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Economic and Fiscal Metrics 
www.pewtrusts.org 
Bob Zahradnik 
Thursday, November 6, 2014
www.pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health 
70% 
75% 
80% 
85% 
90% 
95% 
100% 
105% 
110% 
115% 
Denver 
Los Angeles 
Chicago 
Houst...
Property Tax Collections in Most Cities Did Not Begin 
to Decline until After the Great Recession Ended 
Property tax year...
Intergovernmental Revenue Peaked 
in 2010 
Year-over-year percent change: average across 30 cities, 2008-12 
11 Cities wit...
Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis 
Key indicators of fiscal health 
REVENUE SPENDING ECONOMY AND PEOPLE LONG-TERM COSTS...
State Tax Revenue is Slow to Recover 
From Recession 
Inflation-adjusted, 1Q 2014 
0 
-5 
-10 
-15 
2006 2007 2008 2009 20...
State Tax Revenue Recovers Unevenly 
Inflation-adjusted, 1Q 2014 
Below -15% 
-15% to 0% 
0% to 15% 
Above 15% 
www.pewtru...
Days that States Could Run on Reserve Funds 
FY2014 (estimated) 
R E C E S S I O N R E C E S S I O N 
FY 2001 FY 2003 FY 2...
For additional questions or information, please contact: 
Bob Zahradnik: 
rzahradnik@pewtrusts.org 
pewtrusts.org/fiscal-h...
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Economic and Fiscal Metrics by Robert Zahradnik, Pew Charitable Trusts

Panel discussion on how to measure, benchmark and monitor progress on key indicators of economic success in your city or region, and use data to move the needle on city progress. For more info, visit ceosforcitiesnationalmeeting.org.

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Economic and Fiscal Metrics by Robert Zahradnik, Pew Charitable Trusts

  1. 1. Economic and Fiscal Metrics www.pewtrusts.org Bob Zahradnik Thursday, November 6, 2014
  2. 2. www.pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% Denver Los Angeles Chicago Houston Dallas Baltimore Pittsburgh Philadelphia San Diego Kansas City Tampa Miami Cleveland Orlando Phoenix Sacramento Las Vegas Riverside Detroit Washington, D.C. San Francisco Portland Seattle Boston San Antonio St. Louis Minneapolis Cincinnati New York Atlanta 2012 revenue as percent of previous peak, by city Most Cities had not Recovered by 2012
  3. 3. Property Tax Collections in Most Cities Did Not Begin to Decline until After the Great Recession Ended Property tax year-over-year percent change: average across 30 cities, 2008-12 8 Cities with Losses 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Note: Shaded area represents the period of the Great Recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research www.pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health 9 Cities with Losses 18 Cities with Losses 18 Cities with Losses 24 Cities with Losses -6% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  4. 4. Intergovernmental Revenue Peaked in 2010 Year-over-year percent change: average across 30 cities, 2008-12 11 Cities with Losses 10 Cities with 15 Cities with Losses 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Note: Shaded area represents the period of the Great Recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research www.pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health Losses 17 Cities with Losses 22 Cities with Losses -6% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  5. 5. Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis Key indicators of fiscal health REVENUE SPENDING ECONOMY AND PEOPLE LONG-TERM COSTS FISCAL POLICY Tax Revenue Federal Share of State Revenue Change in State Spending www.pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health Employment to Population Ratio Debt and Unfunded Retirement Costs Reserves and Balances
  6. 6. State Tax Revenue is Slow to Recover From Recession Inflation-adjusted, 1Q 2014 0 -5 -10 -15 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 www.pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health 50 states R E C E S S I O N Percent -13.0% 2.2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  7. 7. State Tax Revenue Recovers Unevenly Inflation-adjusted, 1Q 2014 Below -15% -15% to 0% 0% to 15% Above 15% www.pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health
  8. 8. Days that States Could Run on Reserve Funds FY2014 (estimated) R E C E S S I O N R E C E S S I O N FY 2001 FY 2003 FY 2005 FY 2007 FY 2009 FY 2011 FY 2013 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 www.pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health 50-state median FY2014: 23.2 days Days FY2007: 41.3 days FY2013: 32.6 days
  9. 9. For additional questions or information, please contact: Bob Zahradnik: rzahradnik@pewtrusts.org pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health pewtrusts.org/cities www.pewtrusts.org/fiscal-health

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