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Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 1
Chapter 5
Discrete Distributions
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The overall learning objective of Chapter 5 is to help you understand a category of probability
distributions that produces only discrete outcomes, thereby enabling you to:
1. Distinguish between discrete random variables and continuous random variables.
2. Know how to determine the mean and variance of a discrete distribution.
3. Identify the type of statistical experiments that can be described by the binomial
distribution and know how to work such problems.
4. Decide when to use the Poisson distribution in analyzing statistical experiments and
know how to work such problems.
.
5. Decide when binomial distribution problems can be approximated by the Poisson
distribution and know how to work such problems.
6. Decide when to use the hypergeometric distribution and know how to work such
problems
CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY
Chapters 5 and 6 introduce the student to several statistical distributions. It is important
to differentiate between the discrete distributions of chapter 5 and the continuous distributions of
chapter 6.
The approach taken in presenting the binomial distribution is to build on techniques
presented in chapter 4. It can be helpful to take the time to apply the law of multiplication for
independent events to a problem and demonstrate to students that sequence is important. From
there, the student will more easily understand that by using combinations, one can more quickly
determine the number of sequences and weigh the probability of obtaining a single sequence by
that number. In a sense, we are developing the binomial formula through an inductive process.
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 2
Thus, the binomial formula becomes more of a summary device than a statistical "trick". The
binomial tables presented in this text are noncumulative. This makes it easier for the student to
recognize that the table is but a listing of a series of binomial formula computations. In addition,
it lends itself more readily to the graphing of a binomial distribution.
It is important to differentiate applications of the Poisson distribution from binomial
distribution problems. It is often difficult for students to determine which type of distribution to
apply to a problem. The Poisson distribution applies to rare occurrences over some interval. The
parameters involved in the binomial distribution (n and p) are different from the parameter
(Lambda) of a Poisson distribution.
It is sometimes difficult for students to know how to handle Poisson problems where the
interval for the problem is different than the interval for which Lambda was developed. If they
can view Lambda as a long run average which can be appropriately adjusted for various
intervals, then students can be more successful with these types of problems.
Solving for the mean and standard deviation of binomial distributions prepares the
students for chapter 6 where the normal distribution is sometimes used to solve binomial
distribution problems. In addition, graphing binomial and Poisson distributions affords the
student the opportunity to visualize the meaning and impact of a particular set of parameters for a
distribution.
It can be emphasized that the hypergeometric distribution is an exact distribution.
However, it is cumbersome to determine probabilities using the hypergeometric formula
particularly when computing cumulative probabilities. The hypergeometric distribution can be
presented as a fall-back position to be used when the binomial distribution should not be applied
because of the non independence of trials and size of sample.
CHAPTER OUTLINE
5.1 Discrete Versus Continuous Distributions
5.2 Describing a Discrete Distribution
Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of Discrete Distributions
Mean or Expected Value
Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Distribution
5.3 Binomial Distribution
Solving a Binomial Problem
Using the Binomial Table
Using the Computer to Produce a Binomial Distribution
Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution
Graphing Binomial Distributions
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 3
5.4 Poisson Distribution
Working Poisson Problems by Formula
Using the Poisson Tables
Mean and Standard Deviation of a Poisson Distribution
Graphing Poisson Distributions
Using the Computer to Generate Poisson Distributions
Approximating Binomial Problems by the Poisson Distribution
5.5 Hypergeometric Distribution
Using the Computer to Solve for Hypergeometric Distribution
Probabilities
KEY TERMS
Binomial Distribution Hypergeometric Distribution
Continuous Distributions Lambda (λ)
Continuous Random Variables Mean, or Expected Value
Discrete Distributions Poisson Distribution
Discrete Random Variables Random Variable
SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 5
5.1 x P(x) x·P(x) (x-µ)2
(x-µ)2
·P(x)
1 .238 .238 2.775556 0.6605823
2 .290 .580 0.443556 0.1286312
3 .177 .531 0.111556 0.0197454
4 .158 .632 1.779556 0.2811700
5 .137 .685 5.447556 0.7463152
µ = [x·P(x)] = 2.666 σ2
= (x-µ)2
·P(x) = 1.836444
σ = 836444.1 = 1.355155
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 4
5.2 x P(x) x·P(x) (x-µ)2
(x-µ)2
·P(x)
0 .103 .000 7.573504 0.780071
1 .118 .118 3.069504 0.362201
2 .246 .492 0.565504 0.139114
3 .229 .687 0.061504 0.014084
4 .138 .552 1.557504 0.214936
5 .094 .470 5.053504 0.475029
6 .071 .426 10.549500 0.749015
7 .001 .007 18.045500 0.018046
µ = [x·P(x)] = 2.752 σ2
= (x-µ)2
·P(x) = 2.752496
σ = 752496.2 = 1.6591
5.3 x P(x) x·P(x) (x-µ)2
(x-µ)2
·P(x)
0 .461 .000 0.913936 0.421324
1 .285 .285 0.001936 0.000552
2 .129 .258 1.089936 0.140602
3 .087 .261 4.177936 0.363480
4 .038 .152 9.265936 0.352106
E(x)=µ= [x·P(x)]= 0.956 σ2
= (x-µ)2
·P(x) = 1.278064
σ = 278064.1 = 1.1305
5.4 x P(x) x·P(x) (x-µ)2
(x-µ)2
·P(x)
0 .262 .000 1.4424 0.37791
1 .393 .393 0.0404 0.01588
2 .246 .492 0.6384 0.15705
3 .082 .246 3.2364 0.26538
4 .015 .060 7.8344 0.11752
5 .002 .010 14.4324 0.02886
6 .000 .000 23.0304 0.00000
µ = [x·P(x)] = 1.201 σ2
= (x-µ)2
·P(x) = 0.96260
σ = 96260. = .98112
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 5
5.5
a) n = 4 p = .10 q = .90
P(x=3) = 4C3(.10)3
(.90)1
= 4(.001)(.90) = .0036
b) n = 7 p = .80 q = .20
P(x=4) = 7C4(.80)4
(.20)3
= 35(.4096)(.008) = .1147
c) n = 10 p = .60 q = .40
P(x > 7) = P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) + P(x=10) =
10C7(.60)7
(.40)3
+ 10C8(.60)8
(.40)2
+ 10C9(.60)9
(.40)1
+10C10(.60)10
(.40)0
=
120(.0280)(.064) + 45(.0168)(.16) + 10(.0101)(.40) + 1(.0060)(1) =
.2150 + .1209 + .0403 + .0060 = .3822
d) n = 12 p = .45 q = .55
P(5 < x < 7) = P(x=5) + P(x=6) + P(x=7) =
12C5(.45)5
(.55)7
+ 12C6(.45)6
(.55)6
+ 12C7(.45)7
(.55)5
=
792(.0185)(.0152) + 924(.0083)(.0277) + 792(.0037)(.0503) =
.2225 + .2124 + .1489 = .5838
5.6 By Table A.2:
a) n = 20 p = .50
P(x=12) = .120
b) n = 20 p = .30
P(x > 8) = P(x=9) + P(x=10) + P(x=11) + ...+ P(x=20) =
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 6
.065 + .031 + .012 + .004 + .001 + .000 = .113
c) n = 20 p = .70
P(x < 12) = P(x=11) + P(x=10) + P(x=9) + ... + (Px=0) =
.065 + .031 + .012 + .004 + .001 + .000 = .113
d) n = 20 p = .90
P(x < 16) = P(x=16) + P(x=15) + P(x=14) + ...+ P(x=0) =
.090 + .032 + .009 + .002 + .000 = .133
e) n = 15 p = .40
P(4 < x < 9) =
P(x=4) + P(x=5) + P(x=6) + P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) =
.127 + .186 + .207 + .177 + .118 + .061 = .876
f) n = 10 p = .60
P(x > 7) = P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) + P(x=10) =
.215 + .122 + .040 + .006 = .382
5.7
a) n = 20 p = .70 q = .30
µ = n⋅p = 20(.70) = 14
σ = 2.4)30)(.70(.20 ==⋅⋅ qpn = 2.05
b) n = 70 p = .35 q = .65
µ = n⋅p = 70(.35) = 24.5
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 7
σ = 925.15)65)(.35(.70 ==⋅⋅ qpn = 3.99
c) n = 100 p = .50 q = .50
µ = n⋅p = 100(.50) = 50
σ = 25)50)(.50(.100 ==⋅⋅ qpn = 5
5.8
a) n = 6 p = .70 x Prob
0 .001
1 .010
2 .060
3 .185
4 .324
5 .303
6 .118
b) n = 20 p = .50 x Prob
0 .000
1 .000
2 .000
3 .001
4 .005
5 .015
6 .037
7 .074
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 8
8 .120
9 .160
10 .176
11 .160
12 .120
13 .074
14 .037
15 .015
16 .005
17 .001
18 .000
19 .000
20 .000
c) n = 8 p = .80 x Prob
0 .000
1 .000
2 .001
3 .009
4 .046
5 .147
6 .294
7 .336
8 .168
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 9
5.9
a) n = 20 p = .78 x = 14
20C14 (.78)14
(.22)6
= 38,760(.030855)(.00011338) = .1356
b) n = 20 p = .75 x = 20
20C20 (.75)20
(.25)0
= (1)(.0031712)(1) = .0032
c) n = 20 p = .70 x < 12
Use table A.2:
P(x=0) + P(x=1) + . . . + P(x=11)=
.000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 +
.001 + .004 + .012 + .031 + .065 = .113
5.10 n = 16 p = .40
P(x > 9): from Table A.2:
x Prob
9 .084
10 .039
11 .014
12 .004
13 .001
.142
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 10
P(3 < x < 6):
x Prob
3 .047
4 .101
5 .162
6 .198
.508
n = 13 p = .88
P(x = 10) = 13C10(.88)10
(.12)3
= 286(.278500976)(.001728) = .1376
P(x = 13) = 13C13(.88)13
(.12)0
= (1)(.1897906171)(1) = .1898
Expected Value = µ = n p = 13(.88) = 11.44
5.11 n = 25 P = .60
a) x > 15
P(x > 15) = P(x = 15) + P(x = 16) + · · · + P(x = 25)
Using Table A.2 n = 25, p = .80
x Prob
15 .161
16 .151
17 .120
18 .080
19 .044
20 .020
21 .007
22 .002
.585
b) x > 20
from a): P(x > 20) = P(x = 21) + P(x = 22) + P(x = 23) +
P(x = 24) + P(x = 25) =
.007 + .002 + .000 + .000 + .000 = .009
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 11
c) P(x < 10)
from Table A.2, x Prob.
9 .009
8 .003
7 .001
<6 .000
.013
5.12
The highest probability values are for x = 15, 16, 14, 17, 13, 18, and 12.
The expected value is 25(.60) = 15. The standard deviation is 2.45.
15 + 2(2.45) = 15 + 4.90 gives a range that goes from 10.10 to 19.90. From
table A.2, the sum of the probabilities of the values in this range (11 through
19) is .936 or 93.6% of the values which compares quite favorably with the
95% suggested by the empirical rule.
5.13
n = 15 p = .20
a) P(x = 5) = 15C5(.20)5
(.80)10
=
3003(.00032)(.1073742) = .1032
b) P(x > 9): Using Table A.2
P(x = 10) + P(x = 11) + . . . + P(x = 15) =
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 12
.000 + .000 + . . . + .000 = .000
c) P(x = 0) = 15C0(.20)0
(.80)15
=
(1)(1)(.035184) = .0352
d) P(4 < x < 7): Using Table A.2
P(x = 4) + P(x = 5) + P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) =
.188 + .103 + .043 + .014 = .348
e)
5.14 n = 18
a) p =.30 µ = 18(.30) = 5.4
p = .34 µ = 18(.34) = 6.12
b) P(x > 8) n = 18 p = .30
from Table A.2
x Prob
8 .081
9 .039
10 .015
11 .005
12 .001
.141
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 13
c) n = 18 p = .34
P(2 < x < 4) = P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) =
18C2(.34)2
(.66)16
+ 18C3(.34)3
(.66)15
+ 18C4(.34)4
(.66)14
=
.0229 + .0630 + .1217 = .2076
d) n = 18 p = .30 x = 0
18C0(.30)0
(.70)18
= .00163
n = 18 p = .34 x = 0
18C0(.34)0
(.66)18
= .00056
The probability that none are in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 is higher because
there is a smaller percentage in that category which is closer to zero.
