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Case: 12-105    Document: 700      Page: 6    01/04/2013       808549   32




  12-105-cv (L)
12-109-cv(CON), 12-111-cv(CON), 12-157-cv(CON),
12-163-cv(CON), 12-164-cv(CON), 12-170-cv(CON),
12-185-cv(CON), 12-189-cv(CON), 12-214-cv(CON),
                                                          12-158-cv(CON),
                                                          12-176-cv(CON),
                                                          12-909-cv(CON),
12-914-cv(CON), 12-916-cv(CON), 12-919-cv(CON),           12-920-cv(CON),
12-923-cv(CON), 12-924-cv(CON), 12-926-cv(CON),           12-939-cv(CON),
12-943-cv(CON), 12-951-cv(CON), 12-968-cv(CON),           12-971-cv(CON)
12-4694-cv(CON), 12-4829-cv(CON), 12-4865-cv(CON)




                       d
    United States Court of Appeals
                      FOR THE SECOND CIRCUIT


NML CAPITAL, LTD., AURELIUS CAPITAL MASTER, LTD., ACP MASTER, LTD.,
BLUE ANGEL CAPITAL I LLC, AURELIUS OPPORTUNITIES FUND II, LLC, PABLO
ALBERTO VARELA, LILA INES BURGUENO, MIRTA SUSANA DIEGUEZ, MARIA
EVANGELINA CARBALLO, LEANDRO DANIEL POMILIO, SUSANA AQUERRETA,
MARIA ELENA CORRAL, TERESA MUNOZ DE CORRAL, NORMA ELSA LAVORATO,
CARMEN IRMA LAVORATO, CESAR RUBEN VAZQUEZ, NORMA HAYDEE GINES,
MARTA AZUCENA VAZQUEZ, OLIFANT FUND, LTD.,
                                                       Plaintiffs-Appellees,
                   (caption continued on inside cover)


               ON APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
                   FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK


   BRIEF FOR AMICUS CURIAE PROFESSOR ANNE KRUEGER
IN SUPPORT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARGENTINA AND REVERSAL



                                       Edward Scarvalone
                                       DOAR RIECK KALEY & MACK
                                       217 Broadway, Suite 707
                                       New York, New York 10007
                                       (212) 619-3730
                                       Attorneys for Amicus Curiae
                                         Professor Anne Krueger
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                               —v.—

                   THE REPUBLIC   OF   ARGENTINA,
                                                    Defendant-Appellant,
       THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON, as Indenture Trustee,
      EXCHANGE BONDHOLDER GROUP, FINTECH ADVISORY INC.,
                                                    Non-Party Appellants,
               EURO BONDHOLDERS, ICE CANYON LLC,
                                                             Intervenors.
Case: 12-105           Document: 700            Page: 8         01/04/2013          808549         32



                                        TABLE OF CONTENTS


Interest of Amicus Curiae ..........................................................................................1

ARGUMENT .............................................................................................................3

NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES WILL RESULT
FROM REQUIRING RATABLE PAYMENTS TO
HOLDOUTS FROM PAST DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS .......................................3

A. Debt Sustainability ..............................................................................................4

B. Importance of International Capital Market
   For Emerging Markets ........................................................................................6

C. Need for Short-Term External Funding .............................................................. 7

D. Likely Negative Effects of Court Decision on Sovereign Debt Markets ......... 11

E. Conclusions .......................................................................................................16

CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................18
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                                    TABLE OF AUTHORITIES

Rules:

Fed. R. App. Proc. 29(b) ...........................................................................................1

Second Circuit Local Rule 29.1 ................................................................................1




                                                         ii
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             With the Court’s leave, Professor Anne Krueger submits this brief as

amicus curiae supporting reversal of the decisions of the district court that are on

appeal to the extent they require the Republic of Argentina to pay holdouts from

past sovereign debt restructurings ratably with restructured debt holders. 1

                        INTEREST OF AMICUS CURIAE

             Anne Krueger is Senior Research Professor of International

Economics at the Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International

Studies (SAIS). She has written and taught extensively about international

economics and sovereign debt restructuring. She is past President and

Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association and a member of the

National Academy of Sciences.

             Professor Krueger served as First Deputy Managing Director of the

International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 2001-2006, and as Acting Managing

Director for three months during 2005. While serving in these capacities, she was

closely involved in the IMF’s efforts to preserve stability of the international

financial system, prevent economic crises, and, when such crises did occur,

help resolve them.


   1
      This brief is filed contemporaneously with a motion seeking leave to file
pursuant to Federal Rule of Appellate Procedure 29(b). Pursuant to Local Rule
29.1, no party’s counsel authored this brief in whole or in part; and no person,
other than amicus or her counsel, contributed money that was intended to fund
preparing or submitting this brief.
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             Before serving at the IMF, Professor Krueger was the Herald L. and

Caroline L. Ritch Professor of Humanities and Sciences in the Department of

Economics at Stanford University, and the founding Director of Stanford’s Center

for International Development. She was chief economist of the World Bank from

1982 through 1986.

             Professor Krueger’s interest in a proper understanding of sovereign

debt restructuring is deep and longstanding. While at the IMF, she was

instrumental in developing the IMF’s proposal for a sovereign debt restructuring

mechanism, see A New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring (International

Monetary Fund, Washington 2002), and co-authored “Sovereign Workouts: An

IMF Perspective,” Chicago Journal of International Law, Vol. 6, No.1 (2005). 2

             As an economist who has studied and written extensively about

sovereign debt restructuring, Professor Krueger provides a valuable perspective

about the consequences that would flow from requiring holdouts from past debt

restructurings to be paid ratably with restructured debt holders. These

consequences would be felt by debtor nations, creditors, the United States, and the

international economy as a whole. Her discussion will assist the Court in

addressing the important issues presented by this appeal.



   2
     Professor Krueger’s curriculum vitae and a full list of her publications can be
found at http://legacy2.sais-jhu.edu/faculty/krueger.
                                        -2-
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                                   ARGUMENT
              NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES WILL RESULT
             FROM REQUIRING RATABLE PAYMENTS TO
           HOLDOUTS FROM PAST DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

             This brief is written by an economist, and can only speak to the

economics of sovereign debt and the sovereign debt market.

             From an economist’s point of view, there are three interrelated,

preliminary, issues that are important, and need addressing, in order to assess the

likely effects of requiring ratable payments to holdouts from past debt

restructurings. The first concerns the question of the circumstances in which

sovereigns may be unable to service their debt. The second is the importance of

the sovereign debt market for all countries, but especially for emerging markets.

The third is the need for addressing unsustainable sovereign debt, and the ways in

which it can most productively be handled.

             Those three matters are considered first. Then, attention turns to the

likely effects on the sovereign debt market and emerging market countries of a

move to require ratability of outstanding holdout debt when a country, whose debt

has been restructured, can again access private capital markets. Those effects

include the likely higher cost of sovereign borrowing even for countries that are

deemed creditworthy, the effects on sovereigns encountering debt-servicing




                                         -3-
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difficulties, and the problems such a requirement would pose for the International

Monetary Fund (IMF).

A. Debt Sustainability

             It is important to recognize that borrowing to finance productive

investments can enhance growth and growth prospects in countries whose

macroeconomic policies (and other economic policies) are reasonably sound.

Although sovereigns can and do access official creditors for some of their

financing, official credit is extended primarily to low-income countries, while

emerging market sovereigns rely much more on private lenders.

             Just as there are times in commercial life when firms cannot service

their debt, there are circumstances in which sovereigns have unsustainable debt

burdens. Moreover, just as with firms encountering difficulties, sovereigns can

face major difficulties while still able to access international markets, albeit at

higher interest rates and reduced maturities.

             The reasons are much the same as with commercial bankruptcies.

When a country’s sovereign debt is mounting (as a percentage of GDP), holders of

sovereign debt become increasingly reluctant to roll it over as the risk that the

sovereign may not be willing or able to pay rises.

             In many cases, difficulties arise as several phenomena, including a

global economic slowdown, a sharp fall in the price of a major export, or an


                                          -4-
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increase in the price of a key import such as oil or food grains) occur within the

same time period. In the early 1980s, for example, interest rates rose sharply at the

same time as the world economy went into recession so that exports earnings of

some heavily indebted countries fell while debt service obligations on floating-rate

debt rose. Some currencies were devalued which led to an increasing domestic

burden of the debt (including principal repayments due) at the same time as interest

rates rose, further increasing debt-service ratios. Moreover, some of these

countries’ governments incurred rising fiscal deficits because tax revenues were

down (due to domestic recession or other reasons), and fiscal expenditures

increased to offset the effects of recession. 3

             As fiscal deficits (or other factors) result in an increasing debt ratio,

the market assessment of likely future difficulties increases. In countries where

corrective action is not taken, the interest rate on their debt rises and the maturities

of rolled over and new debt shorten. If the authorities still fail to react, a point can

be reached at which even the principal coming due cannot be rolled over (and the

fiscal deficit cannot be financed without printing money).



   3
      In some instances, of course, excessively expansionary fiscal policies can
themselves result in a rapidly rising fiscal deficit and hence sovereign debt. A case
in point was Mexico in the early 1980s, where government expenditures increased
even more rapidly than the large revenues accruing from greatly increased oil
exports, and the government borrowed rather than raising taxes.

                                           -5-
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             In reality, markets do not wait until debt is truly unsustainable. A

truly unsustainable debt would arise when there was no set of policies the

authorities could undertake to restore macroeconomic balance and service their

debts. (If the authorities did undertake a set of credible policies to enable debt-

servicing to resume, markets would likely respond by increasing willingness to

lend). But when it becomes obvious that sufficient actions to restore sustainability

cannot or will not be taken, creditors refuse to finance new issues or even to

rollover debt, and a sovereign debt crisis occurs.

B. Importance of International Capital Market for Emerging Markets

             Since domestic investment cannot exceed the sum of domestic savings

plus the net foreign capital inflow (by definition), foreign capital inflows can

enable increased investment (with the flows of know-how and technology that

some of these can bring) and higher growth rates when macroeconomic policies

(and incentives for investment) are sound.

             It should be noted that the same sorts of forces are at work for

sovereigns as would be at work with a domestic firm prospectively facing

bankruptcy were there no legal resolution mechanism: creditors would refuse new

credit and attempt to offload existing debt. As they did so, the firm’s survival

prospects would evaporate even sooner than with a commercial bankruptcy where,

if the value of the firm as an entity is greater than the valuation of its individual


                                          -6-
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assets, a write-down can occur so that the going concern can survive. The

incentives for creditors holding sovereign debt to sell their holdings (and fail to

buy up issues when rollovers are needed) are strong.

             In the case of commercial domestic bankruptcies, the resolution of a

crisis comes about as the courts assess the reorganization plan; if the stricken firm

has a reasonable prospect of returning more value as a going concern than it would

have with the breakup and sale of the assets, the resolution process returns more

value to shareholders and preserves value.

             Unlike commercial bankruptcy, however, there is currently no

international bankruptcy court for sovereigns. Moreover, a sovereign cannot be

forced to sell off assets.4 When the sovereign accepts that voluntary debt servicing

is infeasible, a collective action problem arises. It is in the interests of all that debt

be restructured expeditiously, in order for the domestic economy to resume

functioning (and therefore be capable of larger debt-service payments). Longer

crisis periods harm the sovereign’s domestic economy and international creditors.

C. Need for Short-Term External Funding

             This leads immediately to the third preliminary issue: what needs to

be done when it is clear that sovereign debt is unsustainable without some sort of


   4
      In many instances, however, policy packages designed to restore
creditworthiness and growth to sovereigns do entail the privatization of
government owned enterprises.
                                           -7-
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outside interaction. As stated earlier, the usual situation is one in which the fiscal

deficit has led to rising sovereign debt for some time, and the debt ratio is high and

rising, while the spreads demanded by creditors are becoming steeper and

maturities at which they will lend at all shorter. Usually, too, economic growth has

slowed, if not stalled, and real GDP may even be falling.

              In those circumstances, several things need to occur: (1) something

has to be done to enable debt servicing to continue or there must be a restructuring

of debt; (2) macroeconomic policy changes must be made to generate a greater

primary surplus (or smaller primary deficit) 5 and this necessarily entails measures

to raise revenues and/or reduce expenditures; and (3) a way must be found to

enable prospects for economic activity and economic growth to improve over time.

             Debt service can be continued in these circumstances only with

external support; the alternative is restructuring of the debt, or default. External

support (usually from official agencies, led by the IMF) can enable a country to

maintain its debt service.6 But without changing the expected future path of the


   5
       The primary surplus is defined as government expenditures minus all
government revenues except interest payments on debt. Thus, the primary surplus
is the amount that can be allocated to debt servicing.
   6
      In many instances, external support is also needed in order to enable
resumption of normal commercial relations. This is especially true if the
authorities have tried to maintain a fixed exchange rate (or let it depreciate too
slowly relative to domestic inflation) and export earnings have weakened.

                                          -8-
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primary surplus, it can be, at best, a very temporary palliative. 7 That is why

changes in macroeconomic policy are essential – not only to lower the fiscal deficit

but to insure that, going forward, a sufficient primary surplus will be forthcoming

to enable the country once again to finance its debt servicing obligations. When it

is feasible for a country to be able to resume its debt servicing obligations after a

period of reform, that course is almost always chosen by the country’s authorities. 8

             When a country’s debt is truly unsustainable, short of really

unforeseen positive changes (such as discovery of oil) debt must be restructured

with a reduction in the net present value of creditors’ holdings. Even with policy

reforms, the country’s capacity to service its debt would be insufficient to enable it

fully to do so.

             Greece provides a case in point. Even with a shift from primary

deficit to primary surplus and macroeconomic and structural reforms, it was

inconceivable that Greece could grow sufficiently fast, and obtain a sufficient


   7
     The IMF cannot lend until there is a program in place to assure that the
sovereign can resume voluntary debt-servicing within a reasonable period of time.
The decision to undertake restructuring is the sovereign’s, but the alternatives are
usually bleak enough that the sovereign seeks IMF support and undertakes
economic policy changes.
   8
       For example, after the crisis in 1997, the Korean authorities undertook
economic reforms supported by an IMF program. The Koreans maintained
voluntary debt service but could not have done so without external assistance in the
short run.

                                          -9-
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primary surplus. Without restructuring, the debt ratio would have soared well over

200 percent of GDP under optimistic assumptions; there was no way that economic

growth could be fast enough, or the primary surplus increased quickly enough, to

enable Greece voluntarily to continue servicing its debt. The debt ratio was clearly

unsustainable.

             But the third requisite is equally important: without both policy

changes and financial support, a country with unsustainable sovereign debt has

very poor prospects. Sovereigns certainly cannot access private capital markets in

the midst of a debt crisis; yet without some financing, maintaining even the

existing level of economic activity is infeasible. But economic activity must

prospectively increase or the debt ratio will rise as GDP falls.

             To date, the IMF has taken the lead role in sovereign debt crises.

When invited, it has worked with country authorities to develop macroeconomic

plans that will be consistent with a resumption of growth and the country’s ability

within a few years to return to normal debt servicing and to access to private

international capital markets. Often, it is the technical competence and experience

of the IMF staff that contributes significantly to the development of a program of

macroeconomic and other necessary policy changes that would enable a return to

growth and solvency.




                                         - 10 -
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             The IMF has a double function (although the two are highly

interrelated). On one hand, the IMF supports the country’s authorities in devising

a credible economic program, usually for two or three years. That, in turn,

increases the credibility of the sovereign to the country’s creditors. On the other

hand, the IMF lends to the sovereign to enable the financing of the program during

its first two or three years as the policy changes take effect. Without financial

support, the retrenchment in fiscal policy would be so sharp that economic activity

would likely plummet, thereby reducing government revenues and thus harming

any prospects for recovery. Without policy change, the financial support could

not, in the longer term, offer the promise of improved economic performance and

creditors would refuse to resume lending.

