1. Page 1 of 18
Discounted Cash Flow Model
2006 Model Exhibit Index
EXHIBIT TITLE
1 - Key Inputs
2 - Operating Leases
3 - Employee Options
4 - Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
5 - Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
6 - Free Cash Flow to the Firm Valuation (FCFF Valuation)
7 - Historic Growth Matrix
8 - Fundamental Growth in Earnings Before Interest & Tax (EBIT)
9 - Fundamental Growth in Net Income
ITEM
A - Balance Sheet
B - Income Statement
B1 - Income Statement - TTM
C - Statement of Cash Flows
D - Financial Ratios
APPENDIX
I - Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
II - Positive Contingency Valuation Scenario
III - Negative Contingency Valuation Scenario
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
2. Page 2 of 18
Ex. 1
Key Inputs for Valuation:
Valuation Date 12/4/2006
Stock Price 68.26$
Shares Outstanding (000) 91,045
MV of Equity (000) $6,214,730
MV of Debt (000) $0
Beta 1.2 regression beta
Market Risk Premium 5.00%
Risk-free Rate 4.61% 10 yr. t-bill
Cost of Debt 5.35%
Marginal Tax Rate 39.69%
Valuation Price (FCFF) $66.87
Key Inputs for Valuation Model
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
3. Page 3 of 18
Ex. 2
Inputs:
Cost of Debt 5.35%
Round Annuity Length? (1=yes, 0=no) 0
Operating Lease Commitments (in thousands) PV of Commitments
2006 93,837$ * 91,423$
2007 187,397$ 173,305$
2008 178,595$ 156,777$
2009 169,856$ 141,534$
2010 155,670$ 123,126$
>2010 538,635$ 383,079$
1,069,245$
Estimation:
Avg from 2007-2010 172,880$
Annuity yrs 3.12
PV of Lease Pmts 1,069,245$
140,400.64$ St.Line Depreciation over 7.62 (4.5 + 3.12) years
* Commitments due for second half of 2006 (calculated by dividing full year 2006 payments by 2)
Operating Lease Commitments
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
4. Page 4 of 18
Ex. 3
Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model
Inputs: Inputs (with dilution effects):
Stock Price (S) $68.26 Stock Price (S) $68.26
Strike Price (X) $37.18 Strike Price (X) $37.18
Volatility () 47.00 % Volatility () 47.00 %
Risk-free Rate 4.58 % Risk-free Rate 4.58 %
Time to expiration (T) 4.6 yrs Time to expiration (T) 4.6 yrs
Dividend Yield 1.00 % Dividend Yield 1.00 %
# of Options 9,060,831 # Shares Outstanding 88,080,000
# of Options 9,060,831
Output:
D1 1.27009 Output:
D2 0.26206 Adjusted S (dilution) $65.43
N(D1) 0.89797 D1 1.22814
N(D2) 0.60336 D2 0.22010
Call Price $40.36855 N(D1) 0.89030
Put Price $5.29443 N(D2) 0.58710
Value of Call Options $365,772,646 Call Price $37.95452
Put Price $5.58005
Value of Call Options $343,899,458
After-tax Value $207,397,343
Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model (with
Employee Options at 12/04/2006
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
5. Page 5 of 18
Ex. 4
Inputs:
Beta 1.20
Risk-Free Rate 4.61%
Market Risk Premium 5.00%
Market Value of Debt 0 thousand
PV of Leases $1,069,245 thousand
Adjusted MV of Debt $1,069,245 thousand
MV of Equity $6,214,730 thousand
MV of Employee Options $343,899 thousand
Adjusted MV of Equity $6,558,630 thousand
Cost of Debt 5.35%
Marginal Tax Rate 39.69%
Estimates:
Debt Weight 14.02%
Equity Weight 85.98%
Cost of Equity 10.61%
WACC 9.58%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
7. Page 7 of 18
Ex. 6
Note:
Three stage model with three years of high growth, followed by three years of intermediate growth, followed by stable growth in perpetuity
Inputs (in thousands):
Adjusted Operating Income (yr 0) 626,981
Tax Rate during High Growth 38.20%
Tax Rate during Stable Growth 39.69%
Growth Rate in High Growth 14.00%
Reinvestment Rate in High Growth 49.68% Implied ROC 28.2%
Growth Rate in Mid Growth 8.00%
Reinvestment Rate in Mid Growth 49.68% Implied ROC 16.1%
Growth Rate in Stable Growth 4.50%
ROC in Stable Growth 14.32% industry average
Req Reinvestment Rate in Stable Growth 31.42%
Cost of Capital 9.58%
MV of Debt 1,069,244.57
MV of Existing Options 343,899.46
Shares Outstanding 91,045
Cash Flow Forecasts:
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
EBIT 626,981 714,758 814,824 928,899 1,003,211 1,083,468 1,170,146 1,222,802
EBIT(1-T) 387,468 441,714 503,554 574,051 619,975 669,573 723,139 737,442
Reinvestment 192,505 219,456 250,179 285,205 308,021 332,663 359,276 231,738
FCFF 194,963 222,258 253,374 288,846 311,954 336,911 363,863 505,704
PV of FCFF - 202,836 211,028 219,550 216,394 213,283 210,218
Valuation Estimates:
PV of High Growth FCFF 1,273,308
Terminal Value 9,964,602
PV of Terminal Value 5,756,930
Total Value of Operating Cash Flows 7,030,239
Add Cash and Marketable Securities 334,995
Add Nonconsolidated Holdings in Other Firms -
Total Firm Value 7,365,234
Subtract Debt 1,069,245
Subtract Minority Interests -
Subtract After-Tax Value of Existing Options 207,397
Equity Value 6,088,592
Equity Value Per Share 66.87$
52-week Price Target 73.28$
Market Price as of 12/4/06 68.26$
FCFF Valuation as of 12/04/2006
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.