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The Massachusetts Model of
 Health Reform in Practice
 And the Future of National Health Reform



http://masscare.org/massachusetts-health-reform-in-practice/
Massachusetts Health Reform (“Chapter 58”)
                                        April 12, 2006




Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act               Presidential Elections
             March 23, 2010                                November, 2012
Origins of Mass. Health Reform
• 2006 expiration of Massachusetts Medicaid
  Waiver (Section 1115).
• Bush Administration opposition to state’s ‘Free
  Care Pool’ payments: culture of insurance.
• Two binding ballot initiatives for ’06 election.

         The ‘Free Care Pool’
• Hospital & health center reimbursement for care of
  uninsured, 0 to 200% of poverty line.
• 452,000 users in FY2006 (659K uninsured).
• $710 million in FY2006 (Medicaid: $10 bill).
• Covers all services available at hospitals, health
  centers, no cost-sharing, not considered insurance.
Structure of Mass. Health Reform
• Commonwealth Care: free subsidized insurance from 0
  to 150% of poverty; sliding subsidies from 150% to
  300% of poverty.
• Commonwealth Choice: ‘exchange’ for individual and
  eventually small business market (40K users currently).
• Individual Mandate: adults above 150% of poverty
  must demonstrate insurance coverage or pay a fine
  ($200 to $1,200) on tax forms.
• Employer Play-or-Pay: with 11+ employees, must
  cover 1/4th of employees and offer to cover 1/3rd of
  premium costs, or pay $295/per worker per year fine.
• No New Revenue: financed from existing free care
  pool funds, federal matching funds, private payments,
  and limited cash from state’s General Fund.
• No Cost Control: limited to access for political reasons.
Impact on the Uninsured
12%   11.3%

                        10.4%

10%
               10.3%
                                              Health
      9.3%                                    Reform
               9.2%     8.5%
8%                                                                        Census/ACS

       7.4%
                                   6.2%                                   Census/CPS
                                                                  5.6%
6%                      6.4%
                                              5.5%
                                                       5.3%               State/CSR
                                5.7%
                                       5.4%     4.4%     4.4%      4.4%
                                                                          State/Urban Inst
4%
                                                       4.2%       4.3%
                                               4.1%
                                                                          CDC/BRFSS**

2%                                            2.6%     2.7%
                                                                1.9%


0%
        2004     2005    2006      2007         2008     2009     2010
Notes on the Uninsured
• Most commonly cited estimates are
  impossibly low: state survey finds less than
  144,000 uninsured in fall 2008, but 150,000
  report they are uninsured for whole year on
  tax returns.
• Most reliable surveys show uninsured
  population cut in half, around 4-5% of pop.
• State reports that 4/5ths of the newly insured
  received public subsidies – majority of these
  were eligible for free care prior to reform.
Impact on the Employer-
              Sponsored Coverage
80%
                                                                                     77%
                                                                        76%

75%
                                                      72%
                                     70%
      69%
70%                68%



65%67%

                   63%                                63%
60%
                                                                        60%

55%                                  57%

                                                                                     54%
50%
   2001     2002     2003     2004     2005    2006     2007     2008         2009   2010
                         % of Employers Offering Workplace Coverage
                         % of Employees Buying Workplace Coverage
Impact on Employer Coverage of
     Low-Income Residents
70.0%

                                                                  59.4%
60.0%                                               55.6%
                                       54.2%

50.0%   46.1%
                       42.4%

40.0%


30.0%                  26.2%                                      25.3%
        21.8%                                       20.9%
20.0%                                  17.2%


10.0%


 0.0%
        2005           2006            2007          2008         2009
                Employer-Sponsored Insurance   Public Insurance
Access to Regular Source
             of Care Improved
        Massachusetts Residents, Ages 18-64, Reporting a Regular Source of
        Care, Three Sources of Data
94.0%

                                                         92.1%
92.0%                                                                               91.0%


