Presentation to Executive MBA students attending a week long leadership course / experience, July 25th at the Sheraton Cavalier, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

1. RENAISSANC
E
LEADERSHIP
-THE
COURAGE
TO LEAD
StephenMurgatroyd,PhD
COLLABORATIVEMEDIAGROUP INC.

2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I do not own any of the copyrights or licenses to any of the
images shown in this presentation. I therefore fully
acknowledge the original copyright and licensing regime of
every image used.
This presentation (excluding the images) is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This presentation is available now on slideshare.net

3. WHAT
WE ARE
ABOUT
TO
LOOK
AT…
How leadership reflects who
you are and how you present
yourself to others (voice)
How leadership reflects your
values (commitment)
How leadership reflects the
commitment in action despite
challenges (courage)

4. WE ARE
ALSO
GOING
TO
How this strategic foresight / understanding shapes
thinking about leadership
Renaissance leadership thinking
Look at a brief history of the future
The jig saw of elements that will shape how we
build organizations, sustain communities and
enable people
The challenge of organizations for 2030

5. The In-Between Time
We’re in the midst of a significant
change...
In Between
Time
Time and the Investment of Energy and
Effort
SystemMaturity
The 3rd
Industrial
Revolution /
Evolving
Ecosystems
/
Stable
Economies
4th Industrial
Revolution /
Rapidly
Changing
Ecosystems /
Unstable
Economies
Paradigm Shift

6. The In-Between Time Shift
3RD INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTION
• Globalization Of Trade
• Communication
Technologies Driven By
• The Internet
• Microchips (Moore’s Law)
• Biotechnology
• Energy Transition
4TH INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTION
• Artificial Intelligence &
Related Technologies
• 3d Manufacturing
• Regenerative Medicine
• Intangible based firms –
Uber and Amazon + Gig
Economy

7. A BRIEF
HISTORY OF
THE FUTURE
11 PIECES OF THE FUTURE-
PUZZLE

8. SOME
CAUTION
S!
• “The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be”
Yogi Berra
• “The Future Will Be Better Tomorrow”
Vice President Dan Quayle
• “It Is Difficult To Make Predictions,
Especially About The Future..” Niels
Bohr

9. DEMOGRAPHICS
• AS BABY BOOMERS RETIRE THE
DEPENDENCY RATIO CHANGES – IN
CANADA FROM 4:1 TO 2:1 BY 2030
• SOME REGIONS OF CANADA
GROWING QUICKLY – ALBERTA IS
ONE
• INDIGENOUS PEOPLES ALSO
GROWING – A GROWING &
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE
CANADIAN WORKFORCE.
• SOME COUNTRIES BELOW
POPULATION REPLACEMENT –
ESPECIALLY JAPAN
• OTHERS RAPIDLY GROWING –
ESPECIALLY IN ASIA, CHINA
• IMMIGRATION ESSENTIAL IN MANY
COUNTRIES – CANADA NEEDS TO
DOUBLE ITS IMMIGRATION TO
“STAY THE SAME” – 1 MILLION BY
2021 IS ALREADY ON THE AGENDA

10. SHIFTING GLOBAL ECONOMIES –
SHIFT HAPPENS!
• 424 MAJOR CITIES IN THE
WORLD WILL GENERATE
75% OF THE WORLD’S
GDP – 325 OF THESE ARE
IN ASIA
• NEW MIDDLE CLASS (2.5
BILLION BY 2050) –
ALMOST ENTIRELY IN
ASIA / INDIA / AFRICA
• 50% OF THE WORLD’S $1
BILLION COMPANIES ARE
HEADQUARTERED IN ASIA
– MORE TO COME

11. GLOBALIZATION
• MOOCS: 81.5 MILLION INDIVIDUALS
REGISTERED FOR ONE OF 9,500 MOOCS
FROM 800+ UNIVERSITIES AND COLLEGES
IN 2017
• SUPPLY CHAINS ARE GLOBAL – LOOK AT
THE BMW MINI. 300 OPTIONS FOR
EXTERIOR TRIM -
15,000,000,000,000,000 POSSIBLE
COMBINATIONS.
• PARTS DELIVERED TO OXFORD JUST IN
TIME 0 – ENOUGH FOR 1 SHIFT. 3,600
PARTS IN A STANDARD MINI (UP TO 4,875
IN A MINI COOPER S) – FROM 47
COUNTRIES.