5.15 a) Prob(x=5λ = 2.3)=
(2.35
)(e-2.3
) = (64.36343)(.1002588) = .0538
5! (120)
b) Prob(x=2λ = 3.9) =
(3.92
)(e-3.9
) = (15.21)(.02024) = .1539
2! (2)
c) Prob(x < 3λ = 4.1) =
Prob(x=3) + Prob(x=2) + Prob(x=1) + Prob(x=0) =
(4.13
)(e-4.1
) = (68.921)(.016574) = .1904
3! 6
+ (4.12
)(e-4.1
) = (16.81)(.016573) = .1393
2! 2
+ (4.11
)(e-4.1
) = (4.1)(.016573) = .0679
1! 1
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 14
+ (4.10
)(e-4.1
) = (1)(.016573) = .0166
0! 1
.1904 + .1393 + .0679 + .0166 = .4142
d) Prob(x=0λ = 2.7) =
(2.70
)(e-2.7
) = (1)(.0672) = .0672
0! 1
e) Prob(x=1 λ = 5.4)=
(5.41
)(e-5.4
) = (5.4)(.0045) = .0244
1! 1
f) Prob(4 < x < 8 λ = 4.4) =
Prob(x=5 λ = 4.4) + Prob(x=6 λ = 4.4) + Prob(x=7 λ = 4.4)=
(4.45
)(e-4.4
) + (4.46
)(e-4.4
) + (4.47
)(e-4.4
) =
5! 6! 7!
(1649.162)(.012277) + (7256.314)(.012277) + (31927.781)(.012277)
120 720 5040
= .1687 + .1237 + .0778 = .3702
5.16 a) Prob(x=6 λ = 3.8) = .0936
b) Prob(x>7 λ = 2.9):
x Prob
8 .0068
9 .0022
10 .0006
11 .0002
12 .0000
x > 7 .0098
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 15
c) Prob(3 < x < 9 λ = 4.2)=
x Prob
3 .1852
4 .1944
5 .1633
6 .1143
7 .0686
8 .0360
9 .0168
3 < x < 9 .7786
d) Prob(x=0 λ = 1.9) = .1496
e) Prob(x < 6 λ = 2.9)=
x Prob
0 .0050
1 .1596
2 .2314
3 .2237
4 .1622
5 .0940
6 .0455
x < 6 .9214
f) Prob(5 < x < 8 λ = 5.7) =
x Prob
6 .1594
7 .1298
8 .0925
5 < x < 8 .3817
5.17 a) λ = 6.3 mean = 6.3 Standard deviation = 3.6 = 2.51
x Prob
0 .0018
1 .0116
2 .0364
3 .0765
4 .1205
5 .1519
6 .1595
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 16
7 .1435
8 .1130
9 .0791
10 .0498
11 .0285
12 .0150
13 .0073
14 .0033
15 .0014
16 .0005
17 .0002
18 .0001
19 .0000
b) λ = 1.3 mean = 1.3 standard deviation = 3.1 = 1.14
x Prob
0 .2725
1 .3542
2 .2303
3 .0998
4 .0324
5 .0084
6 .0018
7 .0003
8 .0001
9 .0000
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 17
c) λ = 8.9 mean = 8.9 standard deviation = 9.8 = 2.98
x Prob
0 .0001
1 .0012
2 .0054
3 .0160
4 .0357
5 .0635
6 .0941
7 .1197
8 .1332
9 .1317
10 .1172
11 .0948
12 .0703
13 .0481
14 .0306
15 .0182
16 .0101
17 .0053
18 .0026
19 .0012
20 .0005
21 .0002
22 .0001
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 18
d) λ = 0.6 mean = 0.6 standard deviation = 6.0 = .775
x Prob
0 .5488
1 .3293
2 .0988
3 .0198
4 .0030
5 .0004
6 .0000
5.18 λ = 2.84 minutes
a) Prob(x=6 λ = 2.8)
from Table A.3 .0407
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 19
b) Prob(x=0 λ = 2.8) =
from Table A.3 .0608
c) Unable to meet demand if x > 44 minutes:
x Prob.
5 .0872
6 .0407
7 .0163
8 .0057
9 .0018
10 .0005
11 .0001
x > 4 .1523
.1523 probability of being unable to meet the demand.
Probability of meeting the demand = 1 - (.1523) = .8477
15.23% of the time a second window will need to be opened.
d) λ = 2.8 arrivals4 minutes
Prob(x=3) arrivals2 minutes = ??
Lambda must be changed to the same interval (½ the size)
New lambda=1.4 arrivals2 minutes
Prob(x=3)  λ=1.4) = from Table A.3 = .1128
Prob(x > 5 8 minutes) = ??
Lambda must be changed to the same interval(twice the size):
New lambda= 5.6 arrivals8 minutes
Prob(x > 5  λ = 5.6):
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 20
From Table A.3: x Prob.
5 .1697
6 .1584
7 .1267
8 .0887
9 .0552
10 .0309
11 .0157
12 .0073
13 .0032
14 .0013
15 .0005
16 .0002
17 .0001
x > 5 .6579
5.19 λ = Σx/n = 126/36 = 3.5
Using Table A.3
a) P(x = 0) = .0302
b) P(x > 6) = P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) + . . . =
.0771 + .0385 + .0169 + .0066 + .0023 +
.0007 + .0002 + .0001 = .1424
c) P(x < 4 10 minutes)
λ = 7.0 10 minutes
P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) =
.0009 + .0064 + .0223 + .0521 = .0817
d) P(3 < x < 6 10 minutes)
λ = 7.0  10 minutes
P(3 < x < 6) = P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) + P(x = 5) + P(x = 6)
= .0521 + .0912 + .1277 + .1490 = .42
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 21
e) P(x = 8  15 minutes)
λ = 10.5  15 minutes
P(x = 8  15 minutes) =
!8
))(5.10(
!
5.108 −−
=
⋅ e
X
eX λ
λ
= .1009
5.20 λ = 5.6 days3 weeks
a) Prob(x=0  λ = 5.6):
from Table A.3 = .0037
b) Prob(x=6  λ = 5.6):
from Table A.3 = .1584
c) Prob(x > 15  λ = 5.6):
x Prob.
15 .0005
16 .0002
17 .0001
x > 15 .0008
Because this probability is so low, if it actually occurred, the researcher would
actually have to question the Lambda value as too low for this period.
5.21 λ = 0.6 trips 1 year
a) Prob(x=0  λ = 0.6):
from Table A.3 = .5488
b) Prob(x=1  λ = 0.6):
from Table A.3 = .3293
c) Prob(x > 2  λ = 0.6):
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 22
from Table A.3 x Prob.
2 .0988
3 .0198
4 .0030
5 .0004
6 .0000
x > 2 .1220
d) Prob(x < 3  3 year period):
The interval length has been increased (3 times)
New Lambda = λ = 1.8 trips3 years
Prob(x < 3  λ = 1.8):
from Table A.3 x Prob.
0 .1653
1 .2975
2 .2678
3 .1607
x < 3 .8913
e) Prob(x=4  6 years):
The interval has been increased (6 times)
New Lambda = λ = 3.6 trips6 years
Prob(x=4  λ = 3.6):
from Table A.3 = .1912
5.22 λ = 1.2 collisions4 months
a) Prob(x=0  λ = 1.2):
from Table A.3 = .3012
b) Prob(x=2 2 months):
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 23
The interval has been decreased (by ½)
New Lambda = λ = 0.6 collisions2 months
Prob(x=2  λ = 0.6):
from Table A.3 = .0988
c) Prob (x < 1 collision6 months):
The interval length has been increased (by 1.5)
New Lambda = λ = 1.8 collisions6 months
Prob(x < 1 λ = 1.8):
from Table A.3 x Prob.
0 .1653
1 .2975
x < 1 .4628
The result is likely to happen almost half the time (46.26%). Ship channel and
weather conditions are about normal for this period. Safety awareness is
about normal for this period. There is no compelling reason to reject the
lambda value of 0.6 collisions per 4 months based on an outcome of 0 or 1
collisions per 6 months.
5.23 λ = 1.2 penscarton
a) Prob(x=0  λ = 1.2):
from Table A.3 = .3012
b) Prob(x > 8  λ = 1.2):
from Table A.3 = .0000
c) Prob(x > 3  λ = 1.2):
from Table A.3 x Prob.
4 .0260
5 .0062
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 24
6 .0012
7 .0002
8 .0000
x > 3 .0336
5.24 n = 100,000 p = .00004
Prob(x > 7 n = 100,000 p = .00004):
λ = µ = n⋅p = 100,000(.00004) = 4.0
Since n > 20 and n⋅p < 7, the Poisson approximation to this binomial problem is
close enough.
Prob(x > 7  λ = 4):
Using Table A.3 x Prob.
7 .0595
8 .0298
9 .0132
10 .0053
11 .0019
12 .0006
13 .0002
14 .0001
x > 7 .1106
Prob(x>10  λ = 4):
Using Table A.3 x Prob.
11 .0019
12 .0006
13 .0002
14 .0001
x > 10 .0028
Since getting more than 10 is a rare occurrence, this particular geographic region
appears to have a higher average rate than other regions. An investigation of
particular characteristics of this region might be warranted.
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 25
5.25 p = .009 n = 200
Use the Poisson Distribution:
λ = n⋅p = 200(.009) = 1.8
P(x > 6) from Table A.3 =
P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) + P(x = 8) + P(x = 9) + . . . =
.0078 + .0020 + .0005 + .0001 = .0104
P(x > 10) = .0000
P(x = 0) = .1653
P(x < 5) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P( x = 3) + P(x = 4) =
.1653 + .2975 + .2678 + .1607 + .0723 = .9636
5.26 n = 300, p = .01, λ = n(p) = 300(.01) = 3
a) Prob(x = 5):
Using λ = 3 and Table A.3 = .1008
b) Prob (x < 4) = Prob.(x = 0) + Prob.(x = 1) + Prob.(x = 2) + Prob.(x = 3) =
.0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472
c) The expected number = µ = λ = 3
5.27 a) Prob(x = 3 N = 11, A = 8, n = 4)
330
)3)(56(
411
1338
=
⋅
C
CC
= .5091
b) Prob(x < 2)N = 15, A = 5, n = 6)
Prob(x = 1) + Prob (x = 0) =
615
51015
C
CC ⋅
+
615
61005
C
CC ⋅
=
5005
)210)(1(
5005
)252)(5(
+
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 26
.2517 + .0420 = .2937
c) Prob(x=0 N = 9, A = 2, n = 3)
84
)35)(1(
39
3702
=
⋅
C
CC
= .4167
d) Prob(x > 4 N = 20, A = 5, n = 7) =
Prob(x = 5) + Prob(x = 6) + Prob(x = 7) =
720
21555
C
CC ⋅
+
720
11565
C
CC ⋅
+
720
01575
C
CC ⋅
=
77520
)105)(1(
+ 5C6 (impossible) + 5C7(impossible) = .0014
5.28 N = 19 n = 6
a) P(x = 1 private) A = 11
132,27
)56)(11(
619
58111
=
⋅
C
CC
= .0227
b) P(x = 4 private)
132,27
)28)(330(
619
28411
=
⋅
C
CC
= .3406
c) P(x = 6 private)
132,27
)1)(462(
619
08611
=
⋅
C
CC
= .0170
d) P(x = 0 private)
132,27
)28)(1(
619
68011
=
⋅
C
CC
= .0010
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 27
5.29 N = 17 A = 8 n = 4
a) P(x = 0) =
417
4908
C
CC ⋅
=
2380
)126)(1(
= .0529
b) P(x = 4) =
417
0948
C
CC ⋅
=
2380
)1)(70(
= .0294
c) P(x = 2 non computer) =
417
2829
C
CC ⋅
=
2380
)28)(36(
= .4235
5.30 N = 20 A = 16 white N - A = 4 red n = 5
a) Prob(x = 4 white) =
520
14416
C
CC ⋅
=
15504
)4)(1820(
= .4696
b) Prob(x = 4 red) =
520
11644
C
CC ⋅
=
15504
)16)(1(
= .0010
c) Prob(x = 5 red) =
520
01654
C
CC ⋅
= .0000 because 4C5 is impossible to determine
The participant cannot draw 5 red beads if there are only 4 to draw from.
