Wheres the-money-in-local-media

Webinar

Where’s the Money in Local Media?
Before You Plan and Budget,
Track the Shifting Ad Dollars
November 16, 2011

Dial-In Information:
Toll: +1 (914) 339-0033
Access Code: 688-595-848

Introduction & Agenda

• Welcome, and thank you for joining us
• Our discussion points:
– Economic Overview Mark Fratrik
VP, Research
– National Forecast (Traditional vs. Digital)
– Share Shifts: 2010 - 2015
– Competition in Local Markets
– Local Market Estimates Steve Passwaiter
VP, Business
– Budgeting with Media Ad View - Local Ad Development
Reports
– Detailed examination of two markets
– Live Questions, FAQs
Omar Wardak
Senior Researcher

1
Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.

Local Media Five-Year Forecast

$155.0

$150.0 $149.4
US$ Billions

$146.0
$145.0
$141.5
$139.5
$140.0
$137.2
$135.9
$135.0

$130.0

$125.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: BIA/Kelsey’s U.S. Local Media Forecast Nov. 2011.
Note: Numbers are rounded.

2

Quarterly Real GDP Growth

Actuals Forecasts
3.5 3.2 3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.6 2.7
2.5
2.0
Growth Rate

2.0
1.6
1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 2011
2010
Source: Wall St. Journal, Economic Forecasting Survey: Nov. 2010
3

Quarterly Real GDP Growth

Actuals Forecasts
3.5 3.2 3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.6 2.7
2.5
2.0
Growth Rate

2.0
1.6
1.5
2.3 2.5 2.5
1.0

0.5
1.3
0.4
0.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 2011
2010
Source: Wall St. Journal, Economic Forecasting Survey: Nov. 2010, Nov. 2011 4

Unemployment Rate 2010

10.0 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

2010 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 5

Unemployment Rate 2011

10.0 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.4
9.0 8.9 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

2010 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 6

Steady Shift Toward Digital Media

Traditional Online/Digital
2010-2015
$160.0 $149.4
$146.0 CAGRs:
$139.5 $141.5
$137.2 $135.9
$140.0
$20.0 $33.8 $37.9 Total Media
$23.3 $26.4 $29.9
$120.0 CAGR 1.7%
US$ Billions

$100.0 Traditional
Media
$80.0 CAGR -1.0%

$60.0 $117.2 $112.5 $113.1 $111.6 $112.2 $111.5
Online/Digital
$40.0 Media
CAGR 13.6%
$20.0

$0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: BIA/Kelsey’s U.S. Local Media Forecast Nov. 2011.
Note: Numbers are rounded.

7

Local Ad Market Currently Dominated
by Traditional Media

2010 U.S. Local Media Revenues — $137.2 Billion
*ERPM
Online / Interactive 0.8%
7.7% Mobile
0.2%
Magazine
2.4%
Cable Newspapers
4.4% 19.0%

OOH
4.9%

Yellow Pages Direct Mail
7.7% 28.0%

Radio TV
10.5% 14.5% *ERPM = Email, Reputation and
Presence Management

Note: Digital revenues associated with traditional media (e.g., websites associated with
local TV stations, local radio stations, newspapers and magazines) are included in the
revenues for the traditional media. Revenues for Internet Yellow Pages that are associated
with print Yellow Pages are included in the overall Yellow Pages media category.
8

Local Ad Market Less Dominated
by Traditional Media in 2015

2015 U.S. Local Media Revenues — $149.4 Billion

*ERPM Mobile
3.4% 2.3%
Online / Interactive
10.7% Newspapers
12.9%

Magazine
2.0%

Cable Direct Mail
5.0% 27.0%

OOH
6.0%

Yellow Pages
TV *ERPM = Email, Reputation and
5.0% Radio 14.0% Presence Management
11.8%

Note: Digital revenues associated with traditional media (e.g., websites associated with local
TV stations, local radio stations, newspapers and magazines) are included in the revenues
for the traditional media. Revenues for Internet Yellow Pages that are associated with print
Yellow Pages are included in the overall Yellow Pages media category.
9

Competitive Local Media Markets

• Information these days is critical. Why?
– More in-market competition
– Digital ad share shifts
– Consumer preferences
– Emerging new growth categories