                                                                    89.9%
90.0%                                             89.0%
                                                                                    90.0%
                                                                 88.0%
88.0%
                         87.0%                                      88.3%
                                        87.8%            87.7%

86.0%
                         86.3%
             85.4%
84.0%


82.0%
             2005        2006           2007             2008       2009             2010

                 BRFSS           Blue Cross/Urban Inst           State/Urban Inst
Cost Barriers to Care Declined
        Massachusetts Residents, Ages 18-64, Didn’t Receive Needed Care
        Due to Costs, Three Sources of Data
35.0%

                                                                                      29.0%
30.0%
                                                                       27.0%
                                                           26.0%
25.0%

20.0%
                           16.3%

15.0%
                                                           11.6%       11.7%

10.0%
            9.9%
                           8.6%
                                           7.8%                         7.9%          7.6%
 5.0%                                                      6.9%


 0.0%
            2005           2006           2007             2008        2009           2010
                   BRFSS           Blue Cross/Urban Inst           State/Urban Inst
From Safety Net Care to Publicly-
    Subsidized Private Insurance
           Co-Payments by
           Safety Net Plan
                               Free Care Pool       Commonwealth Care (2011)
Income Eligibility
                                  0-200%        0-100%     100-200%    200-300%
                                  poverty       poverty     poverty     poverty
Annual Premium
                                                                        $924 -
(for lowest cost plans)
                                    $0            $0       $0 - $468    $1,392
Primary Care Visit                  $0            $0         $10         $15
Specialist Visit                    $0            $0         $18         $22
Inpatient Care                      $0            $0         $50         $250
Outpatient Surgery                  $0            $0         $50         $125
Emergency Room Visit                $0            $0         $50         $100
Generic Drugs                       $1-3         $1-3        $10        $12.50
Preferred Brand Drugs               $3            $3         $20         $25
Non-Preferred Brand Drugs           $3            $3         $40         $50
Maximum Prescription Co-Pays       $200          $200        $500        $800
Maximum Other Co-Pays               $0            $0         $750       $1,500
Patient Story on
         Mixed Access Impact
“Under Free Care I saw doctors at Mass General and
Brigham and Women’s hospital. I had no co-
payments for medications, appointments, lab tests or
hospitalization; the care I received gave me a light at
the end of the health care nightmare tunnel...Under
my Commonwealth Care plan my routine monthly
medical costs included the $110 premium, $200 for
medications, a $10 appointment with my primary
care doctor, and $20 for a specialist appointment.
That’s $340 per month, provided I stayed well.”

                      Kathryn, Boston MA (2008)
Primary Care Wait Times Rise
                With Increased Demand
            Average Wait Time for New Patient Appointment
       55                                                          53
                                  52
                                              50
       50
             47


       45                                                                  48


                                                          44
Days




       40


       35


       30             33



       25
              2005         2006    2007         2008       2009     2010        2011

                                  Internal Medicine    Trendline
Decline in Primary Care Practices
       Accepting New Patients
      Percentage of Practices Accepting New Patients
70%
      66%
                 64%
65%


60%                                     58%



55%
                                                                 51%

                                                                               49%
50%
                           51%


45%

                                                       44%
40%
        2005       2006       2007            2008       2009          2010   2011
                             Internal Medicine       Trendline
Underinsurance Rises:
        Primarily at Small Employers
Private Insurance Plans with         Share of Medical Costs Covered by Small
High-Deductibles ($1,000+)           Business Employees’ Insurance, 2007-2009
12.0%                         100%                                                 8%
                      11.3%
                               90%
                                     34%                                           15%
10.0%                          80%
                               70%
                                                                                   28%
                               60%
 8.0%
                               50%
               6.1%                  46%
                               40%
 6.0%
                               30%
                                                                                   50%
                               20%
 4.0%   3.4%                         16%
                               10%
                               0%     5%
 2.0%


 0.0%
        2006   2007   2008           ≤ 70%   70.1% - 80%   80.1% - 90%   90.1% - 100%
Out-of-Pocket Barriers Decline
       Change in % of Families with High Out-of-Pocket Spending
25%
          21.8%


20%                                                      18.4%                 18.0%



15%



10%

           9.4%
5%                                                    7.3%                   6.7%



0%
             2006                   2007                 2008                  2009
      Out-of-pocket costs 5% of income or more   Out-of-pocket costs 10% of income or more
Impact on Total Household
        Spending on Health Care
      Change in Percentage of Families with High Total Health Spending
25%


                              20.2%
20%



15%             14.2%



10%


                                                                               5.2%
5%                                                               3.6%


0%
         Spent 10%+ of income on health care             Spent 25%+ of income on health care
                                           2000   2009
Impact on Medical Debt and
          Medical Bankruptcies
70%

                                                                         59.3%
60%
                                                                                      52.9%
50%


40%


30%

           19.1%        19.1%              19.5%        20.3%
20%


10%


0%
      Problems paying medical bills   Paying medical bills over time   Bankruptcies related to
                                                                        illness/medical bills*
                                         2006/07       2009
Emergency
                  Department Use
      Trends in Emergency Department Use (Indexed to 2004)
115
                                                                     113
113                                                   111

111

109
                                       107
107                                                                  109

105                                                   107
                     102
103
       100                              104
101

 99                  101

 97

 95
        2004          2005               2006           2007          2008

                 Preventable/Avoidable ED visits   Total ED visits
Financial Crisis for Safety Net
• Contrary to expectations, patient volume at safety net
  providers has gone up since health reform:
   – 31% growth in patients receiving care at community health
     centers
   – Ambulatory visits to safety net hospital clinics grew at 2X the
     rate of visits to non-safety net hospital clinics
• Reimbursement rates at safety net hospitals are down.
  Promised Medicaid rate increases reversed through budget
  cuts and health safety net funds falling short, creating a
  serious financial crisis.
   – Unsuccessful lawsuit by Boston Medical Center and six
     community hospitals for Medicaid underpayments in 2009.
   – “Soft landing” funds for two largest safety net hospitals run out
     in 2010.
   – Cambridge Health Alliance forced to close six clinics and shut
     down all inpatient services at one of its hospitals, seeking a
     buyer or a merger.
Rise in Premiums Has Accelerated,
Growth in Provider Administration
 • Employer premium growth accelerated in Massachusetts
   after health reform compared to other states:
    – For single coverage: premium growth was 5.9% higher in three
      years after reform for all employers, 6.8% higher for small
      employers
    – For family coverage: average annual premium growth was
      premium growth was 1.5% higher in three years after reform for
      all employers, 14.4% higher for small employers
 • Small employer premiums due in part to merger of
   individual and small group markets in Mass.
 • Job growth in Mass. health care industry almost double
   that of nation after reform, slower than nation prior to
   reform. Almost all of difference accounted for by growth in
   administrative occupations in Massachusetts, which grew
   by 18.4% over three years (compared to 8.0% nationally).
Concept of “Shared
           Responsibility”
“Massachusetts mandated shared
 responsibility… The costs of expanding
 coverage to all are considerable… the only
 way to ensure the sustainability of that
 expense over the long term is through
 universal responsibility, spreading the cost
 broadly among all sectors of society:
 individuals, government, and employers.”
                                  Bruce Bodaken
    President and CEO, Blue Shield of California
Measuring Shared Responsibility
  Change in Health Care Spending by Payer, Before and After Reform, 2005-2007
30%                                                                 28%
                                                25%
25%          21%               22%
20%
15%
10%
 5%
 0%
      Employers and Union   Individuals   State Government   Federal Government
            Plans
Measuring Shared Responsibility
             Change in Health Care Spending by Payer, Before and After Reform, 2005-2007
   30%                                                                                                             28%
                                                                                          25%
   25%                                21%                       22%
   20%
   15%
   10%
    5%
    0%
                               Employers and Union          Individuals          State Government           Federal Government
                                     Plans

                Increase in Health Care Spending After Reform as a Percentage of Family
                Income, by Income Quintiles, 2005-2007
                              5%                            4.6%
as Percentage of Household
Incearse in Health Spending




                              4%
                              3%
                              2%
                                                                              1.7%                  1.4%
                                                                                                                         0.4%
           Income




                              1%
                              0%
                              -1%
                              -2%       -1.5%
                                     Bottom 20%          Second 20%        Middle 20%             Fourth 20%        Top 20%
                                      ($0 - $20k)       ($20k - $41k)     ($41k - $66k)         ($66k - $111k)      ($111k+)

                                                     Income Quintiles: Bottom to Top 20% of Income Earners
Mass. Health Reform Has Had
    Positive Impacts, But Is
         Unsustainable
“If we have double-digit increases (annually in
   costs), health reform is not sustainable.”
                                        Jon Kingsdale
      Executive Director, Commonwealth Connector

“If we do not constrain healthcare costs, the
   system we worked so hard to create and
   implement will collapse..”
                                   Therese Murray
        Senate President, Massachusetts Legislature
20%
                                                                                                                                                           40%
                                                                                                                                                                      60%




                                                                                                                                               0%
                                      CommCare Enrollment




                                           100000
                                           120000
                                           140000
                                           160000
                                           180000
                                           200000




                                                0
                                            20000
                                            60000
                                            80000
                                                                                                                                                0%
                                                                                                                                      Q2 '07
                               Nov '06




                                                   5%



                                            40000 3,654
                               Dec '06




                                                                                                                                                    8%
                                                                                                                                      Q3 '07
                                Jan '07
                               Feb '07
                               Mar '07                                                                                                Q4 '07

                                                                                                                                                          25%
                               Apr '07
                               May '07
                               Jun '07                                                                                                Q1 '08             20%
                                 Jul '07
                               Aug '07
                               Sep '07                                                                                                Q2 '08
                                                                                                                                                          23%



                                Oct '07
                               Nov '07
                               Dec '07                                                                                                Q3 '08
                                                                                                                                                           28%




                                Jan '08




                                                  5%
                               Feb '08




                                                                 177,136
                               Mar '08                                                                                                Q4 '08
                                                                                                                                                           29%




                               Apr '08
                               May '08
                                                                                                                                      Q1 '09
                                                                                                                                                               33%




                                Jun '08
                                 Jul '08
                               Aug '08
                                                                                                                                      Q2 '09
                                                                                                                                                               32%




                               Sep '08
                                Oct '08




Commonwealth Care Enrollment
                               Nov '08
                                                                                                                                      Q3 '09
                                                                                                                                                               31%




                               Dec '08
                                Jan '09
                               Feb '09
                                                                                                                                      Q4 '09
                                                                                                                                                               31%




                               Mar '09
                               Apr '09
                               May '09
                                                                                                                                      Q1 '10
                                                                                                                                                                     43%




                                Jun '09
                                 Jul '09
                               Aug '09
                                                                 178,686




                                                                                                                                      Q2 '10
                                                                                                                                                                 42%
                                                                                                                                                                             Share of Commonwealth Care Enrollees Paying Premiums




                               Sep '09
                                Oct '09
% Unemployed

                               Nov '09                                                                                                Q3 '10
                                                                                                                                                                     42%




                               Dec '09
                                Jan '10
                               Feb '10
                                                                           Commonwealth Care Enrollment and Mass. Unemployment Rate


                                                       152,571




                                                                                                                                      Q4 '10
                                                                 9%
                                                                                                                                                                 42%




