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Tech & Digital Predictions 2017

  1. Predictions 2017: Digital & Tech
  2. AGENDA 1. Tech Trends - what to look for 2. Digital Marketing Strategies - what you need to know 3. Key Takeaways
  3. Tech Trends What to look for
  4. Traditional media consumption begins to catch up OTT and Connected TV Internet-connected entertainment devices are now in 73% of US households. Connected TV accounted for about 20% of weekly viewing time and has increased by 2.5 times in the last two years. Smart TVs are also taking over against gaming consoles as the primary device used to view Internet content delivered to TV. The penetration of connected TV devices and the expansion of over-the-top (OTT) services have further fragmented the viewing TV audience, and the impact will accelerate in 2017 and beyond as consumers continue to take control. Cord-cutters and Cord-Nevers The number of cord-cutters increased by over 15% in 2016, resulting in pay TV operators’ total subscriber count declining 0.6% (about 1.3M subscribers), and a more rapid decline may come in the next few years as consumers try alternative sources of content and the new VMVPD (virtual multichannel video program distributor) offerings. The pay TV business is in the early stages of a major disruption, declining from 94.3% penetration in 2011 to 87.5% in 2015.
  5. New media consumption becomes the norm Snapchat streams over 7 billion videos per day. Twitter and Facebook are snapping up rights to stream live sports content, and YouTube is stronger than ever. You can broadcast live on Facebook Live, Twitter and a host of other social networks. TV will continue to entrench in streaming environments and digital publishers will move to the TV screen. The technology is relatively new, but the trend is clear. We can expect extreme growth in all forms of social video aided by ever-evolving network-connected cameras and ever-expanding social networks.
  6. By 2020, smartphone traffic will exceed all PC traffic globally, and 66% of all traffic will be either wireless or mobile. Importantly, smartphone data usage has nearly tripled since 2015. With more connected devices and the slow but increasing prevalence of the IoT, the smartphone’s dominance extends into the offline world as well. It is the default remote for all connected devices. For marketers, this means that the focus of their marketing efforts must remain on the smartphone, the primary connected device for most consumers. 80% of millennials use their phones in-store, according to DMA, as part of their purchase process, providing marketers with plenty of opportunities to appropriately target these consumers and effect real-world purchases. For everything from couponing to receipt processing to promotions, brands will increasingly adopt mobile as the platform of choice for their shopper marketing efforts. Smartphones as the hub for our digital lives
  7. Prediction 1: Artificial Intelligence gets serious... Machine learning, using large volumes of data to recognize patterns based on similar experiences and predict responses, will deliver the largest productivity increase in 2017. Personified AI assistants, such as Amazon’s Alexa, Apple Siri and Google Home, already have access to billions of users via smartphones and other devices. An increasing awareness of, and openness to virtual tech behaving in a human way is happening, especially beyond teens and gamers. Even bigger profound changes are on the way as levels of human control are ceded directly to AI. Investment in artificial intelligence will triple as firms look to tap complex systems, advanced analytics and machine learning technology. We’ll also see the continued emergence of verticalized AI (highly specialized agents that do one job exceptionally well).
  8. ...and gets a Voice. Enabled by the fast evolution of Natural Language Processing (NLP), voice is the next wave in human/machine interaction and becomes the primary UI for the smart home and connected lifestyle. Currently, voice recognition is at about 92 to 94% accuracy, but within the next 12 to 18 months it will approach 99% accuracy, which will make voice a seamless interface. Consumer adoption of digital voice assistants from Google, Amazon and others will grow large enough to create a competitive market between the assistants. The device ecosystems of consumers will move toward consolidating to devices connect to and driven by a certain platform. Sticking to a single brand will become the standard when it comes to consumers outfitting their homes with connected devices. As a result, the competition between brands vying to become the ecosystem of choice will be strong within the smart home. This will lead to brands leveraging bundle discounts and exclusive services in products with their digital voice assistants.