12. PLANET IN PERIL
• 9.5 BILLION PEOPLE ON PLANET EARTH BY
2050
• IF WE CONTINUE CURRENT BEHAVIOURS, WE
WILL NEED 3 PLANETS TO SUPPLY THIS
POPULATION
• ALREADY EXPERIENCING CHALLENGES ABOUT
WATER, CLIMATE, EXTREME WEATHER
EVENTS
• ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES ARE REAL
AND URGENT

13. RAPID ADVANCES IN
TECHNOLOGIES
• ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
• 3D PRINTING ENABLING ADAPTIVE
MANUFACTURING
• STEM-CELL THERAPIES AND GENE SPLICING
• ROBOTICS
• BLOCKCHAIN
• HUMAN IMPLANTS – COGNITIVE IMPLANTS
• NEUROPLASTICITY AND COGNITIVE SCIENCE

14. ENERGY TRANSITION
• BY 2035 20% OF GLOBAL
ENERGY WILL COME FROM
NON-FOSSIL FUELS
• SEVERAL COUNTRIES WILL
OUTLAW THE SALE OF FOSSIL
FUEL VEHICLES BY 2040
• SEVERAL LARGE OIL/GAS
PLAYERS ARE SHIFTING TO
RENEWABLES – SHELL, BP
• OIL AND GAS PLAYERS
MOVING TO ZERO EMISSIONS –
CNLR
• BATTERY TECHNOLOGY
ADVANCING FAST…

17. TECHNOLOGY
WILL IMPACT
WORK..
• 30-40% OF ALL CURRENT
WORK WILL BE IMPACTED BY
ONE OR MORE OF THESE
TECHNOLOGIES
• SOME JOBS WILL DISAPPEAR,
NEW JOBS WILL EMERGE – 2.4
MILLION NEW JOBS IN CANADA
BY 2030
• SOME WORKERS WITH LOW
LEVEL COGNITIVE SKILLS WILL
NOT FIND WORK
• WE WILL ALL HAVE TO DANCE
WITH ROBOTS AND SHARE OUR
INTELLIGENCE WITH MACHINES

18. NEW FORMS OF ORGANIZATIONS
• INDUSTRIAL CORPORATIONS ARE BEING REPLACED BY
BUSINESS WEB ORGANIZATIONS – AMAZON AND UBER
ARE MORE COMMON MODELS THAN PROCTOR AND
GAMBLE
• GLOBAL BUSINESSES ARE:
• AGGREGATORS AND BROKERS
• NETWORKED SUPPLY CHAINS
• USING GIG LABOUR AND SMART TECHNOLOGIES
• MOVING GOODS AND PEOPLE FASTER THAN THE TAX
AUTHORITIES CAN FIND THEM
• DISRUPTING ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT HOW WORK GETS DONE..
• IN SOME ECONOMIES INTANGIBLES PRODUCE MORE
WEALTH THAN TANGIBLES – E.G. FINLAND, SWEDEN,
NORWAY, ICELAND, UK.

19. THE NEW ECONOMY
IS THE GIG
ECONOMY
• 40% OF THE CANADIAN WORKFORCE ARE
IN THE GIG ECONOMY - IN ALBERTA IT IS
17% AND GROWING FAST
• GIG ECONOMY GROWING 12X FASTER
THAN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT
• THE UK HAS ZERO HOURS CONTRACTS…
• MANY MILLENNIALS AND IGEN’S DO NOT
INTEND TO PURSUE FULL TIME WORK –
LOOKING FOR WORK : LIFE BALANCE

20. AUSTERITY AND RECESSION
• US, UK, NETHERLANDS, JAPAN, AUSTRALIA, AND
CANADA) AND TWO EMERGING MARKETS (CHINA
AND INDIA) HAVE A $400 TRILLION RETIREMENT
SAVINGS SHORTFALL THAT WILL BECOME
GROWINGLY EVIDENT AND AT CRISIS POINT IN
2050.
• TOTAL DEBT FROM ALL SOURCES (GOVERNMENT,
CORPORATE, PERSONAL, ETC.) IS CURRENTLY
US$249 TRILLION.
• IN THE US, TO DELIVER CURRENT LEVELS OF
PUBLIC SERVICES (EVERYTHING FROM EDUCATION
TO HEALTH CARE TO PENSIONS) TO THE
PROJECTED POPULATION IN 2030, TAXPAYERS
WILL NEED TO FIND AN ADDITIONAL US$940
BILLION. IN THE UK, THEY’LL NEED TO FIND
ANOTHER US$170 BILLION, AND IN CANADA
THEY’LL NEED TO FIND ANOTHER US$90 BILLION.
“We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”

21. GROWING
INEQUALITY
• IN THE US: THE TOP 1%
GAINED $21 TRILLION IN
WEALTH SINCE 1989
WHILE BOTTOM HALF
LOST $900 BILLION.
• NEARLY HALF OF ALL
GLOBAL PAY IS SCOOPED
UP BY JUST 10% OF
WORKERS
• CANADA IS EXPERIENCING GROWING
INEQUALITY – OUR TOP 100 CEO’S
EARN THE AVERAGE CANADIAN WAGE
($49,510) BY 11:47 A.M. ON JANUARY
3—THE FIRST WORKING DAY OF THE
YEAR.
• FEWER THAN 90 FAMILIES IN CANADA
HOLD ROUGHLY AS MUCH WEALTH
AS EVERYONE LIVING IN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR,
NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND COLLECTIVELY.

