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Top Down Investing An Individual Point of View
Passive vs Active Investing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fundamental vs Technical ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fundamental Approach ,[object Object]
Fundamental Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fundamental Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Technical Approach ,[object Object]
Technical Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Technical Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bottom Up Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Top Down Approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A market assessment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
So what? Now what? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Choices everywhere ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A set of beliefs and a conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Picking a set of markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Analyzing markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
7 regions of the Tortoise world market model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Emerging markets EEM Europe EZU Latin America 40 (large caps) ILF European/Australasian index EFA Asia (less Japan) EPP Japan EWJ US S&P 500 Index SPY Name Ticker
Weekly Regional performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],32 6.29% 1.18% 5.40% -2.06% -1.84% -1.44% -1.46% -1.78% S&P 500 SPY 46 52.08% 19.09% 12.87% -1.63% -4.35% -2.50% -1.28% -0.66% Latin America 40 ILF 45 7.40% 0.98% 6.59% 2.58% 1.24% 0.61% -1.98% -0.61% MSCI EMU Index EZU 80 26.24% 23.47% 16.05% 7.99% 6.12% 4.56% 1.81% -0.95% Japan EWJ 30 9.16% -2.20% 3.16% -1.89% -2.88% -2.24% -2.69% 0.55% Pacific less Japan EPP 47 11.92% 5.37% 8.05% 2.57% 0.99% -0.08% -1.61% -0.62% EAFE index EFA 62 32.37% 11.64% 14.39% 3.59% 2.38% 1.32% 0.86% -0.89% Emerging Markets EEM Tndx %40wk %20wk %10wk %5wk %4wk %3wk %2wk %1wk FundName Ticker
World Market Model US Indices: each of these Exchange Traded Funds is liquid and are traded like stocks on the AMEX, with the important distinction that they can be shorted on a downtick DIA SPY QQQ IJJ MDY IJK IJS IJR IJT Value Blend Growth Large Mid Small
World Market Model DIA SPY QQQ IJJ MDY IJK IJS IJR IJT EWJ EPP ILF EFA EZU EKH TLT RWR LQD Regional indices from around the world:   each of these ETFs is liquid and are traded like stocks on the AMEX, with the important distinction that they can be shorted on a downtick. These ETFs add important overseas regions as well as a set of miscellaneous sectors that are not correllated to US equities Japan Asia, less Japan Longterm Treasuries Corporate bond index Real estate index a mix of Europe/ Asia European largecaps European index Latin America 40 large caps
World Market Model DIA SPY QQQ IJJ MDY IJK IJS IJR IJT EWJ EPP ILF EFA EZU EKH TLT RWR LQD EWG EWK EWL EWN EWD EWO EWP EWQ EWU Country indices from around the world:   adds in the next layer of detail with individual countries and additional key stocks (NEM and PD) for commodities. BEARX NEM PD IYM HOV EWH EWM EWS EWT EWA EWY Australia South Korea Hong Kong Malaysia Taiwan Singapore Sweden Germany Belgium Switzerland Netherlands Austria Spain France UK EWC EWW EWZ EEM Canada Brazil Emerging markets Mexico Home builders Gold Basic Mat Metals Bear Fund IFN India
World Market Model DIA SPY QQQ IJJ MDY IJK IJS IJR IJT EWJ EPP ILF EFA EZU EKH TLT RWR LQD EWH EWM EWS EWT EWA EWY EWG EWK EWL EWN EWD EWO EWP EWQ EWU BEARX NEM PD IYM HOV IFN EWC EWW EWZ EEM BZF
