6. Coal India LTD.
Coal India 2QFY2014 top-line was above our estimate. The company’s net sales grew
5.8% yoy to 15,411cr. Sales volumes stood at 109mn ton in 2QFY2014 compared to
102mn ton in 2QFY2013. The blended realizations declined by 1.4% yoy to 1,414/ton
despite price hikes. Its FSA coal’s realizations were lower than expected due to lower
grade coal. The company liquidated 11mn ton of old stock.
CIL’s e-auction realizations have declined over the past one year on account of decline
in international coal price coupled with weak domestic demand. Going forward, we
expect CIL’s profitability to be affected due to lower e-auction realizations, sticky staff
costs and other expenses. Moreover, given the price hike taken during 4QFY2013, we
do not expect CIL to undertake any further price hikes in the near-term.
OUTLOOK:
We expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of
poor offtake capabilities of CIL. Also, we expect CIL’s margins to decline during FY2014
due to lower e-auction realizations and higher staff costs/other expenses.News flows
related to further divestment in CIL by the government is likely to keep the stock price
under pressure in our view. we recommend Buy rating on the stock with our previous
target price Rs.350.
OPERATING MATRIX
Coal Production in MT
Coal Offtake in MT
Revenue Generation From unit Ton
Avg Man Power (in numbers)
Productivity Per Man
FY10
431
416
1073
404744
1066
FY11
431
425
1183
390243
1105
FY12
436
433
1441
377447
1155
FY13
452
465
1468
364736
1240
P/L PERFORMANCE
Net Revenue from Operation
Cost Of Projects & Contractual
Power and fuel
contractual expenses
Employee benefit Expence
Expenditure
EBITDA
Depriciation
Interest Cost
Tax
PAT
ROE
FY11
50234
7573
1755
4580
20481
40390
9843
1673
79
5595
10868
33
FY12
62415
5123
2013
4901
26705
40857
21558
1969
54
6484
20588
51
FY13
68303
6556
2333
5802
27943
50219
18084
1813
45
7623
17356
36
FY14E
69864
8383
2595
6057
28943
53738
16126
1860
34
7332
15870
33.1
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
6

7. Coal India LTD.
B/S PERFORMANCE
Share capital
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity
Long-term borrowings
Short-term borrowings
Long-term provisions
Trade payables
Short-term provisions
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Tangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
Long-term loans and advances
Inventories
Trade receivables
Cash and bank balances
Short-term loans and advances
Total Assets
RATIOS
P/B
EPS
Debtor to Turnover%
Creditors to Turnover%
Inventories to Turnover%
CASH FLOWS
Cash from Operation
Changes In Working Capital
Net Cash From Operation
Cash From Investment
Cash from Finance
Net Cash Flow during year
Trading At :
FY10
6316
20956
27273
343
1620
2545
772
1404
5443
0
12035
2211
610
4402
2169
39078
8066
17921
FY10
0.0
0.0
4.9
1.7
1.0
FY11
6316
26998
33314
1334
33
22461
645
12387
8490
779
12065
2057
845
5586
3419
45806
11180
21646
FY11
5.7
17.3
22.8
4.3
3.7
FY12
6316
34137
40453
1305
0
28271
829
15595
9785
759
12681
1848
1017
6071
5663
58203
13478
24688
FY12
5.5
32.6
29.2
4.3
3.1
FY13
6316
42156
48472
1078
0
31144
837
20447
12385
712
12754
3496
1181
5618
10480
62236
16189
25479
FY13
4.0
27.5
52.7
4.2
2.8
FY10
FY11
FY12
10727
12819
16323
-131
-3822
3565
10596
8997
19888
950
697
-10410
2163
2911
-7382
13708
12606
2095
Down 21% from its 52week High
Up 14% from its 52 week Low
FY13
15948
-6839
9109
-1833
-7852
-575
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
7

8. LUPIN
"BUY"
11th Dec' 13
"Optimistic Guidance "
Result Update
BUY
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
873
1006
15%
-
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
500257
LUPIN
946/569
39101
395892
6332
Stock Performance-%
1M
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
-1
-4
46
39
YTD
41
23
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Current 1QFY14 4QFY1
3
46.8
46.8
46.8
31.5
30.7
28.8
12.1
12.4
14.3
9.7
10.1
10.0
One Year Forward P/E
The management of the company in its latest media interaction stated that the company is
confident of logging 15-20 % CAGR in US and India in the days to come on the back of rich
pipeline as well as acquisition based strategy. Management further said that company is
expecting to launch about 100 new drugs in next three years. This new launch will include
an entire range of oral contraceptives and opthal products.
Lupin earlier posted slightly better than expected 2QFY14 results ,the company reported
its net sales at Rs 2631 Cr up by 18 % YoY on the back of‐ strong business performance
from US and Europe formulation segment. The segment grew by 31% YoY to Rs. 1108.9
Cr during 2Q FY14, against Rs. 844.4 Cr for Q2, FY 2012 13.This segment contributes
42% to overall Company sales.US brands business contributed 10% of total US sales,
whereas the generics business contributed 90% for the quarter under review.
The
Indian
formulation
business
contributed ‐ 25%
of the
Company’s
overall revenues for the quarter.Company’s India formulation business grew by 9%
‐
recording revenues of Rs. 6,635 m. during Q2, FY 2013 14, as compared to Rs. 6,064 m.
for Q2, FY 2012 13. The company’s rest other business geographies to have performed
relatively good for the company.
The operating EBITDA for the 2QFY14 came at Rs 660 Cr and OPM stands at 24.7%.The
RM cost decreased by 7.7% to 32.0% of net sales at Rs. 841.3 Cr during 2QFY14 as
compared to Rs. 889.8 Cr for 2Q FY 13.Manufacturing & other expenses increased by to
30.4% of net sales at Rs. 798.8 Cr during 2Q FY14 as compared to Rs. 591.7 Cr for the
same period last fiscal.Revenue expenditure on R&D stood at 8.3% of net sales at Rs.
217.2 Cr.
The Net profits for 2QFY14 came at Rs 417 Cr. The higher incidence of tax during the
quarter is due to tax provision of Rs 51 Cr made on dividends received from subsidiaries
The company has filed 7 ANDAs and received 6 ANDA approvals in the quarter. Cumulative
ANDA filings with the US FDA now stand at 183 with the company having received 92
approvals to date.
We have slightly raise our TP to Rs 1006 on the back management guidance post the
results. The management is quite optimistic for its business outlook going forward and
believes that the company will achieve its set target going forward.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
2QFY14
2668
660
417
24.7%
15.6%
1QFY14
2476
590
405
23.8%
16.4%
(QoQ)-%
7.8
11.9
3.0
90bps
(70bps)
2QFY13
2301
515
297
22.4%
12.9%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
15.9
28.2
40.4
240bps
270bps
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
8

9. LUPIN
Sales and PAT Trend (Rs)
company reported its net sales at Rs 2631 Cr
up by 18 % YoY on the back of strong
business
performance
from
US and Europe formulation segment.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
OPM %
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
NPM %
The higher incidence of tax during the
quarter is due to tax provision of Rs 51 Cr
made on dividends received from subsidiaries
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
9

10. TATA Steel Ltd.
Initial Coverage
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
420
440
NA
5%
NA
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty
500470
TATASTEEL
448/195
40863
28604
6363
Stock Performance-%
1M
21.7
23.4
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
5.5
0.3
YTD
9.5
3.5
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
2QFY14
31.4
13.6
26.1
29.0
1QFY14 4QFY13
31.4
31.4
13.2
13.9
26.3
27.3
29.2
27.5
1 yr Forward P/B
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
"Hold"
10th Dec' 13
Company Update:
TATA Steel’s consolidated net sales increased 7.4% yoy to 36,645Cr. TSE sales volumes
grew by 10.0% yoy to 3.46mt .The consolidated EBITDA increased by 60.4% yoy to
3,705cr. The company’s tax expenses declined 32.3% yoy. There was an exceptional gain
related to deferred tax write-back of 390cr. Adjusting for this, the net profit stood at
527cr, compared to a loss of 407cr in 2QFY2013.
From the Management Corner the key takeaways are :
Focus on Domestic Market: The Management aims to sell incremental sales volumes
from Jamshedpur expansion mainly in the domestic market. This is unlike other flat steel
producers such as JSW Steel and Essar Steel who have been opportunistically raising
exports, considering INR depreciation against the USD alongside low domestic demand.
Odisha Project could provide further upside in long-term: The Company aims to make
value added steel products at the new facility in Odisha (3mtpa) where the blended
realizations could be potentially higher than existing products by 2015. We believe timely
clearance for expansion of iron ore mine is critical for the plant. The company's Odisha
plant is highly automated and will require fewer employees/ton compared to its
Jamshedpur facility.
Debt levels to rise: Debt of the company is likely to rise till 2015 as it draws debt for
Odisha expansion.
On the back of a consistent operational improvement at the company’s European
operations We are positive on the stock in long run .However, on the back of ongoing
capacity expansion, the gross debt is expected to increase from 66074 crore (FY13) to
76919 crore (FY14E) and 77543 crore (FY15E).
Outlook: Over the past two quarters, Tata Steel has reported strong growth in volumes in
the domestic operations despite weak demand. Its Europe operations have been broadly
better than expectations indicating some stability and predictability from its Europe
operations. Tata Steel’s earnings growth is likely to be driven by higher sales volume in
FY2014-15 on the back of 2.9mn ton brownfield expansion project in Jamshedpur and
steady improvement in profitability of European operations. We have arrived at "Hold"
rating on the stock watching our step for a target price of Rs.340 in near term.
Financials :
Net Sales
EBIDTA
Other Income
Interest Cost
Depriciation
Tax
PAT
Q2FY14
36645
3705
203
1067
1444
447
917
Y-o-Y %
7.4
60.4
0.5
9.8
8.2
-32.4
-325.3
Q-o-Q %
11.7
0.5
10.3
7.6
2.9
27.4
-18.2
Q2FY13
34133
2310
202
972
1335
661
(407)
Q1FY14
32805
3688
184
992
1403
351
1121
(In Crs)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
10

11. TATA Steel Ltd.
TATA Steel Profile:
Tata Steel is among the top ten global steel companies with an annual crude steel
capacity of over 28 mtpa. It is now one of the world's most geographically-diversified
steel producers, with operations in 26 countries and a commercial presence in over 50
countries. The Tata Steel Group, with a turnover of US$ 24.82 billion in FY 2012- 2013,
across five continents and is a Fortune 500 company. Tata Steel’s larger production
facilities include those in India, the UK, the Netherlands, Thailand, Singapore, China and
Australia. Operating companies within the Group include Tata Steel Limited (India),
Tata Steel Europe Limited (formerly Corus), NatSteel, and Tata Steel Thailand (formerly
Millennium Steel).
INDIAN Operation:
The Indian Steel industry witnessed an increase in crude steel production of 5.4% y-o-y,
where as the real consumption increased only by 3.3% with imports registering a sharp
increase on account of lower import duties applicable to ASEAN countries. The
slowdown in fixed asset investment and lackluster automotive demand impacted
margins of steelmakers adversely. In Financial Year 2013-14, Indian operations are
expected to benefit on account of stabilization of the commissioned capacity, sourcing
coke internally and reduced impact of exchange fluctuations because of part liquidation
of foreign currency loans. The shift to an enhanced product-mix with new cold rolling
facilities being set up and the collaboration with Nippon Steel to produce high strength
automotive steels is expected to aid profitability.
EUROPIAN Operation:
The apparent steel demand in the European Union continued to deteriorate during
Financial Year 2012-13 having decreased by about 9.7% in 2012. In aggregate, the steel
demand in Europe is currently about 30% below pre-crisis levels, which has impacted
the demand and customer buying behavior significantly. TSE’s performance in the
Financial Year 2012-13 was also impacted on account of operational issues faced in
rebuilding the Blast Furnace at Port Talbot, UK and undertaking of major repairs of the
Blast Furnace at Ijmuiden. Even though the market demand was relatively muted. The
rebuilding of the Blast Furnace and other management tasks and initiatives may
position TSE on a better platform for Financial Year 2013-14 even though the market is
expected to be subdued for the next 12 months. The European operations are
undertaking structural improvement measures including supply chain transformation,
differentiated product strategy, reduction of manufacturing costs and overheads (head
count currently 25% below pre-crisis levels).
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
11

