Senator the Honourable Kevin Ramnarine, Minister of Energy and Energy Affairs speech from the Energy Lecture Series 2015 hosted by the Arthur Lok Jack Graduate School of Business on Wed. 12th Auguster 2015. August 12th 2015

1. 1
Senator the Honourable Kevin Ramnarine
Minister of Energy and Energy Affairs
Energy Lecture Series 2015
Arthur Lok Jack, Graduate School of Business
August 12th 2015

2. Looking Back 2010 to 2015
2

3. Upstream
1. Changes in the Fiscal Regime have worked
2. Turnaround drilling and investment in E&P
3. Five competitive Bid Rounds were undertaken
4. Stabilization of oil production
5. Licensed 9 blocks in Deepwater (>1000 meters)
6. Signed 21 PSC’s/ Licenses
7. Concluded largest ever seismic survey by IOC.
8. Five major hydrocarbon discoveries in 2010 to 2015
9. BP invested in Juniper (largest ever Capex in upstream)
10. Funding research into Heavy Oil
11. Significant progress on Loran-Manatee
3

4. Midstream / Downstream
NGC acquisition of Conoco Phillips Shares in PPGPL
NGC acquisition of Total’s assets in T&T
Growth in NGC assets and profits ($6.5 billion in 2013 after tax)
Mitsubishi / Massy / NGC – Methanol to DME project
Infrastructure
Port of Galeota
Upgrade to Port of Brighton
4

5. 5
Policies and Procedures
1. National Oil Spill Contingency Plan
2. Natural Gas Master Plan (Poten and Partners)
3. Feed In Tariff Policy
4. National Facilities Audit (Det Norske Veritas)
EITI Country Compliant Status

6. 6

7. 7

8. 8

9. 9
Trinidad & Tobago Upstream Activity Map

10. 10
Trinidad & Tobago 2010-2014 Seismic Surveys

11. 11
Trinidad & Tobago 2010-2014 Seismic Surveys

12. Energy
Global Context and Trends
12

13.  Population 7.3 billion in 2015.
 Population 9.7 billion by 2050
 Population 11.2 billion by 2100
 Global GDP growing at 3.4% (end of 2014) 2.4% first 6mts 2015
 Global energy consumption will grow by 41% (2012 vs 2035)
 95% of this growth to come from emerging economies
 Rising middle class in China and India
 Over 1 billion cars in the world
 Country with most cars: United States
 Fastest growing car market: China
13

14. 14

15. 15
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16
MillionsofBarrelsofOil
Demand
Supply

16. -
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
10000.0
12000.0
14000.0
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
MTOE
World energy demand 1965 to 2013 OECD vs non OECD
Non OECD: India, China,
OECD: USA, Japan, England,
France etc

17. 0
100
200
300
400
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil Natural Gas Biomass Wind Coal Nuclear Solar Other renewables
DEMAND GROWTH 1980 - 2050
Energy demand outlook in million boe/d
 Energydemand+60%2010– 2050
 Hydrocarbonsdominateoutlook
 Gasdemanddoubling2010-2050
July 2013

18. Oil
33%
Natural Gas
24%
Coal
30%
Nuclear
Energy
4%
Hydro electric
7%
Renewables
2%
World Energy Supply by Source of Energy 2013

19. Carbon Dioxide &
The Low Carbon Economy
19

20. 20
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
MillionsofTonsofCO2Emissions
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions (1971 - 2012)
OECD Total
Non-OECD Total
International marine bunkers
International aviation bunkers

21. 21
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
MillionsofTonsofCO2
Trinidad & Tobago Carbon Dioxide Emissions

22. 22
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
China United
States
India Russia Japan Germany Korea Canada Iran Saudia
Arabia
MillionsofTonsofCO2
Top 10 Global Carbon Dioxide Emitters (2012)

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-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
KgCO2perCapita
Top 10 Carbon Dioxide Emitters Per Capita

24. 24
Trinidad and Tobago already produces all of its electricity from natural gas
and we are one of only two countries to do so, the other being Qatar.
Can achieve greater efficiency through combined cycle generation at all its
power plants - the optimal energy mix with the lowest greenhouse gas
emissions in order to achieve sustainable development
With 50% of all Simple Cycle Gas Turbines being replaced (equivalent to
460MW) with Combined Cycle Gas Turbines, the efficiency will change
from 26.6% to 38.5%, with an increase in thermal efficiency of these
turbines of 44.7%.
In terms of carbon dioxide emissions, 5 million tons would be reduced
from this turbine change-out.