D. Likely Negative Effects of Court Decision on Sovereign Debt Markets

             If sovereigns were required, as a condition to making payments on

restructured debt, 9 to repay holdout creditors on a preferential basis once their level

of economic activity and creditworthiness was reestablished, there would be




   9
     In the period prior to resolution of the issues involved in paying ratable debt,
the markets in sovereign debt would also be affected by uncertainty and delays in
repayments on debt which the sovereign would otherwise have serviced. Once the
new ruling was in force, of course, that possibility would be priced into the spreads
on sovereign debt.

                                         - 11 -
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several negative effects.10 These would include: (l) the increased reluctance of

creditors to share in any restructuring and hence an increase in the likelihood and

number of holdouts; (2) higher interest costs for all sovereign borrowers; (3) a

reduction in capital inflows even for countries with sound macroeconomic policies;

(4) increased delays by sovereigns before accepting the need for restructuring and

thus higher costs to borrower and creditors alike; and (5) issues for the

International Monetary Fund in supporting countries where policy reform could

lead to a return to debt sustainability and voluntary debt-servicing if debt were

restructured.

                These interrelated effects would feed cumulatively on each other but

are discussed separately. The first effect is the increased reluctance of creditors to

share in any restructuring. If existing creditors believed that the sovereign in

question would be required to make ratable payments to them once the economy

and creditworthiness had recovered, they would surely be more reluctant to agree

voluntarily to a restructuring. The reason is self-evident: the expectation of




   10
       The premise of this sentence is virtually self-contradictory. Should holdout
creditors be expected to be paid on a ratable basis with new borrowing by the
sovereign, the reluctance to lend would increase greatly (and the incentive to hold
out would increase). In these circumstances, it is unlikely that the sovereign could
regain creditworthiness, and certainly the path to restored creditworthiness would
be far more painful and time-consuming.

                                          - 12 -
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receiving greater payments at a later date would lead to a higher threshold for

accepting a restructuring offer.

             Collective Action Clauses (CACs) were introduced into some

sovereigns’ bond issues. Although some have argued that CACs reduce the

likelihood of holdouts, that is by no means certain. CACs have been included in

bond issues only in the past decade and there is insufficient experience with them

to date to have empirical evidence with respect to their effects. No country with

CACs in its bonds has been close to restructuring, so it is certainly not possible to

reach a firm conclusion that CACs would prevent holdouts. But even with CACs,

holders of particular issues could vote against restructuring (indeed, holdouts could

buy just more than the percentage of the issue required to restructure).

             To address this concern, some CACs (five countries so far) have two

parts: each bond issue contains provisions that (1) a specified percentage of

holders of that issue voting in favor of restructuring binds all holders of that issue

to an agreed-upon restructuring (as above); and (2) a different aggregate

percentage of all bondholders is specified to bind holders across issues.

             Thus, if 75 percent of creditors’ approval was required to compel all

holders of a particular issue to accept restructuring, a creditor or group of creditors

holding 26 percent of the issue would be sufficient to block acceptance, unless, if

there were aggregation, a different percentage were met to restructure across all


                                         - 13 -
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issues. So while CACs may preclude holdouts in some cases, it is not clear that

they would do so in all. Moreover, CACs are not binding on other creditors (such

as debt to commercial banks). As the likelihood of other holdouts increases, and

the possibility of preferential treatment for holdouts later increases, the

attractiveness of accepting a restructuring offer would diminish for bond holders.

             That there would be higher interest costs for all sovereign borrowers

is also self-evident. Even countries with sound macroeconomic policies can run

into difficulties because of factors possibly outside their control. As already seen,

a sharp drop in the price of oil for an exporter, an abrupt shift in the terms of trade,

and other factors can lead to difficulties. Would-be creditors, knowing this, can

judge few sovereign bonds to be totally absent of any risk of the need for

restructuring. If the likelihood of holdouts rises, and the difficulty and costs of

restructuring increases, that would penalize all sovereigns attempting to access the

international financial markets.

             This in turn, would result in the third negative consequence: even

countries that were following sound economic policies would experience smaller

capital inflows. The very fact that interest rates were higher would induce a

reduction in net capital inflows. But, in addition, the penalties for reaching

unsustainable debt would increase substantially as creditors’ knowledge that, if

there were difficulties, access to international capital markets would be precluded


                                         - 14 -
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for a longer period of time than is currently probable. As already noted, there is

always risk of adverse developments. At present, debt ratios of about 40 percent

are deemed “safe” for most emerging markets. That ratio would almost certainly

drop if preferential treatment of unrestructured debt were later required in cases of

debt restructuring.

             It may also be noted that increasing the penalty for restructuring

would surely make the authorities in countries with incipient debt-servicing

difficulties even more reluctant to recognize their plight, and hence raise the costs

to borrowers and creditors alike when restructuring finally did occur. That would

likely delay the decision to attempt restructuring, thus raising the costs of the

sovereign’s difficulties to creditor and debtor alike.

             The ratability requirement would also render the IMF’s role more

problematic. As noted earlier, the IMF lends to countries with debt difficulties if

the loan and policy reforms can be expected to result in an increased primary

surplus sufficient for the country to be able to service its debts within a time frame

of 3-5 years. But if there were holdouts, the time period in which the country

could return to the international capital markets would be longer both because the

costs of servicing new debt would increase (because of outstanding unrestructured

ratable debt and higher interest costs to all borrowers). That, in turn, would reduce

the likelihood that economic growth would resume, and the likely growth rate,


                                         - 15 -
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even after reforms, would still be lower (if positive at all). That, at a minimum,

would make the needed policy reforms even more stringent, and would more likely

result in a long period without IMF support and a return to creditworthiness. 11

E.        Conclusions

                There are debt levels that are unsustainable. In those cases,

restructuring of the debt on a timely basis with necessary policy reforms, and

short-term financial support, is the best policy solution for a country and the

world.

                Without an international regime for sovereign restructurings, creditors

and the debtor have negotiated with each other, with the IMF playing a key role in

advising on policy reforms, providing credibility to the sovereign, and extending

the needed financing in the period during which the reforms take hold and

creditworthiness will be reestablished.

                The problem of holdouts in voluntary debt restructurings has long

been an issue. CACs were introduced in the hope that they would prevent the

holdout problem. It is by no means certain that they are sufficient to enable

restructurings, and the likelihood of problems would increase were holdouts


     11
       While a breakup of the firm is the ultimate resort in cases of private
bankruptcies, the limit with unsustainable sovereign debt is political stability.
When reforms are painful and the prospective benefits long delays, the political
resistance to reforms and the likelihood of political instability increases.

                                           - 16 -
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assured (or be given reason to believe they would receive) preferential treatment

later.

               Holdout creditors are therefore still a possible issue in circumstances

where a country’s difficulties with debt-servicing difficulties are mounting.

Ratability requirements would increase the attractiveness of holding-out, thus

reducing the likelihood of achieving the needed threshold. Even if restructuring

did occur, ratability requirements would certainly delay the point at which the

country could reaccess the private international capital market, because the costs of

any new borrowing would include payments under ratability to holdouts. That, in

turn, would increase the stringency of the policy reforms needed in order for the

IMF to support a reform program and restructuring.

               For sovereign debtors following sound macroeconomic policies, the

costs of borrowing would rise and hence the rate of growth they could attain would

be reduced. For countries where debt servicing difficulties were increasing, fear of

the consequences of restructuring would be heightened, thus delaying the day

when the necessary restructuring was undertaken and prolonging a period of low

growth.

               All of these consequences would reduce prospects for growth in

developing countries, increase the costs to creditors and debtors of debt resolution,




                                           - 17 -
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harm the international sovereign debt market, and reduce the ability of the private

international capital market to enhance the growth of developing countries.

                                 CONCLUSION
      For the reasons stated above, the decisions of the district court on appeal

should be reversed insofar as they impose a ratability requirement.

