Climate change and bangladesh 2050
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Presentation at Twentieth Fobana 2006 20. ATLANA Host: Bangladesh Association of Georgia Date: Labor Day Weekend, September 1-3, 2006 Venue: Cobb Galleria Centre, Atlanta, GA Convener: Jashim Uddin Member Secretary: Mohammed Arefin Babulhttp://www.fobanaonline.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=126&Itemid=61
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Climate change and bangladesh 2050
- 1. Climate changeClimate change and Bangladeshand Bangladesh 20502050 Naima ZakariaNaima Zakaria Co-executive Director AT-Large (Co-executive Director AT-Large ( www.changebangladesh.comwww.changebangladesh.com
- 2. How does climate change affectHow does climate change affect Bangladesh?Bangladesh? understanding the basicsunderstanding the basics What the ministries and groups are doingWhat the ministries and groups are doing about climate change in Bangladeshabout climate change in Bangladesh beside from just talking?beside from just talking? what must be in North America our actionwhat must be in North America our action agenda as U.S. residents, citizens, andagenda as U.S. residents, citizens, and as expatriates on environmental refugeesas expatriates on environmental refugees from Bangladeshfrom Bangladesh
- 3. Focus on affectFocus on affect 30 million (world bank figure) environmental30 million (world bank figure) environmental refugees in the next 50 years in Bangladeshrefugees in the next 50 years in Bangladesh oceans rise even 1 foot, 15% of the totaloceans rise even 1 foot, 15% of the total landmass of Bangladesh,landmass of Bangladesh, significant amountssignificant amounts of land in the Bay of Bengal are going toof land in the Bay of Bengal are going to disappeardisappear The glaciers will disappear,The glaciers will disappear, leaving all of theleaving all of the subcontinent's major rivers dry.These rivers,subcontinent's major rivers dry.These rivers, provide the vast majority of water to India,provide the vast majority of water to India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. (And glacialPakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. (And glacial water also feeds China)water also feeds China) 40 percent of the world's population is40 percent of the world's population is dependent on water from the Himalayas.dependent on water from the Himalayas. TheThe retreat of the Himalayan glaciers is not aretreat of the Himalayan glaciers is not a prediction; it's happening.prediction; it's happening. The only question isThe only question is when the effects will start to kick in. But I wouldwhen the effects will start to kick in. But I would say that even if it takes 100 years for the watersay that even if it takes 100 years for the water supply to crash, it's not too early to start doingsupply to crash, it's not too early to start doing something about it.something about it. But here's the irony: in the short run, the rapidlyBut here's the irony: in the short run, the rapidly melting glaciers may actually cause flooding inmelting glaciers may actually cause flooding in the plains.the plains. the whole weather pattern could change ifthe whole weather pattern could change if ocean currents change as a result of risingocean currents change as a result of rising water temperatures. The monsoon couldwater temperatures. The monsoon could disappear entirely (or it could double indisappear entirely (or it could double in intensity!). There's not much to say about thisintensity!). There's not much to say about this -- because no one really knows -- except that it-- because no one really knows -- except that it reminds us how little we really know aboutreminds us how little we really know about what is happening.what is happening. First thing first…The basics: Understanding Climate ChangeFirst thing first…The basics: Understanding Climate Change Bangladesh is a LDC country the size of Wisconsin, bursting with aBangladesh is a LDC country the size of Wisconsin, bursting with a population nearly half that of the United Statespopulation nearly half that of the United States
- 4. Actors explain climate change through song and danceActors explain climate change through song and dance What the ministries and groups are doing about climateWhat the ministries and groups are doing about climate change in Bangladesh beside from just talking?change in Bangladesh beside from just talking? Groups are trying to do advocacy by performing arts. The GoB plans are difficult to understand which tell me there is little planned for 2050. We expatriates have a role to play here. ' www.nccbd.org‘ The site have developed by the network named “Network on Climate Change, Bangladesh ( NCC,B )”. Civil society is lukewarm active on this issue
- 5. Urban areas and what can we do about Dhaka leviesUrban areas and what can we do about Dhaka levies What about our capital and other urban areas?What about our capital and other urban areas?
- 6. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”. The exact magnitude of the changes in the global climate is still uncertain and subject of worldwide scientific studies. It is broadly recognized that Bangladesh is very vulnerable to these changes. Indeed, it has internationally been argued that Bangladesh, as a country, may suffer the most severe impacts from climate change. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable but why, because it is low-lying, located on the Bay of Bengal in the delta of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna and densely populated. Its national economy strongly depends on agriculture and natural resources that are sensitive to climate change and sea level rise. What can we do about the coming challenges? International opinion on climateInternational opinion on climate changechange
- 7. Fig. 2: Interactions of Six Factors of “Survival Hexagon” Making sense of it all and finding solution We can organize We can advocate We can lobby northern governments, Congress in the United States We can set up EPZ style economics zones where we stand to lose land, help the local Economy. We can move public policy in the direction that helps people Come out of poverty and buy their way out. You can encourage your kids to take up career paths consistent to what is needed for Bangladesh.