  9. More than 20 billion devices are expected to be connected to the IoT by 2020, meaning that more than 5 million devices will be brought online per day. Stagnation in the mature market of consumer electronics will force manufacturers to focus on new product categories and ecosystem strategies to compensate. Rather than just being expected to function as a remote control, users will soon expect smartphones and connected devices to learn what they do and perform activities for them automatically. The growing demands of the IoT will drive the need for more antennas. LTE cellular systems will soon require two antennas instead of one, and GNSS antennas will need to have wider bandwidth to receive upcoming satellites. 2017 will be the year of low-power wide area network deployments that will fill the gap left between high-cost, high-function cellular and low-cost, localized Wi-Fi and Bluetooth connectivity. Prediction 2: The Internet of Things goes mainstream
  10. The global market for smart home products is projected to grow from $25B today to a $122B market by 2022. The two main drivers of smart home device purchases are safety and comfort. Convenience, security peace of mind, energy management and lighting will be leading categories in that growth. Compatibility will still be a significant issue because of competing standards of communication and consumer interfaces. So will more basic concerns such as physical space, additional power adapters/outlets, and all the other aspects of owning lots of individual devices. Thus we’ll start to see new “converged” versions of these products that combine a lot of functionality in 2017. IoT data will be coupled with increasingly powerful A.I. capabilities as teams will search through new wireless connectivity choices and protocols to support a diverse set of IoT devices. Prediction 3: Smart home products strengthen
  11. ...and Amazon Echo becomes their gateway. Though the Echo and its siblings are expected to see a great deal of competition in 2017, the device’s overall capabilities, in conjunction with the open-ended Skills platform that Amazon created for it, are proving a winning combination. The Echo’s Smart Home Skill API is becoming the center point through which many other smart home devices can work together. This is turning the Echo into the key gateway device in the home, allowing it to essentially “translate” between devices that might not otherwise be able to easily work together.
  12. VR and AR gain greater awareness and excitement among early adopters, creating opportunities for social VR experiences. Technologies need to improve, prices need to decrease and the range of software options needs to widen, but the future is promising for this industry. While most developments within the VR markets were hardware-based thus far, content creators are expected to move to the immersive medium. In addition to the gaming industry, the media and tourism industries are expected to commit to incorporating VR into their strategies. Going forward, the market will broaden to include AR and perhaps MR. The initial success of Pokemon Go is a wakeup call to any business that hasn’t evaluated the potential of AR as a mass consumer platform. And because AR allows users to see the world around them rather than being completely immersed in a virtual space it is likely to be most interesting to businesses. Moreover as the overall game market decreased in 2016, a healthy AR/VR hardware environment will depend on the non-gaming applications to be released. Overall the real growth for VR, AR & MR is likely to come from commercial applications, which will provide funding for technological advances that will also be reflected in the consumer market. Prediction 4: Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality...
  13. ...surpass wearables. Wearables and smartwatches expand as healthcare tools and will be integrated with other IoT applications. But they continue to face lackluster demand from most consumers after years of mainstream exposure. Revenues for VR and AR-based hardware devices (and accessories) will surpass revenues for the wearables market in 2017. We can expect about $4B worldwide for AR/VR hardware, versus $3B for wearables. Because of lower prices per unit for fitness-focused wearables, the unit shipments for wearables will still be higher, but from a business perspective, it’s clear that AR/VR will steal the spotlight from wearables in 2017.
  14. Worldwide smartphone growth has stalled, app stores have become bloated and difficult to navigate and the general excitement level about mobile app has dropped. The vast majority of apps that get downloaded rarely if ever get used, and most people consistently rely on a tiny handful of apps. Apps account for more than 85% of all mobile usage compared to the mobile Web. Despite the popularity of apps, app usage remains highly concentrated (the top 5 apps accounts for 80% of usage time). Most brands and businesses have found it challenging to actually justify the dollars spent on app development. However, the launch of Google Instant Aps - no app store, no purchase, no download - could reinvigorate app usage into the future. Brands could create one-time, single-use apps that consumers can consume easily and effectively. Prediction 5: Mobile apps will decline...
