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Political Matchmaking Online
Changing the Electorate?
Diego Garzia
University of Lucerne &
European University Institute
Voting Advice Applications
(VAAs)
VAAs are non-partisan online tools
developed by NGOs, Universities and/or
Media Outlets
VAAs help users casting a vote by
comparing their policy preferences with
those of political parties
The VAA compares the user’s profile
with that of each party, and through
a matching algorithm provides a
voting advice to users
History in a nutshell
1989 Dutch StemWijzer (paper and pencil)
1998 First online version: 6.500 users
2002 Success > 2 millions
2003 German version (Wahl-O-Mat)
Results from the 2016 VAA Census
Source: Voting Advice Applications Research Network
http://www.vaa-research.net
Diffusion: Users
Diffusion: Users
Source: Respective National Election Studies
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Greece
Netherlands
Portugal
Switzerland
VAAs as a source of political information
Source: Finnish National Election Study, 2015
59
45
44
29
24
23
19
19
18
14
9
7
5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
TV news
Newspaper articles
TV debates and interviews
Web news
VAAs
Newspaper ads
TV entertainment
TV ads
Radio
Socialmedia (Facebook, Twitter)
Parties' websites
YouTube
Blogs
The Making of a VAA
Statement selection
Inclusion criteria for parties/candidates
Coding of party/candidate issue positions
Calculation and display of the results
Impact on users
Information costs
Political interest
Political knowledge
Political participation (mirror function)
Impact on users
Information costs
Political interest
Political knowledge
Political participation (mirror function)
Impact on users:
Turnout
increase in predicted probabilities, individual level
9,3
9
3,2
12
12
1,8
2,1
4,9
10
5,5
5,4
16
FI2003
FI2007
FI2011
CH2007
CH2011
NL2003
NL2006
NL2010
NL2012
DE2009
DE2013
EU2009
Source: Garzia, Trechsel & De Angelis (2017). Voting Advice Applications and Electoral Participation:
A Multi-Method Study. Political Communication, online first.
Impact on users:
Turnout
impact on overall turnout rate in % points, aggregate level
2,9
4
1,6
1,2
1,6
0,8
1
2,8
6,3
0,7
1,2
1,1
FI2003
FI2007
FI2011
CH2007
CH2011
NL2003
NL2006
NL2010
NL2012
DE2009
DE2013
EU2009
Source: Garzia, Trechsel & De Angelis (2017). Voting Advice Applications and Electoral Participation:
A Multi-Method Study. Political Communication, online first.
Impact on users:
Vote Choice
self-assessment
Source: Respective National Election Studies
0 5 10 15 20 25
FI2003
FI2007
FI2011
FI2015
NL2002
NL2003
NL2010
NL2012
Some FX Strong/Decisive FX
Open Questions
Participation
Is tailor-made, verifiable factual information the key
to re-engage voters in times of alternative facts?
Choice
Can issue-based tools like VAAs lead to the de-
personalization of politics in the long run?
Current developments
VAAs for low-information, low-saliency races:
⇒ SOCIETLY.COM
Horizontal matching
⇒ EUANDI.EU
-US 2016 Primary & Presidential Elections
-Over 500.000 unique users
-Media partnerships: WaPo, Fox News, Huff Post
- All battleground races: 18 Senate + 32 House
-188 candidates and 3760 positions coded
- Large coding team of political scientists
-Currently working on automated coding
What is euandi?
EU28
24 languages
121 experts in the country teams
242 political parties
30 statements (28+2)
7260 coded and documented party positions
IN COLLABORATION WITH THE PARTIES
Thank you!
For more information…
www.vaa-research.net
www.Societly.com
www.euandi.eu
www.diegogarzia.it

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Political matchmaking online: changing the electorate? - Diego Garzia (University of Lucerne)

  • 1. Political Matchmaking Online Changing the Electorate? Diego Garzia University of Lucerne & European University Institute
  • 2. Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) VAAs are non-partisan online tools developed by NGOs, Universities and/or Media Outlets VAAs help users casting a vote by comparing their policy preferences with those of political parties
  • 3.
  • 4. The VAA compares the user’s profile with that of each party, and through a matching algorithm provides a voting advice to users
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. History in a nutshell 1989 Dutch StemWijzer (paper and pencil) 1998 First online version: 6.500 users 2002 Success > 2 millions 2003 German version (Wahl-O-Mat)
  • 9. Results from the 2016 VAA Census Source: Voting Advice Applications Research Network http://www.vaa-research.net
  • 11. Diffusion: Users Source: Respective National Election Studies 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Belgium Denmark Finland Germany Greece Netherlands Portugal Switzerland
  • 12. VAAs as a source of political information Source: Finnish National Election Study, 2015 59 45 44 29 24 23 19 19 18 14 9 7 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 TV news Newspaper articles TV debates and interviews Web news VAAs Newspaper ads TV entertainment TV ads Radio Socialmedia (Facebook, Twitter) Parties' websites YouTube Blogs
  • 13. The Making of a VAA Statement selection Inclusion criteria for parties/candidates Coding of party/candidate issue positions Calculation and display of the results
  • 14. Impact on users Information costs Political interest Political knowledge Political participation (mirror function)
  • 15. Impact on users Information costs Political interest Political knowledge Political participation (mirror function)
  • 16. Impact on users: Turnout increase in predicted probabilities, individual level 9,3 9 3,2 12 12 1,8 2,1 4,9 10 5,5 5,4 16 FI2003 FI2007 FI2011 CH2007 CH2011 NL2003 NL2006 NL2010 NL2012 DE2009 DE2013 EU2009 Source: Garzia, Trechsel & De Angelis (2017). Voting Advice Applications and Electoral Participation: A Multi-Method Study. Political Communication, online first.
  • 17. Impact on users: Turnout impact on overall turnout rate in % points, aggregate level 2,9 4 1,6 1,2 1,6 0,8 1 2,8 6,3 0,7 1,2 1,1 FI2003 FI2007 FI2011 CH2007 CH2011 NL2003 NL2006 NL2010 NL2012 DE2009 DE2013 EU2009 Source: Garzia, Trechsel & De Angelis (2017). Voting Advice Applications and Electoral Participation: A Multi-Method Study. Political Communication, online first.
  • 18. Impact on users: Vote Choice self-assessment Source: Respective National Election Studies 0 5 10 15 20 25 FI2003 FI2007 FI2011 FI2015 NL2002 NL2003 NL2010 NL2012 Some FX Strong/Decisive FX
  • 19. Open Questions Participation Is tailor-made, verifiable factual information the key to re-engage voters in times of alternative facts? Choice Can issue-based tools like VAAs lead to the de- personalization of politics in the long run?
  • 20. Current developments VAAs for low-information, low-saliency races: ⇒ SOCIETLY.COM Horizontal matching ⇒ EUANDI.EU
  • 21. -US 2016 Primary & Presidential Elections -Over 500.000 unique users -Media partnerships: WaPo, Fox News, Huff Post - All battleground races: 18 Senate + 32 House -188 candidates and 3760 positions coded - Large coding team of political scientists -Currently working on automated coding
  • 22.
  • 23. What is euandi? EU28 24 languages 121 experts in the country teams 242 political parties 30 statements (28+2) 7260 coded and documented party positions IN COLLABORATION WITH THE PARTIES
  • 24.
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  • 30. Thank you! For more information… www.vaa-research.net www.Societly.com www.euandi.eu www.diegogarzia.it