- 8. Identifying the strategic adaptations that should be considered by policy makersIdentifying the strategic adaptations that should be considered by policy makers and planners to strengthen the capacity of Bangladesh to deal with climate change.and planners to strengthen the capacity of Bangladesh to deal with climate change. Focus is on anticipatory, rather than on reactive adaptation. An anticipatoryFocus is on anticipatory, rather than on reactive adaptation. An anticipatory approach is favored over a reactive response because impacts of climate changeapproach is favored over a reactive response because impacts of climate change are found that (i) are gradual, long-term and may be irreversible; (ii) increase theare found that (i) are gradual, long-term and may be irreversible; (ii) increase the intensity of extreme events, such as cyclones and floods; (iii) affect the long-termintensity of extreme events, such as cyclones and floods; (iii) affect the long-term performance of planning decisions and investments.performance of planning decisions and investments. Strategic adaptations are formulated in line with the key impacts and the keyStrategic adaptations are formulated in line with the key impacts and the key challenges that are summarized hereafter. Strategic adaptation to climate changechallenges that are summarized hereafter. Strategic adaptation to climate change should produce a coordinated response, supported by all stakeholders, on threeshould produce a coordinated response, supported by all stakeholders, on three different levels:different levels: 1. Planning and natural resources management, including the participation of1. Planning and natural resources management, including the participation of different stakeholders in the decision-making processdifferent stakeholders in the decision-making process 2. Information needs, management and dissemination2. Information needs, management and dissemination 3. International positioning and representation3. International positioning and representation Thus, strategic adaptation relates to a coordinated institutional response, enhancingThus, strategic adaptation relates to a coordinated institutional response, enhancing integrated planning, information management and international activities. Theseintegrated planning, information management and international activities. These directions are considered crucial in the effort to reduce Bangladesh' vulnerability todirections are considered crucial in the effort to reduce Bangladesh' vulnerability to climate change. Not only do they prepare and are they needed for theclimate change. Not only do they prepare and are they needed for the implementation of more operational actions, but they would also significantlyimplementation of more operational actions, but they would also significantly contribute to an increased awareness, which in itself is a core strategic adaptation.contribute to an increased awareness, which in itself is a core strategic adaptation. Policy makers dilemmaPolicy makers dilemma
- 9. Effects of sea level riseEffects of sea level rise The rise of global seaThe rise of global sea level by the end of AD 2050 would mean thatlevel by the end of AD 2050 would mean that there is a high risk of coastal inundation bythere is a high risk of coastal inundation by sea water. In the case of Bangladesh thesea water. In the case of Bangladesh the projected 1.44m rise of sea level wouldprojected 1.44m rise of sea level would inundate 16% of the populated land, displaceinundate 16% of the populated land, displace 13% of the population and lose 10% of the GDP.13% of the population and lose 10% of the GDP. The effect of sea level rise is more critical,The effect of sea level rise is more critical, since the Bengal delta is subsiding. 13% wesince the Bengal delta is subsiding. 13% we are talking about 34 million people in 2050!are talking about 34 million people in 2050! Future planning based on facts
- 10. In the United States The National AssessmentIn the United States The National Assessment on Climate Change (NACC) was a massiveon Climate Change (NACC) was a massive multidisciplinary effort to study and portray inmultidisciplinary effort to study and portray in regional detail the potential effects of human-regional detail the potential effects of human- inducedinduced global warmingglobal warming on theon the United StatesUnited States .. The project was articulated into some 20The project was articulated into some 20 regional studies - each involving dozens ofregional studies - each involving dozens of scientific and academic experts as well asscientific and academic experts as well as representatives of industry and environmentalrepresentatives of industry and environmental groups. The final reports synthesizing regionalgroups. The final reports synthesizing regional and national findings were published inand national findings were published in November 2000, titled "National Assessment ofNovember 2000, titled "National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climatethe Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change."Variability and Change." Where are BD policy makers that will affect 34m people? United states prepares for climate change
- 12. Expatriate Bangladeshi and American-BangladeshiExpatriate Bangladeshi and American-Bangladeshi community has the potential to make a difference incommunity has the potential to make a difference in the lives of our countrymen/women.the lives of our countrymen/women. Will we heed the callWill we heed the call ? Start a dialogue with us at? Start a dialogue with us at CBd.CBd. check outcheck out www.changebangladesh.comwww.changebangladesh.com Brainstorm with us = prepare + participate +Brainstorm with us = prepare + participate + disseminatedisseminate What can you do?
- 13. Thank you !Thank you ! check out www.changebangladesh.comcheck out www.changebangladesh.com Become a lifetime memberBecome a lifetime member naima@changebangladesh.comnaima@changebangladesh.com Questions ?Questions ?