  15. ...as AI-based chatbots move to the mainstream. Many different flavors of services will grow stronger in 2017. From new types of bot-based software to “invisible” voice-driven interaction models, the types of services that we spend a lot of our 2017 computing time on will be much different from those in the mobile apps era. Chatbot use becomes more widespread. As the capabilities improve, chatbot adoption will grow, with use cases in eCommerce. Chatbots integrated into social platforms can bring consumption directly into those platforms. In addition to possible voice interaction capabilities, chatbots can also become personalized by analyzing available information on the social platform. From customer assistance and technical support agents, through more intelligent personal assistants that move with you from device to device, expect to have a lot more interactions with AI-driven bots in 2017.
  16. It is not a question of “if” vehicles will drive themselves but a matter of when and how will the world change in consequence. Autonomous vehicles begin to see government regulations. Although a commercially available self-driving vehicle will likely not be a reality in 2017, the government will begin to make headway on autonomous vehicle regulation. Lobbies are expected to lead an effort to push for broader availability for testing autonomous vehicles on public roads. Driver-assist systems already in place are gaining strong consumer support and some critical technological advancements in the field are being made. Automatic breaking, car-assisted crash avoidance and other practical assisted driving benefits that can leverage the same kind of hardware and AI-based software that’s being touted for fully autonomous driving will likely have a much more realistic impact in 2017. Most consumers are more interested in assisted driving enhancements, so this could be a case where the current technologies actually match the market’s real needs. Consumers are also increasingly expecting connectivity in their cars but pricing, safety and data privacy concerns inhibit market growth. Prediction 6: Autonomous & assisted vehicles will drive the future
  17. Prediction 7: Smart City implementations will advance connected thinking Smart City implementations finally start to yield a real impact on the citizen experience. Advancements in mobile, sensor, and IoT technology will change the way we interact with the world around us, streamlining everything. Behind the scenes, network management, billing, predictive analytics, machine learning, border control, and advanced security technology will all need to work in harmony to make this a reality. The first implementations will come as municipalities finally dig in and build the network infrastructure needed to support intelligent elements.
  18. It’s projected that by 2018, approximately 69% of all Internet traffic will be for video content. The rise of video is transforming the way people engage with content and with each other. It’s becoming the most viewed and shared content in the news feed. Brands will become more sophisticated in their use of video and at grasping the importance of crafting work for the mobile feed. New platforms such as Facebook Live and Instagram Stories are quickly becoming some of the most popular ways for people to discover and share content. With 87% of consumers using a second screen while watching TV, social platforms have an exciting opportunity to provide a full viewing experience through live streaming. Brands are also starting to use these platforms to tell stories and engage with customers, and these platforms will take off in 2017. This will be aided by new streaming technologies, better content, faster connection speeds, and bigger data plans, which will lower the barriers for adoption and enable more brands to experiment with real-time campaigns. Ad expenditure on mobile video is expected to grow more than 30% next year, according to eMarketer. Expect to see more innovation in pre-roll, live video and video embedded directly into email. Creating video that leverages the buying power of the second screen will enable an increased engagement, expanding sales, and ultimately what we call “return on content.” With the growth of mobile, we expect to see expansion of video in marketing experiences. Prediction 8: Mobile video rocks on...
  19. ...and messaging is the new medium. As 2017 approaches, more people are talking about expanded functionality in mobile messaging. More people use messaging apps today than they do social media. Further, the messaging apps are slowly but surely evolving into full-fledged marketing and commerce platforms. Moving transactions and engagement onto messaging platforms is likely to have seismic and long-lasting impact on mobile. In 2016, brands were wondering how to get into the mobile messaging space and how to integrate messaging apps into their existing marketing strategy. In 2017, brands and marketers will ask themselves how they can deploy dollars in mobile messaging in a way that is authentic and complimentary to their overall digital strategy. Branded content experiences in messaging apps will now be favored. Messaging apps will become the new operating system. The possibility to create branded content experiences will now be favored (e.g., emojis, GIFs, photo frames, photo filters, chatbots).
