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Navneet Bhushan
(navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com)
Crafitti Consulting (www.crafitti.com)
at ISSA, DRDO, Delhi
August 06, 2013

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Black Swan – The impact of
the highly improbable
• “I cannot accept a pretense of
science. I much prefer a
sophisticated craft, focused on
tricks, to a failed science looking
for certainties” Nassim Nicholas
Taleb

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China is pursuing Deng’s reforms of 1978.
• The Deng reforms very clearly articulate the
“superpower” phase that China has entered
since the start of this century. A new type of
Superpower is the design.
• To fulfill the Superpower by 2050 dream, China
will require secure, fast and wide access to Africa
because of the natural resources – untapped.
• Also, China will need access to markets in other
part of world. Karakoram highway is already open
to China. China will need to build fast goods
trains from Karachi, Gwadar and Pasni to
Karakoram. It will also require the land transport
to be safe and secure. By 2022 China has to
achieve that.
• China’s Superpower design is at stake.
DENG XIOPING’s CHINA
-DESIGN FOR A NEW TYPE OF SUPER
POWER

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WHITE PAPER ON CHINA’s ARMED FORCES!!! APRIL 2013

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WHITE PAPER ON CHINA’s ARMED FORCES!!! APRIL 2013
The PLAArmy (PLAA) is composed of mobile operational units, border and coastal defense
units, guard and garrison units, and is primarily responsible for military operations on land. The
PLAA mobile operational units include 18 combined corps, plus additional independent
combined operational divisions (brigades), and have a total strength of 850,000. The combined
corps, composed of divisions and brigades, are respectively under the seven military area
commands (MACs): Shenyang (16th, 39th and 40th Combined Corps), Beijing (27th, 38th and
65th Combined Corps), Lanzhou (21st and 47th Combined Corps), Jinan (20th, 26th and 54th
Combined Corps), Nanjing (1st, 12th and 31st Combined Corps), Guangzhou (41st and 42nd
Combined Corps) and Chengdu (13th and 14th Combined Corps).
Currently, the PLAN has a total strength of 235,000 officers and men, and commands three fleets,
namely, the Beihai Fleet, the Donghai Fleet and the Nanhai Fleet. Each fleet has fleet aviation
headquarters, support bases, flotillas and maritime garrison commands, as well as aviation
divisions and marine brigades. In September 2012, China's first aircraft carrier Liaoning was
commissioned into the PLAN. China's development of an aircraft carrier has a profound impact
on building a strong PLAN and safeguarding maritime security.
The PLAAF now has a total strength of 398,000 officers and men, and an air command in each of
the seven Military Area Commands (MACs) of Shenyang, Beijing, Lanzhou, Jinan, Nanjing,
Guangzhou and Chengdu. In addition, it commands one airborne corps. Under each air command
are bases, aviation divisions (brigades), ground-to-air missile divisions (brigades), radar brigades
and other units.

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Carrying out Scenario-based Exercises and Drills
The PLA takes scenario-based exercises and drills as the basic means to
accelerate the transition in military training and raise combat
capabilities. It widely practices in training such operational concepts in
conditions of informationization as information dominance,
confrontation between different systems, precision strike, fusion,
integration and jointness.
It organizes training based on real combat needs, formations and
procedures. It pays special attention to confrontational command
training, live independent force-on-force training and training in complex
battlefield environments. Thus, the warfighting capabilities based on
information systems have been thoroughly improved.
WHITE PAPER ON CHINA’s ARMED FORCES!!! APRIL 2013

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 Reactive Approach – the traditional Indian Strategic approach
– is a recipe for disaster
 Comprehensive Integrated Strategic Response – is needed
 STEEPV scanning for creating multiple futuristic
Scenarios is needed
 In the multiple Scenarios created – alternative doctrinal
concepts and Strategies need to be played out
 These integrated global analytical models, simulations and
gaming should become the basis of creating new responses,
capabilities and doctrine

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© CRAFITTI CONSULTING
A Weakening of Hierarchies
• Information abundance permits INDIVIDUALS to by-
pass hierarchies that have – deliberately or
inadvertently – controlled or limited information
• Alternative human organization forms – based mainly
on the Network have proved more effective and
efficient for transacting information than hierarchies.
• In Information intensive enterprises, hierarchical
organizations may not be competitive with networks.
IN ATHENA’s CAMP – Preparing for conflict in the Information Age, (Ed)
Arquilla J. and Ronfeldt D, RAND, 1997

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©
INFORMATION
WE HAVE
JUST
STARTED TO
LEARN
WHAT IS
INFORMATI
ON
Information was initially viewed as being about a
message and/or a medium. A new idea emerged where
some information is being regarded as material – as
lying at the core of all existence, where it may be as
fundamental as matter and energy. These concepts
are under a slightly clichéd title of Information
Physics.
However, they are powerful concepts. If matter and
energy are convertible physical entities, Information
can create both matter and energy in a broader sense
of the words. Thus an Informed actor is likely to
create something tangible (matter or energy).

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©
WE HAVE
JUST
STARTED TO
LEARN
WHAT IS
INFORMATI
ON
The universal tendency of organizations
is towards breakdown and
randomization, i.e., Entropy. All living
systems must counter this Entropy,
through processing of matter and energy.
These processes require information.
The view has developed that everything
is information. LIFE IS
COMPUTATION! (In a broader sense)
INFORMATION

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Law of Increasing Intelligence of Technical Systems
Technical Systems are evolving into
Higher and Higher intelligence

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Combat
Fight/Duel/Conflict/Battle/War/World
War/Armageddon
Modelling
Representing a system and its internal and/or external
dynamics in such a form (may be mathematical) that
information about its behaviour can be extracted or
studied

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Parameters and Processes of Combat
• Two Sides
• Search
• Detection
• Identification
• Acquisition
• Tracking
• Weapon Target Assignment
• Weapon Aiming and Firing
• Attrition
• Command and
Control
• Damage
Assessment
• Strategic and
Tactical
Movement
• Influence of
Technology

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Nature of Combat and Combat Models
Past : Numerical Strength is Combat Power/ Attrition
Based
Modelling: Lanchester Equations Based and Fire Power
Scores in QJMA
Present: Technology Based Platform-Centric Revolution
in Military Affairs
Modelling: Weapon Power Scores in Extended Adaptive
Dynamic Model
Future: Integrated Comprehensive Warfare
Modelling: Exploring New Models – Intelligent Weapon
Power Scores

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Approaches to Combat Modelling
Analytical Methods
• Lanchester Equations
• Adaptive Dynamic
Model
Firepower Scores
• QJMA
• WEI
• Weapon Power Scores
Simulation
• Combat
Simulations
• Wargames
New Approaches
• Cellular Automata
• Petri Nets
• Artificial Life
• Particle Swarm
Optimization

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Rand Report MG 268 (http://www.rand.org)
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More than 12000 Sorties flown in mid
1990s to compare JTIDS datalink 16
system with conventional voice only
communications
250%
IMPROVEMENT
IN Kill Ratio

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The Past

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Combat
• Duels
• LOS Fire
• Attrition Based Warfare
• Numerical Strength
Important (the 3:1 Rule)
To make a Brigade of 4000 troops ineffective, one
needs to destroy atleast 33% to 50% of its troops
using a Division of about 15000 troops

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Combat Models: Past
• Coupled Differential Equations
incorporating the rate at which both sides
destroy each other’s numerical strengths
• Quantified Judgement Method of Analysis
based on Empirical Formulae developed
using Historical Combat Data of Past
Wars (T.N. Dupuy)

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The Present

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Influence of Technology on War/Combat
Information Technology
C4ISR IW/EW/SEW
PGMs ILSS
Knowledge Processing
Intelligence Analysis
Tactical and Strategic
Planning
Automated/Rapid Military
Decision Making
Telecom & Networking
Communications
NetWar/CyberWar
Mobile Comm
Lethality
Mass Destruction to
Selective/Precise &
Effective Destruction

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COLLECT &
PROCESS
BATTLEFIELD
INFORMATION WITH
SPEED AND
ACCURACY
CAPABILITY TO
PICK OUT
TARGETS IN A
DYNAMIC BATTLE
SCENARIO
ABILITY TO DESTROY
TARGETS WITH
PRECISION FROM
GREATER RANGES
HEART OF REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS
(RMA)
INTERACTION
ABILITY TO SEE / CHOOSE TARGETS BETTER
INCREASES THE EFFECTIVENESS OF
PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS

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The Future

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Network Centric Warfare
Network is the Computer
Fundamental Shift from Platform Centric
warfare to Network Centric Warfare
Characterized by:
Very High Level of Shared Battlespace
Awareness
Shared Knowledge of Commanders Intent
Self-Sync, Speed of Command, and rapid lock-
out

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Network Centric Warfare:
Sources of Increased Combat Power
Shared Battlespace Awareness
Increased Battlespace Awareness
Battlespace Expansion: Employment of
Weapons at Max Range
Increased Survivability
Self-Synchronization of Forces
Reduced Collateral Damage
Virtual Collaboration: Moving Information not
people

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Modelling and Analysis of
Advanced Technologies and
Combat Support Systems in
Combat between RMA Forces
The Present

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Evaluation of Weapon
Power Scores of Army,
Navy and Air Force
Weapons
Combat
Support System
(CSS)
Capability
Assessment
Combat
Outcomes
CSS Weights
based on AHP
Force Multiplier
related to CSSEstimation of
Quantity of
Weapons
Force Strength
Evaluation
Generation of
Combat Scenarios
Modified
Adaptive
Dynamic
Model
Estimation of
Model
Parameters
OLD M E T H O D O L O G Y
1998-2000

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Weapon Power Score
Self
Protection
Index
Integration
IndexLethality
Operability
Index
On-Board
Weapons
Capability
On- Board Self
Defence
Capability
Night / All
Weather
Capability
Ability to get
connected to
C3I System
Each Combat Node in the Network

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= Operational Lethality Index (OLI) x (1+ Self-Protection Index (SPI)) x
(1 + Operability Index (OI)) x (1 + Integration Index (II))
Weapon Power Score (WPS)
Force Strength (FS)
= Summation of product of WPS and Quantity of weapons in a force
Force Potential (FP)
= Force Strength x (1 + Combat Support System Effectiveness Factor)

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Factors considered for OLI Computations
Weapons Factors
Infantry Small Arms
and Non Mobile
Weapons
Rate of Fire, Range, Accuracy, Reliability,
and Potential Targets per Strike, Dispersion
Factor
Arty Towed/AD Guns All of the above and certain Artillery
related factors
Arty Self-Propelled All of the above and Mobility factors.
Armour, Ships,
Submarines
OLI of on-board Guns and Missiles,
Mobility factor Punishment factor,
Ammunition factor, Amphibious
capability factor etc.,
Attack Helicopter,
Aircraft
OLI of on-board Guns, Missiles, Ceiling
factor Mobility factor,

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Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II of Army Platforms
Weapon System Factors Affecting
SPI IIOI
Infantry Survivability Night Vision,
Transportability
Communication Links
with Brigade. HQ. and
RPV/UAV
Armor
Built-in-Armor,
Reactive Armor, Top
Attack Protection NBC
Protection, Fire &
Explosion Suppression,
Silhouette, Agility
Night Vision, All
Weather Operations,
fording,
Amphibious
Capability, Air
droppable
Communication Links
with RPV/UAV and other
Armor Vehicles.
Artillery Guns
Shoot & Scoot
Capability, Stand Off
Range, Armored
Protection
All weather
Operability, NBC
Operability.
Integration with AOP
AD Arty/ SAM
Shoot & Scoot
Capability, Stand Off
Range
Radar Control, NBC
Environment
Integration with C2
system

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Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II of Air force Weapons
Weapon System Factors Affecting
SPI OI II
Close Air
Support /
Attack Helo
Deep Strike
Air Defense
Chaff, ECM,
ESM, Multi Mode
Radar, Precision
Guided Munitions
All of the above
and Inertial
Navigation
System
All of the above
and Look
Down/Look Up
Radar
Night Flight,
Night Time
Delivery, All
Weather
Operation
Inter Aircraft
& Ground
Station
Communicati
on

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Factors Affecting SPI, OI and II of Naval Platforms
Weapon System Factors Affecting
SPI IIOI
Battle Ships Intensity of
Threats faced,
Ability to detect
threatening
Platform,
Protection to
Evade hit,
Protection to
Evade Kill given
hit, Ability to
Jam/Confuse
Enemy Platform
Shallow
Water/ High
Seas
Operability
Communication
Links with Shore,
with Maritime
Aircraft, with Sub
Marine force, with
other Ships.
Submarine
Communication Links
with Shore, Maritime
Aircraft, Own
Submarine force.