10

Analyzing the Local Ad Market

• Clients have told us – they need detailed local market
information so they can see exactly what is happening in their
market

• In response, we have developed Media Ad View:
– Provides a detailed picture of advertising trends for every local market
– Covers advertising spending by media for the most recent year and for
five years out (2010-2015)
– Drills down into 93 detailed categories (e.g., tire dealers, women’s
clothing stores, physicians) for different types of businesses
– Delivers the details necessary to understand and evolve with the rapid
share shift environment that continues to transform the media industry

11

Ad Spend by Media Category

Media General Advertising
Categories Categories
• Mobile • Automobile
• ERPM (E-mail, Reputation and • Education
Presence Management)
• Financial/Insurance
• Online Advertising
• Radio
• General Services
• Newspaper • Government/Religion
• Television • Health Care
• Cable TV • Leisure/Recreation
• Internet Yellow Pages • Media
• Print Yellow Pages • Real Estate
• Magazines
• Restaurants
• Out-Of-Home
• Retail
• Direct Mail
• Technology

12

93 Detailed Categories
Automobile Dealers & Automotive Mnftrs. Landscaping Services
Home Furnishings Stores
Other Motor Vehicle Dealers Offices of Physicians
Floor Covering Stores
Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores Offices of Dentists
Other Home Furnishings Stores
Tire Dealers Offices of Chiropractors
Household Appliance Stores
Gasoline Stations & Automotive Repair Offices of Optometrists
Radio, Television, and Other Electronics
Business Schools and Computer Hospitals
Computer and Software Stores
Technical and Trade Schools Nursing and Residential Care
Home Centers
Other Schools and Instruction Veterinary Services
Paint and Wallpaper Stores
Educational Support Services Pharmacies and Drug Stores
Hardware Stores
Commercial banking Hotels-Motels
Lawn and Garden Equipment Stores
Savings institutions Airline Transportation
Men's Clothing Stores
Credit unions, federally chartered RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks
Women's Clothing Stores
Securities brokerage Performing Arts Companies
Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores
Portfolio management Spectator Sports
Family Clothing Stores
Investment advice Museums, Historical Sites Amusement
Clothing Accessories Stores
Direct life insurance carriers Parks and Arcades
Other Clothing Stores
Direct health and medical insurance Gambling Industries
Shoe Stores
Auto Insurance Other Amusement and Recreation
Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Stores
Direct property and casualty insurance Motion Picture and Video
Sporting Goods Stores
Insurance agencies and brokerages Newspaper Publishers
Hobby, Toy, and Game Stores
Legal Services Periodical Publishers
Book Stores
Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping Radio Stations
Department Stores
Architectural, Engineering Services Television Broadcasting
Discount Department Stores
Specialized Design Services Cable and Other Subscription
Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters
Computer Systems Design and Related Programming
All Other General Merchandise Stores
Management, Scientific, and Technical Full-Service Restaurants
Office Supplies and Stationery Stores
Scientific Research and Development QSR/Fast Foods
Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores
Advertising, Public Relations Services Special Food Services
Wired Telecommunications Carriers
Other Professional, Scientific Technical Bars
Wireless Telecommunications Carriers
Temporary Help Services Supermarkets and Other Grocery
Other Telecommunications
Janitorial Services Convenience Stores
Beer and Wine, and Liquor Stores
Furniture Stores
13

Charlotte, NC Total Media Overview

14

Charlotte, NC Automotive Category

15

Charlotte, NC Retail Category

16

Charlotte, NC Retail Category

Furniture Stores
Children's and Infants' Clothing
Office Supplies
Home Furnishings Stores
Family Clothing Stores
Gift/Souvenir
Floor Covering Stores
Clothing Accessories Stores
Other Home Furnishings
Other Clothing Stores
Household Appliance Stores
Shoe Stores
Radio/Television/ Electronics
Jewelry,/Luggage/Leather
Computer /Software Stores
Sporting Goods Stores
Home Centers
Hobby, Toy, and Game Stores
Paint and Wallpaper Stores
Book Stores
Hardware Stores
Department Stores (except Discount
Department)
Lawn/Garden/Supplies Stores
Discount Department Stores
Men's Clothing Stores
Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters
Women's Clothing Stores
All Other General Merchandise Stores

17

Interactive Report Building

• Media Ad View: Detailed Category Reports include an
Interactive Excel™ file in which a subcategory can be
selected to generate a series of pie charts and tables that
examine that category in a local market.

