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[English]sae convergence2010 final2
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Tsuguo Nobe
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Presentation on Chinese Green Drive experiment at SEA Convergence on Oct. 19, 2010.
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Traffic PPT.pptx
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More from Tsuguo Nobe
■ 2024年のEV市場は低調であるという見方がウォール街のコンセンサス ◎ 第1四半期はBYDのBEVが不調 ◎ Tesla Model Yは引き続き好調、その他、BMW、Ford、Volvo、Kiaが漸く伸びてきた ◎ 欧州OEMの多くが中国系EVスタートアップの技術力に頼る ■ Teslaのトップ経営幹部2名が退社、10%人員削減が激震となった ◎ 特に、廉価BEVとテキサス工場での方針変更が大きい ■ EUの中国EV調査で、中国政府からBYDへの補助金が突出していたと指摘 ◎ 第二位はTeslaであり、その他はGAC、Geelyと続くが、BYDの1/5以下。これをどう解釈するか。 ◎ 中国は、米国のEV補助金に関してWTOに提訴 ■ LFP電池の重要性からCATLと米国OEM(Tesla、Ford、GM)の交渉が進む ◎ CATLの電池が、長期契約により、現在の$120/kWhから年央には$60/kWh以下になる可能性? ◎ その場合、$25,000のBEV製造は容易になる ■ タイとインドのEV市場が引き続き拡大
Japanese 2024 0430_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2024 0430_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■ 2024年の世界のPEV販売は好調にスタート:1月に100万台が販売された ◎ 前年比約63%増 (BEV; 65万台 48%増、PHEV; 42万台 91%増) ◎ 米国:成長は鈍化しているが、BEVは前年比15%増 (Tesla 15%増、Ford 17%減、GM 42%減) ■ 米国EPA、DoT、よりソフトな排気ガス規制を最終決定 ◎ 最終的な規制では2030年に50%以下のEVの製造でも容認される ◎ EUでもOEMは達成不可能なレベルに排ガス目標の緩和を求める ■ BEVの「Next Wave Adopter」が重要 ◎ BCGの調査では、米国消費者の71%がEVの購入を検討している ◎ EV購入者の主要な中央値要件: 充電時間20分、急速充電ステーションへの迂回と待ち時間30分、航続距離は350マイル、価格は$50,000 ■ $11,500のBYD Seagullを米国で分析: これは安物ではない ◎ 仕向け地向けカスタマイズも行った上で安い。 ◎ BEV低価格化 (ガソリン車より安い)の先駆け ■ 自律走行するEVはガソリンの代わりに電力を大量消費する ■ インド市場が拡大 ◎ Teslaもほぼ参入決定。BYD、MG Motor、Hyundaiが戦略強化
Japanese 2024 0331_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2024 0331_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■ 2023年年間でPEVの出荷は1,370万台、世界総販売台数の16% ◎ BEVは950万台 (30%増)、PHEVは420万台 (47%増) ◎10月以降成長が減速 (とはいえ12月はPEV 23%増、BEV 20%増、PHEV 31%増で年間ベースより少し低い程度) ■ EV専用メーカーはBEV販売は伸ばし、レガシーメーカーはシェアを落としている ◎ PEV上位5社の内、 1位 BYD、 2位 Tesla、4位 Geelyはシェアを伸ばし、3位 VW、5位 SAICは落としている。 ◎ BEVでは、TeslaとBYDを合わせた登録台数シェアが昨年31%から36%に拡大 (寡占化の傾向) ■ GMがBEVを作れていない背景には、米国の問題が隠されている ◎ 米国自動車産業にソフトウエア・バッテリー開発の人材が十分おらず、自動車業界全体で飽和状態にある。 ◎ EVへの投資削減が収益に貢献するとして株価が上がり、事業・開発意欲は削がれる。 ◎ 米ディーラーのうち約30%がバイデン大統領に対し、EV化に「ブレーキをかける」よう正式に要請している。 ■ 欧州市場でも中国に対抗する廉価BEVは作れておらず、VW、Renaultが協調か ◎ 欧米市場はTeslaを筆頭に、$30,000以下のBEVを待ち状態で、一部企業が停滞。 ◎ 今年、BYD、Geelyが圧倒的に廉価なBEVを多数市場投入 ■ FordとGMも低価格BEVの開発で連携を模索か? ◎ 但し、Fordには独自の低価格BEV開発極秘プロジェクトがあった事が発表されている