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Combat Support Systems (CSS)
Intelligence Surveillance
& Reconnaissance(ISR)
C4 Information
Warfare
Logistics
Support
System
• Space based
• Airborne
• Sea Based
• Ground Based
• Command and
Control
• Communications
• Computers
• System
Integration
• EW
• Opsec
• Psyops
• Deception
• Lethal IW
• Non lethal IW
• Encryption
• SW Engg
• Networking
• Computer Security
• Info Security
Infrastructure
Resources
Material
Management
National
Resources
Inter-service
Integration

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IW
ILSS
Space
Air
Sea
Gnd
Cmd & Control
Communications
Computers
System Integration
ISR
C4

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May 30, 2014 44© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
I1 I2 I3 I4 C1 C2 C3 C4 W L
Space based ISR (I1) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1
Airborne ISR (I2) 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1
ISR Sea based ISR (I3) 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1
Gnd based ISR (I4) 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1
Cmd and Control (C1) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
C4 Communications (C2) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Computers (C3) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
System Integration (C4) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IW (W) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ILSS (L) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1
I1 I2 I3 I4 C1 C2 C3 C4 W L
Space based ISR (I1) 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
Air ISR (I2) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0
ISR Sea based ISR (I3) 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0
Gnd based ISR (I4) 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0
Cmd and Control (C1) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
C4 Communications (C2) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
Computers (C3) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
System Integration (C4) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
IW (W) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
ILSS (L) 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1

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Combat
Support
Systems
Combat
Support
System
Dependency
Indices (Di)
Combat
Synergy
Indices
(Si)
Sub System
Activity Index
Ai =(Di) X (Si)
CSS Normalised
Weights
(Wi)
Order of
Ranking
Space based ISR 0.064 0.083 0.00531 0.0598 VIII
Air based ISR 0.096 0.070 0.672 0.0757 IV
Sea based ISR 0.115 0.047 0.00541 0.0609 VI
Gnd based ISR 0.096 0.070 0.00672 0.0757 IV
Cmd and Control 0.165 0.033 0.00545 0.0614 V
Communications 0.054 0.165 0.00891 0.1004 III
Computers 0.054 0.165 0.00891 0.1004 III
System
Integration
0.076 0.165 0.01254 0.1413 II
IW 0.142 0.165 0.2343 0.2639 I
ILSS 0.138 0.039 0.00538 0.0606 VII

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ISR C4
Space Based
Air Based
Sea Based
Ground Based
Command and Control
Communications
Computers
System Integration
IW ILSS
Country A Country B Country C

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CSS Factors
ISR
Space based ISR Communications Satellites, Navigation Satellites,
Meterological Satellites, Imaging Reconnaissance Satellites,
Relay Satellites
Air baser ISR AWACS/AEW, Air based Ground Tactical Reconnaissance,
Maritime Reconnaissance, Airborne Ground Strategic
Reconnaissance, Airborne Battlefield Surveillance Capability
(UAV/RPV capability)
Sea based ISR Surface Tactical Recce, Sub-surface Tactical Recce, Strategic
Recce, Coast based Strategic Recce
Ground based
ISR
Tactical Recce, Air Space Recce, Strategic Recce
C4
Command and
Control
Strategic C2, Tactical C2, Politics Military C2, Inter Services
Integration
Communications Utilization of EM Spectrum, Communication System,
Communication Security, Merger with National Telecom
System
Computers Computing Power, Software capability, Knowledge
processing and Automated Decision Making Capability
System
Integration
Data Fusion, National Level Interoperability, Inter Services
Operability, Integration of ISR, C2, ILSS with Lethal
System, Fault Tolerant Communication / Computing,
Interoperability Standards
Information Warfare (IW) Operations Security, Psychological Operations, EW,
Deception Lethal IW, Non Lethal IW, Cryptology, Computer
Security, Info Security, Intelligence
ILSS Armed Forces Resources, Logistics Infrastructure, Material
Management, National Resources, Inter Service Integration

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Modified Adaptive Dynamic Model (MADM)
• Off shoot of Lanchester Models
• J.M. Epstein
• Use of Exchange Ratio and
Prosecution Rate
• Parameters reflecting ability to
concentrate fire in engagements
• Uses Force strength instead of
Numerical Strength
• Withdrawal and reinforcements
• Close Air Support to Ground Forces
Extensions
• Air to Air Combat
• Naval Combat
including sub surface
• use of Weapon Power
Scores instead of
WEI for Force
Strength
• Estimation of
parameters based on
realistic data