Dated: New York, New York
       January 4, 2013
                                       Respectfully submitted,
                                       DOAR RIECK KALEY & MACK
                                       Attorneys for Amicus Curiae
                                       Anne Krueger

                                By:       /s/ Edward Scarvalone
                                       EDWARD SCARVALONE
                                       217 Broadway, Suite 707
                                       New York, New York 10007
                                       (212) 619-3730




                                        - 18 -
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                     CERTIFICATE OF COMPLIANCE

       Pursuant to Rule 32(a)(7)(C) of the Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure,
the undersigned counsel for Amicus Curiae hereby certifies that this brief
complies with the type-volume limitation of Rule 32(a)(7)(B). As measured by
the word processing system used to prepare the brief, there are 4110 words in this
brief.


                                       /s/ Edward Scarvalone
                                     EDWARD SCARVALONE
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               CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE & CM/ECF FILING

                                    12-105-cv(L)
             I hereby certify that I caused the foregoing Motion for Leave to File
Amicus Curiae Brief to be served on all counsel via Electronic Mail generated by
the Court’s electronic filing system (CM/ECF) with a Notice of Docket Activity
pursuant to Local Appellate Rule 25.1:
Theodore B. Olson                                  William Francis Dahill
Matthew McGill                                     Wollmuth Maher & Deutsch LLP
Jason J. Mendro                                    500 5th Avenue, Suite 1200
Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP                        New York, NY 10110
1050 Connecticut Avenue, NW                        212-382-3300
Washington, DC 20036                               Attorneys for Non-Party Appellant
202-955-8668                                       Fintech Advisory Inc.

Robert A. Cohen                                    Meir Feder
Eric C. Kirsch                                     Jones Day
Charles Ian Poret                                  222 East 41st Street
Dechert LLP                                        New York, NY 10017
1095 Avenue of the Americas                        212-326-7870
New York, NY 10036                                 Attorneys for Intervenor
212-698-3501                                       ICE Canyon LLC
Attorneys for Plaintiff-Appellee
NML Capital, Ltd.                                  Christopher J. Clark
                                                   Latham & Watkins LLP
Gary S. Snitow                                     885 3rd Avenue
Michael C. Spencer                                 New York, NY 10022
Milberg LLP                                        212-906-1200
1 Pennsylvania Plaza, 48th Floor                   Attorneys for Intervenor Euro Bondholders
New York, NY 10119
212-594-5300                                       Carmine D. Boccuzzi, Jr.
                                                   Christopher P. Moore
Attorneys for Plaintiffs-Appellees                 Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP
Pablo Alberto Varela, Lila Ines Burgueno, Mirta    1 Liberty Plaza
Susana Dieguez, Maria Evangelina Carballo,         New York, NY 10006
Leandro Daniel Pomilio, Susana Aquerreta, Maria    212-225-2000
Elena Corral, Teresa Munoz De Corral, Teresa
Munoz De Corral, Norma Elsa Lavorato, Carmen       Jonathan I. Blackman
Irma Lavorato, Cesar Ruben Vazquez, Norma          Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP
Haydee Gines, Marta Azucena Vazquez                City Place House
                                                   55 Basinghall Street
                                                   London, EC2V 5EH
                                                   England
                                                   +442076142200

                                                   Attorneys for Defendant-Appellant
                                                   Republic of Argentina
Case: 12-105      Document: 700       Page: 30     01/04/2013       808549      32

Roy T. Englert, Jr.                                  Jeannette Anne Vargas
Mark Stancil                                         John Clopper
Robbins, Russell, Englert, Orseck, Untereiner &      Assistant U.S. Attorneys
Sauber LLP                                           United States Attorney's Office,
1801 K Street, NW, Suite 411                         Southern District of New York
Washington, DC 20006                                 86 Chambers Street, 3rd Floor
202-775-4500                                         New York, NY 10007
                                                     212-637-2678
Melissa Kelly Driscoll                               Attorneys for Amicus Curiae
Menz Bonner Komar & Koenigsberg LLP                  United States of America
444 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10022                                   Joseph Emanuel Neuhaus
212-223-2100                                         Michael Jason Ushkow
                                                     Sullivan & Cromwell LLP
Edward A. Friedman                                   125 Broad Street
Andrew W. Goldwater                                  New York, NY 10004
Jessica Murzyn                                       212-558-4240
Emily A. Stubbs                                      Attorneys for Amicus Curiae
Friedman Kaplan Seiler & Adelman LLP                 The Clearing House Association L.L.C.
7 Times Square
New York, NY 10036                                   Ronald Mann
212-833-1100                                         Columbia Law School
                                                     435 West 116th Street
Kimberly A. Hamm                                     New York, NY 10027
Barry R. Ostrager                                    212-854-1570
Tyler B. Robinson                                    Amicus Curiae
Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP
425 Lexington Avenue                                 Kevin S. Reed
New York, NY 10017                                   Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, LLP
212-455-2000                                         51 Madison Avenue, 22nd Floor
                                                     New York, NY 10010
Jeffrey A. Lamken                                    212-849-7000
MoloLamken LLP                                       Attorneys for Amicus Curiae Kenneth W. Dam
600 New Hampshire Avenue
Washington, DC 20037                                 Richard Abbott Samp
202-556-2010                                         Washington Legal Foundation
                                                     2009 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Walter Rieman                                        Washington, DC 22207
Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP         202-588-0302
1285 Avenue of the Americas                          Attorneys for Amicus Curiae
New York, NY 10019                                   Washington Legal Foundation
212-373-3000

Attorneys for Plaintiffs-Appellees
Aurelius Capital Master, Ltd., ACP Master, Ltd.,
Blue Angel Capital I LLC, Aurelius Opportunities
Fund II, LLC and Amici Curiae Montreaux Partners
L.P. and Wilton Capital

                                             2
Case: 12-105      Document: 700     Page: 31     01/04/2013      808549       32

Stephen D. Poss                                     Joel M. Miller
Robert D. Carroll                                   Miller & Wrubel P.C.
Goodwin Procter LLP                                 570 Lexington Avenue, 25th Floor
Exchange Place, 53 State Street                     New York, NY 10022
Boston, MA 02109                                    212-336-3501
617-570-1000                                        Attorneys for Amici Curiae
Attorneys for Plaintiff-Appellee                    Ricardo Ramirez Calvo, Luis A. Erize, Martin E.
Olifant Fund, LTD.                                  Paolantonio, Estela B. Sacristan and EM Ltd.

Eric A. Schaffer                                    Timothy Graham Nelson
James C. Martin                                     Marco Schnabl
Colin E. Wrabley                                    Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP
Reed Smith LLP                                      4 Times Square
Reed Smith Centre                                   New York, NY 10036
225 5th Avenue, Suite 1200                          212-735-2193
Pittsburgh, PA 15222                                Attorneys for Movant
412-288-4202                                        Puente Hermanos Sociedad de Bolsa SA
Attorneys for Non-Party Appellant
The Bank of New York Mellon, as Indenture Trustee   Jack L. Goldsmith, III
                                                    Harvard Law School
Sean F. O'Shea                                      Areeda 233
Amanda Lynn Devereux                                1563 Massachusetts Avenue
Daniel M. Hibshoosh                                 Cambridge, MA 02138
Michael E. Petrella                                 617-384-8159
O'Shea Partners LLP
521 5th Avenue                                      Judd Grossman
New York, NY 10175                                  Grossman LLP
212-682-4426                                        590 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor
                                                    New York, NY 10022
David A. Barrett                                    646-770-7445
Steven I. Froot                                     Attorneys for Movants Montreux Partners L.P.
Nicholas A. Gravante, Jr.                           and Wilton Capital
Boies, Schiller & Flexner LLP
575 Lexington Avenue                                Charles Alan Rothfeld
New York, NY 10022                                  Paul Whitfield Hughes
212-446-2300                                        Mayer Brown LLP
                                                    1999 K Street, NW
David Boies                                         Washington, DC 20006
Boies, Schiller & Flexner LLP                       202-263-3233
333 Main Street                                     Attorneys for Movant
Armonk, NY 10504                                    American Bankers Association
914-749-8200