Tortoise Strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tortoise World Market Model
Details
Tortoise method summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
So what? Based on 100K portfolio So far, consistent outperformance 85.60% 20.40% 27.90% 98.10%     N/A 1999 % -36.10% -9.80% -6.03% 26.60%     N/A 2000 % -31.13% -12.12% -5.62% 9.88%     N/A 2001 % -38.41% -23.35% -16.89% -8.62%     N/A 2002 % 43.54% 22.19% 21.34% 22.71%     N/A 2003 % 7.82% 7.73% 2.50% 10.42%   N/A 2004 % $104,810 $103,500 $99,655 $127,728 $109,161   2005 $Value 4.81% 3.50% -0.34% 27.73% 9.16% 2005 YTD% -2.51% -1.87% -1.67% 1.07% -1.22% This Week %  NASDAQ (QQQQ)  S&P 500 (SPY)  DOW (DIA) Tortoise Mutual Funds Annual Passive ETF  System Weekly Bench Mark - as of Dec 31,  2005
Roadmap Passive Active Fundamental Technical Combination Top Down Bottoms Up Action Management Assessment Markets Assessment Markets Management Assessment

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Top Down Investing

  • 1. Top Down Investing An Individual Point of View
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. World Market Model US Indices: each of these Exchange Traded Funds is liquid and are traded like stocks on the AMEX, with the important distinction that they can be shorted on a downtick DIA SPY QQQ IJJ MDY IJK IJS IJR IJT Value Blend Growth Large Mid Small
  • 21. World Market Model DIA SPY QQQ IJJ MDY IJK IJS IJR IJT EWJ EPP ILF EFA EZU EKH TLT RWR LQD Regional indices from around the world: each of these ETFs is liquid and are traded like stocks on the AMEX, with the important distinction that they can be shorted on a downtick. These ETFs add important overseas regions as well as a set of miscellaneous sectors that are not correllated to US equities Japan Asia, less Japan Longterm Treasuries Corporate bond index Real estate index a mix of Europe/ Asia European largecaps European index Latin America 40 large caps
  • 22. World Market Model DIA SPY QQQ IJJ MDY IJK IJS IJR IJT EWJ EPP ILF EFA EZU EKH TLT RWR LQD EWG EWK EWL EWN EWD EWO EWP EWQ EWU Country indices from around the world: adds in the next layer of detail with individual countries and additional key stocks (NEM and PD) for commodities. BEARX NEM PD IYM HOV EWH EWM EWS EWT EWA EWY Australia South Korea Hong Kong Malaysia Taiwan Singapore Sweden Germany Belgium Switzerland Netherlands Austria Spain France UK EWC EWW EWZ EEM Canada Brazil Emerging markets Mexico Home builders Gold Basic Mat Metals Bear Fund IFN India
  • 23. World Market Model DIA SPY QQQ IJJ MDY IJK IJS IJR IJT EWJ EPP ILF EFA EZU EKH TLT RWR LQD EWH EWM EWS EWT EWA EWY EWG EWK EWL EWN EWD EWO EWP EWQ EWU BEARX NEM PD IYM HOV IFN EWC EWW EWZ EEM BZF
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  • 28. So what? Based on 100K portfolio So far, consistent outperformance 85.60% 20.40% 27.90% 98.10%     N/A 1999 % -36.10% -9.80% -6.03% 26.60%     N/A 2000 % -31.13% -12.12% -5.62% 9.88%     N/A 2001 % -38.41% -23.35% -16.89% -8.62%     N/A 2002 % 43.54% 22.19% 21.34% 22.71%     N/A 2003 % 7.82% 7.73% 2.50% 10.42%   N/A 2004 % $104,810 $103,500 $99,655 $127,728 $109,161   2005 $Value 4.81% 3.50% -0.34% 27.73% 9.16% 2005 YTD% -2.51% -1.87% -1.67% 1.07% -1.22% This Week %  NASDAQ (QQQQ)  S&P 500 (SPY)  DOW (DIA) Tortoise Mutual Funds Annual Passive ETF  System Weekly Bench Mark - as of Dec 31,  2005
  • 29. Roadmap Passive Active Fundamental Technical Combination Top Down Bottoms Up Action Management Assessment Markets Assessment Markets Management Assessment