12. TATA Steel Ltd.
OPERATION & PAT
Net Revenue from Operation
Other Income
Total Income
Cost Of Projects
Freight and forwarding
Employee benefit Expence
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Depriciation
Interest Cost
PBT
Tax
Minority Interest
Exceptional items
PAT
Net Worth
ROE%
Book value per share
P/B
FY10
102393
1186
103579
44092
5549
16463
94350
8043
4492
3022
1715
2152
-15
-1684
-2009
22814
-1.4
257
2.64
FY11
118753
680
119433
53283
6390
15840
102006
16747
4415
3956
9056
3246
60
3046
8983
35386
16.8
371
0.90
FY12
132900
1573
134473
65745
6660
17229
120483
12417
4517
4250
5223
3636
173
3362
5390
42616
4.8
439
0.98
FY13
134712
479
135191
60536
7434
18918
122390
12321
5575
3968
3257
3229
214
-7390
-7058
34172
1.0
352
1.13
VALUATION
NPM %
OPM %
EBITDA %
P/E
ROCE%
EPS
FY10
-0.31
3.43
7.76
-185.06
-2.41
-23
FY11
4.97
10.33
14.02
5.38
9.11
94
FY12
1.51
5.87
9.23
20.51
5.18
55
FY13
0.25
4.99
9.11
116.19
-6.87
-73
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
12

13. TATA Steel Ltd.
B/S Performance
Share capital
Reserve & Surplus
Total equity
Minority Interest
Long-term borrowings
Short-term borrowings
Total Borrowings
Deferred tax liabilities (net)
Long-term provisions
Trade payables
Short-term provisions
Total liabilities
Intangibles
Goodwill on consolidation
Tangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
Non-current Investments
Long-term loans and advances
Inventories
Trade receivables
Cash and bank balances
Short-term loans and advances
Current investments
Total Assets
Cash Flows
Cash from Operation
Net Cash From Operation
Cash From Investment
Cash from Finance
Net Cash Flow during year
Trading At :
FY10
887
21927
22814
884
28059
25041
53100
1769
3789
22020
2806
109738
1635
14542
31778
12383
3237
4801
18687
11624
6788
1961
2181
109738
FY11
959
34427
35386
889
49251
3794
53045
2188
4585
18457
3395
135488
1790
15298
34778
13552
4688
8685
24055
14812
10859
3547
3159
135488
FY12
971
41645
42616
1091
45238
4699
49937
2504
4715
20529
3476
146852
2851
17355
39081
20196
2623
6837
25598
14878
10799
3717
1398
146852
FY13
971
33201
34172
1669
46858
8115
54972
3155
5356
21779
2943
146906
2959
13065
51978
14277
2497
7098
24091
13994
9860
4061
760
146906
FY10
FY11
FY12
5600
13638
10312
10502
6463
11385
(4700)
(8379)
3705
(5135)
5993
(8462)
667
4077
6628
4.8% Down from its 52week High
112% Up from its 52 week Low
FY13
10195
13324
(12321)
(2045)
(1042)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
13

14. NIIT Tech
"BUY"
9th Dec' 13
"Next Journey to Billion Dollar"
Company update
Buy
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
332
360
310
8%
16%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
532541
NIITTECH
344/234
2011
20884
6260
Stock Performance
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
18.4
18.29
1yr
19.5
6.1
YTD
26.8
23.1
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Current
31.19
29.21
19.94
19.66
1 year forward P/E
1QFY14 4QFY13
31.23
31.29
29.04
27.79
19.67
19.52
20.06
21.4
In an interview to Media, NIIT Tech management expressed its confidence of driving
growth in the organization and looking at an aspirational goal of USD 1 billion revenue
in next 5 years.
The Company's growth in past 3years gives the confidence of driving growth going
forward. NIIT Tech has been strong performer from the slowdown with CAGR of 30%
in the last 3 years and even we look at it in dollar terms, it has been about 22-23%.
Next journey to USD 1 billion in next 5 years, company would report at a CAGR of 20%
in INR term and 18% in USD term for FY13-19E.
Aspects of growth strategy:
Aggressive in the US market:The company is expecting slight uptrend in the US market
(Us market contributes 41% of sales) led by recent healthy demand environment. The
company’s focus would be very sharply on those developed markets particularly the US
as well as Asian market going forward. That will be one aspect of growth strategy.
Scouting for acquisition: NIIT Tech’s focus is on strengthening the industry segments by
meaning full acquisition particularly in the insurance and the travel space. Its
management has indicated that they are constantly on the lookout and in conversation
with the potential assets. Therefore, certain amount of inorganic initiative is important
to sustain the growth momentum.
Eyeing on Infrastructure services: NIIT Tech’s large engagements typically involved with
significant amount of infrastructure management services, which is a strong practice in
the organization. The travel vertical and the infrastructure management services line
will be key areas of focus for NIIT, going forward.
Consistent in order addition: Fresh orders of USD 84Mn versus USD 154 mn in Q1 were
secured during the quarter leading to USD 263Mn worth of orders executable over the
next 12 months. In 1QFY14, Company had huge business in the domestic market which
was USD 65 million intake from the Airports Authority of India (AAI). But in Q2 FY14,
order has primarily been in the international market.
During the 2QFY14, they secured fresh orders of $84 million, leading to $248 million
worth of orders executable over the next 12 months.
View and Valuation: We expects good growth from Travel & Tourism vertical in FY'14
but not the same level of the growth, But the BFSI expected to be softer. However, the
MFG and Govt verticals expected to improve going forward. Company’s Order wins in
the recent quarters have been healthy, lending visibility on revenue growth. At a CMP of
Rs332, trades at 7.5x FY14E earnings. We retain “ buy” view on the stock with a price
target of Rs360 (revised from Rs310).
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
2QFY14
587.3
88.6
60.4
15.1%
10.3%
1QFY14
541.9
78.2
52
14.4%
9.6%
(QoQ)-%
8.4
13.3
16.2
70bps
70bps
2QFY13
500.1
84.8
43.1
17.0%
8.6%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
17.4
4.5
40.1
(190bps)
(170bps)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
14