Attorneys for Non-Party Appellant
Exchange Bondholder Group




                                            3
Case: 12-105    Document: 700   Page: 32   01/04/2013    808549   32


I certify that an electronic copy was uploaded to the Court’s electronic filing
system. Three hard copies of the foregoing Motion for Leave to File Amicus
Curiae Brief were sent to the Clerk’s Office by hand delivery to:

                                 Clerk of Court
                 United States Court of Appeals, Second Circuit
                           United States Courthouse
                            500 Pearl Street, 3rd floor
                          New York, New York 10007
                                (212) 857-8500

on this 4th day of January 2013.
                                           /s/ Samantha Collins
                                           Samantha Collins




                                       4

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Brief for amicus curiae professor Anne Krueger in support of the Republic of Argentina and reversal

  • 1. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 6 01/04/2013 808549 32 12-105-cv (L) 12-109-cv(CON), 12-111-cv(CON), 12-157-cv(CON), 12-163-cv(CON), 12-164-cv(CON), 12-170-cv(CON), 12-185-cv(CON), 12-189-cv(CON), 12-214-cv(CON), 12-158-cv(CON), 12-176-cv(CON), 12-909-cv(CON), 12-914-cv(CON), 12-916-cv(CON), 12-919-cv(CON), 12-920-cv(CON), 12-923-cv(CON), 12-924-cv(CON), 12-926-cv(CON), 12-939-cv(CON), 12-943-cv(CON), 12-951-cv(CON), 12-968-cv(CON), 12-971-cv(CON) 12-4694-cv(CON), 12-4829-cv(CON), 12-4865-cv(CON) d United States Court of Appeals FOR THE SECOND CIRCUIT NML CAPITAL, LTD., AURELIUS CAPITAL MASTER, LTD., ACP MASTER, LTD., BLUE ANGEL CAPITAL I LLC, AURELIUS OPPORTUNITIES FUND II, LLC, PABLO ALBERTO VARELA, LILA INES BURGUENO, MIRTA SUSANA DIEGUEZ, MARIA EVANGELINA CARBALLO, LEANDRO DANIEL POMILIO, SUSANA AQUERRETA, MARIA ELENA CORRAL, TERESA MUNOZ DE CORRAL, NORMA ELSA LAVORATO, CARMEN IRMA LAVORATO, CESAR RUBEN VAZQUEZ, NORMA HAYDEE GINES, MARTA AZUCENA VAZQUEZ, OLIFANT FUND, LTD., Plaintiffs-Appellees, (caption continued on inside cover) ON APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK BRIEF FOR AMICUS CURIAE PROFESSOR ANNE KRUEGER IN SUPPORT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARGENTINA AND REVERSAL Edward Scarvalone DOAR RIECK KALEY & MACK 217 Broadway, Suite 707 New York, New York 10007 (212) 619-3730 Attorneys for Amicus Curiae Professor Anne Krueger
  • 2. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 7 01/04/2013 808549 32 —v.— THE REPUBLIC OF ARGENTINA, Defendant-Appellant, THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON, as Indenture Trustee, EXCHANGE BONDHOLDER GROUP, FINTECH ADVISORY INC., Non-Party Appellants, EURO BONDHOLDERS, ICE CANYON LLC, Intervenors.
  • 3. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 8 01/04/2013 808549 32 TABLE OF CONTENTS Interest of Amicus Curiae ..........................................................................................1 ARGUMENT .............................................................................................................3 NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES WILL RESULT FROM REQUIRING RATABLE PAYMENTS TO HOLDOUTS FROM PAST DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS .......................................3 A. Debt Sustainability ..............................................................................................4 B. Importance of International Capital Market For Emerging Markets ........................................................................................6 C. Need for Short-Term External Funding .............................................................. 7 D. Likely Negative Effects of Court Decision on Sovereign Debt Markets ......... 11 E. Conclusions .......................................................................................................16 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................18
  • 4. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 9 01/04/2013 808549 32 TABLE OF AUTHORITIES Rules: Fed. R. App. Proc. 29(b) ...........................................................................................1 Second Circuit Local Rule 29.1 ................................................................................1 ii
  • 5. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 10 01/04/2013 808549 32 With the Court’s leave, Professor Anne Krueger submits this brief as amicus curiae supporting reversal of the decisions of the district court that are on appeal to the extent they require the Republic of Argentina to pay holdouts from past sovereign debt restructurings ratably with restructured debt holders. 1 INTEREST OF AMICUS CURIAE Anne Krueger is Senior Research Professor of International Economics at the Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). She has written and taught extensively about international economics and sovereign debt restructuring. She is past President and Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. Professor Krueger served as First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 2001-2006, and as Acting Managing Director for three months during 2005. While serving in these capacities, she was closely involved in the IMF’s efforts to preserve stability of the international financial system, prevent economic crises, and, when such crises did occur, help resolve them. 1 This brief is filed contemporaneously with a motion seeking leave to file pursuant to Federal Rule of Appellate Procedure 29(b). Pursuant to Local Rule 29.1, no party’s counsel authored this brief in whole or in part; and no person, other than amicus or her counsel, contributed money that was intended to fund preparing or submitting this brief.
  • 6. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 11 01/04/2013 808549 32 Before serving at the IMF, Professor Krueger was the Herald L. and Caroline L. Ritch Professor of Humanities and Sciences in the Department of Economics at Stanford University, and the founding Director of Stanford’s Center for International Development. She was chief economist of the World Bank from 1982 through 1986. Professor Krueger’s interest in a proper understanding of sovereign debt restructuring is deep and longstanding. While at the IMF, she was instrumental in developing the IMF’s proposal for a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism, see A New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring (International Monetary Fund, Washington 2002), and co-authored “Sovereign Workouts: An IMF Perspective,” Chicago Journal of International Law, Vol. 6, No.1 (2005). 2 As an economist who has studied and written extensively about sovereign debt restructuring, Professor Krueger provides a valuable perspective about the consequences that would flow from requiring holdouts from past debt restructurings to be paid ratably with restructured debt holders. These consequences would be felt by debtor nations, creditors, the United States, and the international economy as a whole. Her discussion will assist the Court in addressing the important issues presented by this appeal. 2 Professor Krueger’s curriculum vitae and a full list of her publications can be found at http://legacy2.sais-jhu.edu/faculty/krueger. -2-
  • 7. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 12 01/04/2013 808549 32 ARGUMENT NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES WILL RESULT FROM REQUIRING RATABLE PAYMENTS TO HOLDOUTS FROM PAST DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS This brief is written by an economist, and can only speak to the economics of sovereign debt and the sovereign debt market. From an economist’s point of view, there are three interrelated, preliminary, issues that are important, and need addressing, in order to assess the likely effects of requiring ratable payments to holdouts from past debt restructurings. The first concerns the question of the circumstances in which sovereigns may be unable to service their debt. The second is the importance of the sovereign debt market for all countries, but especially for emerging markets. The third is the need for addressing unsustainable sovereign debt, and the ways in which it can most productively be handled. Those three matters are considered first. Then, attention turns to the likely effects on the sovereign debt market and emerging market countries of a move to require ratability of outstanding holdout debt when a country, whose debt has been restructured, can again access private capital markets. Those effects include the likely higher cost of sovereign borrowing even for countries that are deemed creditworthy, the effects on sovereigns encountering debt-servicing -3-
  • 8. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 13 01/04/2013 808549 32 difficulties, and the problems such a requirement would pose for the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A. Debt Sustainability It is important to recognize that borrowing to finance productive investments can enhance growth and growth prospects in countries whose macroeconomic policies (and other economic policies) are reasonably sound. Although sovereigns can and do access official creditors for some of their financing, official credit is extended primarily to low-income countries, while emerging market sovereigns rely much more on private lenders. Just as there are times in commercial life when firms cannot service their debt, there are circumstances in which sovereigns have unsustainable debt burdens. Moreover, just as with firms encountering difficulties, sovereigns can face major difficulties while still able to access international markets, albeit at higher interest rates and reduced maturities. The reasons are much the same as with commercial bankruptcies. When a country’s sovereign debt is mounting (as a percentage of GDP), holders of sovereign debt become increasingly reluctant to roll it over as the risk that the sovereign may not be willing or able to pay rises. In many cases, difficulties arise as several phenomena, including a global economic slowdown, a sharp fall in the price of a major export, or an -4-
