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CATCA Red Deer Teacher Convention, March 2019

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CATCA Keynote on the future and implications for Alberta and education.

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CATCA Red Deer Teacher Convention, March 2019

  1. 1. The Future Isn't a Straight Line from the Past - Challenge and Change and the Future of Learning Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
  2. 2. This Presentation A Brief History of the Future – 12 Pieces of the Jigsaw 1 The Specific Challenge for Alberta 2 What You Might Think About.. 3
  3. 3. “The future isn’t what it used to be” Yogi Berra “The future will be better tomorrow” Vice President Dan Quayle “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future..” Niels Bohr
  4. 4. Demographics  As baby boomers retire the dependency ratio changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by 2030  Some regions of Canada growing quickly – Alberta is one  Indigenous peoples also growing – a growing & significant part of the Canadian workforce.  Some countries below population replacement – especially Japan  Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia, China  Immigration essential in many countries – Canada needs to double its immigration to “stay the same” – 1 million by 2021 is already on the agenda
  5. 5. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens  424 major cities in the world will generate 75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in Asia  New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) – almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa  50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are headquartered in Asia – more to come
  6. 6. Globalization  MOOCs: 81.5 million individuals registered for one of 9,500 MOOCs from 800+ universities and colleges in 2017  Supply chains are global – look at the BMW Mini. 300 options for exterior trim - 15,000,000,000,000,000 possible combinations.  Parts delivered to Oxford Just in Time 0 – enough for 1 shift. 3,600 parts in a standard Mini (up to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S) – from 47 countries.
  7. 7. Planet in Peril  9.5 billion people on planet Earth by 2050  If we continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to supply this population  Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme weather events  Environmental challenges are real and urgent
  8. 8. Rapid Advances in Technologies  Artificial Intelligence  3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing  Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing  Robotics  Blockchain  Human Implants – Cognitive Implants  Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science
  9. 9. Technology Will Impact Work..  30-40% of all current work will be impacted by one or more of these technologies  Some jobs will disappear, new jobs will emerge  Some workers with low level cognitive skills will not find work  We will all have to dance with robots and share our intelligence with machines
  10. 10. New Forms of Organizations  Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web organizations – Amazon and Uber are more common models than Proctor and Gamble  Global businesses are:  Aggregators and brokers  Networked supply chains  Using gig labour and smart technologies  Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find them  Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..
  11. 11. The New Economy is the Gig Economy  20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is approaching 40% (in Alberta it is 17%)  Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal employment  The UK has zero hours contracts…  Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to pursue full time work – looking for work : life balance
  12. 12. Austerity and Recession  US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada) and two emerging markets (China and India) have a $400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that will become growingly evident and at crisis point in 2050.  Total debt from all sources (government, corporate, personal, etc.) is currently US$249 trillion.  In the US, to deliver current levels of public services (everything from education to health care to pensions) to the projected population in 2030, taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940 billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170 billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another US$90 billion. “We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”
  13. 13. Growing Inequality  Canada is experiencing growing inequality – our top 100 CEO’s earn the average Canadian wage ($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on January 3—the first working day of the year.  Fewer than 90 families in Canada hold roughly as much wealth as everyone living in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island collectively owns.
  14. 14. Identity and Meaning  1 in 5 in the US report being lonely  18% of young people in the UK report ”life is not worth living”  Mental health issues – especially for teens – growing  Identity and meaning from work, family, community are all changing  Compassion and empathy in decline as is spirituality  Meaning cannot be found in “stuff” but in purpose and compassion
  15. 15. Then We Have Alberta.. Specific Challenges
  16. 16. Alberta Economy..  Alberta 9th wealthiest jurisdiction in the world by GDP per capita  GDP growth strong at 2.4% (2018) but expected to slow in 2019  Oil and gas highly profitable and more efficient than ever before – uses fewer people to achieve better results  Unemployment at 7.3% - 2.3 million in work  Farming showing strain – especially grain, cattle, wheat  Forestry also showing lower production and sales  Bankruptcies up 6.7%  Government debt as a % of GDP at 19.5% is amongst the lowest in the developed world ($10,247 per capita) - Germany is 64% of GDP / $28,356 per capita
  17. 17. Developments in Education In Canada  School Boards modified or abolished in New Brunswick (1996) Newfoundland and Labrador (2018), PEI (2015) and under review in Manitoba.  Quebec has made clear it intends to abolish them in 2019-20.  BC / Saskatchewan has “neutered” school boards, giving significant power to the Minister to intervene, but operating agreement with School Boards to minimize the role of Minister..  Unions challenged in Canada – Saskatchewan, Manitoba, BC, Ontario – UPC policy is to split the ATA  No real partnership between Government of Alberta and the ATA – on paper yes, in practice….  Gradual shift towards GERM and away from equity-based policies – Ontario leading this shift, but others not far behind
  18. 18. Alberta Education  PISA results strong – Alberta is 1st in Canada and a top performing nation  Experiencing real growth in student volumes – growing by 2.1% per annum to 2041  Education spending (K-12) expected to be $8.5 billion in 2019-20 and $9 billion in 2020/21 – lowest rate of spending growth in Canada, spending down per capita since 2009/10  Class size, inclusion, public assurance, assessment and curriculum are the current obsessions  Auditor General (2018) noted the lack of effective management of class-size funding  Major curriculum change Grades 5-12 to be signed off 2019-2022  No work on assessment related to the new curriculum – new curriculum / old assessment – go figure!  Biggest challenge: literacy – 49% of those who complete PIAAC in 2013 were at Level 1 and 2 literacy – 95% of all jobs advertised since 2013 require Levels 3-5.
  19. 19. Future Scenarios
  20. 20. Government Takes All  Preoccupation with institutional policy changes (i.e. curriculum review, standards of practice) are offered by government as substitutes for addressing systemic unsustainable teaching and learning conditions  Schools get more blame for economic failures  Pressure to support GERM grows  Government decides it needs more hands-on control of school systems  School board rationalization, ATA split and “the union” is seen to be “part of the problem” not part of the solution  Funding increasingly tied to outcomes and performance
  21. 21. Status Quo with Less  The ‘PISIfiction’ of teaching and learning: teachers’ practice informed by research is increasingly hollowed-out by growing influence of the PISA, PIAAC, TIMSS etc.  League tables, high stakes testing and teacher quality assessments focus attention on “results” and “performance”  Performance pay for teachers  Budget cuts so as to "balance the budget” – system rationalizations
  22. 22. Total Disruption
  23. 23. A Designed Future  Substantive reforms in early learning and investments to support inclusion and social cohesion create optimal conditions for teaching and learning including investments to support school networks of innovation focussed on equity.  True partnership between teachers, school boards and government  Role of government is to create a frame and provide funds, school boards create momentum but schools are the key focal points for local decisions  Data is used by teachers for learning not by systems for fund allocation
  24. 24. You Might Want to Think About
  25. 25. Some Possibilities..  Significant budget reductions post 2019 election – 8-15%  Continued economic and social change and their implications for the focus for learning – the new curriculum will be out of date at launch  Emerging pedagogy – technology enabled, blended learning – and the implications of these developments for professional development  Growing complexity of classrooms in Alberta – class size and inclusion growing issues  Shifting expectation of employers and parents (especially immigrant parents)..  Disruption following teacher action if an attempt is made to split the ATA  PISA envy coming again to a jurisdiction near you…
  26. 26. So The Big Picture..  It’s a time of significant change..  More change to come…  It’s what we live for, right!  The key – focused and strategic leadership…
  27. 27. murgatroydstephen@gmail.com @murgatroydsteph