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Connect, Innovate and Inspire.
Seeking the shift and
owning new consumers
All things Culinary
Agenda
• Market update
• Foodservice Trends
• Who after your Business
• What can you do
• Key driver of Sales for Foodservice
• Conclusion
Beef Exports from grain-fed countries are
projected to be down 10% in 2015.
-6%
-14%
-1%
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
US Australia Canada
MillionTonnesCWE Beef Exports 2011-2015
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p
Source: USDA, FAS, PSD
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015f
MillionTonnes
Global Beef Production
Source: USDA, FAS
Domestic production is down 4% YTD in 2015.
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
millionpounds Domestic Beef Production
2014 2015 Projection
Source: Canfax, CBGA
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
DemandIndex(2000=100)
Canadian Retail Beef Demand Index
Index 2000=100
Source: Statistics Canada, CanFax, US Beef Demand Study Group
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
InternationalBeef Demand
(Index2000=100)
Source: Cranfield 2012, CanFaxResearch
Domestic retail and international demand
continues to climb in 2015
$180
$200
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
$320
$340
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cdn$percwt
Canadian AAA Cutout Values
2014 2015 3 yr avg
Source: Canfax Research,AAFC
Record high wholesale beef prices are
expected to remain strong through 2015.
Some cuts have dropped their prices in Q3
2015 (e.g. 50% Trim, Bone-in Shortrib).
$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12
Fresh 50% Lean Trimmings
Bone-in Shortrib
Fresh 65% Lean Trimmings
Briskets 120
Bone-in Chuck Shortrib
Top Butt 13dn
Inside Skirt
Boneless Round
Flank Steak
Outside Skirt
Boxed Beef Prices - Selected Cuts, Q3 2015
Source: Canfax Research,AAFC
LargestY/YchgSmallestY/Ychg
King of grocery, centre of the plate.
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
J F M A M J J A S O N D
$/kg
Retail Beef Prices
2013 2014 2015
Source: Statistics Canada
Market mover…
• Old projection versus reality
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
APR '07 APR '08 APR '09 APR '10 APR '11 APR '12 APR '13 APR '14 APR '15
Consumer confidence
is higher in 2015
1
© 2015 Technomic Inc.
Apr ’15
94.7
12
Few consumers plan
to dine out more in 2015
More than in
2014
14%
About the
same
68%
Less than in
2014
18%
In 2015, do you think you will eat at restaurants
more, less or the same amount as you did in 2014?
13
…but twice as many plan to spend more
In 2015, do you think you will spend more, less or
the same amount at restaurants as you did in 2014?
Spend more
28%
Spend about
the same
53%
Spend less
19%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Feb '07 Feb '08 Feb '09 Feb '10 Feb '11 Feb '12 Feb '13 Feb '14 Feb '15
Foodservice sales slowly
increasing
% Change vs. PriorYear (12-Month Moving Average)
1
© 2015 Technomic Inc.
15
restaurant
retailer
?
OR
16
Lines continue to blur as options grow
Meal kits Home delivery Fast food Fast casual
Casual dining Delivery RMS Grab-n-go
Food trucks Vending Snack boxes
Meal kits Home delivery Fast food Fast casual
Casual dining Delivery RMS Grab-n-go
Food trucks Vending Snack boxes
Retail Growth rate is
approaching
that of restaurants
Retail: 3.3%
Restaurants: 4.0%2014 growth:
17
Consumers’ consideration set expands
© 2015 Technomic Inc.
18
Many retailers have upgraded
and expanded Ready Meals
Solution programs
$5.9 billion and GROWING
© 2015 Technomic Inc.
Identify and respond to
Foodservice vs retail limitations
20
Who’s winning?
Restaurant
Quick service Supermarkets
Craveable items
Atmosphere
Overall value
Better-for-you options
Service speed
Convenience
Ingredient quality
© 2015 Technomic Inc.
© 2015 Technomic Inc.
endless choice and
customization
21
22
23
24
Restaurant
Here’s what YOU
can do about it
Acknowledge the
threat for Fresh,
With a story…
Beef is a single ingredient, clean label dense protein option
raise with pride in Canada
Beyond “fresh,”
focus
on…
Unique
Signature
Craveable
26
27
authenticity
Build your differentiation on
28
© 2015 Technomic Inc.
HANDCRAFTED
BURGERS
29
© 2015 Technomic Inc.
ACCENT ON
FRESHNESS
30
© 2015 Technomic Inc.
FARM-FRESH
FOODS
• Strong growth and an unique upsell strategy
• Review new beef cut concept with your
Sales Reps… Promote innovative cuts
• Review your portion size for menu mix
• Maintain premium local angle
Burger and Steak offer:
Other option for growth:

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General market info

  • 1. Connect, Innovate and Inspire. Seeking the shift and owning new consumers All things Culinary
  • 2. Agenda • Market update • Foodservice Trends • Who after your Business • What can you do • Key driver of Sales for Foodservice • Conclusion
  • 3. Beef Exports from grain-fed countries are projected to be down 10% in 2015. -6% -14% -1% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 US Australia Canada MillionTonnesCWE Beef Exports 2011-2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p Source: USDA, FAS, PSD 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f MillionTonnes Global Beef Production Source: USDA, FAS
  • 4. Domestic production is down 4% YTD in 2015. 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec millionpounds Domestic Beef Production 2014 2015 Projection Source: Canfax, CBGA
  • 5. 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 DemandIndex(2000=100) Canadian Retail Beef Demand Index Index 2000=100 Source: Statistics Canada, CanFax, US Beef Demand Study Group 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 InternationalBeef Demand (Index2000=100) Source: Cranfield 2012, CanFaxResearch Domestic retail and international demand continues to climb in 2015
  • 6. $180 $200 $220 $240 $260 $280 $300 $320 $340 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cdn$percwt Canadian AAA Cutout Values 2014 2015 3 yr avg Source: Canfax Research,AAFC Record high wholesale beef prices are expected to remain strong through 2015.
  • 7. Some cuts have dropped their prices in Q3 2015 (e.g. 50% Trim, Bone-in Shortrib). $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 Fresh 50% Lean Trimmings Bone-in Shortrib Fresh 65% Lean Trimmings Briskets 120 Bone-in Chuck Shortrib Top Butt 13dn Inside Skirt Boneless Round Flank Steak Outside Skirt Boxed Beef Prices - Selected Cuts, Q3 2015 Source: Canfax Research,AAFC LargestY/YchgSmallestY/Ychg
  • 8. King of grocery, centre of the plate. $12 $13 $14 $15 $16 $17 $18 $19 $20 $21 J F M A M J J A S O N D $/kg Retail Beef Prices 2013 2014 2015 Source: Statistics Canada
  • 9.
  • 10. Market mover… • Old projection versus reality
  • 11. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 APR '07 APR '08 APR '09 APR '10 APR '11 APR '12 APR '13 APR '14 APR '15 Consumer confidence is higher in 2015 1 © 2015 Technomic Inc. Apr ’15 94.7
  • 12. 12 Few consumers plan to dine out more in 2015 More than in 2014 14% About the same 68% Less than in 2014 18% In 2015, do you think you will eat at restaurants more, less or the same amount as you did in 2014?
  • 13. 13 …but twice as many plan to spend more In 2015, do you think you will spend more, less or the same amount at restaurants as you did in 2014? Spend more 28% Spend about the same 53% Spend less 19%
  • 14. -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Feb '07 Feb '08 Feb '09 Feb '10 Feb '11 Feb '12 Feb '13 Feb '14 Feb '15 Foodservice sales slowly increasing % Change vs. PriorYear (12-Month Moving Average) 1
  • 15. © 2015 Technomic Inc. 15 restaurant retailer ? OR
  • 16. 16 Lines continue to blur as options grow Meal kits Home delivery Fast food Fast casual Casual dining Delivery RMS Grab-n-go Food trucks Vending Snack boxes
  • 17. Meal kits Home delivery Fast food Fast casual Casual dining Delivery RMS Grab-n-go Food trucks Vending Snack boxes Retail Growth rate is approaching that of restaurants Retail: 3.3% Restaurants: 4.0%2014 growth: 17 Consumers’ consideration set expands © 2015 Technomic Inc.
  • 18. 18 Many retailers have upgraded and expanded Ready Meals Solution programs $5.9 billion and GROWING © 2015 Technomic Inc.
  • 19. Identify and respond to Foodservice vs retail limitations
  • 20. 20 Who’s winning? Restaurant Quick service Supermarkets Craveable items Atmosphere Overall value Better-for-you options Service speed Convenience Ingredient quality © 2015 Technomic Inc.
  • 21. © 2015 Technomic Inc. endless choice and customization 21
  • 22. 22
  • 23. 23
  • 25. Acknowledge the threat for Fresh, With a story… Beef is a single ingredient, clean label dense protein option raise with pride in Canada
  • 28. 28 © 2015 Technomic Inc. HANDCRAFTED BURGERS
  • 29. 29 © 2015 Technomic Inc. ACCENT ON FRESHNESS
  • 30. 30 © 2015 Technomic Inc. FARM-FRESH FOODS
  • 31. • Strong growth and an unique upsell strategy • Review new beef cut concept with your Sales Reps… Promote innovative cuts • Review your portion size for menu mix • Maintain premium local angle Burger and Steak offer: Other option for growth: