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Using Strategic
Foresight to
Reimagine the
Future –
Work, Organizations
and Change
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
This Presentation
A Brief History of
the Future – 12
Pieces of the Jigsaw
1
Implications for
Business and Public
Policy
2
...
Some Cautions!
“The future isn’t what it used
to be” Yogi Berra
“The future will be better
tomorrow” Vice President Dan
...
Demographics
 As baby boomers retire the dependency
ratio changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by
2030
 Some countries be...
Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens
 424 major cities in the world will generate
75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of th...
Globalization
 MOOCs: 101 million
individuals registered for one
of 11,400 MOOCs from 900+
universities and colleges in
2...
Planet in Peril
 9.7 billion people on planet Earth by 2050
 If we all continue current behaviours, we will need 3 plane...
Rapid Advances in Technologies
 Artificial Intelligence
 3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing
 Stem-Cell Therapi...
Technology Will
Impact Work..
 30-40% of all current work will
be impacted by one or more of
these technologies
 Some jo...
The New Economy is
the Gig Economy
 20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig
economy – in Canada and the UK this fi...
New Forms of Organizations
 Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web organizations –
Amazon, Lfyt and U...
Austerity and Recession
 US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada)
and two emerging markets (China and India) wi...
Growing
Inequality
 Canada is experiencing growing
inequality – our top 100 CEO’s
earn the average Canadian wage
($49,510...
Identity and
Meaning
 1 in 5 in the US report being
lonely and 10% suggest that life
has “no real meaning”.
 37% of UK w...
Implications for Business and
Public Policy
The “So What?” Question
The Tipping Point for Capitalism
 Our Capitalist World is at a Tipping Point:
 Capitalism without Capital
 Productivity...
New
Technology
/ Work 4.0 /
Org 4.0
Require fundamentally new kinds of organizations
working in new ways
AI / Robotics / 3...
7 Big Implications for Business
 Agile and Nimble – fast, responsive, strategic
 Bold, Smart and Risk Taking – Always fo...
What We Need To See…
Fewer Headlines LikeMore Headlines Like This…
Think About..
 Work is changing, but immigration policies and
employment law is slow to catch up
 How we tax intangible ...
Implications for Educatoon
Learning 4.0
Shifting
 From a focus on STEM to a recognition that we
need creativity, persuasiveness, collaboration,
time-manegement a...
Back to the
Future…
The Delors 4
Pillars
 Learning to know – a broad general
knowledge with the opportunity to work in
de...
So The Big
Picture..
 It’s a time of significant change..
 More change to come… new
global competitors, new kinds of
bus...
Innovation Arabia 12 Keynote: Using Strategic Foresight to Reimagine the Future
Innovation Arabia 12 Keynote: Using Strategic Foresight to Reimagine the Future
Innovation Arabia 12 Keynote: Using Strategic Foresight to Reimagine the Future
Innovation Arabia 12 Keynote: Using Strategic Foresight to Reimagine the Future
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Innovation Arabia 12 Keynote: Using Strategic Foresight to Reimagine the Future

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Presentation in Dubai, February 26th, 2019 at Innovation Arabia 12 - Keynote Address

Veröffentlicht in: Business
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Innovation Arabia 12 Keynote: Using Strategic Foresight to Reimagine the Future