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• Initial Force Strengths
of the Forces
• Force Strength
Reinforcement on each
day
• Force Strength Attrition
Rate
• Exchange Ratio
• Threshold Attrition
Rates
• Number of Close Air
Support (CAS) Aircraft
• CAS daily Sortie rate
per Aircraft
• CAS aircraft Attrition
rate per sortie
• Battle termination
Conditions
Force
Strength loss
and Aircraft
Attrition per
day
OUTPUT
INPUT
Modified
Adaptive
Dynamic
Model

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SIDE A SIDE B
Ground Forces Ground Forces
CAS Forces CAS Forces
AD Fighters
AD Fighters
AD Escorts
AD Escorts

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Test Scenario – Country A Strike
Corps attacking Country B holding forces
Force with
Country A
Force with
Country B
1 Armoured
Division
2 Infantry Division
1 Independent
Armoured Brigade
3 Independent
Armoured Brigades
3 Infantry
Divisions
1 Armoured
Regiment

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Total FS available (x1000)
Country A
1 Armoured Division + 3 Infantry Division + 1
Independent Armed Bde
= 910.6 + 3 x 184.5 + 359.9 = 1824
Country B
2 Infantry Division + 3 Independent Armed Bde + 2
Armoured Regiments
= 2 x 152.3 + 3 x 266.2 + 88.7 = 1191.9
Force Strength Ratio (FSR (A/B)) = 1.53

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Mobilizations Schedule
Ith
Day Country A (Attacker) Country B (Defender)
Force FS
(x1000)
Force FS
(x1000)
1 2 Infantry Division
= 2 x 184.5
369 2 Infantry Bde + 1
Integral Armed
Regt = 2 x 1/3 x
152.3 + 1/3 x
266.2
190.3
2 2 Armed Bdes =
2 x 359.9
719.8 2 Armed Bde + 1
Inf. Bde = 2 x
266.2 + 1/3 x
152.3 = 532.4 +
50.8
583.2
3 Armoured
division -
Armoured Bde =
910.6 - 359.9
550.7 1 Armed Bde =
266.2
266.2
4 Infantry Division 184.4 1 Infantry Division 152.3

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Results of Test Scenario
o=2.0 a = d = 0.035
Day FS
attacker
(remaining
)
FS
defen
der
(remai
ning)
Thresho
ld
attacker
Thresh
old
defend
er
FSR
1 369.00 193.10 184.50 127.50 1.9390
2 1041.16 583.56 520.58 390.99 1.7842
3 1527.58 675.61 763.79 452.66 2.2610
4 1613.37 656.90 806.69 440.12 2.4561
5 1501.68 496.89 806.69 440.12 3.0221
6 1395.64 354.74 806.69 440.12 3.9343

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Performance Index
ATK (A) DEF (B)
TFS (a) 1823.9 1192
RFS (b) 1395.64 354.74
FSL(a-b) 428.26 837.26
FSL/TFS (X) 0.235 0.70
PI = X(B)/X(A) 0.70/0.235 = 2.99

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The NEED and Proposed
Approaches

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Intelligent Weapon Power
Score
Self
Protection
Index
Integration
IndexLethality Operability
Index
On-Board
Weapons
Capability
On- Board Self
Defence
Capability
Night / All
Weather
Capability
Ability to get
connected to
C3I System
Information
processing
Foresight and
Learning
Decision
Making

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Network Centric Operations
NCO is a theory which proposes that the application of information age concepts
to speed communications and increase situational awareness through
networking improves both the efficiency and effectiveness of military operations.
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Taxonomy of Network Centric Warfare
Architectures
©59
Architecture Characteristics
A. Centralized One central high value Hub – other low value nodes networked
and controlled by Hub
B. Hub-Request “Type E” Request based plus one or more central high value hubs
C. Hub-Swarm “Type G” Swarming plus one of more central high value hubs
D. Joint Mixture of other six types (Type A, Type B, Type C, Type E, Type F
and Type G)
E. Request-Based Nodes of same value, but with different specialized capabilities.
Request for service between nodes of different kinds
F. Mixed Mixture of “Request-Based” and “Swarming”
F1: Limited Types Small number of node types (includes the case of separate sensor,
engagement, and C2 grids”
F2: Commonality Nodes are different, but have significant commonality
G. Swarming Nodes identical or nearly so
G1: Emergent Swarming Nodes follow simple rules, like insects
G2: Situationally Aware
Swarming
Nodes share information to build up Situational Awareness
picture
G2(a): Orchestrated One node is a temporary “leader”
G2(b): Hierarchical Nodes are arranged in a Hierarchy
G2(c): Distributed No Leader or Hierarchy

