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The Future of Television
Mark Suster
PaidContent โ€“ November 2011
@msuster
So Interactive, Digital TV is Right Around the Corner?
Nobody Believes it Because Weโ€™ve Cried Wolf for 20
Years
This Has Led Our Industry to Become
Frogs Boiling in Water
Metaphor: put a frog into boiling water and it
jumps out, put it in cold water & slowly turn up
temperature and it boils to death
โ€œWe Overestimate the Impact of Tech on 3-year
Horizon & Underestimate on 10-yearโ€
- Bill Gates
I Would Argue That the Massive Change in Television
Will Accelerate in 2012
1. Massive decrease in costs of capturing & processing video
2. Significant penetration in broadband, increases in Wi-Fi
3. Huge advances in compression
4. Massively distributed advertising market
5. Decreasing traditional paychecks to creative talent
6. Consumer behavior has made Internet video a reality
Bundled TV Will be the Album of the Future
And The Same Forces that Killed the Album Will Kill
โ€œThe Bundleโ€
1. Disruptive technology that breaks the distribution
strangle hold of content
2. Massive costs reductions in capture, process &
distribute
3. Consumer choice
YouTube is the New Comcast โ€ฆ And Notice the
Change in Branding
And My Bet is that The Future Distributors Are
Not Who Most TV Execs Think
So Why Now?
Americans watch 5.3 hours of TV / Day
TVReading
< 1 Hour
5.3 Hours
Media Patterns
Online
3 Hours
Itโ€™s Not Just Dogs on Skateboards Anymore
A Disruptive Breed of Digital Content Producer
Has Emerged
UGC Network TVYouTube
TV
Production
Costs/Minute
$100-400
$6,000-8,000
$50-100k
These 4 Companies Alone Doing > 3 Billion Video
Views / Month
YouTube
TV
Costs/
Minute
With YouTube Content Distribution is Much More
Predictable and Content Producers Have a Direct
Relationship with Viewers
ViewerViewer
๏ƒผ Subscribers
๏ƒผ Email Lists
๏ƒผ Facebook Connect
YouTubeYouTubeProducerProducer
Youth Demo Already 1/3rd
of Time Online
Watching Video
Streaming Video
Other Surfing
And Revenue Becoming Substantive
How Mainstream? 86% of All Internet Watch
Online Video
Aug 11
42 billion views
185 million viewers
228 videos / person
17 hours
91% of Households Still Pay for TV (91%)
This Market Disruption Will
Be Enormous โ€“ And Itโ€™s
Accelerating Now
Donโ€™t Be a Frog. Get Ahead of the Curve.
</end>
Thank you

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Future of TV

  • 1. The Future of Television Mark Suster PaidContent โ€“ November 2011 @msuster
  • 2. So Interactive, Digital TV is Right Around the Corner?
  • 3. Nobody Believes it Because Weโ€™ve Cried Wolf for 20 Years
  • 4. This Has Led Our Industry to Become Frogs Boiling in Water Metaphor: put a frog into boiling water and it jumps out, put it in cold water & slowly turn up temperature and it boils to death
  • 5. โ€œWe Overestimate the Impact of Tech on 3-year Horizon & Underestimate on 10-yearโ€ - Bill Gates
  • 6. I Would Argue That the Massive Change in Television Will Accelerate in 2012 1. Massive decrease in costs of capturing & processing video 2. Significant penetration in broadband, increases in Wi-Fi 3. Huge advances in compression 4. Massively distributed advertising market 5. Decreasing traditional paychecks to creative talent 6. Consumer behavior has made Internet video a reality
  • 7. Bundled TV Will be the Album of the Future
  • 8. And The Same Forces that Killed the Album Will Kill โ€œThe Bundleโ€ 1. Disruptive technology that breaks the distribution strangle hold of content 2. Massive costs reductions in capture, process & distribute 3. Consumer choice
  • 9. YouTube is the New Comcast โ€ฆ And Notice the Change in Branding
  • 10. And My Bet is that The Future Distributors Are Not Who Most TV Execs Think
  • 12. Americans watch 5.3 hours of TV / Day TVReading < 1 Hour 5.3 Hours Media Patterns Online 3 Hours
  • 13. Itโ€™s Not Just Dogs on Skateboards Anymore
  • 14. A Disruptive Breed of Digital Content Producer Has Emerged UGC Network TVYouTube TV Production Costs/Minute $100-400 $6,000-8,000 $50-100k
  • 15. These 4 Companies Alone Doing > 3 Billion Video Views / Month YouTube TV Costs/ Minute
  • 16. With YouTube Content Distribution is Much More Predictable and Content Producers Have a Direct Relationship with Viewers ViewerViewer ๏ƒผ Subscribers ๏ƒผ Email Lists ๏ƒผ Facebook Connect YouTubeYouTubeProducerProducer
  • 17. Youth Demo Already 1/3rd of Time Online Watching Video Streaming Video Other Surfing
  • 18. And Revenue Becoming Substantive
  • 19. How Mainstream? 86% of All Internet Watch Online Video
  • 20. Aug 11 42 billion views 185 million viewers 228 videos / person 17 hours
  • 21. 91% of Households Still Pay for TV (91%)
  • 22. This Market Disruption Will Be Enormous โ€“ And Itโ€™s Accelerating Now
  • 23. Donโ€™t Be a Frog. Get Ahead of the Curve.