22. IDENTITY AND
MEANING
• 1 IN 5 IN THE US REPORT BEING
LONELY
• 18% OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THE UK
REPORT ”LIFE IS NOT WORTH LIVING”
• MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES –
ESPECIALLY FOR TEENS – GROWING
• IDENTITY AND MEANING FROM
WORK, FAMILY, COMMUNITY ARE ALL
CHANGING
• COMPASSION AND EMPATHY IN
DECLINE AS IS SPIRITUALITY
• MEANING CANNOT BE FOUND IN
“STUFF” BUT IN PURPOSE AND
COMPASSION

23. THEN WE HAVE
ALBERTA..
SPECIFIC CHALLENGES

24. ALBERTA ECONOMY..
• ALBERTA 9TH WEALTHIEST JURISDICTION IN THE
WORLD BY GDP PER CAPITA
• GDP GROWTH 0.7% FORECAST TO RISE IN 2020 TO
1.6%
• POPULATION GROWTH EXPECTED AT 1.5% IN 2019
– 6.4 MILLION BY 2046
• UNEMPLOYMENT AT 6.7% (MAY 2019) - 2.4
MILLION IN WORK
• YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT 34.7% (15-24 WITH 66%
PARTICIPATION RATE)
• MERCHANDISE EXPORTS HIGHEST IN A DECADE
• OIL PRODUCTION RISING
• OIL AND GAS MORE EFFICIENT THAN EVER BEFORE
– USES FEWER PEOPLE TO ACHIEVE RESULTS BUT
CAPITAL INVESTMENT DOWN
• FARMING SHOWING STRAIN – ESPECIALLY GRAIN,
CATTLE, WHEAT
• FORESTRY & MANUFACTURING ALSO SHOWING
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN AVERAGE SALES IN 2019
• GOVERNMENT NET DEBT AS A % OF GDP AT 10.3%
IS AMONGST THE LOWEST IN THE DEVELOPED
WORLD ($9,153 PER CAPITA) - GERMANY IS 64%
OF GDP / $28,356 PER CAPITA / UK IS 86.8% AND
$36.606 / US 104% AND $66,907

25. 4 (and a bit)
SCENARIOS
FOR THE
FUTURE
BASED ON
PETER FRASE (2016) FOUR FUTURES – LIFE AFTER
CAPITALISM
LONDON: VERSO

26. The Four (and a Bit) Scenarios
The End of Capitalism “as is”
Peter Frase (2016) Four Futures
Communism Socialism
Rentism Exterminism
Thoughts
and Prayers
Equalit
y
Hierarchy
Abundance Scarcity

27. ABOUT
LEADERSHIP
THE COURAGE TO LEAD

28. NO DOUBT YOU HAVE STUDIED..

29. RENAISSANCE LEADERSHIP

30. RENAISSANC
E
LEADERSHIP
Practice Personal Mastery
Apply a Glocal Mindset
Accelerate Cross Boundary Learning
Think Back from the Future
Lead Systematic Change
Drive Performance with a Passion

31. HAVING THE
PERSONAL
COMMITMEN
T TO BE A
RENAISSANC
E LEADER
Practice Personal
Mastery
It takes
courage to be
true to
oneself and
to speak truth
to power
Apply a Glocal
Mindset
Understand
opportunity
as others
around the
world see it
and partner
to make the
future
desirable
Accelerate Cross
Boundary
Learning
Learn from
other sectors
and other
jurisdictions
Learn from
the past
Understand
patterns,
systems and
response
patterns

32. SHOW COURAGEOUS LEADERSHIP
Think Back
Think Back from the
Future
•Bring the future into the
present
•Position the Positive – the
future is not to be feared, it is
full of opportunity
•Counter the Negatives
Lead
Lead Systematic Change
•Focus, align and engage
•Challenge, inspire, support
Drive
Drive Performance with
Passion
•Align around measures that
matter
•Engage the community in the
work of assurance

33. COURAGEOU
S
LEADERSHIP
REQUIRES
RENAISSANC
E LEADERS
TO..
Overcome resistance to change, denial of
the need to change and complacency
Counter ignorance
Drive out both the fear of failure and the
fear of success
Overcome the “magic bullet” solutions
offered by those whose real interests lie
elsewhere

34. ..AND
TO
Design ways of working which empower,
engage and enable
Involve others from outside in the inside work
Develop the knowledge, understanding and
skills
Demonstrate their ability to live with
uncertainty, risk and failure
See set-backs as opportunities and moments of
truth for innovation
Have fun doing the work of leading

35. LET’S
MAKE
THIS
DEAD
SIMPLE!
Think ahead
Lead across
Manage within
All from a place of authenticity,
compassion and courage

36. 3 KEYS TO
SUCCESSF
UL
LEADERSHI
P
Voice
Courage
Commitment

37. HTTPS://MURGATROYDD
IARY.BLOG/
MURGATROYDSTEPHEN@G
MAIL.COM