New Kid on the Block
The rise and fall of Google Andy Kessler

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Rules are established to create
order and maintain profits for incumbents. Examples of rules are: social mores, professional licenses, government regulation, locked-up distribution channels.

Cheaper technology suddenly allows for
the bypassing of the rules.

Incumbents are fat and dumb
and happy with current monopolistic profits and their general situation, so they bad-mouth any new stuff which threatens their incumbency or profits, or both.

Fringe players emerge to use
this ever cheaper technology to simply ignore the rules.

Fringe companies attract venture capital
since there are great profits to be made by underselling the incumbents.

Incumbents are in denial until
their profits are really threatened and/or market share begins to erode meaningfully.

Chaos ensues; fringe players are
threatened with lawsuits, government regulation, public shaming, etc.

Growth at the fringe accelerates,
as it is the right way to do business using new technology.

Incumbents co-opt the fringe, or
fringe players become the new incumbents and seek to establish new rules...

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