  20. Prediction 9: Native ad formats grow, but further fragment Display ad formats are likely to continue to decline in relative value. Native ad formats will continue to grow and multiply, creating both opportunities and challenges for advertisers and publishers. On the one hand, advertisers will continue to innovate with less intrusive but more effective advertising formats. On the other hand, the complexity of managing the messaging becomes much more difficult with each new format and platform. More publishers will get on board, including B2B, local, and smaller verticals. Focus will shift to a mobile-first perspective. Visual content, notably video, will rise in relative importance and video ad formats will continue to be reinvented. Pricing models will increasingly move from CPM to CPV models and conversion metrics that put value and premium on engagement. Thus there will be enhanced focus on attention metrics. New ad formats will continue to be invented. Virtual reality native ads will become more of a reality. More DSP prioritization will support in-app native buying. Emergence of more native advertising options in messaging apps and also with p2p marketplaces that are experimenting with new advertising models. Programmatic solutions will increasingly allow for data driven content optimization in near real time.
  21. The continued deployment of 4G LTE-Advanced network will lay the foundation for the evolution of carriers to 5G. A&T, Spring and T-Mobile already announced plans to achieve gigabit speeds in the coming year. Virtualization will further the transition to 5G. More trials will be held to stream live TV over a fixed wireless 5G connection, leading us closer to the “next-generation entertainment services”. Indeed the surge in video traffic is a key driver of the push toward 5G. 5G deployments will move quickly beyond fixed wireless applications and will likely focus on a micro network approach. As part of the race to 5G, gigabit deployments will take off (25-35% growth). Mobile network operators (MNOs) will fully embrace shared infrastructure in 2017. Coverage and capacity challenge for serving large venues and congested areas will continue to grow, driving a need for more economical small cell solutions. To meet this need, MNOs will gravitate toward a shared infrastructure model -- neutral host. This will enable cost-efficient access to the increased network capacity needed to solve these challenges for all operators. 5G’s promise of greater speed and overall network performance brings huge opportunities not only for video but in the IoT, 4K video, A and VR, smart home and cities, autonomous vehicles, and much more. Prediction 10: 5G becomes a reality
  22. Prediction 11: Google’s search dominance disrupted? Voice search specifically has the potential to disrupt Google. Providing a non-visual connection to contextual content, assistant such as Alexa and Siri coupled with the Air Pods are set to revolutionize search. Increasingly, as shown in Google Now, we expect answers before we query the search box. Voice interaction experiences represent a small window of opportunity for competitors to loosen Google’s stranglehold on the search market. For the most part, voice interaction remains an exercise in precision and contextual search results. Just as everyone got hooked on Googling for information, they could easily get hooked into a new interaction habit with a voice assistant that isn’t powered by Google, like Alexa. AirPods, which have been called a computer for your ears, present an always-on, always at-the-ready opportunity for personal connection to content. In 2017, we will see this new product become more and more useful as an interface to AI assistance.
  23. Digital Marketing Strategies What you need to know
  24. 2017 is the year when both clients and audiences will demand new forms of creative work – faster, more relevant and more personal. Storytelling will become a key part of content marketing. To engage with and answer the demands of their audience, brands will have to provide intelligent content and experiences. We’ll see customer service transformed online through the proliferation of chatbots. At first, conversations with these robots may be inferior to service from a human, but will get better as machine learning develops. Getting the tone and content of this conversational commerce right will mean that marketers need to understand the personality of their brands inside out. Brands will have to decide how best to keep up and stay true to themselves as they do. The rise of a new brand experience
  25. Data becomes more human The state of the science is advancing to a point where we can really speak to a ‘segment of one’, harnessing data and tech capability to a much deeper understanding of people and the relationships they really want with brands at different moments. This should make communications more human, not less. An estimated 77% of marketers plan on increasing content production in the next year. Competition will be tight and many sectors are already over saturated to gain customers attention. Automation creates a more efficient process and maximize the content production ability of the brand, allowing them to compete against others in their industry. 80% of today’s consumer data is unstructured. The ability to sift through this data and develop an understanding of an individual in context, will be a key differentiator for marketers in 2017, and the key to this lies in the analysis of unstructured data, image tagging and NLP. Deeper contextual insights will drive customer engagement, notably via mobile.
