24. - Larry Page
Founder of Google
”我々が作っているのは
検索エンジンではない
人工知能なのだ”
(2002年のインタビュー)
Copyright 2017 Masayuki Tadokoro All rights reserved
http://bigdata-madesimple.com/12-famous-quotes-on-artificial-intelligence-by-google-founders/
Startup Science 2017 (前半)
40. VHS DVD Down
load
Streaming ??
80年代
~90年代
90年代
~00年代
2010~
2015
2015~ 2020~
known of known
known of
unknown
unknown of
unknown
?
5~10年後
世界はどうなるか?
Copyright 2017 Masayuki Tadokoro All rights reserved
Startup Science 2017 (前半)
43. VR. is eating the world?
A.I. is eating the world?
Message service is eating the world?
Mobile APP is eating the world?
Software is eating the world?
Copyright 2017 Masayuki Tadokoro All rights reserved
Startup Science 2017 (前半)
77. 即日に
商品を届ける
looks bad idea
but good idea
グロッサリー
ショッピングを
代行し
1時間で届ける
AmazonがInstacartを認められなかった理由
Amazonが
納得できるアイディア
Amazonの既存
ビジネスを破壊する
アイディア
Copyright 2017 Masayuki Tadokoro All rights reserved
Startup Science 2017 (前半)
131. Whim社(フィンランド)
Mobility as a service
http://maas.global/whim-the-worlds-first-all-inclusive-mobility-service-promises-to-change-urban-travel-forever/
Copyright 2017 Masayuki Tadokoro All rights reserved
Startup Science 2017 (前半)
153. Business Model CanvasはPMFが達成できた企業向けである
Key PartnershipはFocusするべきでない,
Key Resourcesは時間で,
Customer Relationshipはカスタマーと話すこと
Key Activityはカスタマーと話してプロダクトを作ること
X
X
X
Business Model Canvasは使わない
X
Copyright 2017 Masayuki Tadokoro All rights reserved
重要でない
重要でない
重要でない
重要でない
Startup Science 2017 (前半)
Which one is the most important factor when you do startup?
Timing is the biggest key for success
http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gross_the_single_biggest_reason_why_startups_succeed#t-216631
he single biggest reason why startups succeed
Success of startups are depending on five factors;
idea, product, team, execution and timing
http://genius.com/Sam-altman-lecture-1-how-to-start-a-startup-annotated
Why do you do that start up now?
Why not two year from now, why not two years ago?
Target market keeps evolving;
the industry ecosystem keeps getting more
efficient; you can achieve more and more
with less and less resources
Exercise
Looking back your career, write something which you have domain expertise which other people typically do not have
Write one thing you are struggling with the area that needs to be improved
What is the history of the product/market?
Where is the market heading as going forward
What are the recent key trends by which solution to issue was enabled?
Start-up founderが聞くべきこと
Computer related start-up
% of IPO of 1983-founded
% of IPO of 1985-founded
3x IPOs in 1983!
Why Airbnb succeeded?
Many people who cannot pay lent or loan started using Airbnb after financial crisis
airbnbはリーマンショックの後という絶妙なタイミングだった。
Growth curve of Airbnb
http://www.leighdrogen.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/airbnbinfographic.png
Facebook started functioning as credential infra-structure
Facebookが多くの社会の与信インフラとして機能したから
Uber market capital; 50 billion after they founded 5 years ago
What were the timing factors?
Exercise
Looking back your career, write something which you have domain expertise which other people typically do not have
Write one thing you are struggling with the area that needs to be improved
Exercise
Looking back your career, write something which you have domain expertise which other people typically do not have
Write one thing you are struggling with the area that needs to be improved
software -
message -
API -
A.I -
マークアンダーリーセンがいっていた。
What is sustainable innovation?
Innovation takes place based on incumbent value standard
To improve the product without drastic change
It’s important not to be disliked by current customers
ここでは、既知のKPIがキーアクティビティーになる
Disruptive innovation
Disrupting incumbent technology and generate whole new value
It is brought by disruptive technology
It create new market
Today, Apple reinvent telephone
Exercise
Looking back your career, write something which you have domain expertise which other people typically do not have
Write one thing you are struggling with the area that needs to be improved
Overconfident:
We can crush them anytime we want to
Nose-dive
OMG, our market share is nose-diving
Too late:
There is no way to recover
Withdraw:
Let’s withdraw from the market
Disruption cycle
http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/19/uber-and-disruption/
http://jp.wsj.com/articles/SB12219608320597343816204581008912136442404
http://www.gizmodo.jp/2015/06/ceoiphone.html
Disruption cycle
Blackberry:
iPhone is not safe, poor battely and
nobody likes touch keyboard
OMG, this is way up there
We cannot catch up
How can we withdraw?
http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/19/uber-and-disruption/
http://jp.wsj.com/articles/SB12219608320597343816204581008912136442404
http://www.gizmodo.jp/2015/06/ceoiphone.html
2007年はBBシェアが圧倒的だった
2009年頃に勢いがついた
Why many corporate cannot bring disruptive innovation?
Apple is exceptional case, since he brought innovation with top-down approach
In most of business opportunities, large corporates have advantages since they have much more resources; start-up cannot compete in the competition where the resource richfullness counts.
However, these large corporate fails not by responding to disruptive innovation; they have optimized organization for incumbert value chain
In most of business opportunities, large corporates have advantages since they have much more resources; start-up cannot compete in the competition where the resource richfullness counts.
However, these large corporate fails not by responding to disruptive innovation; they have optimized organization for incumbert value chain
Apoorva, founder of Instacart, proposed Instacart model to Amazon management; it was turned down since the model was to defy what Amazon had been invested, i.e. warehouses and logistics
ここは誰から見ても魅力的なアイディアである
こういうアイディアは全然おもしろくない
Pioneers Asiaで900社ほどスクリーニグした
そこで、Uber for X Airbnb for Yみたいなモデルがたくさんあった
Disruptive innovation functions should be centered in the start-up organization
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/58187?page=3
Unfair advantage of start-up
Start-up founders can build the product while they are talking customers directly
Start-up founders
Joe Gebbia, Airbnb co-founder, was engaging in customer support for all day
Brian Chesky, co-founder of Airbnb, went customer’s place; talked to home-landlord customers one by one and took a room photo to promote Airbnb business
“You should know the secret other people don’t know”
Disruptive innovation functions should be centered in the start-up organization
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/58187?page=3
今日はゼロからイチのビジネスを発想するための
9つのフレームワークを紹介させていただきます。
Before Uber, taxi drivers were unable to drive their own car and were required to pay a fee to a licensed taxi operator to get their certified car. Uber has dis-intermediated the need for taxi drivers to pay that fee, and now they can become an UberX driver with their own car.
Taxi association
http://www.circu.co.jp/x_book_magazine/526
http://www.circu.co.jp/x_book_magazine/526
To unbundle of incumbent service/product which is ineffective as too many functions were added.
For example, news paper was unbundled into curation media. crasified ads and adsense solutions
Incumbent newspaper business
Optimizing for users by unbundling incumbent newspaper functions
API as a service
Insight as a service
Chatbot machine as a service
http://news.mynavi.jp/news/2016/01/04/277/
今日はゼロからイチのビジネスを発想するための
9つのフレームワークを紹介させていただきます。
There are many unknown secrets out there.
Entrepreneurs are to create future as they discover them and
create business based on them
Stanford Lecure からs
Calculate total addressable market
TAM is for total addressable market; it indicates maximum market size to which the business can address with all of conditions will be fulfilled
Current market size
Market growth potential
最適化!
75%の
カスタマー獲得
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAws7eXItMk
You don’t need detailed Business Plan
Write lean campus.
Lean campus is start-up frame work invented by Ash Maurya, author of Running lean.
