Forecasting Ad Impressions and Page Views for Bullseye Campaigns

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Andrew Mager

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Forecasting Page Views & Ad Impressions for Bullseye Ad Campaigns David Feng Statistical Analyst Intern GEL, Trax

What is Bullseye? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Existing Bullseye Procedures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Bullseye Q1’07 Q2’07 Q3’07 Q4’07 Q1’08 Q2’08 eCPM (censored) % of GS Revenue 9% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2%

The Bullseye Predictive Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

I. Data Collection ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

II: Predicting Page Views ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Heteroskedasticity: Big Games = Big Errors

Constructing the Forecast Interval ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Solution ,[object Object],[object Object]

Summary of Results – 30 Days Platform Week0 Week1 Week2 Week-1 Month1 X360 PS3 Wii PC DS PSP

Summary of Results – 60 Days Platform Week0 Week1 Week2 Week-1 Month1 X360 PS3 Wii PC DS PSP

Summary of Results – 90 Days Platform Week0 Week1 Week2 Week-1 Month1 X360 PS3 Wii PC DS PSP

Testing Validity of Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Next Steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Acknowledgements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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