5.31 N = 10 n = 4
a) A = 3 x = 2
210
)21)(3(
410
2723
=
⋅
C
CC
= .30
b) A = 5 x = 0
210
)5)(1(
410
4505
=
⋅
C
CC
= .0238
c) A = 5 x = 3
210
)5)(10(
410
1535
=
⋅
C
CC
= .2381
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 28
5.32 N = 16 A = 4 defective n = 3
a) Prob(x = 0) =
560
)220)(1(
316
31204
=
⋅
C
CC
= .3929
b) Prob(x = 3) =
560
)1)(4(
316
01234
=
⋅
C
CC
= .0071
c) Prob(x > 2) = Prob(x=2) + Prob(x=3) =
316
11224
C
CC ⋅
+ .0071 (from part b.) =
560
)12)(6( + .0071 = .1286 + .0071 = .1357
d) Prob(x < 1) = Prob(x=1) + Prob(x=0) =
316
21214
C
CC ⋅
+ .3929 (from part a.) =
560
)66)(4(
+ .3929 = .4714 + .3929 = .8643
5.33 N = 18 A = 11 Hispanic n = 5
Prob(x < 1) = Prob(1) + Prob(0) =
518
47111
C
CC ⋅
+
518
57011
C
CC ⋅
=
8568
)21)(1(
8568
)35)(11(
+ = .0449 + .0025 = .0474
It is fairly unlikely that these results occur by chance. A researcher might
investigate further the causes of this result. Were officers selected based on
leadership, years of service, dedication, prejudice, or what?
5.34 a) Prob(x=4 n = 11 and p = .23)
11C4(.23)4
(.77)7
= 330(.0028)(.1605) = .1482
b) Prob(x > 1n = 6 and p = .50) =
1 - Prob(x < 1) = 1 - Prob(x = 0) =
1-6C0(.50)0
(.50)6
= 1-(1)(1)(.0156) = .9844
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 29
c) Prob(x > 7 n = 9 and p = .85) = Prob(x = 8) + Prob(x = 9) =
9C8(.85)8
(.15)1
+ 9C9(.85)9
(.15)0
=
(9)(.2725)(.15) + (1)(.2316)(1) = .3679 + .2316 = .5995
d) Prob(x < 3 n = 14 and p = .70) =
Prob(x = 3) + Prob(x = 2) + Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) =
14C3(.70)3
(.30)11
+ 14C2(.70)2
(.30)12
+
14C1(.70)1
(.30)13
+ 14C0(.70)0
(.30)14
=
(364)(.3430)(.00000177) + (91)(.49)(.000000047)=
(14)(.70)(.00000016) + (1)(1)(.000000047) =
.0002 + .0000 + .0000 + .0000 = .0002
5.35 a) Prob(x = 14 n = 20 and p = .60) = .124
b) Prob(x < 5 n = 10 and p =.30) =
Prob(x = 4) + Prob(x = 3) + Prob(x = 2) + Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x=0) =
x Prob.
0 .028
1 .121
2 .233
3 .267
4 .200
x < 5 .849
c) Prob(x > 12 n = 15 and p = .60) =
Prob(x = 12) + Prob(x = 13) + Prob(x = 14) + Prob(x = 15)
x Prob.
12 .063
13 .022
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 30
14 .005
15 .000
x > 12 .090
d) Prob(x > 20 n = 25 and p = .40) = Prob(x = 21) + Prob(x = 22) +
Prob(x = 23) + Prob(x = 24) + Prob(x=25) =
x Prob.
21 .000
22 .000
23 .000
24 .000
25 .000
x > 20 .000
5.36
a) Prob(x=4  λ = 1.25)
(1.254
)(e-1.25
) = (2.4414)(.2865) = .0291
4! 24
b) Prob(x < 1 λ = 6.37) = Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) =
(6.37)1
(e-6.37
) + (6.37)0
(e-6.37
) = (6.37)(.0017) + (1)(.0017) =
1! 0! 1 1
.0109 + .0017 = .0126
c) Prob(x > 5 λ = 2.4) = Prob(x = 6) + Prob(x = 7) + ... =
(2.4)6
(e-2.4
) + (2.4)7
(e-2.4
) + (2.4)8
(e-2.4)
+ (2.4)9
(e-2.4)
+ (2.4)10
(e-2.4
) + ...
6! 7! 8! 9! 10!
.0241 + .0083 + .0025 + .0007 + .0002 = .0358
for values x > 11 the probabilities are each .0000 when rounded off to 4
decimal places.
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 31
5.37 a) Prob(x = 3  λ = 1.8) = .1607
b) Prob(x < 5 λ = 3.3) =
Prob(x = 4) + Prob(x = 3) + Prob(x = 2) + Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) =
x Prob.
0 .0369
1 .1217
2 .2008
3 .2209
4 .1823
x < 5 .7626
c) Prob(x > 3 λ = 2.1) =
x Prob.
3 .1890
4 .0992
5 .0417
6 .0146
7 .0044
8 .0011
9 .0003
10 .0001
11 .0000
x > 5 .3504
d) Prob(2 < x < 5 λ = 4.2) = Prob(x=3) + Prob(x=4) + Prob(x=5) =
x Prob.