• Data charts include:
– Ad spending share by media for the current year and for each
year five years out.
– Estimated Annual Advertising Revenues
– Share of Total Annual Advertising Revenues by Media
– Annual Growth in Advertising Revenues by Media

• Let’s look at some of the data.

18

19

Detailed Category: Health – Physicians
2010

20

Detailed Category: Health – Physicians
2015

21

Detailed Category: Auto Dealers & Mnftrs
2010

22

Detailed Category: Auto Dealers & Mnftrs
2015

23

How Clients Use MAV Reports

• What our clients have told us:
– Identify ALL the competition in the market – not just
the ones in your specific media
– Zero in on the revenue drivers in your particular market
• Track where there’s major spending in a category right now
• Track where local ad dollars are shifting
• Plan and budget for these changes

– Prepare effective media plans for different Ad prospects
• Determine platform strategies based on future growth and metrics for
different ad categories
• Determine the potential budgets of prospects to prepare a “winnable” sales
strategy

– Create professional, effective sales collateral
– Train sales teams as multi-platform Ad consultants

24

Brief Recap of Methodology

• BIA/Kelsey has been tracking media for over 27 years
• We have a “bottom up” and “top down” approach
– Significant feedback from major players in all of these local
media industries
– Local demographic and economic data to allocate across
markets
• Utilize national and local information revenue and
economic/demographic to estimate across general and
detailed categories
• Clients have told us that our estimates are the most reliable in
the business. We take great pride in maintaining this position.

25

Special Purchase Offer

• Current List price:
– $2,495/market

• Webinar promo:
– $1,995/market.
– Want multiple markets? Bundle offer available.
– Must be purchased by Nov. 30, 2011
– Visit: www.biakelsey.com/MAV for report details.
– To purchase, email: sales@biakelsey.com or call: (703) 818-2425

26

Frequently Asked Questions

27

How are the various media estimates generated
especially in the smallest markets?

Answer:
• Both bottom up and top down approaches - depending upon the
specific media

• Local economic and demographic data are taken into account
when allocating the national estimates for specific markets

• Projections on the growth of population, retail sales, and
aggregate disposable income

• Other local factors (e.g., relative health of local economy, other
events affecting local economy, etc.)

28

What does the Total Local Television Market
Revenue Estimate include?

Answer:
• All over-the-air advertising revenues generated from both national and
local advertisers including political advertising revenues

• All online revenues generated by local television stations

• Does not include:

• Any network advertising

• Retransmission consent revenues

• Trade and barter

• Production revenues

29

Can we get more details on the online advertising
components (e.g., how much is search, display)?

Answer:
• Media Ad View is a product that we are constantly updating and
refining.
• Currently, we are in the process of developing those estimates
based upon local information obtainable on search activity within
each and every market.
• Considerable amount of data is being collected to generate
those market specific estimates.
• If you purchase a report now, this update will be provided to you
as soon as it is available.

30

Special Purchase Offer

• Current List price:
– $2,495/market

• Webinar promo:
– $1,995/market.
– Want multiple markets? Bundle offer available.
– Must be purchased by Nov. 30, 2011
– Visit: www.biakelsey.com/MAV for report details.
– To purchase, email: sales@biakelsey.com or call: (703) 818-2425

31

Questions and comments:
Mark Fratrik | mfratrik@biakelsey.com | 703.818.2425
Steve Passwaiter | spasswaiter@biakelsey.com | 703.818.2425
Omar Wardak | owardak@biaklesy.com | 703.818.2425

Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.

This published material is for internal client use only. It may not be duplicated or distributed in any manner not permitted by contract. Any
unauthorized distribution could result in termination of the client relationship, fines and other civil or criminal penalties under federal law.
BIA/Kelsey disclaims all warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein and similarly disclaims any liability for direct, indirect or
consequential damages that may result from the use or interpretation of this information.

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