15. NIIT Tech
Operating Metrics;
Sales Mix-Verticles
.
Banking and Finacial Services
Insurance
Transport
Manufacturing
Government
Others
Sales Mix-Geography
Americas
EMEA
RoW
Revenue Concentration %
DSO-days
Top-5
Top-10
Headcounts
No of Headcounts
1QFY13
13%
21%
40%
7%
8%
11%
2QFY13
13%
20%
42%
6%
5%
14%
3QFY13
12%
19%
42%
6%
8%
13%
4QFY13
12%
19%
37%
6%
11%
15%
1QFY14
12%
18%
36%
7%
13%
14%
2QFY14
14%
19%
37%
6%
10%
14%
36%
39%
25%
38%
39%
23%
37%
40%
23%
38%
37%
25%
39%
35%
26%
41%
36%
23%
84
30%
43%
75
32%
47%
76
34%
48%
82
32%
47%
98
31%
46%
100
36%
49%
7444
7617
7882
8158
8207
8017
FY10
913.7
503.71
239.75
743.46
170.24
35.81
7.64
134.43
0
142.07
14.42
127.65
FY11
1232.25
601.36
393.1
994.46
237.79
31.46
13.6
206.33
2.22
217.71
32.3
185.41
FY12
1576.48
891.12
415.26
1306.38
270.1
36.42
30.37
233.68
3.84
260.21
63.75
196.46
FY13
2021.36
1115.1
576.96
1692.06
329.3
56.69
22.75
272.61
1.91
293.45
75.05
218.4
FY14E
2385.41
1347.75
667.91
2015.67
369.74
65.73
71.56
304.00
4.89
370.68
105.64
265.03
FY15E
2863.75
1589.38
816.17
2405.55
458.20
73.49
71.59
384.71
3.67
452.64
131.26
321.37
-6.8%
2.3%
9.6%
34.9%
39.7%
45.2%
27.9%
13.6%
6.0%
28.2%
21.9%
11.2%
18.0%
12.3%
21.4%
20.1%
23.9%
21.3%
55.1%
26.2%
10.1%
48.8%
31.9%
14.8%
56.5%
26.3%
24.5%
55.2%
28.5%
25.6%
56.5%
28.0%
28.5%
55.5%
28.5%
29.0%
18.6%
14.7%
14.0%
19.3%
16.7%
15.0%
17.1%
14.8%
12.5%
16.3%
13.5%
10.8%
15.5%
12.7%
11.1%
16.0%
13.4%
11.2%
170.25
5.88
579.78
21.7
98.6
22.0%
1.7
7.8
184.65
5.93
752.11
31.3
126.8
24.7%
1.5
5.9
270.9
5.96
922.2
33.0
154.7
21.3%
1.8
8.2
262.35
6.02
1094.12
36.3
181.7
20.0%
1.4
7.2
332
6.02
1350.45
44.0
224.3
19.6%
1.5
7.5
332
6.02
1662.62
53.4
276.2
19.3%
1.2
6.2
Financials;
Rs in Cr,
Sales
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Total expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
Other Income
EBIT
Interest Cost
Profit (+)/Loss (-) Before Taxes
Provision for Taxes
Net Profit (+)/Loss (-)
Growth-% (YoY)
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Expenses on Sales-%
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Tax rate
Margin-%
EBITDA
EBIT
PAT
Valuation:
CMP
No of Share
NW
EPS
BVPS
RoE-%
P/BV
P/E
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
15

