Innovation Leader at Arthur Lok Jack Graduate School of Business, The University of the West Indies um Arthur Lok Jack Graduate School of Business, The University of the West Indies
13. Aug 2015•0 gefällt mir•981 views
1 von 47
Platform for the Transformation of the Energy Sector: by Senator the Honourable Kevin Ramnarine Minister of Energy and Energy Affairs at the Energy Lecture Series
13. Aug 2015•0 gefällt mir•981 views
Senator the Honourable Kevin Ramnarine, Minister of Energy and Energy Affairs speech from the Energy Lecture Series 2015 hosted by the Arthur Lok Jack Graduate School of Business on Wed. 12th Auguster 2015.
August 12th 2015
1. Changes in the Fiscal Regime have worked
2. Turnaround drilling and investment in E&P
3. Five competitive Bid Rounds were undertaken
4. Stabilization of oil production
5. Licensed 9 blocks in Deepwater (>1000 meters)
6. Signed 21 PSC’s/ Licenses
7. Concluded largest ever seismic survey by IOC.
8. Five major hydrocarbon discoveries in 2010 to 2015
9. BP invested in Juniper (largest ever Capex in upstream)
10. Funding research into Heavy Oil
11. Significant progress on Loran-Manatee
4. Midstream / Downstream
NGC acquisition of Conoco Phillips Shares in PPGPL
NGC acquisition of Total’s assets in T&T
Growth in NGC assets and profits ($6.5 billion in 2013 after tax)
Mitsubishi / Massy / NGC – Methanol to DME project
Port of Galeota
Upgrade to Port of Brighton
Policies and Procedures
1. National Oil Spill Contingency Plan
2. Natural Gas Master Plan (Poten and Partners)
3. Feed In Tariff Policy
4. National Facilities Audit (Det Norske Veritas)
EITI Country Compliant Status
13. Population 7.3 billion in 2015.
Population 9.7 billion by 2050
Population 11.2 billion by 2100
Global GDP growing at 3.4% (end of 2014) 2.4% first 6mts 2015
Global energy consumption will grow by 41% (2012 vs 2035)
95% of this growth to come from emerging economies
Rising middle class in China and India
Over 1 billion cars in the world
Country with most cars: United States
Fastest growing car market: China
Trinidad and Tobago already produces all of its electricity from natural gas
and we are one of only two countries to do so, the other being Qatar.
Can achieve greater efficiency through combined cycle generation at all its
power plants - the optimal energy mix with the lowest greenhouse gas
emissions in order to achieve sustainable development
With 50% of all Simple Cycle Gas Turbines being replaced (equivalent to
460MW) with Combined Cycle Gas Turbines, the efficiency will change
from 26.6% to 38.5%, with an increase in thermal efficiency of these
turbines of 44.7%.
In terms of carbon dioxide emissions, 5 million tons would be reduced
from this turbine change-out.
The introduction of a Feed in Tariff policy which will allow the
people of Trinidad & Tobago to become power producers and sell
any excess electricity produced from their solar panels to T&TEC.
This will be a first in our country’s history by using renewable
energy to enable the citizens to install their own solar panels and
small wind turbines and connect to the T&TEC grid.
In all cases, this leads to significant savings in electricity bills and
from other country experiences, consumers can actually earn
income in this way.
CFL Bulb Energy Savings - Light Blub Exchange Programme
Average kWh Consumption (CFL) Average kWh Consumption (Incandescent)
Pilot study found that the potential amount of natural gas that
could be saved if CFL bulbs were installed in all 406,300 homes in
T&T would be 3000 MMCF - equivalent to 5% of the natural gas
used for power generation in the country, which could be used for
29. Trinidad and Tobago's Mitigation Contribution
30% reduction in GHG emissions by December 31, 2030 in the public
transportation sector compared to a business as usual (BAU)
scenario (reference year 2013). -submission to UNFCC, INDC 2015
T&T GHG Emissions by Sector (2008)
30. Thus far 1285 tons of carbon dioxide are being saved annually
with the use of 35 CNG Buses (10% of fleet)
500 CNG Buses will allow for reductions of 262,300 tons of carbon
31. DID YOU KNOW?
That if a regular Diesel Bus was replaced by a CNG Bus, it would save up to
36 tons of CO2 emissions annually!