                               Mar '10
                                           0%
                                           1%
                                           2%
                                           3%
                                           4%
                                           5%
                                           6%
                                           7%
                                           8%
                                           9%
                                           10%




                                                                                                                                      Q1 '11
                                                                                                                                                                       50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Back Coverage to Control Costs




                                            Massachusetts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    State Has Been Gradually Rolling




                                                                                                                                      Q2 '11
                                                                                                                                                                      49%




                                            Unemployment
Individual Mandate Also
Unsustainable, Mass. Has Raised
   Affordability Thresholds
    Percent of Income Deemed Affordable for Health Premiums
    (Families of Three, 2007-2011)
12.0%
                                                                                 11.0%

10.0%                                                              9.5%

                                                     8.0%
 8.0%                                         7.5%
                                                                          7.0%
                                  5.9% 6.0%
 6.0%                                                       5.6%
                      4.9% 5.0%
                                                                                         2007
                                                                                         2011
 4.0%   3.3%   3.4%


 2.0%

 0.0%
         151% of      201% of      251% of    301% of       401% of        500% of
         Poverty      Poverty      Poverty    Poverty       Poverty        Poverty
Takeaway Points for National
       Health Reform (PPACA)
1.   Mass. reform affected the insurance status of about 4-5% of the
     population (half the previously uninsured), and improved access for
     about half of those. The impact in other states will vary depending on
     their existing safety net programs, but focus on access outcomes – not
     insurance coverage!
2.   National reform is unlikely to have a significant impact on outcomes that
     predominantly afflict the insured population, including emergency
     department visits, medical debt, and health-related bankruptcy.
3.   While safety net providers handle most of the increased demand for care
     that results from reform, Massachusetts and national reform rely on cuts
     to public health care programs that can threaten the viability of those
     providers. This increased demand will also increase strain on primary
     care provider networks.
4.   Most of the population will be relatively unaffected by health reform,
     but will continue to experience the health care crisis of unaffordable
     premiums and high barriers to care. (They also vote!)
5.   This model of reform defers serious action on cost control. Without
     addressing the systemic causes of our high costs – which has thus far
     proven politically impossible – access gains will face retrenchment, or
     will force us to sacrifice spending on other basic social goods.

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Presentation: Health Reform in Massachusetts