16. Amara Raja Batteries Limited
"BUY"
06th
Dec' 13
OPTIMISTIC MANAGEMENT SPEECH
Result Update
BUY
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
328
365
315
11%
4%
Market Data
BSE Code
500008
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
AMARAJABAT
342/207
5,606
163647
6241
Company hopeful to maintain double digits growth for second half of the year.
Amara Raja had posted its 2QYFY14 sales at Rs 805 Cr up by 12.3 % YoY on the back of
the strong demand in the automotive replacement and industrial battery business. There
was double digit growth in both of these segments.
The automotive battery business reported double digit growth in revenue, supported by
strong volume expansion both in 4 wheeler and 2 wheeler batteries in the replacement
market, however the OEM demand continued to be sluggish. The trading volume in the
home UPS business suffered due to unfavorable season on account of mild summer and
good monsoon.
The operating EBITDA for the 2QFY14 came at Rs 142 Cr and OPM at 17.6%.The OPM
improves by nearly 118 bps mainly due to decrease in purchase of stock in trade as
percentage of sales. The purchase of stock in trade as percentage of sales stands at 3%
versus 7% for the same time last fiscal. However RM cost to sales have increased to 64%
from 59% due to rise in the price of major component of RM, lead and an employee benefit
cost was higher by 60 bps to 4.8% during the period.
Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
4.0
5.0
1yr
29.0
23.0
YTD
69.0
53.0
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Current 1QFY14 4QFY1
3
52.1
52.1
52.1
11.1
10.8
10.1
15.0
14.2
15.3
21.9
22.9
22.6
The net profits for the 2QFY14 came at Rs 95 Cr and NPM at 11.7% .The other income for
the quarter came at Rs 7 Cr and Tax rate stands at 29 %.
The management of the company after results said that company will maintain its margins at
17-18 % for the rest of the fiscal with no pricing moderation. The management further said
that company is confident of maintaining double digit growth for the second half of the year.
The company believes that there is improvement in the market share.
The Company's effort to enhance the capacities of Two-wheeler battery in the existing plant
has witnessed some delay and is likely to go on stream by end January 2014. The enhanced
capacities will support the Company to commence business with other major Two-wheeler
OEM's and to grow the aftermarket business in a big manner. The green field project for
enhancement of Four-wheeler capacity is progressing as per schedule and is likely to
commence production by Q2 of next financial year.
One Year Forward P/Bv Band
The stock is currently trading at CMP Rs 328 and it has achieve our first TP Rs 315.The
strong 2QFY14 results , Optimistic management speech and strong business outlook going
forward raises positive view on the stock. We have slightly tweaked our TP up to Rs 365 on
the back of above fundamental reasons.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
2QFY14
807
142
95
17.6%
11.8%
1QFY14
894
145
98
16.2%
11.0%
(QoQ)-%
(9.7)
(2.1)
(3.1)
140bps
80bps
2QFY13
719
118
70
16.4%
9.7%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
12.2
20.3
35.7
120bps
200bps
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
16

17. Amara Raja Batteries Limited
SALES & PAT TREND
Growth in sales came on the back of the
strong
demand
in
the automotive
replacement and industrial battery business.
There was double digit growth in both of
these segments.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
OPM & NPM TREND
The expansion in OPM seems largely due to
decrease in purchase of stocks in trade costs
by 430 bps to 3% .
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
RM Cost as % Sales
Lead costs which accounts for a major chunk
of its expenses were higher than the year ago
quarter. As a per cent of sales, raw materials
were at 64 % up 500 bps over the year-ago
period.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
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18. Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you.
Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your
information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly available information, findings of our research wing
“East wind” & information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also
these are subject to change without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations, should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping
in mind that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe
to assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or otherwise in
the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned in this report/message.
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