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The Fifth C in C5ISR
Comprehensive Integrated
Warfare –
A Revolution in Search of
Doctrine
Weapons + C4ISR ≠ C5ISR
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Comprehensive Integrated Military Doctrine
Military Doctrine is defined as a comprehensive system of views and procedures
for conduct of future wars including various military operations, established by
military experts, technologists and armed forces, in the likely threat
environment, and within the purview of present force structures.
The doctrine is subject to periodic reviews and analysis and is evolved taking into
account the dynamic geo-political, economic and technological trends in the
world scenarios. Also such a doctrine should be freely available as a
comprehensive document, so as to give a common basis for decision making at
all level of military and defense hierarchy of the nation.
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National Security Doctrines
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Doctrines Domain Aim(s)
1. POLITICAL DOCTRINE
 International
Relations
 Foreign Policy
 Diplomacy
 Politics
 How to Avoid war
 If imposed, how to
support war
2. MILITARY DOCTRINE
 Army
 Navy
 Air Force
 Space Force
 Joint Operations
 How to wage war
3. ECONOMIC
DOCTRINE
 Economic Policy
 Industrial Policy
 How to support and
sustain war
4. INTELLIGENCE
DOCTRINE
 Intelligence
Agencies
 Analysis Agencies
 How to collect,
process and
disseminate
information for
timely decision
making
5. WMD DOCTRINE
 NBC Policy
 Peaceful Nuclear
Uses
 How to deal with
enemy’s WMDs and
deploy own WMD
6. SPACE DOCTRINE
 Space Plans
 Communication,
Reconnaissance &
Spy Satellites
 Launch Vehicles
 How to support (1) -
(5) by providing near
real time information
to analysts
7. CYBERPACE/
INFORMATION
WARFARE DOCTRINE
 Cyber Space
 Audio Visual & print
Media
 Propaganda
 Propaganda in
cyberspace
 Counter enemy
propaganda

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Anti ISR Attack
Anti C4 Attack
Anti EW Attack
Anti ILS Attack
Strategic Attack
Attack against enemy
Mobile Unit
Attack Levels
Border
FWD Deployed
Highly Mobile
smaller Units
(screen force)
Airborne Surveillance
Systems
Automated
PG Long Range
Missile
Mobile C4 ISR
Centre
Enemy
Fig. 3. Future Doctrine (Highly Non-Linear)
Mobile Armoured Units
The Changing Battlefield – to Non-Linear
Battlefield ….

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Comprehensive Integrated Warfare Doctrine
has to be based on Swarming and Spiral
Swarming
Swarming is achieved when the dispersed nodes of a network of small (and also
perhaps some large) forces can converge on an enemy from multiple directions,
through either fire or maneuver. The overall aim should be sustained pulsing -
Swarm networks must be able to coalesce rapidly and stealthily on a target, then
disserve and re-disperse, immediately ready to recombine for a new pulse.
May 30, 2014 64© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
To defeat an already networked force – which acts through swarming – we need
to develop very complex Spiral Swarms – Swarming the Swarms Doctrine
Doctrine of Spiral Swarms

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WORLD – WHAT IS YOUR
MODEL?
Scenario Writing: Description of future possible situations
and sequences of events, primarily with the intention of
stimulating reflections on possible problems and secondly
to anticipate future developments.

