2. ROADMAP 2050 – EARLY THOUGHTS (1)
Energy security as key driver. 2009 cuts an element.
Abundant, affordable and acceptable energy as goal.
“No national energy policy can (now) be achieved without a
European perspective”
Creating incentives in regulation via cross border allocation of costs
and allow include costs linked to socio-economic criteria (!)
“Proper infrastructure”. “Set a target date (2015) for ending the
isolation of all Member States from the gas and power networks”
Finalize market integration through regions, “market coupling”.
Market to invest with last resort central funding of projects “where
European interest lies but fail the market test”. “10 YEDP” to play a
role (in European?) projects choice. Not choose projects, but set
“method to choose”. However some corridors like Offshore Wind
and connecting east Europe to West Europe in gas are still set.
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3. ROADMAP 2050 – EARLY THOUGHTS (2)
Where money comes from? “Maximize use of existing funds” or (for
research to combat climate change) “use 50% of ETS revenues”.
Innovation to energy: “few chosen large scale projects”; 4 grand
examples: “1. smart grids. 2.New storage technology, 3. biofuels, 4.
energy saving for cities”.
“No national energy policy can (now) be achieved without a
European perspective”
“Renewables cross with decentral production is a must”.
Push saving energy (target) via public procurement . Now only 10%
of 20% achieved. Eco-design, energy labeling appliances and homes.
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4. ROADMAP 2050 – ROAD IS BUMPY AND UNKNOWN
Key Drivers: Eu, Other Regions, Global.
Global CCS push (? Do not
Climate accords forget Hydrogen as well ?).
Global energy efficiency Infrastructure development
Global renewable push Ff
Nuclear renaissance (Global ) Price of fossils
Public and economic demands change (power need, energy
intensive industry changes; energy security; transport;
competition; financing situation; solidarity; carbon pricing)
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5. FUTURE FUEL MIX OF 2050 – WILL BE A KEY INVESTING ITEM. BUT
ITS SET TO BE “LOW CARBON”. THE ROAD TO FUEL MIX AND
ITSMILE“STONES” WILL BE MORE THE KEY POINT OF DISCUSSION.
Drivers:
Prices fuels
Subsidies
(Expectation of ) energy security
Political decisions
Extremely integrated internal market for
energy
Climate policy
Public demand for renewables and (less)
NIMBY
http://www.roadmap2050.eu/attachments/files/Volume3_FullBook.pdf (Page # 139)
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6. FUTURE FUEL MIX OF 2050 – WILL BE A KEY INVESTING ITEM. BUT
ITS SET TO BE “LOW CARBON”. THE ROAD TO FUEL MIX AND ITS 3-
YEARLY MILE“STONES” WILL BE MORE THE KEY POINT OF
DISCUSSION.
Which “low carbon” road to choose?
• Energy efficiency OR
• More gas OR
• Innovation OR
• FOSSIL with CCS OR
• NUKE OR
• ETS and energy taxes
http://www.roadmap2050.eu/attachments/files/Volume3_FullBook.pdf (Page # 138)
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7. ENERGY EFFICIENCY (WHAT ARE THE KEY IMPLICATIONS)
Non-binding target of 20%
How to achieve?
Buildings = 40% consumption/36% Gr.
http://www.nec.com/global/solutions/nsp/nxtcomm08/exhibits.html
Emissions
Industry = 30 to 60% (for power
http://www.experientia.com/blog/uploads/2007/07/urban.jpg
consumption) energy savings technology
existing
Transport = produces large part of Gr.
Emissions
Sources: EP push (15.12.2010)
http://www.emea-solutions.com/aboutus.htm
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8. ENERGY MARKET INTEGRITY PROPOSALS TARGET INSIDERS
ACER Monitoring to prevent “manipulation”
and “insider trading”.
Regulation foreseen.
20 Platforms and 180 traders in EU affected
according to Commission.
A lot will depend on definitions of when
advance knowledge significantly influences
prices, and what is advance knowledge.
http://rubbercat.net/archive/halloween2005/surprised_man.jpg
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9. FRAMEWORK GUIDELINES POWER AND GAS INFLUENCE, IS
ON THE MOVE TILL MEMBER-STATES UP TO 2014 VOTED ON
CODES, BASED ON THE GUIDELINES.
Important indication comes from the
respective target model discussions,
so-called AHAG in power and Target model
in gas.
http://image.spreadshirt.com/image-server/image/composition/2958155/view/1/producttypecolor/39/type/png/width/378/height/378/im-a-moving-target_design.png
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10. OTHER MULTIPLE REGULATIONS DEVELOPMENTS DESERVE
YOUR ATTENTION AS WELL IN 2011
ETS developments, to influence value of power plants
investments
Smart grid studies, to influence DSOs and developers.
Power
value
Push for renewable de central competition to central
power. Good for back up plants.
Security of supply regulation roll-out will trigger
investments
additional investments in long term, subject to
disputes on cost allocation
value
Gas
Storage regulation might develop based on GGPSSO.
In parallel national governments are anticipating EU policy and
discuss national measures as well. These developments can again
have influence on EU policy in 2011.
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