Michael Timm (Stockler)
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Brazil experienced a record coffee crop in 2010-2011 but production is expected to decrease in 2011-2012 due to normal cyclical changes. Colombian production is slowly recovering from disasters in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010. Overall global demand for coffee is projected to continue growing steadily at around 2% per year, driven primarily by emerging markets. While production has recently balanced with demand, a surplus may develop by the end of the 2011-2012 crop year.
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Michael Timm (Stockler)
- 1. Nov 2011
- 2. Record crop in 10/11, but 11/12 will be smaller due to cyclical down-turn in Brazil Brazil-10/11 58.2 m. bags, 11/12 46.9 m. bags *- provisional
- 3. Brazil coffee exports remain at a high level
- 4. Colombian production is slowly recovering from disasters in 08/09 & 09/10 * Preliminary
- 5. Vietnam production remains at a high level, but is expected to fall in 10/11 * Preliminary .
- 6. Indonesia production is dipping due to excess rainfall during La Niña * Preliminary . Crop year start in April
- 7. Demand is growing Projection 1990-2000: 1.3% 2000-10: 2.1% 2010-20: 1.7%
- 8. Growth is coming from Emerging Markets Projection
- 9. Production balanced with demand in last 2 coffee years, surplus develops at end of 11/12
- 10. Total Demand Growth by Region per cent per annum
- 11. Robusta Demand Growth by Region per cent per annum
- 12. Natural Demand Growth by Region per cent per annum
- 13. Robusta share tends to be higher in growing regions *- includes India & N. Africa
- 14. Naturals not quite so well placed to take advantage of growth markets *- includes India & N. Africa
- 15. Demand for robusta has also been strong Projection 2000-10: 3.63% 2010-20: 2.3%
- 16. Increasing share of Robustas & Naturals in blend in importing countries
- 17. World Blend: Increasing use of Naturals in developed coffee markets of EU
- 18. Arabica share tends to be higher in developed countries Shares based on green imports 2005-07
- 19. The Changing Blend: As income increases the share of arabica increases. Finland
- 20. Rainforest Alliance has highest sales growth Average growth rate of 51% p.a since 2005 *- Projection
- 21. Utz sales growth is averaging 39% per annum *- Projection
- 22. Mild differentials have been almost as volatile as futures prices Basis FOB Prompt Shipment
- 23. And apparent loss of Brazil competitiveness Basis FOB Prompt Shipment
- 24. ICE Stocks are at an extremely levels To End Oct 2011
- 25. LIFFE Certified stocks have started to increase in 2011 To End Oct 2011
Editor's Notes
- However taking figures from the NCA of the USA we also note that there is an increased penetration of gourmet drinking in the USA with approximately 60% having drunk coffee within the last year We can not be sure of how this will be effected by the financial crisis however the long term trend is clear.
- However taking figures from the NCA of the USA we also note that there is an increased penetration of gourmet drinking in the USA with approximately 60% having drunk coffee within the last year We can not be sure of how this will be effected by the financial crisis however the long term trend is clear.
- However taking figures from the NCA of the USA we also note that there is an increased penetration of gourmet drinking in the USA with approximately 60% having drunk coffee within the last year We can not be sure of how this will be effected by the financial crisis however the long term trend is clear.
- The highest growth rate has been for rainforest alliance coffee where the average growth rate interms of sales is 80% p.a. a trend which is projected to carry on through this year.
- Looking at the Sales of coffee certified by UTZ we also see fantastic growth rates. Which have been on average 40% per annum.