25. Renewable Energy
Energy Efficiency
Green Economy
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26. 26

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The introduction of a Feed in Tariff policy which will allow the
people of Trinidad & Tobago to become power producers and sell
any excess electricity produced from their solar panels to T&TEC.
This will be a first in our country’s history by using renewable
energy to enable the citizens to install their own solar panels and
small wind turbines and connect to the T&TEC grid.
In all cases, this leads to significant savings in electricity bills and
from other country experiences, consumers can actually earn
income in this way.

28. 28
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
CFL Bulb Energy Savings - Light Blub Exchange Programme
Average kWh Consumption (CFL) Average kWh Consumption (Incandescent)
Pilot study found that the potential amount of natural gas that
could be saved if CFL bulbs were installed in all 406,300 homes in
T&T would be 3000 MMCF - equivalent to 5% of the natural gas
used for power generation in the country, which could be used for
potential export.

29. Trinidad and Tobago's Mitigation Contribution
Unconditional:
 30% reduction in GHG emissions by December 31, 2030 in the public
transportation sector compared to a business as usual (BAU)
scenario (reference year 2013). -submission to UNFCC, INDC 2015
56%
28%
11%4%
1%
T&T GHG Emissions by Sector (2008)
Petrochemical Sector
Power Generation
Transport Sector
Manufacturing Sector
Residential Sector

30. Thus far 1285 tons of carbon dioxide are being saved annually
with the use of 35 CNG Buses (10% of fleet)
500 CNG Buses will allow for reductions of 262,300 tons of carbon
dioxide annually.

31. DID YOU KNOW?
That if a regular Diesel Bus was replaced by a CNG Bus, it would save up to
36 tons of CO2 emissions annually!
PTSC currently operates 35 CNG buses which have potential fuel savings of
up to $670,000 per year. When all the new CNG buses are rolled out the
savings could be up to $6.4 million per year.

32. 32
The industrial sector in Trinidad & Tobago accounts for about 60% of the
electricity demand and is therefore a logical target for potential energy savings.
An energy efficiency study conducted in 2011 by National Energy Corporation
concluded that energy usage in the Point Lisas Industrial Estate could be reduced
by 15%.
As a result of energy audits on ammonia, methanol and iron & steel facilities,
estimated annual savings of over US$2.8million with a payback period of less
than 5 years could be achieved if energy efficiency investments were to be made
(IDB, 2013).
This translates to over 47,000 tonnes of CO2 savings per annum – equivalent to
taking 10,000 cars off the nation’s roads.
Energy Service Companies (ESCOs)

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34. 34
Low Carbon/Green Economy in Trinidad & Tobago
Globally the policy discourse has shifted towards a more “green”
economic paradigm
Policy makers are seeking to eradicate poverty with a more
sustainable course of economic development.
The Green Economy promotes the triple bottom line:
sustaining and advancing economic, environmental and social
well-being.

35. 35
• A NEW Industry
• Creation of Jobs in sales, installation, maintenance
• Public and Private Partnerships- Very Good examples worldwide
• Training and Capacity Building
• Educational and Awareness Tool – for children to appreciate the
value of Energy.
Hybrid Electric Vehicles Construction of Solar House

36. Liquefied Natural Gas
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38.  Only 21 of the existing global fleet of LNG carriers of
approximately 421 can currently fit through the
Panama Canal.
 With the expansion this will increase to 336 LNG
tankers.
 Maximum Crude tanker capacity can be expected to
increase upwards of 25%, due to the expanded canal
(Scotiabank Global Economics 2015).
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110 million tons+ of new supply to
come online by 2018 or 35%
increase over current global trade

40. 40
In the next 5 years LNG markets are expected to grow as many new
projects come online in Australia and the United States.
This new supply will create an over supply that will persist until demand
centers slowly develop.
Initially the Pacific basin will trade at a surplus, pressuring Asian prices,
while driving excess cargoes into the Atlantic.
As US projects begin to export, cross basin flows will reduce leaving
excess cargoes in both basins to find homes at distressed prices.
The LNG market and the shipping market will be over supplied in the
short term
Long term contracts will no longer be the norm
Flows becoming more regionalised & North East Asia will no longer be
the market driver
LNG industry outlook

41. LNGDEMAND LNGSUPPLY
 LNG demand will grow at ~5% pa doubling in size in the period 2010 to 2020
 Supply response >$700 billion industry investment 2010-2025
Source: Shell Analysis
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
India
Japan/ Korea/ Taiwan SEAsia
China Europe
Africa
Australia
Asia
MENA
CIS/ Europe
Other Americas
Qatar
July 2013

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44. The Guyana
Basin

45. P50 Resources (Oil) = 13.9 billion
barrels
P50 Resources (Gas)= 36.8 TCF
The Guyana
Basin

46. Port Galeota
Lize-1
Guyan
a
Recent well with oil
shows
Suriname
Zaedyus-1
French
Guyana