  • 9. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 14 01/04/2013 808549 32 increase in the price of a key import such as oil or food grains) occur within the same time period. In the early 1980s, for example, interest rates rose sharply at the same time as the world economy went into recession so that exports earnings of some heavily indebted countries fell while debt service obligations on floating-rate debt rose. Some currencies were devalued which led to an increasing domestic burden of the debt (including principal repayments due) at the same time as interest rates rose, further increasing debt-service ratios. Moreover, some of these countries’ governments incurred rising fiscal deficits because tax revenues were down (due to domestic recession or other reasons), and fiscal expenditures increased to offset the effects of recession. 3 As fiscal deficits (or other factors) result in an increasing debt ratio, the market assessment of likely future difficulties increases. In countries where corrective action is not taken, the interest rate on their debt rises and the maturities of rolled over and new debt shorten. If the authorities still fail to react, a point can be reached at which even the principal coming due cannot be rolled over (and the fiscal deficit cannot be financed without printing money). 3 In some instances, of course, excessively expansionary fiscal policies can themselves result in a rapidly rising fiscal deficit and hence sovereign debt. A case in point was Mexico in the early 1980s, where government expenditures increased even more rapidly than the large revenues accruing from greatly increased oil exports, and the government borrowed rather than raising taxes. -5-
  • 10. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 15 01/04/2013 808549 32 In reality, markets do not wait until debt is truly unsustainable. A truly unsustainable debt would arise when there was no set of policies the authorities could undertake to restore macroeconomic balance and service their debts. (If the authorities did undertake a set of credible policies to enable debt- servicing to resume, markets would likely respond by increasing willingness to lend). But when it becomes obvious that sufficient actions to restore sustainability cannot or will not be taken, creditors refuse to finance new issues or even to rollover debt, and a sovereign debt crisis occurs. B. Importance of International Capital Market for Emerging Markets Since domestic investment cannot exceed the sum of domestic savings plus the net foreign capital inflow (by definition), foreign capital inflows can enable increased investment (with the flows of know-how and technology that some of these can bring) and higher growth rates when macroeconomic policies (and incentives for investment) are sound. It should be noted that the same sorts of forces are at work for sovereigns as would be at work with a domestic firm prospectively facing bankruptcy were there no legal resolution mechanism: creditors would refuse new credit and attempt to offload existing debt. As they did so, the firm’s survival prospects would evaporate even sooner than with a commercial bankruptcy where, if the value of the firm as an entity is greater than the valuation of its individual -6-
  • 11. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 16 01/04/2013 808549 32 assets, a write-down can occur so that the going concern can survive. The incentives for creditors holding sovereign debt to sell their holdings (and fail to buy up issues when rollovers are needed) are strong. In the case of commercial domestic bankruptcies, the resolution of a crisis comes about as the courts assess the reorganization plan; if the stricken firm has a reasonable prospect of returning more value as a going concern than it would have with the breakup and sale of the assets, the resolution process returns more value to shareholders and preserves value. Unlike commercial bankruptcy, however, there is currently no international bankruptcy court for sovereigns. Moreover, a sovereign cannot be forced to sell off assets.4 When the sovereign accepts that voluntary debt servicing is infeasible, a collective action problem arises. It is in the interests of all that debt be restructured expeditiously, in order for the domestic economy to resume functioning (and therefore be capable of larger debt-service payments). Longer crisis periods harm the sovereign’s domestic economy and international creditors. C. Need for Short-Term External Funding This leads immediately to the third preliminary issue: what needs to be done when it is clear that sovereign debt is unsustainable without some sort of 4 In many instances, however, policy packages designed to restore creditworthiness and growth to sovereigns do entail the privatization of government owned enterprises. -7-
  • 12. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 17 01/04/2013 808549 32 outside interaction. As stated earlier, the usual situation is one in which the fiscal deficit has led to rising sovereign debt for some time, and the debt ratio is high and rising, while the spreads demanded by creditors are becoming steeper and maturities at which they will lend at all shorter. Usually, too, economic growth has slowed, if not stalled, and real GDP may even be falling. In those circumstances, several things need to occur: (1) something has to be done to enable debt servicing to continue or there must be a restructuring of debt; (2) macroeconomic policy changes must be made to generate a greater primary surplus (or smaller primary deficit) 5 and this necessarily entails measures to raise revenues and/or reduce expenditures; and (3) a way must be found to enable prospects for economic activity and economic growth to improve over time. Debt service can be continued in these circumstances only with external support; the alternative is restructuring of the debt, or default. External support (usually from official agencies, led by the IMF) can enable a country to maintain its debt service.6 But without changing the expected future path of the 5 The primary surplus is defined as government expenditures minus all government revenues except interest payments on debt. Thus, the primary surplus is the amount that can be allocated to debt servicing. 6 In many instances, external support is also needed in order to enable resumption of normal commercial relations. This is especially true if the authorities have tried to maintain a fixed exchange rate (or let it depreciate too slowly relative to domestic inflation) and export earnings have weakened. -8-
  • 13. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 18 01/04/2013 808549 32 primary surplus, it can be, at best, a very temporary palliative. 7 That is why changes in macroeconomic policy are essential – not only to lower the fiscal deficit but to insure that, going forward, a sufficient primary surplus will be forthcoming to enable the country once again to finance its debt servicing obligations. When it is feasible for a country to be able to resume its debt servicing obligations after a period of reform, that course is almost always chosen by the country’s authorities. 8 When a country’s debt is truly unsustainable, short of really unforeseen positive changes (such as discovery of oil) debt must be restructured with a reduction in the net present value of creditors’ holdings. Even with policy reforms, the country’s capacity to service its debt would be insufficient to enable it fully to do so. Greece provides a case in point. Even with a shift from primary deficit to primary surplus and macroeconomic and structural reforms, it was inconceivable that Greece could grow sufficiently fast, and obtain a sufficient 7 The IMF cannot lend until there is a program in place to assure that the sovereign can resume voluntary debt-servicing within a reasonable period of time. The decision to undertake restructuring is the sovereign’s, but the alternatives are usually bleak enough that the sovereign seeks IMF support and undertakes economic policy changes. 8 For example, after the crisis in 1997, the Korean authorities undertook economic reforms supported by an IMF program. The Koreans maintained voluntary debt service but could not have done so without external assistance in the short run. -9-
