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The purpose of this study is to explain the main causes of fertility change and its implications in India over the time period 1998 to 2016. To accomplish this, we first test the proximate determinants model to see if it is valid in the Indian context and then use it to estimate the contribution of each determinant to changes in India’s total fertility rate. The findings are intended to inform program managers, donors, and researchers about the link between contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) and fertility decline.

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The Demographic Transition Model, developed by Warren Thompson (1929), posits a shift from an agricultural, rural economy to an industrialized, urban society. A characteristic of this shift is an intermediate period of rapid population growth during which slowly declining fertility rates lag behind rapidly declining mortality rates. This presentation will explore the four stages of the Demographic Transition Model, the relationship between economic development and population growth, as well as the potential issues and shortfalls when applying this classic model to today’s developing countries.

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FAQs: Human Population Growth & Phases Question 1: What are the causes of the human population explosion? Answer 1: Prior to the 1800s, diseases like smallpox, diphtheria, measles, scarlet fever, bubonic plague, typhus, and cholera kept the human population in equilibrium. In the 1800s, scientists discovered how many of these diseases were spread and were able to develop counter measures. The discovery of penicillin and other antibiotic drugs in the 20th century resulted in a further decline in the human mortality rate. Improvements in sanitation and agriculture, notably the Green Revolution of the 1960s and 70s, further contributed to the population explosion. Question 2: Where is the most rapid growth in population taking place? What are some of the social and environmental consequences of this growth? Answer 2: The most rapid population growth is taking place in the developing countries. One result is that over a billion people live in households that have too little land to meet their basic needs for food and fuel. Overuse of available resources, notably wood for fuel, have caused erosion, desertification and decreased food production. Consequently, many rural residents have migrated to the cities, causing a dramatic rise in urban populations around the world. Many new arrivals have been forced to live in areas that lack basic sanitation. Other social consequences include an increased demand for social services, education, and jobs. Political instability often results when these demands are not met. Question 3: What is meant by demographic transition? Answer 3: The basic premise of demographic transition is the decline of birth and death rates as a society modernizes. The transition consists of the following four phases: 1. The first phase of the transition is characterized by high birth and high death rates. 2. The second phase is characterized by a declining death rate (usually due to improvements in medical care) but no corresponding decline in the birth rate. This is a phase of accelerating population growth. 3. The third phase is characterized by declining fertility rates. 4. The fourth and final phase is reached when the birth rates and death rates reach relative equilibrium. At this point, the population is stable. The developed nations are considered to be in phase four, while the developing nations are in phases two and three. Question 4: Must a society modernize for the fertility rate to stabilize? Answer 4: This question has been debated for almost 200 years. One school of thought holds that countries must adopt policies restricting family size or make birth control readily available. A second school of thought holds that if a country concentrates its efforts on development, then the birth rate will naturally decline as it has in the developed nations. Question 5: Why do families in developing nations tend to be much larger than families in de ...

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