You can easily visualize start-up business models
Running lean Ash
リーンキャンバスを使ってPlan Aを書いてみよう
しかしPlan Aは必ず変更するので、
Business model canvas is for regular corperate or interpreters:
you should not focus on key partnership,
key resource is time,
customer relationship is all about talking to customers,
and key activities are building product and talking to customers
There are three advantages in lean canvas
Agility: you can write up quickly
Simplisity: you can write up substancial aspects of business in simple manner
Mobility: you can update/share fairly easily
スタートアップにとってもっとも貴重な資源は時間である。
リソースが無くなる前に、最も多く学習したものが勝つ
This is the order you want to write lean canvas
How to write lean canvas
1 Issue: To target segment, what are top 3 issues to be solved
2 Customer segment: Specify uses. Clarify what kind of early adaptor will be there
3 Unique value proposition: What kind of value you
Early adaptor will determine your business model
不確定要素が高い順に検証する必要がある
To become expert of customer issue and make something customer wants
一番大事なことはfocusすること
4 Solution: At the beginning, you haven’t verified whether the issue really exists or not; write simple solution you can come up
5: Channel: There are not so many options when it comes to selection of channel; it is important that you will have to collect users to whom you can directly talk to
6: Revenue model: You don’t have to worry about too much, but do not provide product for free, put price tag on it
7: Cost structure: List up the cost how much does it cost until the point you will launch the product
8: Key metrics: Write your key metrics of your business success. Try to use AARRR, pirates metrics
9: Unfair advantage: This is difficult to fulfill; you can write at very last. You can write, secret, insider information, expert network, dream team, network effect, community and current customer
The most precious resource for start-up is time.
Start-up who learns the most before burn all the resources will will
Exercise:
Write lean canvas of Tinder, matching application
You download and login with your Facebook account
Set up conditions the person you want to meet.
You can start swiping person shown up to your screen;
if you like the person, swipe right, if not swipe left
Facebookで入る
If it is like-like situation, you get message “It’s a match” and you can start chat with them
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tinder&hl=ja
Facebookで入る
With monthly premium service (1200 JPY)
you can release the restrictions
Premium service
you can swipe unlimited times
you can change your location
Ad won’t be displayed
Let’s create lean canvas by splitting into 2 teams
Why do you use lean canvas?
If you ask the definition of business model,
there always will be 10 answers
By using lean canvas, you can communicate efficiently with your team
Learning timing comes too late with waterfall method.
You have to learn more by releasing product as early as you can
Product developmentプロセスが邪魔をする(反直感的)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYrCr_IoJFI 3:25
Waterfall型では、カスタマーの接点があまりにも遅すぎる
You have to find functioning business model by pivoting before time-out
Ash Maurya:
イテレーションをどうやってまわしていくか
Pivot is to change strategy without changing vision
Achieve PDF by finding right business model though pivots before time-out
Time-out before you find right business model
With your lean canvas, your team will decide what to pivot;
you will make a decision as everyone is convinced
Start-up is all about team play
Pivot which is not fully convinced by team member can bring fall-out of teams
How much did you learn while you are running iteration cycles
cofouderはpivotできない
“Make something people want”
Build product you want to build and release. Measure vanity metrics to justify your bias. Burn out before achieving PMF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAws7eXItMk
The best way to get start-up idea is not about thinking start-up ideas
スタートアップっぽい動きをするとそれは死への一歩である
Good start-ups are come from side project.
71% of start-up ideas are generated when the founders
You job
Resposiblity and accountability
Play a role assigned
Focus on urgency
Constraint with current value chain
Present-tense
Based on current solution
Based on current practice
Side project
Based on curiosity
Play yourself
Focus on importance
Think out of box
No constrain from current operation
Future-tense
Based on new solution
Think backwards from “should-be”
パートタイム
(週1回)
仮CEO
仮CTO
CEO
この時期は極めて流動的なので、会社を設立して、株を分割しないようにする
“We did plan to incorporate Facebook;
we were focusing on what our users wants and
build product to fulfill it”
Apoorva Metha, Instacart founder, came up with the idea
while he was Amazon employee; he started to build Instacart Beta version
Jerry Yang and David Filo, stanford students in 1994, create
portal site while they were full time students.
The portal site turned out to be Yahoo!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Yahoo!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Yang_(entrepreneur)
Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak were geeks on machine; they tried to build machine enabling long-distance free call;
this turned out to be Lisa, the 1st Apple machine
You should start with idea.
Then decide whether you will make a company
out of it or not