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The Future of Television
Mark Suster
PaidContent – November 2011
@msuster
So Interactive, Digital TV is Right Around the Corner?
Nobody Believes it Because We’ve Cried Wolf for 20
Years
This Has Led Our Industry to Become
Frogs Boiling in Water
Metaphor: put a frog into boiling water and it
jumps out, put it in cold water & slowly turn up
temperature and it boils to death
β€œWe Overestimate the Impact of Tech on 3-year
Horizon & Underestimate on 10-year”
- Bill Gates
I Would Argue That the Massive Change in Television
Will Accelerate in 2012
1. Massive decrease in costs of capturing & processing video
2. Significant penetration in broadband, increases in Wi-Fi
3. Huge advances in compression
4. Massively distributed advertising market
5. Decreasing traditional paychecks to creative talent
6. Consumer behavior has made Internet video a reality
Bundled TV Will be the Album of the Future
And The Same Forces that Killed the Album Will Kill
β€œThe Bundle”
1. Disruptive technology that breaks the distribution
strangle hold of content
2. Massive costs reductions in capture, process &
distribute
3. Consumer choice
YouTube is the New Comcast … And Notice the
Change in Branding
And My Bet is that The Future Distributors Are
Not Who Most TV Execs Think
So Why Now?
Americans watch 5.3 hours of TV / Day
TVReading
< 1 Hour
5.3 Hours
Media Patterns
Online
3 Hours
It’s Not Just Dogs on Skateboards Anymore
A Disruptive Breed of Digital Content Producer
Has Emerged
UGC Network TVYouTube
TV
Production
Costs/Minute
$100-400
$6,000-8,000
$50-100k
These 4 Companies Alone Doing > 3 Billion Video
Views / Month
YouTube
TV
Costs/
Minute
With YouTube Content Distribution is Much More
Predictable and Content Producers Have a Direct
Relationship with Viewers
ViewerViewer
οƒΌ Subscribers
οƒΌ Email Lists
οƒΌ Facebook Connect
YouTubeYouTubeProducerProducer
Youth Demo Already 1/3rd
of Time Online
Watching Video
Streaming Video
Other Surfing
And Revenue Becoming Substantive
How Mainstream? 86% of All Internet Watch
Online Video
Aug 11
42 billion views
185 million viewers
228 videos / person
17 hours
91% of Households Still Pay for TV (91%)
This Market Disruption Will
Be Enormous – And It’s
Accelerating Now
Don’t Be a Frog. Get Ahead of the Curve.
</end>
Thank you

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Future of TV

  • 1. The Future of Television Mark Suster PaidContent – November 2011 @msuster
  • 2. So Interactive, Digital TV is Right Around the Corner?
  • 3. Nobody Believes it Because We’ve Cried Wolf for 20 Years
  • 4. This Has Led Our Industry to Become Frogs Boiling in Water Metaphor: put a frog into boiling water and it jumps out, put it in cold water & slowly turn up temperature and it boils to death
  • 5. β€œWe Overestimate the Impact of Tech on 3-year Horizon & Underestimate on 10-year” - Bill Gates
  • 6. I Would Argue That the Massive Change in Television Will Accelerate in 2012 1. Massive decrease in costs of capturing & processing video 2. Significant penetration in broadband, increases in Wi-Fi 3. Huge advances in compression 4. Massively distributed advertising market 5. Decreasing traditional paychecks to creative talent 6. Consumer behavior has made Internet video a reality
  • 7. Bundled TV Will be the Album of the Future
  • 8. And The Same Forces that Killed the Album Will Kill β€œThe Bundle” 1. Disruptive technology that breaks the distribution strangle hold of content 2. Massive costs reductions in capture, process & distribute 3. Consumer choice
  • 9. YouTube is the New Comcast … And Notice the Change in Branding
  • 10. And My Bet is that The Future Distributors Are Not Who Most TV Execs Think
  • 12. Americans watch 5.3 hours of TV / Day TVReading < 1 Hour 5.3 Hours Media Patterns Online 3 Hours
  • 13. It’s Not Just Dogs on Skateboards Anymore
  • 14. A Disruptive Breed of Digital Content Producer Has Emerged UGC Network TVYouTube TV Production Costs/Minute $100-400 $6,000-8,000 $50-100k
  • 15. These 4 Companies Alone Doing > 3 Billion Video Views / Month YouTube TV Costs/ Minute
  • 16. With YouTube Content Distribution is Much More Predictable and Content Producers Have a Direct Relationship with Viewers ViewerViewer οƒΌ Subscribers οƒΌ Email Lists οƒΌ Facebook Connect YouTubeYouTubeProducerProducer
  • 17. Youth Demo Already 1/3rd of Time Online Watching Video Streaming Video Other Surfing
  • 18. And Revenue Becoming Substantive
  • 19. How Mainstream? 86% of All Internet Watch Online Video
  • 20. Aug 11 42 billion views 185 million viewers 228 videos / person 17 hours
  • 21. 91% of Households Still Pay for TV (91%)
  • 22. This Market Disruption Will Be Enormous – And It’s Accelerating Now
  • 23. Don’t Be a Frog. Get Ahead of the Curve.