Mining On Top: Stockholm 2013 26-27 Nov 2013 State of the Market: Mining

1. State of the Market: Mining
Presenter: Chris Hinde, London
Researcher: Sussie Gylesjö, Stockholm
Mining on Top: Stockholm
November 26th, 2013

2. ABOUT THE COMPANY
Over 30 years of providing mining information:
Databases, consultancy, maps, reports and conferences
Databases ‒ Lease locations and ownership, company
intelligence, drill results, project pipeline, due diligence
reports, production statistics, finance, M&A activity etc.
Reports ‒ Examination of the trends in exploration, mine
development, metals production and finance.
Events ‒ ‘Mining on Top’ conferences in Stockholm, Helsinki
and London, and training seminars.
Disclaimer:
IntierraRMG makes reasonable and diligent efforts to obtain accurate information for our clients and presentations. No warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy, adequacy,
completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information contained herein. Neither IntierraRMG nor the contributors of data to this presentation shall be held liable for any improper or incorrect use of
the information contained herein and assume no responsibility for the use of the information.

3. FIRST, AN OVERVIEW
Annual global output
ORE
(Mt)
7,000
WASTE
(Mt)
13,000
TOTAL
(Mt)
20,000
Aggregates
15,000
0
15,000
Coal Mines
8,000
7,000
15,000
Industrial Minerals
1,000
1,000
2,000
31,000
21,000
52,000
Metals Mines
Total

4. CAUSE FOR HOPE
Metals demand follows global GDP
25
% changes from previous year
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
-5
-10
-15
Global GDP
Aluminium
Copper
Zinc
-20
Courtesy Professor Phillip Crowson

5. Prices follow OECD output
20
120
100
Non-ferrous metal prices
Industrial output
10
80
60
40
5
20
0
0
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
-5
-20
-40
-10
-60
Industrial output
-80
-15
Note different scales for output and prices
-20
-100
-120
Courtesy Professor Phillip Crowson
Non-ferrous metal prices
15

6. And metals demand is linked to
population and urbanisation
Australia
100%
Chile
90%
COPPER
CONSUMPTION
Brazil
SK
USA:
80%
5.5kg/person
Switzerland
Russia
70%
Malaysia
G
Japan
Urbanisation
60%
South Africa
50%
World:
Philippines
2.8kg/person
Indonesia
40%
Zambia
30%
China
Pakistan
Thailand
India
20%
G = Germany
Yellow = UK
10%
SK = South Korea (17.4kg/person)
0%
1
10
100
Population (m)
1000
Source: ICSG, Raw Materials Group
10000

7. Shape of the international
mining industry
• Surface/underground ratio = 60/40 physical operations
• Surface mines and quarries = 95% of all ore + rock output
• Top ten companies = one-third of mined production
• Total of almost 3,500 exploration and mining companies*
(half of these being located in Canada).
* These companies, and their projects/mines, are tracked
in the IntierraLive database, and their performance
reflected in the State of the Market reports.

8. Recent mining performance
During the past few years, the mining industry has
found itself between a rock and a hard place.
Rock: Falling prices, with little prospect of an early
recovery because of lacklustre demand.
Hard Place: Pressure on operating costs and a
heightened threat of resource nationalism.
Problems compounded by the restricted supply of
finance, especially for mineral exploration
Disclaimer:
IntierraRMG makes reasonable and diligent efforts to obtain accurate information for our clients and presentations. No warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy, adequacy,
completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information contained herein. Neither IntierraRMG nor the contributors of data to this presentation shall be held liable for any improper or incorrect use of
the information contained herein and assume no responsibility for the use of the information.

10. Coal: Price roller-coaster
Story of the whole mining sector!
Australian thermal coal (US$/t)
180
9 month
collapse
140
20 month boom
100
Down again!
21 month
recovery
60
3 years: stable
20
2004
2006
2008
2010
Monthly average price
2012

11. But no energy in coal this year
Continued
slump in
coal prices
Down 16%
before ‘recovery’

12. Still, mining can not be ignored
Extracted total worth some US$1,900 billion pa:
US$700 billion - metals and gems
US$660 billion - coal / lignite
US$340 billion - cement and aggregates
US$200 billion - industrial minerals

13. At the commodity level
Mid 2013
MINED
(‘000t)
Coal
Iron Ore
Copper
Gold
Nickel
Zinc
PGMs
Diamonds
Bauxite
Lead
Top Ten Total
7,800,000
1,900,000
17,000
85 Moz 2.65
1,700
13,000
0.48
90 Mct 0.025
240,000
3,600
9,975,000
PRICE
(US$/t)
VALUE PA
(US$ bn)
85
663
130
247
7,100
121
42,300,000 $1,300/oz 112
14,000
24
1,800
23
30,300,000 $950/oz 15
580,000,000 $115/ct 14
45
11
2,000
7
(124)
1,237

14. At the regional level: African exploration
56.4%
7.9%
7.9%
6.3%
5.1%
Exploration
financing in the
24 months to
end-May 2013.
Total = US$829m

15. Latin American exploration finance
24%
Over 24 months to
end-August 2013

16. Latin American exploration drilling
34%
32%

17. NOW THE CURRENT STATUS
State of the Market:
Mining and Finance Report
Quarter to end-September

18. Global mining industry
End-September 2013
57% of
industry
<US$1m
in cash

19. Global exploration projects
Red – Copper
Yellow – Gold/Silver
Green – Iron Ore
Blue – Nickel/Lead/Zinc
Purple – PGMs
Pink – Aluminium
White – Diamonds/Other
Source: Raw Materials Database

20. Quarterly drilling reports

21. 18-month decline
?

22. SOTM: Mining and Finance Report

23. SOTM: Mining and Finance Report

24. Value of mining deals

25. SOTM: Mining and Finance Report
27% of
year ago

26. Reason for optimism
(RMG analysis)
Extracted ore (Mt)
Forecast

27. RMG analysis of projects
Mining industry capital expenditure (US$ million)
Forecast

28. Long-term demand certainty
Twice world
average
Source: 2011, Minerals Information Institute, SME Foundation

29. If we are all American …
By 2100, every world citizen born will need…
Source: 2011, Minerals Information Institute, SME Foundation

30. Much more copper …
By 2100, every world citizen born will need…
Source: 2011, Minerals Information Institute, SME Foundation

31. Huge new coal discoveries …
By 2100, every world citizen born will need…
Source: 2011, Minerals Information Institute, SME Foundation

32. But we are already producing
enough iron ore!
By 2100, every world citizen born will need…
Source: 2011, Minerals Information Institute, SME Foundation

33. State of the Market: Mining
That’s it, thanks
Chris Hinde
Editorial Director
IntierraRMG
Tel: +44 (0)20 7780 7471
Email: chris.hinde@intierraRMG.com