  26. In 2016, organizations have been taking the steps needed to develop and upgrade their staff, toolset and the amount or type of information they collect, to enable them to really take their data capabilities to the next level. As a result, we’re on the threshold of moving from Big Data 1.0 to Big Data 2.0, and significant, real benefits will soon be commonplace across the business world. 2017 will be a landmark year for data where those companies that take the right steps will be best placed to reap the rewards, both in the next twelve months and beyond. The most crucial issue to tackle will be to redefine our expectations – and understanding – of Big Data. Data’s biggest opportunity is to identify hidden patterns that allow a business to outperform in the future, and correctly highlighting these patterns requires comprehensive data that spans a long time. Businesses need big data management solutions right away. Big Data 2.0 - get your DMP ready
  27. Deeper metrics and audience insights In 2017 social platforms will expand into a richer set of publicly accessible video metrics. Platforms have also began rolling out deeper audience analytics and data signals so brands can see more information about their consumers. We’ll see this expand with features like Facebook's Audience Insights API becoming generally available in the first half of 2017. As publishers, media owners, and app developers see continued growth, they will become more sophisticated in their collection and use of mobile data. Location data, sensor data, and other forms will become a normal trading currency for improving content and advertising. Those that embrace this trend will be long-term winners. 2017 may be the year we finally see actual widespread implementations and usage of beacons and other location-based technologies. In particular, in-store implementations will provide consumers with enhanced shopping experiences. Local-based services fully leverage mobile capabilities outside of the internet.
  28. Teams which are able to adapt at speed, who are comfortable with fluid identities and ways of working, and that genuinely empower diverse backgrounds and diverse ways of thinking are the only ones that will be able to maintain momentum in a volatile external environment. To help brands keep pace with the changing demands of consumers, agencies will evolve their talent profile and we’ll see the emergence of marketing technologists and data scientists in media and creative agencies. Next year will see fresh, innovative ways to collect, interpret, analyse and act on the data available to them. CMOs will be expected to have a blended skill set to drive digital business transformation, design exceptional personalize experiences and propel growth. There will also be a doubling of business-head turnover as CEOs come to terms with what’s needed to propel their company forward in a customer-led, digital-centric business. Agility is the key to momentum
  29. Brands & agencies collaborate and relationships get complicated Collaboration and a move to a new communications business model will be one of the key trends of 2017. Clients are increasingly looking for ways to make their budgets work harder. We will see more insourcing and outsourcing on the client side, as brands navigate this new environment and adapt the way they work with agencies. Agencies on the other hand will be looking to respond by further expanding their offer to adapt and take a larger slice of the increasingly fragmented pie. Another trend we are seeing is that the competitive set is growing, with management consultancies coming downstream, challenging the existing agency model. We will see an increase in this type of M&A activity. Those agencies that can adapt their model and show truly agenda-free thinking and seamless execution will win. In 2017, we’ll see more innovation from brands that aren't afraid to give direction to their agency partners. By the end of 2017, they will look markedly different from one another, creating more choice for key accounts and continuing the account shifts we've seen in recent quarters.
  30. Cross channel marketers need to get it together on mobile for their users Many channels, many devices, one customer. Consumers are increasingly using multiple devices to remain connected - at least 5 according to the DMA. 2017 will be a year for customers to be treated as individuals, with a consistent brand experience regardless of what channel they’re using. Furthermore, customers continue to transact in the offline world with a multiplicity of different identities and across multiple different channels. As marketers become increasingly comfortable managing Big Data and vendors create systems that can target marketing efforts down to the individual, there is a need to have a consistent, unified view of the customer across all those devices and to be able to track all their actions across all channels – offline and online. In 2017, cross-channel marketers — retailers in specific — need to prepare for mobile, the fastest-growing channel in user-shopping experience. Marketers need to show their products quickly and effectively with purchase decisions being made in real-time. The mobile shopping experience will be cross-platform via search, mComm, in-app and social shopping.