PTSC currently operates 35 CNG buses which have potential fuel savings of
up to $670,000 per year. When all the new CNG buses are rolled out the
savings could be up to $6.4 million per year.
The industrial sector in Trinidad & Tobago accounts for about 60% of the
electricity demand and is therefore a logical target for potential energy savings.
An energy efficiency study conducted in 2011 by National Energy Corporation
concluded that energy usage in the Point Lisas Industrial Estate could be reduced
As a result of energy audits on ammonia, methanol and iron & steel facilities,
estimated annual savings of over US$2.8million with a payback period of less
than 5 years could be achieved if energy efficiency investments were to be made
This translates to over 47,000 tonnes of CO2 savings per annum – equivalent to
taking 10,000 cars off the nation’s roads.
Energy Service Companies (ESCOs)
Low Carbon/Green Economy in Trinidad & Tobago
Globally the policy discourse has shifted towards a more “green”
Policy makers are seeking to eradicate poverty with a more
sustainable course of economic development.
The Green Economy promotes the triple bottom line:
sustaining and advancing economic, environmental and social
• A NEW Industry
• Creation of Jobs in sales, installation, maintenance
• Public and Private Partnerships- Very Good examples worldwide
• Training and Capacity Building
• Educational and Awareness Tool – for children to appreciate the
value of Energy.
Hybrid Electric Vehicles Construction of Solar House
38. Only 21 of the existing global fleet of LNG carriers of
approximately 421 can currently fit through the
With the expansion this will increase to 336 LNG
Maximum Crude tanker capacity can be expected to
increase upwards of 25%, due to the expanded canal
(Scotiabank Global Economics 2015).
In the next 5 years LNG markets are expected to grow as many new
projects come online in Australia and the United States.
This new supply will create an over supply that will persist until demand
centers slowly develop.
Initially the Pacific basin will trade at a surplus, pressuring Asian prices,
while driving excess cargoes into the Atlantic.
As US projects begin to export, cross basin flows will reduce leaving
excess cargoes in both basins to find homes at distressed prices.
The LNG market and the shipping market will be over supplied in the
Long term contracts will no longer be the norm
Flows becoming more regionalised & North East Asia will no longer be
the market driver
LNG industry outlook
41. LNGDEMAND LNGSUPPLY
LNG demand will grow at ~5% pa doubling in size in the period 2010 to 2020
Supply response >$700 billion industry investment 2010-2025
Source: Shell Analysis
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Japan/ Korea/ Taiwan SEAsia
Trinidad and Tobago's Mitigation Contribution
Additional reduction achievable under certain conditions which would bring the total GHG reduction to 15% below BAU emission levels by December 31, 2030. – submission to UNFCC, INDC 2015
The growth in gas demand has already led to many new opportunities for LNG, to bridge long distances between supply and demand regions and to unlock remote gas reserves. The LNG market has doubled in the first decade of this century, reaching 200 mtpa in 2010.
That‟s an annual average increase of 8%. We expect the market to double again to 2020, to 400mpta and perhaps to reach 500 mpta in the middle of the next decade. Our forecast for 5% LNG growth per year drives the LNG share of global gas markets to over 15% by 2030, compared to 10% today.
Demand growth in the last decade has been dominated by customers in Japan, South Korea, and Europe and this growth primarily comes from demand from power generation and industrial use, with smaller contributions from residential demand. These countries will remain important buyers in the future, but you can see the expansion of new markets on the slide. There are new opportunities for Shell in these non-traditional markets, where we are looking at new re-gasification terminals for our growth gas, for example East India and the Philippines.
The growth outlook you can see here in Europe would leave LNG at around 20% of gas supply by 2020, compared to 15% today, as domestic reserves decline and Europe seeks to establish security of supply from LNG.
On the supply side of the equation there is no global shortage of gas, and no shortage of project proposals. However, there are challenges from the long lead times, from the industry‟s capacity to build multiple projects and from financing. We estimate that the LNG industry could require over $700 billion of investment over 15 years; to bring the supplies on-stream that would be required on this chart. And that estimate could rise with inflation.
We doubt that new supplies will outpace LNG demand growth over the longer term, because project sponsors want to see long-term offtake commitment to underpin new LNG investments and customers are looking for reliable, well financed, long term suppliers. There will certainly be periods of softer and tighter LNG markets, due to short term GDP fluctuations and project start-ups, but fundamentally we see a tight LNG market through this decade at least.