  • 1. The Massachusetts Model of Health Reform in Practice And the Future of National Health Reform http://masscare.org/massachusetts-health-reform-in-practice/
  • 2. Massachusetts Health Reform (“Chapter 58”) April 12, 2006 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Presidential Elections March 23, 2010 November, 2012
  • 3. Origins of Mass. Health Reform • 2006 expiration of Massachusetts Medicaid Waiver (Section 1115). • Bush Administration opposition to state’s ‘Free Care Pool’ payments: culture of insurance. • Two binding ballot initiatives for ’06 election. The ‘Free Care Pool’ • Hospital & health center reimbursement for care of uninsured, 0 to 200% of poverty line. • 452,000 users in FY2006 (659K uninsured). • $710 million in FY2006 (Medicaid: $10 bill). • Covers all services available at hospitals, health centers, no cost-sharing, not considered insurance.
  • 4. Structure of Mass. Health Reform • Commonwealth Care: free subsidized insurance from 0 to 150% of poverty; sliding subsidies from 150% to 300% of poverty. • Commonwealth Choice: ‘exchange’ for individual and eventually small business market (40K users currently). • Individual Mandate: adults above 150% of poverty must demonstrate insurance coverage or pay a fine ($200 to $1,200) on tax forms. • Employer Play-or-Pay: with 11+ employees, must cover 1/4th of employees and offer to cover 1/3rd of premium costs, or pay $295/per worker per year fine. • No New Revenue: financed from existing free care pool funds, federal matching funds, private payments, and limited cash from state’s General Fund. • No Cost Control: limited to access for political reasons.
  • 5. Impact on the Uninsured 12% 11.3% 10.4% 10% 10.3% Health 9.3% Reform 9.2% 8.5% 8% Census/ACS 7.4% 6.2% Census/CPS 5.6% 6% 6.4% 5.5% 5.3% State/CSR 5.7% 5.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% State/Urban Inst 4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% CDC/BRFSS** 2% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • 6. Notes on the Uninsured • Most commonly cited estimates are impossibly low: state survey finds less than 144,000 uninsured in fall 2008, but 150,000 report they are uninsured for whole year on tax returns. • Most reliable surveys show uninsured population cut in half, around 4-5% of pop. • State reports that 4/5ths of the newly insured received public subsidies – majority of these were eligible for free care prior to reform.
  • 7. Impact on the Employer- Sponsored Coverage 80% 77% 76% 75% 72% 70% 69% 70% 68% 65%67% 63% 63% 60% 60% 55% 57% 54% 50% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % of Employers Offering Workplace Coverage % of Employees Buying Workplace Coverage
  • 8. Impact on Employer Coverage of Low-Income Residents 70.0% 59.4% 60.0% 55.6% 54.2% 50.0% 46.1% 42.4% 40.0% 30.0% 26.2% 25.3% 21.8% 20.9% 20.0% 17.2% 10.0% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Employer-Sponsored Insurance Public Insurance
  • 9. Access to Regular Source of Care Improved Massachusetts Residents, Ages 18-64, Reporting a Regular Source of Care, Three Sources of Data 94.0% 92.1% 92.0% 91.0% 89.9% 90.0% 89.0% 90.0% 88.0% 88.0% 87.0% 88.3% 87.8% 87.7% 86.0% 86.3% 85.4% 84.0% 82.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BRFSS Blue Cross/Urban Inst State/Urban Inst
  • 10. Cost Barriers to Care Declined Massachusetts Residents, Ages 18-64, Didn’t Receive Needed Care Due to Costs, Three Sources of Data 35.0% 29.0% 30.0% 27.0% 26.0% 25.0% 20.0% 16.3% 15.0% 11.6% 11.7% 10.0% 9.9% 8.6% 7.8% 7.9% 7.6% 5.0% 6.9% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BRFSS Blue Cross/Urban Inst State/Urban Inst
  • 11. From Safety Net Care to Publicly- Subsidized Private Insurance Co-Payments by Safety Net Plan Free Care Pool Commonwealth Care (2011) Income Eligibility 0-200% 0-100% 100-200% 200-300% poverty poverty poverty poverty Annual Premium $924 - (for lowest cost plans) $0 $0 $0 - $468 $1,392 Primary Care Visit $0 $0 $10 $15 Specialist Visit $0 $0 $18 $22 Inpatient Care $0 $0 $50 $250 Outpatient Surgery $0 $0 $50 $125 Emergency Room Visit $0 $0 $50 $100 Generic Drugs $1-3 $1-3 $10 $12.50 Preferred Brand Drugs $3 $3 $20 $25 Non-Preferred Brand Drugs $3 $3 $40 $50 Maximum Prescription Co-Pays $200 $200 $500 $800 Maximum Other Co-Pays $0 $0 $750 $1,500
