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Behavior-Based Predictive Models
1.
2.
Behavior-Based Predictive Models
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Data Summary For
outcome, Variance = 4 times Mean
12.
EDA on Outcome
1. 80% Cardholders have 0 delinquency. 2. Large dispersion with long tail
13.
14.
15.
NB Output
16.
NB Portfolio Prediction
17.
How to Score
18.
NB Account Prediction
19.
20.
21.
Hurdle Output Drivers
for Presence of Delinquency Drivers for Severity of Delinquency
22.
Hurdle Portfolio Prediction
Un-normalized Truncated Poisson Distribution Composite Distribution
23.
Hurdle Segmentation 1.
Segmentation Model: Logistic Model separates BLUE from RED 2. Severity Model: Truncated Poisson predicts severity of RED
24.
Hurdle Account Prediction
25.
26.
27.
ZIP Output Drivers
for Existence of Risk Drivers for Severity of Risk
28.
ZIP Portfolio Prediction
Un-normalized Poisson Distribution Composite Distribution
29.
ZIP Segmentation Same
outcome but different risk implications 1. Blue (72%): Established, free from financial risk 2. Red (8%): Vulnerable, might deteriorate in bad time
30.
ZIP Account Prediction
31.
32.
33.
LCP Output Drivers
for Low Risk Drivers for High Risk
34.
LCP Portfolio Prediction
Poisson Distribution of High Mean Composite Distribution Poisson Distribution of Low Mean
35.
LCP Segmentation
36.
LCP Account Prediction
~ 5% benefit at high-risk zone
37.
Parameter Comparison In
Hurdle / ZIP, 1 st set of BETAs explain why delinquent and 2 nd set explain how many delinquencies will be.
38.
39.
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