Planning for Climate Change in the Technical Analysis of Floodplain Mapping and Flood Control Projects Presented June 9, 2009 Association of State Floodplain Managers Conference Concurrent Session B-3 Climate Change in Floodplain Management Decisions Authors: Michael DePue, PE, CFM (PBS&J) David T. Williams, PhD., PH., D.WRE, PE, CFM (PBS&J) Kris Esterson (PBS&J) For Copy of Presentation Contact Michael DePue, PE, CFM Vice President, PBS&J 10 East Doty Street, Suite 800 Madison, WI, USA 53703 Main: 1-608-204-5950 [email_address]

Selected Climate Change Reports

Worldwide Projected Precipitation Changes From: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. More Precip Less Precip

Worldwide Projected Changes in Runoff From: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. More Runoff Less Runoff

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective 2009 From: Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P., Webb, R.S., and White, K.D., 2009, Climate change and water resources management—A federal perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331, 65 p. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/) Temperature Trends Sea Level Trends

U.S. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise 2009 From: “U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.” Lead Agency: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Other Key Participating Agencies: U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Contributing Agencies: Department of Transportation. January 15, 2009

Climate Change in the United States. April 27, 2009 www.climatescience.gov From: Third Public Review Draft of the Unified Synthesis Product Global Climate Change in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce. April 27, 2009.

A longer growing season http://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm Shifting Hardiness Zones Increase in mean global temperature of 1.8°C is likely to shorten growing season in Tropics, lengthen growing season in higher latitudes . Mid-latitude impacts are mixed. (USDA, 2001) http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aib765/aib765-8.pdf From: Roy Darwin. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Climate Change and Food Security. Agriculture Information Bulletin Number 765-8 June 2001

Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought (USGS, Abrupt Climate Change, 2008) Water infrastructure will have to be redesigned. Water use will have to adjust to limited water availability. From: CCSP, 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.

General Trends Commonly Found in CC Reports

Adapting our Technical Analyses to Climate Change

Selected key trends for modeling impact analysis

Conceptual Model of Effects to Technical Analyses Credit: FEMA News Photo, Marvin Nauman Credit: NOAA News Photo Credit: California Department of Water Resources Credit: PBS&J Credit: PBS&J Credit: PBS&J

Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities

A longer growing season

Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities

Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought

More intense precipitation events

Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain

Sea level has risen 2 to 5 inches during the past 50 years along many U.S. coasts

Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas

Earlier spring snowmelt and earlier peak river flows

QUESTIONS?