  • 12. Patient Story on Mixed Access Impact “Under Free Care I saw doctors at Mass General and Brigham and Women’s hospital. I had no co- payments for medications, appointments, lab tests or hospitalization; the care I received gave me a light at the end of the health care nightmare tunnel...Under my Commonwealth Care plan my routine monthly medical costs included the $110 premium, $200 for medications, a $10 appointment with my primary care doctor, and $20 for a specialist appointment. That’s $340 per month, provided I stayed well.” Kathryn, Boston MA (2008)
  • 13. Primary Care Wait Times Rise With Increased Demand Average Wait Time for New Patient Appointment 55 53 52 50 50 47 45 48 44 Days 40 35 30 33 25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Internal Medicine Trendline
  • 14. Decline in Primary Care Practices Accepting New Patients Percentage of Practices Accepting New Patients 70% 66% 64% 65% 60% 58% 55% 51% 49% 50% 51% 45% 44% 40% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Internal Medicine Trendline
  • 15. Underinsurance Rises: Primarily at Small Employers Private Insurance Plans with Share of Medical Costs Covered by Small High-Deductibles ($1,000+) Business Employees’ Insurance, 2007-2009 12.0% 100% 8% 11.3% 90% 34% 15% 10.0% 80% 70% 28% 60% 8.0% 50% 6.1% 46% 40% 6.0% 30% 50% 20% 4.0% 3.4% 16% 10% 0% 5% 2.0% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 ≤ 70% 70.1% - 80% 80.1% - 90% 90.1% - 100%
  • 16. Out-of-Pocket Barriers Decline Change in % of Families with High Out-of-Pocket Spending 25% 21.8% 20% 18.4% 18.0% 15% 10% 9.4% 5% 7.3% 6.7% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 Out-of-pocket costs 5% of income or more Out-of-pocket costs 10% of income or more
  • 17. Impact on Total Household Spending on Health Care Change in Percentage of Families with High Total Health Spending 25% 20.2% 20% 15% 14.2% 10% 5.2% 5% 3.6% 0% Spent 10%+ of income on health care Spent 25%+ of income on health care 2000 2009
  • 18. Impact on Medical Debt and Medical Bankruptcies 70% 59.3% 60% 52.9% 50% 40% 30% 19.1% 19.1% 19.5% 20.3% 20% 10% 0% Problems paying medical bills Paying medical bills over time Bankruptcies related to illness/medical bills* 2006/07 2009
  • 19. Emergency Department Use Trends in Emergency Department Use (Indexed to 2004) 115 113 113 111 111 109 107 107 109 105 107 102 103 100 104 101 99 101 97 95 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Preventable/Avoidable ED visits Total ED visits
  • 20. Financial Crisis for Safety Net • Contrary to expectations, patient volume at safety net providers has gone up since health reform: – 31% growth in patients receiving care at community health centers – Ambulatory visits to safety net hospital clinics grew at 2X the rate of visits to non-safety net hospital clinics • Reimbursement rates at safety net hospitals are down. Promised Medicaid rate increases reversed through budget cuts and health safety net funds falling short, creating a serious financial crisis. – Unsuccessful lawsuit by Boston Medical Center and six community hospitals for Medicaid underpayments in 2009. – “Soft landing” funds for two largest safety net hospitals run out in 2010. – Cambridge Health Alliance forced to close six clinics and shut down all inpatient services at one of its hospitals, seeking a buyer or a merger.
  • 21. Rise in Premiums Has Accelerated, Growth in Provider Administration • Employer premium growth accelerated in Massachusetts after health reform compared to other states: – For single coverage: premium growth was 5.9% higher in three years after reform for all employers, 6.8% higher for small employers – For family coverage: average annual premium growth was premium growth was 1.5% higher in three years after reform for all employers, 14.4% higher for small employers • Small employer premiums due in part to merger of individual and small group markets in Mass. • Job growth in Mass. health care industry almost double that of nation after reform, slower than nation prior to reform. Almost all of difference accounted for by growth in administrative occupations in Massachusetts, which grew by 18.4% over three years (compared to 8.0% nationally).