  • 14. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 19 01/04/2013 808549 32 primary surplus. Without restructuring, the debt ratio would have soared well over 200 percent of GDP under optimistic assumptions; there was no way that economic growth could be fast enough, or the primary surplus increased quickly enough, to enable Greece voluntarily to continue servicing its debt. The debt ratio was clearly unsustainable. But the third requisite is equally important: without both policy changes and financial support, a country with unsustainable sovereign debt has very poor prospects. Sovereigns certainly cannot access private capital markets in the midst of a debt crisis; yet without some financing, maintaining even the existing level of economic activity is infeasible. But economic activity must prospectively increase or the debt ratio will rise as GDP falls. To date, the IMF has taken the lead role in sovereign debt crises. When invited, it has worked with country authorities to develop macroeconomic plans that will be consistent with a resumption of growth and the country’s ability within a few years to return to normal debt servicing and to access to private international capital markets. Often, it is the technical competence and experience of the IMF staff that contributes significantly to the development of a program of macroeconomic and other necessary policy changes that would enable a return to growth and solvency. - 10 -
  • 15. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 20 01/04/2013 808549 32 The IMF has a double function (although the two are highly interrelated). On one hand, the IMF supports the country’s authorities in devising a credible economic program, usually for two or three years. That, in turn, increases the credibility of the sovereign to the country’s creditors. On the other hand, the IMF lends to the sovereign to enable the financing of the program during its first two or three years as the policy changes take effect. Without financial support, the retrenchment in fiscal policy would be so sharp that economic activity would likely plummet, thereby reducing government revenues and thus harming any prospects for recovery. Without policy change, the financial support could not, in the longer term, offer the promise of improved economic performance and creditors would refuse to resume lending. D. Likely Negative Effects of Court Decision on Sovereign Debt Markets If sovereigns were required, as a condition to making payments on restructured debt, 9 to repay holdout creditors on a preferential basis once their level of economic activity and creditworthiness was reestablished, there would be 9 In the period prior to resolution of the issues involved in paying ratable debt, the markets in sovereign debt would also be affected by uncertainty and delays in repayments on debt which the sovereign would otherwise have serviced. Once the new ruling was in force, of course, that possibility would be priced into the spreads on sovereign debt. - 11 -
  • 16. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 21 01/04/2013 808549 32 several negative effects.10 These would include: (l) the increased reluctance of creditors to share in any restructuring and hence an increase in the likelihood and number of holdouts; (2) higher interest costs for all sovereign borrowers; (3) a reduction in capital inflows even for countries with sound macroeconomic policies; (4) increased delays by sovereigns before accepting the need for restructuring and thus higher costs to borrower and creditors alike; and (5) issues for the International Monetary Fund in supporting countries where policy reform could lead to a return to debt sustainability and voluntary debt-servicing if debt were restructured. These interrelated effects would feed cumulatively on each other but are discussed separately. The first effect is the increased reluctance of creditors to share in any restructuring. If existing creditors believed that the sovereign in question would be required to make ratable payments to them once the economy and creditworthiness had recovered, they would surely be more reluctant to agree voluntarily to a restructuring. The reason is self-evident: the expectation of 10 The premise of this sentence is virtually self-contradictory. Should holdout creditors be expected to be paid on a ratable basis with new borrowing by the sovereign, the reluctance to lend would increase greatly (and the incentive to hold out would increase). In these circumstances, it is unlikely that the sovereign could regain creditworthiness, and certainly the path to restored creditworthiness would be far more painful and time-consuming. - 12 -
  • 17. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 22 01/04/2013 808549 32 receiving greater payments at a later date would lead to a higher threshold for accepting a restructuring offer. Collective Action Clauses (CACs) were introduced into some sovereigns’ bond issues. Although some have argued that CACs reduce the likelihood of holdouts, that is by no means certain. CACs have been included in bond issues only in the past decade and there is insufficient experience with them to date to have empirical evidence with respect to their effects. No country with CACs in its bonds has been close to restructuring, so it is certainly not possible to reach a firm conclusion that CACs would prevent holdouts. But even with CACs, holders of particular issues could vote against restructuring (indeed, holdouts could buy just more than the percentage of the issue required to restructure). To address this concern, some CACs (five countries so far) have two parts: each bond issue contains provisions that (1) a specified percentage of holders of that issue voting in favor of restructuring binds all holders of that issue to an agreed-upon restructuring (as above); and (2) a different aggregate percentage of all bondholders is specified to bind holders across issues. Thus, if 75 percent of creditors’ approval was required to compel all holders of a particular issue to accept restructuring, a creditor or group of creditors holding 26 percent of the issue would be sufficient to block acceptance, unless, if there were aggregation, a different percentage were met to restructure across all - 13 -
  • 18. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 23 01/04/2013 808549 32 issues. So while CACs may preclude holdouts in some cases, it is not clear that they would do so in all. Moreover, CACs are not binding on other creditors (such as debt to commercial banks). As the likelihood of other holdouts increases, and the possibility of preferential treatment for holdouts later increases, the attractiveness of accepting a restructuring offer would diminish for bond holders. That there would be higher interest costs for all sovereign borrowers is also self-evident. Even countries with sound macroeconomic policies can run into difficulties because of factors possibly outside their control. As already seen, a sharp drop in the price of oil for an exporter, an abrupt shift in the terms of trade, and other factors can lead to difficulties. Would-be creditors, knowing this, can judge few sovereign bonds to be totally absent of any risk of the need for restructuring. If the likelihood of holdouts rises, and the difficulty and costs of restructuring increases, that would penalize all sovereigns attempting to access the international financial markets. This in turn, would result in the third negative consequence: even countries that were following sound economic policies would experience smaller capital inflows. The very fact that interest rates were higher would induce a reduction in net capital inflows. But, in addition, the penalties for reaching unsustainable debt would increase substantially as creditors’ knowledge that, if there were difficulties, access to international capital markets would be precluded - 14 -
  • 19. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 24 01/04/2013 808549 32 for a longer period of time than is currently probable. As already noted, there is always risk of adverse developments. At present, debt ratios of about 40 percent are deemed “safe” for most emerging markets. That ratio would almost certainly drop if preferential treatment of unrestructured debt were later required in cases of debt restructuring. It may also be noted that increasing the penalty for restructuring would surely make the authorities in countries with incipient debt-servicing difficulties even more reluctant to recognize their plight, and hence raise the costs to borrowers and creditors alike when restructuring finally did occur. That would likely delay the decision to attempt restructuring, thus raising the costs of the sovereign’s difficulties to creditor and debtor alike. The ratability requirement would also render the IMF’s role more problematic. As noted earlier, the IMF lends to countries with debt difficulties if the loan and policy reforms can be expected to result in an increased primary surplus sufficient for the country to be able to service its debts within a time frame of 3-5 years. But if there were holdouts, the time period in which the country could return to the international capital markets would be longer both because the costs of servicing new debt would increase (because of outstanding unrestructured ratable debt and higher interest costs to all borrowers). That, in turn, would reduce the likelihood that economic growth would resume, and the likely growth rate, - 15 -