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STEEPV
• SOCIAL factors affecting the area
• TECHNOLOGICAL factors affecting the
area
• ECONOMIC factors affecting the area
• ECOLOGICAL factors affecting the area
• POLITICAL/GEO-POLITICAL factors
affecting the area
• HUMAN VALUES affecting the areas© Crafitti Consulting Private Limited66

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China Takes Pakistan – A Scenario by 2017-2022
Scenario: Pakistan supported, penetrated and engulfed by China - 2017-2022
timeframe
The process of Chinese support to Pakistan is an ongoing process. Since 2010,
China has 11000 soldiers in POK. This is close to 2+ Infantry brigades equivalent
strength. Chinese are involved in building the Gwadar port – a very strategic
conduit to middle-east and of course to Africa as well. Besides, China has been
providing arms and ammunition to Pakistan Military forces for many decades
now. Chinese are in. They are considered the thick friends by Pakistani Military.
• USA is a declining superpower.
• China is pursuing Deng’s reforms of 1978. The Deng reforms very clearly
articulate the “superpower” phase that China has entered since the start of
this century.
• Pakistan is failing if not already a failed state. Living under drones 24x7 has
made many Pak-Afghan areas border residents anti-US. The people also may
be shifting towards Chinese, thinking of China to be their long-term savior.
May 30, 2014 67© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.

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Comprehensive Integrated Evolution
of Scenarios
• SEMINAR GAMING
• PLAYING THE SEMINAR GAME
• ANALYZING THE GAMES
• CREATING STRATEGIC INSIGHTS
• DEVELOPING THESE INSIGHTS
INTO CAPABILITIES
May 30, 2014 68© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
HAVE WE PLAYED ANY OF THE WARGAME THAT WE
DEVELOPED? ARE THERE ANY INSIGHTS, IF WE HAVE PLAYED
THESE GAMES?

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• Germans created Blitzkrieg in WW II. A combination of Panzer armored
divisions with air power. The world saw the implementation of synergy of two
different dimensions of warfare.
• The Air-Land battle doctrine was the conceptual construct on which US
created Operation Desert Storm in 1991 against Iraq. It was an
unprecedented success with almost 2 months of continuous air-operations
before starting the armor action. After the initial elimination of Iraqi ability to
see and observe through various technological capabilities, the B52s
continuously dropped iron bombs that led to very swift ground action and
complete subjugation of larger Iraqi forces.
• Although it was not exactly the evolution of Blitzkrieg that Germans did with
their Panzers in WW II, nevertheless, the world saw the power of synergy of
multiple warfare dimensions. What are the key lessons that a country like
India can take from these?
May 30, 2014 69© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
Needed: Air-Mountain Warfare Doctrine for India

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Needed: Air-Mountain Warfare Doctrine for India
India faces two very hostile foes in Pakistan and China. The military problem is
that the borders with both these countries are very different. For example,
against Pakistan the armour based operations are possible although the line of
sight in plains of Punjab may be less than 800m, yet tanks have fairly open space
to make deep inroads. Desert with more than 1000 m line of sight and large open
space is definitely a tank warfare arena.
It is really against China, India faces a very different terrain. The tank operations
in mountains are extremely difficult and in fact likely to be useless as tanks may
become sitting ducks when their mobility is either not possible or at best reduced
considerably. The infantry becomes the key force for the army.
The next dimension of warfare – that is the air is available to create a possible
synergy to create military capability and operations that are more potent and
efficient. The nature of war against Pak and against China will be different -
hence what will be an armor based war with Pak, will have to be
infantry/mountain + air war against China. Do we have a doctrine for Air-
Mountain Battle doctrine?

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May 30, 2014 71© Crafitti Consulting Private Ltd.
Needed: Air-Mountain Warfare Doctrine for India
The Air-land battle doctrine employed in Iraq by US was developed in 1980s - the
conceptual constructs of that doctrine.
Where are conceptual constructs of India's Air-Mountain battle doctrine? It is
time to debate and create the conceptual constructs of such a uniquely Indian
doctrine?
The current acquisition of C130s and C17s indicates some thoughts on Air
mobility and theater switching of brigade size forces. However, it is very late in
the game.
Following Sun Tzu - why we should fight the Chinese war, instead we should
create the scenarios and reactions where we should be taking initiatives against
China and Pakistan, not reacting to their strategic surprises.
In summary, we need to create an integrated Air-Mountain Warfare doctrine.
This then should also integrate Space dimension, Cyber dimension and Weapons
of Mass Destruction (WMD) dimensions against China.

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Crafitti Consulting
Crafting innovation together . . .
www.crafitti.com
Navneet Bhushan
(navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com)
+91 9902766961
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