  • 22. Concept of “Shared Responsibility” “Massachusetts mandated shared responsibility… The costs of expanding coverage to all are considerable… the only way to ensure the sustainability of that expense over the long term is through universal responsibility, spreading the cost broadly among all sectors of society: individuals, government, and employers.” Bruce Bodaken President and CEO, Blue Shield of California
  • 23. Measuring Shared Responsibility Change in Health Care Spending by Payer, Before and After Reform, 2005-2007 30% 28% 25% 25% 21% 22% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Employers and Union Individuals State Government Federal Government Plans
  • 24. Measuring Shared Responsibility Change in Health Care Spending by Payer, Before and After Reform, 2005-2007 30% 28% 25% 25% 21% 22% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Employers and Union Individuals State Government Federal Government Plans Increase in Health Care Spending After Reform as a Percentage of Family Income, by Income Quintiles, 2005-2007 5% 4.6% as Percentage of Household Incearse in Health Spending 4% 3% 2% 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% Income 1% 0% -1% -2% -1.5% Bottom 20% Second 20% Middle 20% Fourth 20% Top 20% ($0 - $20k) ($20k - $41k) ($41k - $66k) ($66k - $111k) ($111k+) Income Quintiles: Bottom to Top 20% of Income Earners
  • 25. Mass. Health Reform Has Had Positive Impacts, But Is Unsustainable “If we have double-digit increases (annually in costs), health reform is not sustainable.” Jon Kingsdale Executive Director, Commonwealth Connector “If we do not constrain healthcare costs, the system we worked so hard to create and implement will collapse..” Therese Murray Senate President, Massachusetts Legislature
  • 26. 20% 40% 60% 0% CommCare Enrollment 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 0 20000 60000 80000 0% Q2 '07 Nov '06 5% 40000 3,654 Dec '06 8% Q3 '07 Jan '07 Feb '07 Mar '07 Q4 '07 25% Apr '07 May '07 Jun '07 Q1 '08 20% Jul '07 Aug '07 Sep '07 Q2 '08 23% Oct '07 Nov '07 Dec '07 Q3 '08 28% Jan '08 5% Feb '08 177,136 Mar '08 Q4 '08 29% Apr '08 May '08 Q1 '09 33% Jun '08 Jul '08 Aug '08 Q2 '09 32% Sep '08 Oct '08 Commonwealth Care Enrollment Nov '08 Q3 '09 31% Dec '08 Jan '09 Feb '09 Q4 '09 31% Mar '09 Apr '09 May '09 Q1 '10 43% Jun '09 Jul '09 Aug '09 178,686 Q2 '10 42% Share of Commonwealth Care Enrollees Paying Premiums Sep '09 Oct '09 % Unemployed Nov '09 Q3 '10 42% Dec '09 Jan '10 Feb '10 Commonwealth Care Enrollment and Mass. Unemployment Rate 152,571 Q4 '10 9% 42% Mar '10 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Q1 '11 50% Back Coverage to Control Costs Massachusetts State Has Been Gradually Rolling Q2 '11 49% Unemployment
  • 27. Individual Mandate Also Unsustainable, Mass. Has Raised Affordability Thresholds Percent of Income Deemed Affordable for Health Premiums (Families of Three, 2007-2011) 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.5% 8.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 5.6% 4.9% 5.0% 2007 2011 4.0% 3.3% 3.4% 2.0% 0.0% 151% of 201% of 251% of 301% of 401% of 500% of Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty Poverty
  • 28. Takeaway Points for National Health Reform (PPACA) 1. Mass. reform affected the insurance status of about 4-5% of the population (half the previously uninsured), and improved access for about half of those. The impact in other states will vary depending on their existing safety net programs, but focus on access outcomes – not insurance coverage! 2. National reform is unlikely to have a significant impact on outcomes that predominantly afflict the insured population, including emergency department visits, medical debt, and health-related bankruptcy. 3. While safety net providers handle most of the increased demand for care that results from reform, Massachusetts and national reform rely on cuts to public health care programs that can threaten the viability of those providers. This increased demand will also increase strain on primary care provider networks. 4. Most of the population will be relatively unaffected by health reform, but will continue to experience the health care crisis of unaffordable premiums and high barriers to care. (They also vote!) 5. This model of reform defers serious action on cost control. Without addressing the systemic causes of our high costs – which has thus far proven politically impossible – access gains will face retrenchment, or will force us to sacrifice spending on other basic social goods.