3. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
In Greece the only institute
which is involved with
weather mod activity is ELGA
ELGA=Hellenic AgriculturalELGA=Hellenic Agricultural
Insurance OrganizationInsurance Organization
4. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
ELGA
is the main public carrier
of insurance coverage
in agricultural exploitation
in Greece
which is supervised
by the
Greek Ministry of
Rural Development and Food.
5. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
The insurance
that ELGA provides
is compulsory
and protects
the agricultural production
and
the livestock
of the country.
6. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
ELGA’sELGA’s
Main Target ActivitiesMain Target Activities
1. Crop Insurance1. Crop Insurance
( Against specific perils( Against specific perils
i.e. frost , hail , flood etc)i.e. frost , hail , flood etc) MPCI systemMPCI system
2. Loss Prevention2. Loss Prevention
7. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Loss PreventionLoss Prevention
Aims
to prevent or to suppress
the Insured
and
the not-Insured
Risks
8. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Loss PreventionLoss Prevention
activityactivity
1.Application of experimental1.Application of experimental--
operational projectsoperational projects
2.Subsidization of protection’s2.Subsidization of protection’s meansmeans
TheThe whole procedure is promoting straight to the insured farmer.whole procedure is promoting straight to the insured farmer.
MainMain Covered RisksCovered Risks :: FrostFrost ++ HailHail
Future interested Risk :Future interested Risk : Flood , WindFlood , Wind
9. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Operational projectsOperational projects
FrostFrost Fog systemFog system
HailHail 1.1. Airborne cloud seedingAirborne cloud seeding
2.2. Hail CanonsHail Canons
10. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Subsidization of protection’s means
FrostFrost Wind machineWind machine
HailHail Hail netsHail nets
20. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
HAILFALL OCCURRENCE
IN CENTRAL MACEDONIA, GREECE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Rel.Frequency(%)
April May June July August Sept.
21. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Evaluation of the Greek Hail
Suppression Program
22. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
A few words before the
results
It’s reasonable to Evaluate
an Operational Cloud Seeding
Program?
23. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
TRESSA FOWLER
No conclusions can be drawn fromNo conclusions can be drawn from
statistical evaluations ofstatistical evaluations of operationaloperational
programs.programs.
No exceptions.No exceptions.
24. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Why Not? or the Bad News
Often no control group.Often no control group.
When there is, usually systematicWhen there is, usually systematic
differences between control anddifferences between control and
treatment:treatment:
not selected at random.not selected at random.
comparison of before and after.comparison of before and after.
Possible hidden cause.Possible hidden cause.
TRESSA FOWLER
25. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
TO TEST
THE PHYSICAL HYPOTHESES
OF HOW SEEDING
IS SUPPOSED TO WORK,
RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENTS
ARE NEEDED
26. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
DIFFICULTIES ON
STATISTICAL EVALUATION
NEED TO CONVIENCE
SCIENTISTS FINANCIER PEOPLE
Theoretician
•Conceptual model
•Physical hypothesis
Operational
•Procedures
•Equipment
They do not care
about evaluation,
but just for the
(economic)
results.
They care about
rain enhancement
or
hail suppression.
27. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
THE GREEK
NATIONAL
HAIL
SUPPRESSION
PROJECT
ΑΑ22
ΑΑ11
ΑΑ33
•OPERATION. AREAS: A1, A2 A3 (4000 Km2)
•TIME PERIOD
•KIND OF OPERAT.: A1 Research & Ops
:1984-88: 15-Apr. - 30 Sep.
28. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Edessa
Veria
Giannitsa
(1)
(2)
Area: Α1
Crossover North
South
““CROSSOVER DESIGN”CROSSOVER DESIGN”
Randomize the two areas (North and
South) for each experimental unit.
End of experimental unit, 7 daylight
hours after last operation.
31. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
TOTAL HAILFALL OCCURRENCES AT EACH
HAILPAD SITE
IN CENTRAL MACEDONIA, GREECE
32. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
RATIO STATISTICS
1. The results are positive.
2. 18 (out of 21) parameters are statistically accepted at the 5%
level of significance.
3. Their effect is between 35% and 72%.
4. Only 3 (out of 21) parameters are not statistically accepted at
α=0.05. In spite of that, they show positive results.
Single Ratio: seeding at the south part of area A, was more
successful of that at the north part.
The Stone Kinetic Energy (Τ) parameter was considered as
the tentative candidate for the “primary evaluation
parameter”. Hence, the established 70% effect, would be more
valuable and trustworthy, if it would be calculated on time.
33. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
The current project ends on 2008.
From now we are preparing for the new period 2009-2013
34. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Let’s
•the met to direct the pilots
•the pilots to fly in the cells
•the scientists to continue the research
A wish for
the new
project
35. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
A new Hail
protection project
with G.B.G.
in GREECE
38. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Procedures had been followed…
1. ELGA’s Board decision → done
2. Working team to carry out the project → done
3. Specifications ( who is going to do what ) → done
4. International tender → done
5. Start point…… → not yet
39. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
• WMA in the field of weather modification
• Cyprus in the field of Agr. Insurances
• Serbia in the field of Active Protection
• AIAG in the field of Agr. Insurances
• Austria in the field of Airborne Cloud Seeding
• Italy for Civil Protection
• Spain in the field of Cloud Seeding by Ground Means
• Argentina in the field of weather modification
• Bulgaria & Croatia …. it’s coming soon
International Collaboration
Indicative list
43. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
AUSTRIA
Airborne cloud seeding for Hail Suppression
Protected area:
~2500 km2
140 hailpads
2 x 2 km grid
44. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
The Austrian Hail Defense A/C (from the left to the right) :
Cessna 206 OE-DUM- Cessna 210 OE-DSD- Cessna 172 OE-DLS
45. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Cessna 210 OE-DSD
Wingspan: 10,2 m
Engine: Lycoming
6-cylinders 290 HP
2 silver-iodide-
generators
2 flare racks
46. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
One of the two silver-iodide
generators on the Cessna 210.
Above a flare rack
The flares contain pressed black
powder with appr. 7 % volume
of silver iodide
The burning duration of the flares
manufactured by the Austrian
company Pinto 7 min
47. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Bulgaria
The Hail Suppression Project with the rockets
has terminated
48. George N. Farazoulis /
ELGA/GREECE
Although the Bulgarian
hail project has
terminated …..
•They continue to produce AgI
•The Government is thinking to start an airborne
cloud seeding project in collaboration with Greece
•The future is open