Japanese 2024 0229_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2024 0229_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■ 自動車産業にもブロック経済化が進む可能性が更に高まっている。 ◎特にBEVでは、欧米中の政治的影響が強く及んでいる。(結果的に欧米の弱体化につながるか?) ◎ 中国の位置づけや、BYD、Geelyの動向・分析は引き続き重要。 ◎ 日本は地政学的に比較的有利な位置づけにある。 ■ 世界のBEV市場は成長速度が鈍化しているものの着実に拡大している。 ◎ OEM毎に成長率とその要因を見る必要がある。 ◎ 成否がはっきりとしてきており、方向性としては寡占化が進んでいる。 ■ 現在のBEV購買決定要因は、より長い航続距離、より短い充電時間、価格。 ◎ 煎じ詰めれば、BEVはエネルギー効率改善の競争。 ◎ $30,000~$20,000でエネルギー効率の高い小型BEVを、今後数年で市場投入する事が急務。 ◎ 但し、その市場はレッド・オーシャンになり得る。(日本は現時点でブルー・オーシャン) ■ ナトリウムイオン電池の市場導入が現実味を帯びてきている。 ◎ 特に、今年から来年にかけて小型BEV向けから立ち上がる可能性がある。 ◎ 一方、競争力のある個体電池の出現には時間がかかる可能性がある。 ■ 中古BEV市場に拡大の兆しがある。 ◎ 但し、新車でも売れないBEVは中古でも売れ残っている。
Japanese 2024 0131_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2024 0131_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■ EV市場は拡大しているが、欧米で11月頃から成長鈍化。 ◎ 中国、アジア(タイ、インド)では、EV市場は引き続き拡大。 ◎ GM、Ford、VWのBEV化が振り出しに戻る一方、BEV専用メーカーは成長。 ◎ Tesla、BYD、Li AutoといったピュアEVメーカーは、2020年から今年にかけて世界の自動車市場の1%から7%に拡大。 ◎ 新興国では低価格モデルが需要をけん引。先進国では低価格モデル待ち (BEVが市場性と合っていない)。 ◎ それでも、米国では11月までにBEVが100万台を突破。(Teslaは10月までで前年比37%増) ■ 2023年1-10月の世界PEVの新車登録台数は1,073万台 (市場シェア16%)。 ◎ 2023年全体では1,300万台、2024年には1670万台(以前の予測より78万台減)になる可能性がある。 ■ フランスでは中国製BEV排除が鮮明化。 ◎ 中国製のTesla Model 3を含み、Dacia Spring、SAIC製MG 4等の廉価な売れ筋も対象。 ■ 2024年に向けBYD、Zeely、Hyundai/KiaのBEV新車攻勢が急拡大。 ■ 米国の新充電規格NACSのSAEによる標準化定義がほぼ完了。 ◎ 今後各社BEVの充電能力の差が浮き彫りにされる。 ■ Tesla Autopilotのリコールは、衝突事故をめぐる訴訟でのTeslaの防御を脅かす。 ■ 先月と異なりインド政府は輸入税減額を計画しないとし、Tesla参入に赤信号。
Japanese 2023 1231_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2023 1231_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■ 米国UAWと米3社との闘いは、3社のEV化を更に困難にし非EV市場に留める ◎ バイデン政権はUAWを称賛し、3社のEVへの転換に莫大な税金を投じているが、それは組合員に流れる ◎ 新規工場立地は共和党州に多い (民主党州化が目的か?) ■ EU、安価な中国EVを阻止するための調査で中国との緊張をエスカレート ◎ EUの主張とは裏腹に、欧州でRenault/Dacia Spring (中国生産)より安い中国製EVはない ◎ 欧州の自動車会社ほど中国のEV製造の低コスト基盤を活用してきたところはない ■ 1-7月の全世界PEVの新車登録台数は約700万台(前年比41%増) ◎ 市場シェア15% (BEV:10%、PHEV:5%)、2030年には50% ■ 2030年までに、中国自動車会社の世界シェアは33%に達し、欧米の自動車メーカーの世界市場シェアは、81%から58%に落ち込む (UBS予測) ◎ Teslaのシェアは2%から8%に上昇する ◎ VWはBEVを値下げしてもシェアが下がっている。Fordは生産を拡大しても販売が伸びず、在庫が拡大している。 ■ 米国で非高級車販売台数に占めるBEVの割合は1%、高級車では32% ◎ 2030年までに米国の新車販売台数の50%をEVにするためには、非高級BEVの市場投入が急務 ■ ネットワークセキュリティでもTeslaが最強 (ホワイトハッカーとOTA)
Japanese 2023 0930_Monthly Update 150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2023 0930_Monthly Update 150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■ 中国のNEVの販売台数が今年820万台に達する可能性がある ◎ 中国市場で自動車メーカーは淘汰され、中国系で残るのはBYD、Li Auto、GAC、Xpeng、Nio? ■ 米国でのBEVシェアの伸びは今年年頭から7%で止まっている ◎ 全般的にEVへの懸念は以前より和らいでいるが、低所得層が取り残されていると感じている ■ IRA投資$165Bにより米国で2026年に年間470万台、2027年にバッテリー1,220万台分が生産される予定。それだけの需要が米国にあるのか? ◎ 米国に労働者はいるのか?中国抜きで出来るのか?IRAに対する疑問、自動車メーカーはアイドリング。 ■ Tesla、米国での収益が伸び悩む中、成長維持のため海外に目を向ける ■ GM、FordがBEV製造可能性で窮地にいる ◎ 現実的に内燃機関事業で生き伸びている。BEVは大幅赤字だがBEVの販売比率が極めて低い事が救い。 ■ 高級BEVと廉価BEVが$20K以下と$130K以上で二極化している ◎ より大きな競争領域は$20,000以下 ■ VWがXpeng、SAICにEVプラットフォームとソフトウェア技術で救いを求める ■ Hyundai/Kia、世界で拡大も中国市場で黒星、インドでの事業拡大を強化
Japanese 2023 0831_Monthly Update 150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2023 0831_Monthly Update 150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■ 米国半導体のCEO達が米国政府に中国規制の影響調査と一時停止を要請 ✔ 中国への輸出規制は業界のリーダーである米国を傷つける危険性があると警告 ✔ 一方、政府助成金の支払いも「中国を切り分ける際の制約が厳しすぎ」て遅れている ■ 米国でEV販売の伸びが鈍化し、在庫が積み上がる ✔ GM、Fordは生産ができないのか、需要がないのか。バッテリー生産が間に合っていないのは事実 ✔ エネルギー省(DOE)はFordに$9.2Bの巨額融資、2009年の米国自動車救済以来最大。 ■ SAIC、Audiに次期EVプラットフォームを供給する提携を確認 ✔ 中国自動車メーカーがライセンシーからライセンサーになる ■ Teslaの北米充電規格(NACS)に対しSAEが正式に標準化活動開始 ✔ TeslaもSAEに協力的。NACS規格はJ3400と命名され、年内に策定される可能性がある ■ 中国、リチウム確保ラッシュに先手を打ち、コバルトの国有備蓄量を増加させ、ガリウムとゲルマニウムに輸出規制 ■ 自動運転(Level 4)商用化に現実味 ✔ 例:Tesla、VW、Aurora
Japanese 2023 0731_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2023 0731_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■ BEVの販売は拡大しているものの、BEVに対するネガティブな印象もまだ残っている ◎ 充電インフラ、価格、走行距離等 ■ 欧州高級車OEMはEV化に技術で生き残る道を見出しつつあるが、欧米ともに既存量産車OEMはEV化に苦戦している ◎ $27,000程度のBEVを来年~25年にかけて量産できなければ生き残れない可能性がある ■ Teslaの北米充電規格(NACS)が技術力で米国標準化、ドミノ倒し ◎ Ford、GMの採用に続き、多くの充電ベンダーが対応表明 ■ トヨタのEV化に伴う、事前次世代技術説明と株主総会で株価が押しあがった ◎ 製造技術(ギガキャスト導入)、空気力学、バッテリー技術 (個体とLFP)、小型eAxle、パワー半導体 ■ Mercedes-Benz、世界初の認証された自動運転レベル3をカリフォルニア州に投入 ◎ 但し、現状時速40マイル(時速64km)まで。最終的には時速80マイル(130km)での走行を目標 ◎ また、今後レベル3での更に詳細な問題点が浮き彫りになる可能性大 ■ HyundaiがSamsung、SK、LGとEVアライアンスを結成 ◎ 鉄鋼最大手Poscoがバッテリー資源からリサイクルまで参入していることも韓国EVにとって大きな動き ■ 実走行距離、Tesla Model Sが引き続き最長 (669km@100kWh) ◎ これはSDVの効果の一つ
Japanese 2023 0630_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2023 0630_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