  31. Loyalty embraces mobile Thus far, mobile’s role in loyalty has been limited to creating apps that enable consumers to view and manage their loyalty accounts. Expect that to change in 2017, as smart brands realize that loyalty is more than simply collecting points for transactions, but also about engagement and advocacy. The majority of U.S. marketers intend to allocate more of their budgets to customer loyalty in 2017, and about 13% said they anticipate significant increases in spending on such programs. Mobile is the perfect tool to reward brand interactions beyond just transactions. It allows multichannel brands to communicate with and capture transaction information directly from consumers through receipt processing, thereby enabling whole industries to create their own loyalty programs. Forward-thinking brands are re-imagining their entire loyalty programs from top to bottom with a view towards deeply integrating mobile into their programs. 2017 will pave the path for becoming more agile and making data real-time and actionable in the mobile first world.
  32. The continued growth of Programmatic & Header Bidding In 2017, we will start to see the evolution of data science applications as they become more embedded in platforms—“AI layers” that leverage machine learning within platforms, and make things like user scoring, propensity modeling, lifetime value (LTA) analysis, and next-best action recommendations less manual and more automated. 2017 will see programmatic media buying cement itself as an infrastructure that paves the way for traditional channels to move into a programmatic format capable of learning, optimizing and reacting, considerate of data made available from other programmatic enabled formats. The advent of header bidding has created a relatively efficient auction for programmatic ad inventory, increasing ad inventory revenue and decreasing the management time required for optimizing ad performance. These advantages are likely to cause more and more publishers to switch to a header-bidding-first strategy. The current implementation requirements for header bidding are slowing adoption, but the advent of 3rd party tools to streamline implementation will likely overcome these hurdles. If header bidding continues to grow quickly, the traditional ad network model may likely be squeezed out of the industry entirely, as they are unable to bid in the auction for the best inventory, and they have less data on which to bid because they are not in the header on the page. The second likely outcome is that publishers will work with a limited number of header bidders on the page--reluctant to load so many 3rd party javascript tags in the header of their page--and start hosting private exchanges that allow for server-side integrations for new bidders.
  33. Security and Privacy Privacy and security were already a big deal in 2016. In 2017, they will be an even bigger deal all around. As mobile devices continue to become more intimate and indispensable, they capture increasing amounts of highly sensitive data. Random apps that we download will often routinely ask for access to highly personal information. Mobile ransomware is expected to rise with the increase back ups in the cloud by mobile users As IoT devices become common-use, the will also continue to come under attack. Drones will also become more ubiquitous in their use for surveillance. Internet liberty crackdowns such as the introduction of strict data retention laws and laws attacking communications apps as well as attempts to increase mass surveillance will induce a decline of Internet privacy around the world in 2017.
  34. Key Takeaways
  35. People are getting used to living in a world where their demands are instantly met and things are beginning to work automatically in every aspect of our daily experiences.
  36. Machines are learning to think with us and for us. Anything you can talk to will understand and talk back. No matter what you do, there’s a thinking machine in your future.
  37. Iot, bots, AR/VR app and so on are exploding the number of digital customer touch points to consider for marketers.
  38. Anything that can be connected will be connected.
  39. The velocity of data is increasing and distribution channel disruption is accelerating.
  40. Good news: the continued boom of mobile advertising By 2019, mobile advertising will represent 72% of all US digital ad spending, reaching an unprecedented $65.87bn. On a global scale, especially with growing internet accessibility on mobile, we will continue seeing soaring budgets in mobile ad spend. But this also means a growing number of adblockers, and more than 419 million people are blocking ads on smartphones, almost double that of desktops. This tells us is that the quality of ads is not quite matching the momentum of the mobile platform as a whole, and represents a serious call-to-action for both publishers and advertisers to react effectively, otherwise 2017 will be marked by soaring numbers of adblocker users.
  41. InThank You
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