Summary presentation at NY law school symposium on the copyright implications of Google’s library project. Contributed to a discussion about the potential size of the ‘orphan’ issue based on an analysis conducted in 2008. A link to this report is located on the last page of this deck.
2. 2
Introduction
Michael Cairns is a publishing and media executive with over 25 years experience in
business strategy, operations and technology implementation. As a business
executive, Mr. Cairns has successfully managed several troubled and under-
performing businesses, creating new business opportunities, developing new funding
sources and enhancing shareholder value for investors. His years spent as an
operating executive have largely been with brand-name publishing companies such
as Macmillan, Inc., Berlitz International, Wolters Kluwer Health, Reed Elsevier and
R.R. Bowker. As a consultant, Mr. Cairns has worked with clients as diverse as
AARP, Hewlett Packard, InterPublic Companies and Reed Elsevier with an emphasis
on business strategy, market development and corporate development.
His skills and experience include:
Business and corporate strategy development and implementation
Operations management and business transformation
Traditional and digital publishing and operations
Print-to-digital transformation and adoption of new business models
Software development and software services
Mr. Cairns holds an MBA (Finance) from Georgetown University and a BA from
Boston University. He has served on several boards and advisory groups including
the Association of American Publishers, Book Industry Study Group and the
International ISBN organization. Additionally, he has public and private company
board experience.
2
Michael Cairns
Information Media Partners
Strategy Consulting
New York, London, Melbourne
Tel: 908 938 4889
Michael.cairns@infomediapartners.com
Find me:
LinkedIn Twitter Blog Flickr InstaGram
3. 3
Information Media Partners
Michael Cairns established Information Media Partners in 2006 as a boutique strategy
consulting firm focused on the information and education publishing segment. The work
conducted by the firm includes product development, corporate development, sales
management and corporate reorganizations. We work with established businesses, private
equity owners and potential acquirers.
Examples of our work include:
Reorganized and re-focused a $25 million software publishing company by aligning
business operations with client priorities; implementing internal collaboration tools and
project management standards; re-building executive team to focus on effective and
efficient management
Defined a new business strategy for a large non-profit association and advocacy group,
expanding their business model into global markets to exploit their core knowledge and
expertise across a broader market
Led an information technology capabilities review at a large international advertising
holding company. Completed over 200 interviews in 15 international offices and multiple
group focus sessions to define the operational ‘gaps’ between existing agency capabilities
and those necessary and important for client delivery by region
Completed a sales management effectiveness review for a global software company and
defined six key project initiatives to improve sales effectiveness, market development and
account management
We approach our client engagements in a standardized, logical manner which creates the best
environment to identify key business drivers, administrative and logistical road blocks and/or
product or market definition issues. Our investigative approach leads to better insights into
your businesses and supports the development of workable solutions and recommendations
for success.
Visit the Information Media Partners website for more information.
Sample Client List
4. 4
Google book settlement
Summary findings from my report on the Google Book
project:
Libraries will see tremendous advantages – both
immediate and over time - from the GBS, although
concerns have been voiced (notably from Robert
Darnton of Harvard)(4)
Google’s annual subscription revenue for licensing to
libraries could approach $260mm by year three of
launch
Over time, publishers (and content owners) will
recognize the GBS service as an effective way to
reach the library community and are likely to add
titles to the service(5)
Google will add services and may open the platform
for other application providers to enhance and
broaden the user experience
The manner in which the GBS deals with orphan
works will provide a roadmap for other communities
of ‘orphans’ in photography, arts, and similar content
and intellectual property
Summary presentation
at NY law school
symposium on the
copyright implications of
Google’s library project
Contributed to a
discussion about the
potential size of the
‘orphan’ issue based on
an analysis conducted
in 2008
A link to this report is
located on the last page
of this deck
5. 5
Components of the Database
Assumptions on Content:
Copyright books in the database
Orphan books in the database
Books ‘come out of the database’ based on:
Not books
Copyright claimed (left in or pulled out)
Unclaimed/Orphans
6. 6
Data points on Title Count
From OCLC report & Grabois Analysis:
18 million titles in Google Five (G5) Library Partners
A 40% overlap translates to approximately 11million “unique” titles
Over 3 million titles counted in German and French (400 languages counted)
49% of G5 titles published in English: 9.2MM (includes UK and US)
9.2MM/7.0mm = 76% US titles – Reasonable?
Approximately 10,000 new titles produced per year between 1910-58
80,000 title count reached in mid-1980s
150,000 title count reached in late 1990s
300,000+ titles count reached in 2007
Estimate: 7 Million unique titles produced in the US
3 million titles in Books In Print (40% of total 7million)
OCLC: 75% of all titles published after 1945 and 50% after 1974
From Google:
7 million titles
4-5 million titles are under copyright scanned without authority
Multiple editions of same work
Works published between 1923 and 63 in public domain
7. 7
Conclusions (Best Guess) on title counts
7 million unique titles
3 million with clear provenance
4 million – questioned:
15% foreign: 600,000
25% UK: 1,000,000
Multiple editions 20%: 800,000
Other (non-books, photo books, etc) 10%: 400,000
1.2 million balance remaining:
Estimate 50% will be claimed: 600,000
Balance of 600,000 “true” orphans
• Less than 10% of 7 million title total
8. 8
Components of the market
Components of Pricing
Size of database
Competitive pricing
Unique characteristics
Breadth of content
Pricing for Libraries
Assumes campus wide
access
Based on expenditures not
FTE’s
Note sales penetration
levels
Library numbers from ALA
Corporate
Best guess
Flexibility in model for pricing and
penetration
Estimates are reasonable
10. 10
Next steps
Further qualify estimates
Estimate/Build business model for BRR and/or
Google
Financial model
Transactions/volumes
Definition of potential additional revenue streams
Pricing profile for ‘competing’ databases in
library community
Aid in defining pricing
Further estimation on size of Orphan market
Discussion
11. 11
Please review my blog post associated
with this presentation:
http://personanondata.blogspot.com/2010
/04/database-of-riches-business-
model.html
Michael Cairns
Managing Partner
Michael.Cairns@InfoMediaPartners.com
908 938 4889
LinkedIn Twitter Blog Flickr InstaGram