  • 20. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 25 01/04/2013 808549 32 even after reforms, would still be lower (if positive at all). That, at a minimum, would make the needed policy reforms even more stringent, and would more likely result in a long period without IMF support and a return to creditworthiness. 11 E. Conclusions There are debt levels that are unsustainable. In those cases, restructuring of the debt on a timely basis with necessary policy reforms, and short-term financial support, is the best policy solution for a country and the world. Without an international regime for sovereign restructurings, creditors and the debtor have negotiated with each other, with the IMF playing a key role in advising on policy reforms, providing credibility to the sovereign, and extending the needed financing in the period during which the reforms take hold and creditworthiness will be reestablished. The problem of holdouts in voluntary debt restructurings has long been an issue. CACs were introduced in the hope that they would prevent the holdout problem. It is by no means certain that they are sufficient to enable restructurings, and the likelihood of problems would increase were holdouts 11 While a breakup of the firm is the ultimate resort in cases of private bankruptcies, the limit with unsustainable sovereign debt is political stability. When reforms are painful and the prospective benefits long delays, the political resistance to reforms and the likelihood of political instability increases. - 16 -
  • 21. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 26 01/04/2013 808549 32 assured (or be given reason to believe they would receive) preferential treatment later. Holdout creditors are therefore still a possible issue in circumstances where a country’s difficulties with debt-servicing difficulties are mounting. Ratability requirements would increase the attractiveness of holding-out, thus reducing the likelihood of achieving the needed threshold. Even if restructuring did occur, ratability requirements would certainly delay the point at which the country could reaccess the private international capital market, because the costs of any new borrowing would include payments under ratability to holdouts. That, in turn, would increase the stringency of the policy reforms needed in order for the IMF to support a reform program and restructuring. For sovereign debtors following sound macroeconomic policies, the costs of borrowing would rise and hence the rate of growth they could attain would be reduced. For countries where debt servicing difficulties were increasing, fear of the consequences of restructuring would be heightened, thus delaying the day when the necessary restructuring was undertaken and prolonging a period of low growth. All of these consequences would reduce prospects for growth in developing countries, increase the costs to creditors and debtors of debt resolution, - 17 -
  • 22. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 27 01/04/2013 808549 32 harm the international sovereign debt market, and reduce the ability of the private international capital market to enhance the growth of developing countries. CONCLUSION For the reasons stated above, the decisions of the district court on appeal should be reversed insofar as they impose a ratability requirement. Dated: New York, New York January 4, 2013 Respectfully submitted, DOAR RIECK KALEY & MACK Attorneys for Amicus Curiae Anne Krueger By: /s/ Edward Scarvalone EDWARD SCARVALONE 217 Broadway, Suite 707 New York, New York 10007 (212) 619-3730 - 18 -
  • 23. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 28 01/04/2013 808549 32 CERTIFICATE OF COMPLIANCE Pursuant to Rule 32(a)(7)(C) of the Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure, the undersigned counsel for Amicus Curiae hereby certifies that this brief complies with the type-volume limitation of Rule 32(a)(7)(B). As measured by the word processing system used to prepare the brief, there are 4110 words in this brief. /s/ Edward Scarvalone EDWARD SCARVALONE
  • 24. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 29 01/04/2013 808549 32 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE & CM/ECF FILING 12-105-cv(L) I hereby certify that I caused the foregoing Motion for Leave to File Amicus Curiae Brief to be served on all counsel via Electronic Mail generated by the Court’s electronic filing system (CM/ECF) with a Notice of Docket Activity pursuant to Local Appellate Rule 25.1: Theodore B. Olson William Francis Dahill Matthew McGill Wollmuth Maher & Deutsch LLP Jason J. Mendro 500 5th Avenue, Suite 1200 Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP New York, NY 10110 1050 Connecticut Avenue, NW 212-382-3300 Washington, DC 20036 Attorneys for Non-Party Appellant 202-955-8668 Fintech Advisory Inc. Robert A. Cohen Meir Feder Eric C. Kirsch Jones Day Charles Ian Poret 222 East 41st Street Dechert LLP New York, NY 10017 1095 Avenue of the Americas 212-326-7870 New York, NY 10036 Attorneys for Intervenor 212-698-3501 ICE Canyon LLC Attorneys for Plaintiff-Appellee NML Capital, Ltd. Christopher J. Clark Latham & Watkins LLP Gary S. Snitow 885 3rd Avenue Michael C. Spencer New York, NY 10022 Milberg LLP 212-906-1200 1 Pennsylvania Plaza, 48th Floor Attorneys for Intervenor Euro Bondholders New York, NY 10119 212-594-5300 Carmine D. Boccuzzi, Jr. Christopher P. Moore Attorneys for Plaintiffs-Appellees Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP Pablo Alberto Varela, Lila Ines Burgueno, Mirta 1 Liberty Plaza Susana Dieguez, Maria Evangelina Carballo, New York, NY 10006 Leandro Daniel Pomilio, Susana Aquerreta, Maria 212-225-2000 Elena Corral, Teresa Munoz De Corral, Teresa Munoz De Corral, Norma Elsa Lavorato, Carmen Jonathan I. Blackman Irma Lavorato, Cesar Ruben Vazquez, Norma Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP Haydee Gines, Marta Azucena Vazquez City Place House 55 Basinghall Street London, EC2V 5EH England +442076142200 Attorneys for Defendant-Appellant Republic of Argentina
  • 25. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 30 01/04/2013 808549 32 Roy T. Englert, Jr. Jeannette Anne Vargas Mark Stancil John Clopper Robbins, Russell, Englert, Orseck, Untereiner & Assistant U.S. Attorneys Sauber LLP United States Attorney's Office, 1801 K Street, NW, Suite 411 Southern District of New York Washington, DC 20006 86 Chambers Street, 3rd Floor 202-775-4500 New York, NY 10007 212-637-2678 Melissa Kelly Driscoll Attorneys for Amicus Curiae Menz Bonner Komar & Koenigsberg LLP United States of America 444 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10022 Joseph Emanuel Neuhaus 212-223-2100 Michael Jason Ushkow Sullivan & Cromwell LLP Edward A. Friedman 125 Broad Street Andrew W. Goldwater New York, NY 10004 Jessica Murzyn 212-558-4240 Emily A. Stubbs Attorneys for Amicus Curiae Friedman Kaplan Seiler & Adelman LLP The Clearing House Association L.L.C. 7 Times Square New York, NY 10036 Ronald Mann 212-833-1100 Columbia Law School 435 West 116th Street Kimberly A. Hamm New York, NY 10027 Barry R. Ostrager 212-854-1570 Tyler B. Robinson Amicus Curiae Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP 425 Lexington Avenue Kevin S. Reed New York, NY 10017 Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, LLP 212-455-2000 51 Madison Avenue, 22nd Floor New York, NY 10010 Jeffrey A. Lamken 212-849-7000 MoloLamken LLP Attorneys for Amicus Curiae Kenneth W. Dam 600 New Hampshire Avenue Washington, DC 20037 Richard Abbott Samp 202-556-2010 Washington Legal Foundation 2009 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Walter Rieman Washington, DC 22207 Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP 202-588-0302 1285 Avenue of the Americas Attorneys for Amicus Curiae New York, NY 10019 Washington Legal Foundation 212-373-3000 Attorneys for Plaintiffs-Appellees Aurelius Capital Master, Ltd., ACP Master, Ltd., Blue Angel Capital I LLC, Aurelius Opportunities Fund II, LLC and Amici Curiae Montreaux Partners L.P. and Wilton Capital 2
  • 26. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 31 01/04/2013 808549 32 Stephen D. Poss Joel M. Miller Robert D. Carroll Miller & Wrubel P.C. Goodwin Procter LLP 570 Lexington Avenue, 25th Floor Exchange Place, 53 State Street New York, NY 10022 Boston, MA 02109 212-336-3501 617-570-1000 Attorneys for Amici Curiae Attorneys for Plaintiff-Appellee Ricardo Ramirez Calvo, Luis A. Erize, Martin E. Olifant Fund, LTD. Paolantonio, Estela B. Sacristan and EM Ltd. Eric A. Schaffer Timothy Graham Nelson James C. Martin Marco Schnabl Colin E. Wrabley Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP Reed Smith LLP 4 Times Square Reed Smith Centre New York, NY 10036 225 5th Avenue, Suite 1200 212-735-2193 Pittsburgh, PA 15222 Attorneys for Movant 412-288-4202 Puente Hermanos Sociedad de Bolsa SA Attorneys for Non-Party Appellant The Bank of New York Mellon, as Indenture Trustee Jack L. Goldsmith, III Harvard Law School Sean F. O'Shea Areeda 233 Amanda Lynn Devereux 1563 Massachusetts Avenue Daniel M. Hibshoosh Cambridge, MA 02138 Michael E. Petrella 617-384-8159 O'Shea Partners LLP 521 5th Avenue Judd Grossman New York, NY 10175 Grossman LLP 212-682-4426 590 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor New York, NY 10022 David A. Barrett 646-770-7445 Steven I. Froot Attorneys for Movants Montreux Partners L.P. Nicholas A. Gravante, Jr. and Wilton Capital Boies, Schiller & Flexner LLP 575 Lexington Avenue Charles Alan Rothfeld New York, NY 10022 Paul Whitfield Hughes 212-446-2300 Mayer Brown LLP 1999 K Street, NW David Boies Washington, DC 20006 Boies, Schiller & Flexner LLP 202-263-3233 333 Main Street Attorneys for Movant Armonk, NY 10504 American Bankers Association 914-749-8200 Attorneys for Non-Party Appellant Exchange Bondholder Group 3
  • 27. Case: 12-105 Document: 700 Page: 32 01/04/2013 808549 32 I certify that an electronic copy was uploaded to the Court’s electronic filing system. Three hard copies of the foregoing Motion for Leave to File Amicus Curiae Brief were sent to the Clerk’s Office by hand delivery to: Clerk of Court United States Court of Appeals, Second Circuit United States Courthouse 500 Pearl Street, 3rd floor New York, New York 10007 (212) 857-8500 on this 4th day of January 2013. /s/ Samantha Collins Samantha Collins 4