  1. 1. Using Strategic Foresight to Reimagine the Future – Work, Organizations and Change Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
  2. 2. This Presentation A Brief History of the Future – 12 Pieces of the Jigsaw 1 Implications for Business and Public Policy 2 The Challenge for Education 3
  3. 3. Some Cautions! “The future isn’t what it used to be” Yogi Berra “The future will be better tomorrow” Vice President Dan Quayle “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future..” Niels Bohr
  4. 4. Demographics  As baby boomers retire the dependency ratio changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by 2030  Some countries below population replacement – especially Japan, Russia and Germany  Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia, China - in this region Egypt and Saudi Arabia growing very fast  UAE growing, ageing and changing  Immigration essential in many countries – Canada needs to double its immigration to “stay the same”
  5. 5. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens  424 major cities in the world will generate 75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in Asia  New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) – almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa  50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are headquartered in Asia – more to come
  6. 6. Globalization  MOOCs: 101 million individuals registered for one of 11,400 MOOCs from 900+ universities and colleges in 2018 – 45 degrees available via MOOCs  Supply chains are global – look at the BMW Mini 300 options for exterior trim - 15,000,000,000,000,000 possible part combinations.  Mini Parts delivered to Oxford Just in Time – enough for 1 shift. 3,600 parts in a standard Mini (up to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S) – from 47 countries.
  7. 7. Planet in Peril  9.7 billion people on planet Earth by 2050  If we all continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to support this population  Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme weather events – in the Middle East, longer period of hot weather, water challenges, declining outputs from agriculture  Environmental challenges are real and urgent
  8. 8. Rapid Advances in Technologies  Artificial Intelligence  3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing  Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing  Robotics  Blockchain  Human Implants – Cognitive Implants  Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science
  9. 9. Technology Will Impact Work..  30-40% of all current work will be impacted by one or more of these technologies  Some jobs will disappear, new jobs will emerge  Some workers with low level cognitive skills will not find work  We will all have to dance with robots and share our intelligence with machines
  10. 10. The New Economy is the Gig Economy  20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is approaching 40%  Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal employment in Canada, US and Europe  Because of the link between employment and immigration in the UAE, growth here limited, but this creates challenges….  Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to pursue full time work – looking for work : life balance
  11. 11. New Forms of Organizations  Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web organizations – Amazon, Lfyt and Uber are more common models than Proctor and Gamble  Global businesses are:  Aggregators and brokers  Networked supply chains  Using gig labour and smart technologies  Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find them  Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..  Building fortunes on intangible assets, not traditional capital asstes  Lasting around 20-25 years as successful firms
  12. 12. Austerity and Recession  US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada) and two emerging markets (China and India) will have a $400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that will become growingly evident and will be at crisis point in 2050.  Total global debt from all sources (government, corporate, personal, etc.) is currently US$249 trillion.  In the US, to deliver current levels of public services (everything from education to health care to pensions) to the projected population in 2030, taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940 billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170 billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another US$90 billion.  UAE economy healthy (debt to GDP just 17.8%) – but all of us are vulnerable. “We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”
  13. 13. Growing Inequality  Canada is experiencing growing inequality – our top 100 CEO’s earn the average Canadian wage ($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on January 3—the first working day of the year.  During the period 1990-2016, the top 10% of the population in the Middle East enjoyed about 60- 66% of the region’s income.  In Egypt, 19.1% of national income accrues to the top 1% — a higher rate than in oil-rich Kuwait (17.7%).  Social and political unrest (Arab Spring) strongly linked to inequality issues.
  14. 14. Identity and Meaning  1 in 5 in the US report being lonely and 10% suggest that life has “no real meaning”.  37% of UK workers think their jobs are pointless.  Mental health issues – especially for teens – growing  Identity and meaning from work, family, community are all changing  Compassion and empathy in decline as is spirituality  Meaning cannot be found in “stuff” but in purpose and compassion.
  15. 15. Implications for Business and Public Policy The “So What?” Question
  16. 16. The Tipping Point for Capitalism  Our Capitalist World is at a Tipping Point:  Capitalism without Capital  Productivity and Wealth Generation without People  Profit through Scale, Synergies and Spillovers  Time of risk taking and “sunkenness” (risk R&D) – the second mouse challenge!
  17. 17. New Technology / Work 4.0 / Org 4.0 Require fundamentally new kinds of organizations working in new ways AI / Robotics / 3D Manufacturing are not means of bringing efficiency to the way we currently they work – they require kinds of organization which uses people+technology to create wealth R&D is a 3:1 game – we need more of it funded by industry to accelerate commercialization New infrastructure (e.g. 5G) requires Work 4.0, Org and Learning 4.0 – it is an industrial revolution
  18. 18. 7 Big Implications for Business  Agile and Nimble – fast, responsive, strategic  Bold, Smart and Risk Taking – Always focusing on “what’s next” and “where”  New Kinds of Organizations Seeking Global Markets – Uber-like and lean  New Kinds of Leadership and Management – Empowering, Engaging and Collaborative  New Ways for the Flow of Capital – Crowds, Angels and Customers focused on intangible asset growth  New ways of supporting R&D  New ways of partnering people + technology “We’re looking for gazelles & unicorns, not sheep!”
  19. 19. What We Need To See… Fewer Headlines LikeMore Headlines Like This…
  20. 20. Think About..  Work is changing, but immigration policies and employment law is slow to catch up  How we tax intangible assets vs capital goods increasingly determines where growth occurs  How government acts as investors in R&D and when matters  Government procurement can act as a stimulus for effective company growth  Cluster formation supports fast growth of key competitive sectors – but less is more  Challenge can accelerate innovation – think X-Prize and its impact on the development of the CO2 industry
  21. 21. Implications for Educatoon Learning 4.0
  22. 22. Shifting  From a focus on STEM to a recognition that we need creativity, persuasiveness, collaboration, time-manegement and adaptability and design thinking as part of the learning agenda  A shift from a content & teacher focused learning systems, to learner focused systems  A shift from “one size fits all” to a more adaptive, personalized learning  A shift from competition and testing to equity and engagement  A shift from long courses and degrees to short modular stackable learning and skills, competencies and capabilities  A shift from just skills development to developing purpose and compassion
  23. 23. Back to the Future… The Delors 4 Pillars  Learning to know – a broad general knowledge with the opportunity to work in depth on a small number of subjects.  Learning to do – to acquire not only occupational skills but also the competence to deal with many situations and to work in teams.  Learning to be – to develop one’s personality and to be able to act with growing autonomy, judgment and personal responsibility.  Learning to live together – by developing an understanding of other people and an appreciation of interdependence.
  24. 24. So The Big Picture..  It’s a time of significant change..  More change to come… new global competitors, new kinds of business enterprises, new ways of learning  A new global financial crisis..  It’s what we live for, right!  The key – focused and strategic leadership…

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