重要ポイント ◼ 2023年1月の世界PEV販売台数は前年同期比10%増、世界シェアは11%に拡大 ◼ 中国1月の販売台数は前年同月比30%以上減。PEVは8%減で国内シェアは26%に拡大 ◼ 米国インフレ法の効果として1月のBEVの販売が急増。国内シェア7%に拡大(昨年4.3%) ➢米国EV連邦税額控除がTesla、GM、Ford、VWを後押しあげ、米国への生産移行が間に合わないHyundaiは苦戦 ➢VWは「EUグリーンディール」のインセンティブを待つ間、欧州バッテリー工場計画を一時中断し、米国工場に集中 ➢中国系バッテリー回避のため、米国から欧州まで韓国の電池メーカーへの注目が拡大 ◼ 韓国はハイテク産業の覇権をめぐる世界的な競争に勝つために、半導体やEVなどの分野に2026年までに約$422Bを投入。これまでで最も積極的な取り組みを行う ➢官民で投資額、半導体$260B、次世代自動車$73B、ディスプレイ$47B、バッテリー$30B、バイオ$10B ◼ VWは今後5年間でデジタル化とEV開発を加速させるため、新たに$200B近い投資 ◼ BYDの2023年2月の販売台数は19万台越え、前年同月比119%増。今年の販売台数は 300万台に迫る可能性がある ➢Teslaは10年程度以内に2000万台を目指し、今後$150Bから$175Bの投資を割り当てる見込み ◼ EU委員会、e-Fuelを除外して燃焼式自動車禁止を確定 ◼ 米国で$52Bをかけた半導体の自国生産計画で労働力不足に直面する可能性が浮上
Japanese 2023 0328_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2023 0328_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
重要な点は: ■ 米国インフレ抑制法における車両購入の控除ルールが概ね緩和されたが、米国国内へのEVやバッテリー関連の製造業回帰は加速している ■ 2月1日、EUは米国や中国に対抗するグリーン投資計画を発表したが、既存計画に金額は上乗せせず、規則の簡素化より米国への製造業流失を留める ■ Teslaの自動車産業の常識を覆す最近の価格戦略は、自動車産業の構造全体に影響を及ぼす可能性がある ■ 3月1日Teslaの「インベスター・デイ」、3月14日VWの「EVとソフトウェア戦略を加速させる5カ年計画」は注目に値する(と思われる) ■ コバルト供給国としても、自動車産業におけるインドネシアの重要性が増している
Japanese 2023 0224_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2023 0224_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■ 2022年は多くの市場、多くの企業で、内燃機関のクルマの販売は減少しEVは増加。 ■ 2023年は半導体不足が若干回復し、リチュウム価格も安定する中、インフレでも自動車販売は2022年よりは改善すると考えられている。 ■ 米国インフラ抑制法を逆手に取り、Teslaの破壊的価格戦略が功を奏すか(たとえ市場から嫌われたとしても)。 ■ 中国スタートアップの自動運転化と、韓国のBEV強化は日本のOEMにとって、既に驚異的レベル。 ■ BYD、中国市場の拡大、世界展開、高級ブランド「YangWang」の立ち上げで、BEVでもTeslaを超えるか注目される。 ■東南アジアでEVが拡大。 ■ 再生可能エネルギーの導入拡大と、BEVを利用したVPP (Virtual Power Plant)の実証実験が進んでいる。
Japanese 2023 0130_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Japanese 2023 0130_Monthly Update_150dpi.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
+ 2022年10月、世界のプラグインEV販売台数は55%増 - 自動車市場全体の16%を占める + Teslaは最悪の評判で2022年を終わらせる。 - 実績は悪くないが、Twitterで顧客離れ、レイオフ、値引き、需要減の可能性から、企業価値も大幅下落 - 生産拡大は、他社より良い。来年はCybertruckの生産立ち上げとその人気如何、Model 3の改変等が鍵 + Teslaが韓国を投資先として最有力視していると述べた - EVエコシステムは存在するものの、強すぎる労働組合が懸念材料 + 中国のEV輸出がTesla一辺倒でなくなる日は遠くない - 中国企業が欧州・東南アジア(特にタイ、インドネシア)に積極進出 (販売・製造) + EV減税の制限の詳細設定が3月まで延期される - 自由貿易協定締結国でないアルゼンチン、インドネシア等からの素材金属の「抽出・加工」の解釈等 + 米国が中国のハイテク企業のブラックリスト追加が、貿易摩擦を激化させる - 半導体関連とAI系が中心 + 英国自動車産業の展望、悪化の一途をたどる - 独仏も、産業構造から設計する政府の産業政策を求める状況がある + 米国製バッテリーへのIRA適応でBEVとガソリン車の価格差が縮小する
Japanese 2022 Dec30_Monthly Update_画像圧縮_150.pdf
Japanese 2022 Dec30_Monthly Update_画像圧縮_150.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
■米国インフレ抑制法に対して、欧・韓・日本政府や幾つかの自動車会社から反対があり、サプライヤー定義等で若干見直しが入る可能性がある ■1~9月の世界PEV販売台数が680万台に ■中国、12月には世界PEV販売台数の60%シェアを獲得見込 ■EU、2035年以降の新燃料車の完全禁止を正式に決定 ■BEVのV2L機能がモビリティライフスタイルを変える可能性が拡大 ■半導体不足(と備蓄)により、中国で半導体グレーマーケットが拡大。機能統合による半導体の高度化が急務 ■「自動運転技術では数社しか生き残れない」という点が、見えてきた
Japanese 2022 Nov29_Monthly Update.pdf
Japanese 2022 Nov29_Monthly Update.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
Monthly Update on CASE
Japanese 2022 Oct_Monthly Update_画像圧縮150.pdf
Japanese 2022 Oct_Monthly Update_画像圧縮150.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
Monthly update on Connected, Automated, Shared Services and Electrification of Vehicles.
Japanese 2022 Sep27_Monthly Update_画像圧縮150.pdf
Japanese 2022 Sep27_Monthly Update_画像圧縮150.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
Update on global trends of connected, automated, Service and EV market and technologies.
Japanese 2022 Aug25_Monthly Update_150.pdf
Japanese 2022 Aug25_Monthly Update_150.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
Monthly update on global CASE/MaaS and Renewable Energy.
Japanese 2022 Jul29_Monthly Update_画像圧縮150.pdf
Japanese 2022 Jul29_Monthly Update_画像圧縮150.pdf
Tsuguo Nobe
Market and technology update on CASE, Battery, Energy and MaaS.
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如何办理新西兰林肯大学毕业证(Lincoln毕业证书)成绩单原版一比一
如何办理新西兰林肯大学毕业证(Lincoln毕业证书)成绩单原版一比一
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如何办理麦考瑞大学毕业证(MQU毕业证书)成绩单原版一比一
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如何办理莱斯大学毕业证(Rice毕业证)毕业证成绩单原版一比一
如何办理莱斯大学毕业证(Rice毕业证)毕业证成绩单原版一比一
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Learn about ESP, its role in vehicle safety, common causes like sensor malfunctions or mechanical issues, and troubleshooting tips. Don't ignore the warning; prioritize your Mercedes' safety for continued reliability.
What Does It Mean When Mercedes Says 'ESP Inoperative See Owner's Manual'
What Does It Mean When Mercedes Says 'ESP Inoperative See Owner's Manual'
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如何办理多伦多大学毕业证(UofT毕业证书)成绩单原版一比一
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[English]sae convergence2010 final2
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SAE Convergence 2010
NISSAN Motor Co., Ltd. Vehicle IT Business Unit Tsuguo Nobe Oct. 19, 2010 Connected Vehicle Accelerates Green Driving 10CNVG-0034
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NISSAN LEAF: Zero
Emission Mobility Smart Mobility
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