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Thinking Critically with Psychological
Science
Research & Statistics
Chapter 1
Critical Thinking
thinking that does not
blindly accept arguments
and conclusions
Examines
discerns
evaluates
Assumptions
Hidden Values
evidence
Limits of Intuition
and Common Sense
Hindsight Bias
Overconfidence
But first…
A brief example of how NOT to
conduct an experiment care of Dr.
Venkman
Research Strategies
Theory
Hypothesis
The Scientific Method
generate or refine
research and
observations
lead to
hypothesis
theories
Operational Definition
Example-
IQ TESTS
Replication
Case Study
Survey
False Consensus Effect
Population
Random Sample
Research Strategies
If marbles of two
colors are mixed
well in the large
jar, the fastest
way to know
their ratio is to
blindly transfer
a few into a
smaller one and
count them
Naturalistic Observation
observing and recording
behavior in naturally
occurring situations
without trying to
manipulate and control
the situation
Correlation Coefficient
a statistical measure of the extent to which
two factors vary together and thus how well
either factor predicts the other
Correlation
coefficient
Indicates direction
of relationship
(positive or negative)
Indicates strength
of relationship
(0.00 to 1.00)
r = +.37
Scatterplot
–a graphed cluster of dots, each of
which represents the values of two
variables
–the slope of the points suggests the
direction of the relationship
–the amount of scatter suggests the
strength of the correlation
–little scatter indicates high correlation
–also called a scattergram or scatter
diagram
scatterplots
Perfect positive
correlation (+1.00)
No relationship (0.00) Perfect negative
correlation (-1.00)
Scatterplot of Height and
Temperament
55 60 65 70 75 80 85
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
Temperament
scores
Height in inches
Research Strategies
Height and Temperament of 20 Men
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
80
63
61
79
74
69
62
75
77
60
64
76
71
66
73
70
63
71
68
70
75
66
60
90
60
42
42
60
81
39
48
69
72
57
63
75
30
57
84
39
Subject
Height in
Inches
Temperament Subject
Height in
Inches
Temperament
Research Strategies
(1)
Low self-esteem
Depression
(2)
Depression
Low self-esteem
Low self-esteem
Depression
(3)
Distressing events
or biological
predisposition
could cause
could cause
could cause
or
or
and
Illusory Correlation
Illusory
Correlation
the
perceptio
n of a
relationsh
ip where
none
exists
Conceive Do not conceive
Adopt
Do not
adopt
disconfirming
evidence
confirming
evidence
disconfirming
evidence
confirming
evidence
Random Sequences
Your
chances of
being dealt
either of
these
hands is
precisely
the same:
1 in
the investigator manipulates one
or more factors (independent
variables) to observe their effect
on some behavior or mental
process (the dependent variable)
while controlling other relevant
factors by random assignment of
subjects
Experiment
Experiment cont.
by random assignment of
participants the experiment
controls other relevant
factors
Double-blind Procedure
Placebo
Experimental Condition
Control Condition
Random Assignment
**minimizes pre-existing
differences between those
assigned to the different
groups
Independent Variable
**the variable whose effect is
being studied
Dependent Variable
…in psychology it is usually a
behavior or mental process
Statistical Reasoning
Mode
Mean
Median
Statistical Reasoning
A Skewed Distribution
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 90 475 710
70
Mode Median Mean
One Family Income per family in thousands of dollars
Statistical Reasoning
Range
Standard Deviation
Statistical Significance
Positive Skew
Negative Skew
polygon
HISTOGRAM

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Chp1 Methods and Stats

Editor's Notes

  1. Examines assumptions discerns hidden values evaluates evidence
  2. Hindsight Bias tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it the “I-knew-it-all-along” phenomenon Overconfidence we tend to think we know more than we do
  3. Theory an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts observations Hypothesis a testable prediction often implied by a theory
  4. Theory an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts observations Hypothesis a testable prediction often implied by a theory
  5. Operational Definition a statement of procedures (operations) used to define research variables Example- intelligence may be operationally defined as what an intelligence test measures
  6. Replication repeating the essence of a research study to see whether the basic finding generalizes to other subjects and circumstances usually with different subjects in different situations Case Study an observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles
  7. Survey technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of people usually by questioning a representative, random sample of them False Consensus Effect tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs and behaviors
  8. Population all the cases in a group, from which samples may be drawn for a study Random Sample a sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion