2. How to succeed in
your graduate study
By
Khalid Abdul Hamid, PhD
3. Be prepared
Somebody wants to shoot you down
Prepare, prepare and prepare
Psychologically (Mind and Heart - Attitude)
Physically (Skill and knowledge, family, etc.)
Examine things you will be facing (new environments, new
ways of doing things)
Make all the checklist you need to execute (prepare a file,
contingencies etc.)
Mind-set change
5. Curiosity the Basic Ingredient
for Industrial Statistics
Khalid.hamid@treasury.gov.my
6. Definition
Curiosity (from Latin curiosus "careful, diligent, curious," akin to cura "care") is a
quality related to inquisitive thinking such as exploration, investigation, and ...
cu·ri·os·i·ty (ky r - s -t ). n. pl. cu·ri·os·i·ties. 1. A desire to know or learn. 2. A
desire to know about people or things that do not concern one; nosiness. 3. An
object ...
8. 1. Commodity Production Statistics
In the area of industrial statistics, the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) is engaged in the
collection and dissemination of data on the production of major industrial commodities, both in
physical quantities and in monetary value. Data are mainly collected through a questionnaire sent
yearly to national statistical offices. The commodities are classified according to the UN List of
Industrial Products. The data collected are published in three major publications: the Industrial
Commodity Statistics Yearbook, the United Nations Statistics Yearbook, and the Monthly Bulletin of
Statistics.
Data on Industrial Commodity Production can be obtained in the following ways:
The 2008 Industrial Commodity Statistics Yearbook (2 volumes) in hardcover and PDF format.
(order here)
The complete dataset of Industrial Commodity Statistics, currently covering the period 1950-2008
on CD-ROM. (Contact subscriptions@un.org to order.)
On-line through the UN Data portal.
Industry Statistics
9. Continued….
In dealing with difficulties later in life, protecting young people from failure early in
life would seem to have another negative effect. And this is in discouraging them
from embarking on any endeavor where there is even the slightest risk of not
succeeding.
This is reflected in the fields that the students of wealthy families are choosing to go
into in college, and also in their career choices. As Tough notes “there are fewer
entrepreneurs graduating from our best colleges these days; fewer iconoclasts; fewer
artists; fewer everything, in fact, except investment bankers and management
consultants” (loc. 3046).
And the numbers bear out what Tough is saying. Indeed, consider that “recently, the
New York Times reported that 36 percent of new Princeton graduates in 2010 took
jobs in the finance industry, and another 26 percent took jobs in a category that…
features, prominently, management consulting…—and this [was] after the near-
collapse of the finance industry in 2008. (Before the economic crisis, about three-
quarters of Princeton graduates went into one of those two careers.)” (loc. 3049)
12. Content
Introduction to I-O Tables
Table versus model
Extracting structure information
Aggregating
Case studies using I-O model:
Food and Energy;
Wage and Productivity; and
Subsidy Rationalization
13. General background
100 i-o users, 100 different programs
spreadsheets:
easy, but not flexible
matrix programming (Gauss, Matlab):
flexible, but not easy
input-output software:
mainly i-o construction, little i-o modelling
14. Purpose: easy and flexible
easy to use, Windows integrated
data input & model output,
exchangeable with other software
usable for all types of i-o tables:
interregional, but also single-region and national
all standard I-O analyses covered:
descriptive statistics, linkage analyses
additional variables, flexible model extensions
multiplier and impact analyses
15. Basic characteristics
no table construction-use provided model
no fancy stuff you can do elsewhere (graphics)
Table files (.tbl) = only the basic I-O table
Model files (.mdl) = table + all extra information you add yourself to build your
model
generalized Dimensions, no size restrictions
generalized endogenous Variables, no feedback
generalized endogenous Relations, with feedback
16. Install IRIOS
http://www.regroningen.nl/irios.html
Run setup
Download lab data:
http://www.regroningen.nl/lab.zip
Unzip lab.zip to your local working directory (c:lab)
Start IRIOS
New/Model and Open/Table
Browse to c:lab and choose “Netherlands.tbl”
17. Edit table
Aggregation
Distribute margins (later)
Aggregation possible over all 5 dimensions
Aggregate manufacturing and public utility into “Man_Pub”
Press Cancel when not saving the aggregated table
Aggregate Wages, Social insurance and Other Income into “Value Added”
Aggregating regions: Later
Note: there is no undo for aggregation!
18. Larger tables
New/Model and Open/Table
Choose “Asia 2000.tbl”
Aggregate 76 sectors into
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
Aggregate imports from Hongkong, EU and ROW into “total
imports”
19. Descriptive statistics
New/Model and Open/Table
Browse to c:lab and choose “Netherlands.tbl”
Analysis I-O table
Sector structure
Production: which is the largest sector?
Wages: which sector generates most of the wages?
Exports
All together
20. Descriptive statistics
Analysis I-O table
Output/Sales structure
Choose Construction
Calculate shares unaggregated: which is the largest output coefficient?
Choose all sectors
Calculate shares aggregated: intermediate versus final output
Which industry is the most orientated to intermediate sales?
21. Descriptive statistics
Analysis I-O table
Input/Cost structure
Choose Manufacturing
Calculate shares unaggregated: which is the largest input coefficient?
Choose all sectors
Calculate shares unaggregated: which sector has the highest input coefficient for construction?
Calculate shares aggregated: intermediate versus primary inputs
Which industry has the highest intermediate input coefficient?
23. Case study 1:
Food and Energy
Published papers/journals/presentation:
1. Energy Price Impact on East Asian Region’s Food and Non-food Industry. Presented by Khalid
Abdul Hamid at The International Conference on Economics and Finance, Kathmandu, Nepal, 20 – 22
April 2012.
2. Effect of Energy Price increase on East Asian Region’s Food Industries’ interconnectedness and
Integration. Chapter 10 in Deepening Energy Market Integration for ERIA by Khalid, A.H., Zakariah,
A.R. and R. Zarina R.M. (August 2011)
3. Food and Energy MACFEA 15th National Seminar, UITM Hotel, Shah Alam Selangor, 19—20 July
2011
4. Effect of Higher Oil Price to Consumer Food Products in Malaysia. Khalid, A.H., Zakariah A.R
and Mohd Khairul Hisyam H.. Article due for publication at the MJES, Malaysian Economic
Association, University of Malaya
5. The Effect of Higher oil Price on Consumer Food Products in Malaysia. Khalid, A.H., Zakariah,
A.R. (Presented at the International Economic Conference, Anadolu University, Eskisehir, Turkey
.Vol. 1, T2D Economics of Oil
6. Effect of Energy Price Increase on East Asian Region’s Food Industries:
with special reference to Malaysian Experience. By Khalid, A.H. NEOC, Nov 23, 2011.
24. Case study 1:
Effect of Energy Price
Increase on East Asian
Region’s Food Industries:
with special reference to Malaysian Experience
26. Economic Impact
1. Estimation of an economy’s aggregate impact shows the
potential benefits of various forms of growth. As such, in times of
rising oil price it shows susceptibility of the economy in question.
As West (1999) explained it not the size that is important but
magnitude because a small multiplier can correspond to a large
total impact and a large multiplier to a small impact in an
economy depending on the size of initial changes in the final
demand.
2. The word impact may seem ambiguous since it can be used in
various contexts such as effect, result, incidence, significance,
contribution, consequence and importance. In the pursuit of
measuring the energy price impact, the primary focus will be on
output changes in the oil and non-oil industries, sales patterns,
new commitments or investments, alterations of economic
commitment or assessing current economic significance of
established industries. All these can be traced by the total impact
analysis via final demand, multipliers, linkages and the extended
Leontief‟s price system.
27. Sectoral Inflationary Rates
The following Table 4.25 presents the share of each sector in household expenditure or total private
consumption (C), the share of each sector in total gross output (Q), and the share of each sector in
GDP (VA) in the 41 x 41 sector Malaysian I-O Table 2000 and 1978. This is achieved by
transforming each share into weights and multiplying by each sector’s price, output or VA share, i.e.
C = P1 (C1/C*) + P2 (C2/C*) +……. + P41 (C41/C*) = ΣPC
Q = P1(X1/X*) + P2 (X2/X*) +……. + P41 (X41/X*) = ΣPX
VA= P1(VA1/VA*) + P2 (VA2/VA*) +…….+ P41 (VA41/VA*) = ΣPVA
29. Aggregate Household Expenditure, Gross Output and GDP
Average for year Consumption (PC) Output (PQ) Value Added (PVA)
Average
Overall
relative
measure
1978 0.04 0.03 0.65 -
2000 0.08 0.01 1.30 -
Relative measure 0.47 2.12 0.50 0.52
The following table shows the overall impact of price perturbations on the household expenditure
(PC), the cost of output (PQ) and GDP price deflator (PVA). These inflationary costs cuts across
the aggregated CPI, output and value added of the price system in aggregate form as shown
below.
30. Estimating the retail price of food
The price-spread model is a short-run model which classifies 10-food-industries to estimate the impact of changes
of input prices onto consumer food product prices. It assume that consumers do not respond to retail price
changes, whilst food producers do not alter input proportions despite changes in relative input prices.
Furthermore, output of each industry serves only as a final consumer of food products. In our price-spread model,
we compute 10 components of food industries in each EA country as categorized in their respective CPI to
estimate price changes on retail price. Each firm of the respective 10 final food industries produces a single
product by combining a farm commodity with a set of non-farm inputs in fixed proportions.
In this model, consumer demand is fixed for all levels of retail price. These simplifying assumptions reduce the
computation of a food price estimate to an evaluation of an accounting-type formula. This formula states that the
percentage change in the retail price is a weighted sum of the percentage changes in input prices, with cost shares
(e.g. from the Malaysian I-O tables, 2005) serving as weights:
PR* = PF*SF + Px*Sx .…. (5)
where SF and Sx represent the cost shares of food and non-food inputs, respectively, and where PR*, PF*, Px
*
denote the percentage changes in the retail, the food price, and the aggregate non-food price, respectively. The
variable Px is the food marketing cost index (FMCI), or the average price of the aggregate non-food input. The
above formula asserts that a 1-per cent increase in the FMCI leads to a Sx-per cent increase in the retail price.
31. Cont….
Energy is one of several non-food inputs used to produce food, and the price of energy is approximately about one-twelfth of non-food
input prices used to construct the FMCI (i.e. Px). Suppose that food is produced using a single food input and a single aggregate or
representative non-food input, with a price equal to the FMCI. If this single non-food input is produced from individual non-food inputs
in fixed proportions, the retail price formula given by equation (5) above can be extended directly to:
PR* = PF*SF + Px*Sx = PF*SF + (PE*SE + Pi*Si) Sx ……. (6)
where SE and Si are the non-food cost shares of energy and the ith non-food input, and PE
* and Pi* are the percentage changes in
energy and the other non-farm input prices, respectively. The sum in the parentheses of equation (6) represents the percentage
change in the FMCI (i.e., Px
*), and the shares of each term serve as weights on the individual input prices. Equation (6) states that the
percentage increase in the consumer price of food is the weighted sum of the percentage change in the price of the food ingredient,
the energy price, and the other non-food input prices comprising the FMCI. At this point, it is convenient to describe the main
difference between the price-spread and intensity models. The term, PE*SE in equation (6) is referred to as the direct effect because it
denotes the energy cost increase incurred by producers of the aggregate marketing input.
cPi*Si , …… (7)
The second term is referred to as the indirect effect because it measures the effect of a rising energy price on the costs of other inputs
used in producing the marketing input. For example, because energy is used to produce food packaging, the cost of packaging will
rise with higher energy prices. In a typical price-spread model simulation, the indirect effects would be zero since the price of energy
does not affect the price of other marketing inputs. In a typical I-O model simulation, a change in the price of crude oil could affect the
price of all other inputs used in the production of food.
Since we wish to impose the same exogenous change on the two models, we include the indirect effects of energy increase in both
model simulations. In particular, we used the I-O model’s prediction of the percentage change in energy intensity whilst also using the
FMCI in the price-spread model to estimate the effect of a doubling of the crude oil price. The price-spread model simulation suggests
that a doubling of the price of crude oil leads to a 1.119 per cent increase in FMCI in 2005. This predicted increase in the FMCI is an
average of total intensity of two important energy sectors’ total impact.
This assumption simplifies that each industry’s output serves only at that respective final consumer of food product. Thus, we can
examine each of the 10 components of food industry’s retail price changes from an increase in energy price.
The weights are the derived from averaging the inverse matrix of two main energy-related sectors’.
Sx PF*SF is the direct effect of the energy price increase on the average cost of producing the food product.
33. Sectoral food price effects
Relative prices across sectors of the EA economy performed
differently. Increased in the energy price generates more costs
in terms of generating value added and importing input in
producing food and non-food output. This has consequences on
policies concerning interconnectedness of energy inputs along
food and non-food corridors.
Food productions in developed EA countries are lower than
average total effect, nevertheless, these sectors generate
greater value added. Thus, they are more resilient to energy
price increases;
In contrast, developing EA countries’ food productions are higher
than total effect, however, generate less value added; and
Agricultural-based countries with low technology have low value-
added. Thus, local value added has limits in using new
techniques.
34. Retail price:
A rise in energy prices has direct and indirect effects on an
economy. The lower an economy’s energy inputs, the lower
the effect from energy price increases and likewise.
Additionally, such economy’s have greater potential in
nurturing efficiency and diversification with lower food intake
and thus exhibit smaller effects in retail prices;
The price-spread effects in terms of energy use, non-food
costs share and CPI differ across food items; and
The higher the effect of an increase in the oil price, the
greater the retail price. This occurs through channels of food
marketing such as transportation, packaging and so on.
35. Table 10. Retail Price of Food Products in Malaysia, 2005
Food products Share of non-
food
FMCI
*
Change in
PR
Wt.
CPI
CPI
%
Retail
Price
Rice, Bread, other cereals 0.761 1.49 1.13 4.40 0.044 0.050
Meat & meat products 0.845 1.49 1.26 2.90 0.029 0.036
Fish & seafood 0.963 1.49 1.44 4.50 0.045 0.065
Milk, cheese, & eggs 0.775 1.49 1.15 1.80 0.018 0.021
Oils and fats 0.623 1.49 0.93 0.60 0.006 0.006
Fruits & vegetables 0.742 1.49 1.11 3.30 0.033 0.036
Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate, &
confectionery
0.855 1.49 1.27 0.60 0.006 0.008
Food products n.e.c 0.678 1.49 1.01 0.80 0.008 0.008
Food away from home 0.779 1.49 1.16 10.00 0.100 0.116
Coffee, tea, cocoa, & Non-Alcoholic
Beverages
0.763 1.49 1.14 1.40 0.014 0.016
Sum/Total average 30.30 0.361
Source: Calculated from I-O Table 2005, DOS Malaysia
36. Sectoral Price effects
Relative prices across sectors of the EA economy performed
differently. Increased in the energy price generates more costs in
terms of generating value added and importing input in producing
food and non-food output. This has consequences on policies
concerning interconnectedness of energy inputs along food and
non-food corridors.
Food productions in developed EA countries are lower than
average total effect, nevertheless, these sectors generate greater
value added. Thus, they are more resilient to energy price
increases;
In contrast, developing EA countries’ food productions are higher
than total effect, however, generate less value added; and
Agricultural-based countries with low technology have low value-
added. Thus, local value added has limits in using new
techniques.
37. Retail price:
A rise in energy prices has direct and indirect effects on EA economies.
The lower an economy’s energy inputs, the lower the effect from energy
price increases. Additionally, such economy’s have greater potential in
nurturing efficiency and diversification with lower food intake and thus
exhibit smaller effects in retail prices;
The price-spread effects in terms of energy use, non-food costs share and
CPI differ across food items; and
The higher the effect of an increase in the oil price, the greater the retail
price. This occurs through channels of food marketing such as
transportation, packaging and so on.
38. Case 2: Wage and Productivity
Effect of wage and energy price change on Malaysian
industrial development. Khalid A.H., Zakariah A.R. and R.
Zarina R.M. Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, Kuala
Lumpur. Proceedings of the Malaysian National Economic
Conference July 2012 and due for publication in JEM, UKM.
Identifying key sectors of high income advanced economy for
Malaysia: A comparison between sectoral and NKEA
approaches by Khalid Abdul Hamid and Zakariah Abdul
Rashid, July 2012. (Edited UUM’s Paper)
39.
40. Case 3: Subsidy Rationalization
Economic Impacts of Subsidy Rationalization Malaysia by Khalid Abdul Hamid and Zakariah Abdul
Rashid MIER, Malaysia. Chapter 9: in Energy Market Integration in East Asia: Theories, Electricity
Sector and Subsidies By Yanrui Wu, Xunpeng Shi, Fukunari Kimura (Eds.) ERIA Research Project
Report 2011-17 (August 2012).
Subsidy Internal Briefing Note: Rationalization of Fossil Fuel Subsidy in Malaysia. By Khalid Abdul
Hamid, MIER. For IISD, Geneva. January 2012. Web add:
http://www.iisd.org/gsi/resources/citizens-guide-energy-subsidies-malaysia
Economic Impact of Higher Oil price in Malaysia: Integrated Input-Output Analysis. Khalid Abdul
Hamid, Doctor of Philosophy, UPM 2010.
Effect of Higher Oil Price to Consumer Food Products in Malaysia. Khalid, A.H., Zakariah, A.R and
Mohd Khairul Hisyam H.. Article due for publication at the MJES, Malaysian Economic Association,
University of Malaya.
The Effect of Higher oil Price on Consumer Food Products in Malaysia. Khalid, A.H., Zakariah, A.R.
(Presented at the International Economic Conference, Anadolu University, Eskisehir, Turkey .Vol. 1,
T2D Economics of Oil.
43. 11 things you need to do when study
abroad
1. Make friends with locals
2. Travel around
3. Take opportunity to increase your knowledge
4. Share the knowledge with new neighbours
5. Learn new traits
6. Enjoys the facilities
7. Shop
8. Sale
9. Go to movies
10. Experience their delicacies
11. Learn, unlearn and relearn (for flexibility)
44. Thriving in Graduate School
You made it! Now the real work begins.
Take advantage of all that the campus has to offer. Marymount, for instance,
extends all kinds of services to graduate students—the Center for Teaching &
Learning, counseling, study abroad, multimedia services, etc.
Connect with other students juggling home/work/school. Some universities have
graduate student associations that facilitate peer support and lobby on students’
behalf.
Build relationships with your professors. The University of Washington offers good
practice guidelines.
Befriend your librarians. They can make your life as a researcher so much
easier. Universities often have institutional subscriptions to online bibliographic
management programs—at Marymount, RefWorks —that save useful citations for
multiple bibliographies.
Prepare for your career as intensely as you prepared for graduate school. Hone
your writing and presentation skills. Learn how to organize your work and your
time. Seek out opportunities – advice.pdf
to present—on campus, in the community, and at conferences.
to publish —everywhere. Work your way up to an academic journal in your
field.
to network.
Pat yourself on the back now and then. You are on your way to becoming one of
the roughly 12 percent of Malaysian who hold a graduate or professional degree.
45. Parting notes
Be Creative, Innovative and committed in your works.
It’s the signal of success.
Makes things simple, but not easy.
Be moderate which does not mean slow and
procrastinate.
Finally, said Keynes in his remark on the economy “"In
the long run we are all dead”.
Says Islamic economy "in the long run we need to
grow a seed even we know that the world is going to
an end.