3 .1852
4 .1944
5 .1633
2 < x < 5 .5429
5.38 a) Prob(x = 3 N = 6, n = 4, A = 5) =
15
)1)(10(
46
1135
=
⋅
C
CC
= .6667
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 32
b) Prob(x < 1 N = 10, n = 3, A = 5) = Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) =
310
2515
C
CC ⋅
+
310
3505
C
CC ⋅
=
120
)10)(1(
120
)10)(5(
+
= .4167 + .0833 = .5000
c) Prob(x > 2  N = 13, n = 5, A = 3) =
Prob(x=2) + Prob(x=3) Note: only 3 x's in population
513
31023
C
CC ⋅
+
513
21033
C
CC ⋅
=
1287
)45)(1(
1287
)120)(3(
+
= .2797 + .0350 = .3147
5.39 n = 25 p = .20 retired
from Table A.2: P(x = 7) = .111
P(x > 10): P(x = 10) + P(x = 11) + . . . + P(x = 25) =
.012 + .004 + .001 = .017
Expected Value = µ = n⋅p = 25(.20) = 5
n = 20 p = .40 mutual funds
P(x = 8) = .180
P(x < 6) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + . . . + P(x = 5) =
.000 + .000 + .003 +.012 + .035 + .075 = .125
P(x = 0) = .000
P(x > 12) = P(x = 12) + P(x = 13) + . . . + P(x = 20) =
.035 + .015 + .005 + .001 = .056
x = 8
Expected Number = µ = n p = 20(.40) = 8
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 33
5.40 λ = 3.2 cars2 hours
a) Prob(x=3) cars per 1 hour) = ??
The interval has been decreased by ½.
The new λ = 1.6 cars1 hour.
Prob(x = 3 λ = 1.6) = (from Table A.3) .1378
b) Prob(x = 0 cars per ½ hour) = ??
The interval has been decreased by ¼ the original amount.
The new λ = 0.8 cars½ hour.
Prob(x = 0 λ = 0.8) = (from Table A.3) .4493
c) Prob(x > 5 λ = 1.6) = (from Table A.3)
x Prob.
5 .0176
6 .0047
7 .0011
8 .0002
.0236
Either a rare event occurred or perhaps the long-run average, λ, has changed
(increased).
5.41 N = 32 A = 10 n = 12
a) P(x = 3) =
1232
922310
C
CC ⋅
=
840,792,225
)420,497)(120(
= .2644
b) P(x = 6) =
1232
622610
C
CC ⋅
=
840,792,225
)613,74)(210(
= .0694
c) P(x = 0) =
1232
1222010
C
CC ⋅
=
840,792,225
)646,646)(1(
= .0029
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 34
d) A = 22
P(7 < x < 9) =
1232
510722
C
CC ⋅
+
1232
410822
C
CC ⋅
+
1232
310922
C
CC ⋅
=
840,792,225
)120)(420,497(
840,792,225
)210)(770,319(
840,792,225
)252)(544,170(
++
= .1903 + .2974 + .2644 = .7521
5.42 λ = 1.4 defects 1 lot If x > 3, buyer rejects If x < 3, buyer accepts
Prob(x < 3 λ = 1.4) = (from Table A.3)
x Prob.
0 .2466
1 .3452
2 .2417
3 .1128
x < 3 .9463
5.43 a) n = 20 and p = .25
The expected number = µ = n⋅p = (20)(.25) = 5.00
b) Prob(x < 1 n = 20 and p = .25) =
Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) = 20C1(.25)1
(.75)19
+ 20C0(.25)0
(.75)20
= (20)(.25)(.00423) + (1)(1)(.0032) = .0212 +. 0032 = .0244
Since the probability is so low, the population of your state may have a lower
percentage of chronic heart conditions than those of other states.
5.44 a) Prob(x > 7 n = 10 and p = .70) = (from Table A.2):
x Prob.
8 .233
9 .121
10 .028
x > 7 .382
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 35
Expected number = µ = n⋅p = 10(.70) = 7
b) Expected number = µ = n⋅p = 15 (1/3) = 5
Prob(x=0⋅ n = 15 and p = 1/3) =
15C0( )0
( )15
= .0023
c) Prob(x = 7 n = 7 and p = .53) = 7C7(.53)7
(.47)0
= .0117
Probably the 53% figure is too low for this population since the probability of
this occurrence is so low (.0117).
5.45 n = 12
a.) Prob(x = 0 long hours):
p = .20 12C0(.20)0
(.80)12
= .0687
b.) Prob(x > 6) long hours):
p = .20
Using Table A.2: .016 + .003 + .001 = .020
c) Prob(x = 5 good financing):
p = .25, 12C5(.25)5
(.75)7
= .1032
d.) p = .19 (good plan), expected number = µ = n(p) = 12(.19) = 2.28
5.46 n = 100,000 p = .000014
Worked as a Poisson: λ = n⋅p = 100,000(.000014) = 1.4
a) P(x = 5):
from Table A.3 = .0111
b) P(x = 0):
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 36
from Table A.3 = .2466
c) P(x > 6): (from Table A.3)
x Prob
7 .0005
8 .0001
.0006
5.47 Prob(x < 3) n = 8 and p = .60) = (from Table A.2)
x Prob.
0 .001
1 .008
2 .041
3 .124
x < 3 .174
17.4% of the time in a sample of eight, three or fewer customers are walk-ins by
chance. Other reasons for such a low number of walk-ins might be that she is
retaining more old customers than before or perhaps a new competitor is
attracting walk-ins away from her.
5.48 n = 25 p = .20
a) Prob(x = 8 n = 25 and p = .20) = (from Table A.2) .062
b) Prob(x > 10) n=25 and p = .20) = (from Table A.2)
x Prob.
11 .004
12 .001
13 .000
x > 10 .005
c) Since such a result would only occur 0.5% of the time by chance, it is likely
that the analyst's list was not representative of the entire state of Idaho or the
20% figure for the Idaho census is not correct.
5.49 λ = 0.6 flats2000 miles
Prob(x = 0 λ = 0.6) = (from Table A.3) .5488
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 37
Prob(x > 3 λ = 0.6) = (from Table A.3)
x Prob.
3 .0198
4 .0030
5 .0004
x > 3 .0232
One trip is independent of the other.
Let F = flat tire and NF = no flat tire
P(NF1 _ NF2) = P(NF1) ⋅ P(NF2)
P(NF) = .5488
P(NF1 _ NF2) = (.5488)(.5488) = .3012
5.50 N = 25 n = 8
a) P(x = 1 in NY) A = 4
825
72114
C
CC ⋅
=
575,081,1
)280,116)(4(
= .4300
b) P(x = 4 in top 10) A = 10
575,081,1
)1365(210(
825
415410
=
⋅
C
CC
= .2650
c) P(x = 0 in California) A = 4
575,081,1
)490,203)(1(
825
82104
=
⋅
C
CC
= .1881
d) P(x = 3 with M) A = 3
575,081,1
)334,26)(1(
825
52233
=
⋅
C
CC
= .0243
5.51 N = 24 n = 6 A = 8
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 38
a) P(x = 6) =
596,134
)1)(28(
624
01668
=
⋅
C
CC
= .0002
b) P(x = 0) =
596,134
)8008)(1(
624
61608
=
⋅
C
CC
= .0595
d) A = 16 East Side
P(x = 3) =
596,134
)56)(560(
624
38316
=
⋅
C
CC
= .2330
5.52 n = 25 p = .20
Expected Value = µ = n⋅p = 25(.20) = 5
µ = 25(.20) = 5
σ = )80)(.20(.25=⋅⋅ qpn = 2
P(x > 12) = (from Table A.2)
x Prob
13 .0000
The values for x > 12 are so far away from the expected value that they are very
unlikely to occur.
P(x = 14) = 25C14(.20)14
(.80)11
= .000063 which is very unlikely.
If this value (x = 14) actually occurred, one would doubt the validity of the
p = .20 figure or one would have experienced a very rare event.
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 39
5.53 λ = 2.4 calls1 minute
a) Prob(x = 0 λ = 2.4) = (from Table A.3) .0907
b) Can handle x < 5 calls Cannot handle x > 5 calls
Prob(x > 5 λ = 2.4) = (from Table A.3)
x Prob.
6 .0241
7 .0083
8 .0025
9 .0007
10 .0002
11 .0000
x > 5 .0358
c) Prob(x = 3 calls 2 minutes)
The interval has been increased 2 times.
New Lambda = λ = 4.8 calls2 minutes.
from Table A.3: .1517
d) Prob(x < 1 calls15 seconds):
The interval has been decreased by ¼.
New Lambda = λ = 0.6 calls15 seconds.
Prob(x < 1 λ = 0.6) = (from Table A.3)
Prob(x = 1) = .3293
Prob(x = 0) = .5488
Prob(x < 1) = .8781
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 40
5.54 n = 160 p = .01
Working this problem as a Poisson problem:
a) Expected number = µ = n(p) = 160(.01) = 1.6
b) P(x > 8):
Using Table A.3: x Prob.
8 .0002
9 .0000
.0002
c) P(2 < x < 6):
Using Table A.3: x Prob.
2 .2584
3 .1378
4 .0551
5 .0176
6 .0047
P(2 < x < 6) .4736
5.55 p = .005 n = 1,000
λ = n⋅p = (1,000)(.005) = 5
a) P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) =
.0067 + .0337 + .0842 + .1404 = .265
b) P(x > 10) = P(x = 11) + P(x = 12) + . . . =
.0082 + .0034 + .0013 + .0005 + .0002 = .0136
c) P(x = 0) = .0067
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 41
5.56 n = 8 P = .36 x = 0 Women
8C0(.36)0
(.64)8
= (1)(1)(.0281475) = .0281
It is unlikely that a company would randomly hire 8 physicians from the U.S. pool
and none of them would be female. If this actually happened, the figures might
be used as evidence in a lawsuit.
5.57 N = 32
a) n = 5 x = 3 A = 10
376,201
)231)(120(
532
222310
=
⋅
C
CC
= .1377
b) n = 8 x < 2 A = 6
832
82606
C
CC ⋅
+
832
72616
C
CC ⋅
+
832
62626
C
CC ⋅
=
300,518,10
)760,38)(15(
300,518,10
)800,657)(6(
300,518,10
)275,562,1)(1(
++ = .1485 + .3752 + .0553 = .5790
c) n = 5 x = 2 p = 3/26 = .1154
5C2(.1154)2
(.8846)3
= (10)(.013317)(.692215) = .0922
5.58 N = 14 n = 4
a) P(x = 4 N = 14, n = 4, A = 10 Northside)
1001
)1((210(
414
04410
=
⋅
C
CC
= .2098
b) P(x = 4 N = 14, n = 4, A = 4 West)
1001
)1)(1(
414
01044
=
⋅
C
CC
= .0010
c) P(x = 2 N = 14, n = 4, A = 4 West)
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 42
1001
)45)(6(
414
21024
=
⋅
C
CC
= .2697
5.59 a) λ = 3.841,000
P(x = 0) =
!0
84.3 84.30 −
⋅e
= .0215
b) λ = 7.682,000
P(x = 6) =
720
)000461975)(.258.195,205(
!6
68.7 68.76
=
⋅ −
e
= .1317
c) λ = 1.61,000 and λ = 4.83,000
from Table A.3:
P(x < 7) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + . . . + P(x = 6) =
.0082 + .0395 + .0948 + .1517 + .1820 + .1747 + .1398 = .7907
5.60
This is a binomial distribution with n = 15 and p = .36.
µ = n⋅p = 15(.36) = 5.4
σ = )64)(.36(.15 = 1.86
The most likely values are near the mean, 5.4. Note from the printout that the
most probable values are at x = 5 and x = 6 which are near the mean.
5.61 This printout contains the probabilities for various values of x from zero to eleven from a
Poisson distribution with λ = 2.78. Note that the highest probabilities are at x = 2 and x
= 3 which are near the mean. The probability is slightly higher at x = 2 than at x = 3 even
though x = 3 is nearer to the mean because of the “piling up” effect of x = 0.
5.62 This is a binomial distribution with n = 22 and p = .64.
The mean is n⋅p = 22(.64) = 14.08 and the standard deviation is:
σ = )36)(.64(.22=⋅⋅ qpn = 2.25
Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 43
The x value with the highest peak on the graph is at x = 14 followed by x = 15
and x = 13 which are nearest to the mean.
5.63 This is the graph of a Poisson Distribution with λ = 1.784. Note the high
probabilities at x = 1 and x = 2 which are nearest to the mean. Note also that the
probabilities for values of x > 8 are near to zero because they are so far away
from the mean or expected value.

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05 ch ken black solution

  • 1. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 1 Chapter 5 Discrete Distributions LEARNING OBJECTIVES The overall learning objective of Chapter 5 is to help you understand a category of probability distributions that produces only discrete outcomes, thereby enabling you to: 1. Distinguish between discrete random variables and continuous random variables. 2. Know how to determine the mean and variance of a discrete distribution. 3. Identify the type of statistical experiments that can be described by the binomial distribution and know how to work such problems. 4. Decide when to use the Poisson distribution in analyzing statistical experiments and know how to work such problems. . 5. Decide when binomial distribution problems can be approximated by the Poisson distribution and know how to work such problems. 6. Decide when to use the hypergeometric distribution and know how to work such problems CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY Chapters 5 and 6 introduce the student to several statistical distributions. It is important to differentiate between the discrete distributions of chapter 5 and the continuous distributions of chapter 6. The approach taken in presenting the binomial distribution is to build on techniques presented in chapter 4. It can be helpful to take the time to apply the law of multiplication for independent events to a problem and demonstrate to students that sequence is important. From there, the student will more easily understand that by using combinations, one can more quickly determine the number of sequences and weigh the probability of obtaining a single sequence by that number. In a sense, we are developing the binomial formula through an inductive process.
  • 2. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 2 Thus, the binomial formula becomes more of a summary device than a statistical "trick". The binomial tables presented in this text are noncumulative. This makes it easier for the student to recognize that the table is but a listing of a series of binomial formula computations. In addition, it lends itself more readily to the graphing of a binomial distribution. It is important to differentiate applications of the Poisson distribution from binomial distribution problems. It is often difficult for students to determine which type of distribution to apply to a problem. The Poisson distribution applies to rare occurrences over some interval. The parameters involved in the binomial distribution (n and p) are different from the parameter (Lambda) of a Poisson distribution. It is sometimes difficult for students to know how to handle Poisson problems where the interval for the problem is different than the interval for which Lambda was developed. If they can view Lambda as a long run average which can be appropriately adjusted for various intervals, then students can be more successful with these types of problems. Solving for the mean and standard deviation of binomial distributions prepares the students for chapter 6 where the normal distribution is sometimes used to solve binomial distribution problems. In addition, graphing binomial and Poisson distributions affords the student the opportunity to visualize the meaning and impact of a particular set of parameters for a distribution. It can be emphasized that the hypergeometric distribution is an exact distribution. However, it is cumbersome to determine probabilities using the hypergeometric formula particularly when computing cumulative probabilities. The hypergeometric distribution can be presented as a fall-back position to be used when the binomial distribution should not be applied because of the non independence of trials and size of sample. CHAPTER OUTLINE 5.1 Discrete Versus Continuous Distributions 5.2 Describing a Discrete Distribution Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of Discrete Distributions Mean or Expected Value Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Distribution 5.3 Binomial Distribution Solving a Binomial Problem Using the Binomial Table Using the Computer to Produce a Binomial Distribution Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution Graphing Binomial Distributions
  • 3. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 3 5.4 Poisson Distribution Working Poisson Problems by Formula Using the Poisson Tables Mean and Standard Deviation of a Poisson Distribution Graphing Poisson Distributions Using the Computer to Generate Poisson Distributions Approximating Binomial Problems by the Poisson Distribution 5.5 Hypergeometric Distribution Using the Computer to Solve for Hypergeometric Distribution Probabilities KEY TERMS Binomial Distribution Hypergeometric Distribution Continuous Distributions Lambda (λ) Continuous Random Variables Mean, or Expected Value Discrete Distributions Poisson Distribution Discrete Random Variables Random Variable SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 5 5.1 x P(x) x·P(x) (x-µ)2 (x-µ)2 ·P(x) 1 .238 .238 2.775556 0.6605823 2 .290 .580 0.443556 0.1286312 3 .177 .531 0.111556 0.0197454 4 .158 .632 1.779556 0.2811700 5 .137 .685 5.447556 0.7463152 µ = [x·P(x)] = 2.666 σ2 = (x-µ)2 ·P(x) = 1.836444 σ = 836444.1 = 1.355155
  • 4. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 4 5.2 x P(x) x·P(x) (x-µ)2 (x-µ)2 ·P(x) 0 .103 .000 7.573504 0.780071 1 .118 .118 3.069504 0.362201 2 .246 .492 0.565504 0.139114 3 .229 .687 0.061504 0.014084 4 .138 .552 1.557504 0.214936 5 .094 .470 5.053504 0.475029 6 .071 .426 10.549500 0.749015 7 .001 .007 18.045500 0.018046 µ = [x·P(x)] = 2.752 σ2 = (x-µ)2 ·P(x) = 2.752496 σ = 752496.2 = 1.6591 5.3 x P(x) x·P(x) (x-µ)2 (x-µ)2 ·P(x) 0 .461 .000 0.913936 0.421324 1 .285 .285 0.001936 0.000552 2 .129 .258 1.089936 0.140602 3 .087 .261 4.177936 0.363480 4 .038 .152 9.265936 0.352106 E(x)=µ= [x·P(x)]= 0.956 σ2 = (x-µ)2 ·P(x) = 1.278064 σ = 278064.1 = 1.1305 5.4 x P(x) x·P(x) (x-µ)2 (x-µ)2 ·P(x) 0 .262 .000 1.4424 0.37791 1 .393 .393 0.0404 0.01588 2 .246 .492 0.6384 0.15705 3 .082 .246 3.2364 0.26538 4 .015 .060 7.8344 0.11752 5 .002 .010 14.4324 0.02886 6 .000 .000 23.0304 0.00000 µ = [x·P(x)] = 1.201 σ2 = (x-µ)2 ·P(x) = 0.96260 σ = 96260. = .98112
  • 5. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 5 5.5 a) n = 4 p = .10 q = .90 P(x=3) = 4C3(.10)3 (.90)1 = 4(.001)(.90) = .0036 b) n = 7 p = .80 q = .20 P(x=4) = 7C4(.80)4 (.20)3 = 35(.4096)(.008) = .1147 c) n = 10 p = .60 q = .40 P(x > 7) = P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) + P(x=10) = 10C7(.60)7 (.40)3 + 10C8(.60)8 (.40)2 + 10C9(.60)9 (.40)1 +10C10(.60)10 (.40)0 = 120(.0280)(.064) + 45(.0168)(.16) + 10(.0101)(.40) + 1(.0060)(1) = .2150 + .1209 + .0403 + .0060 = .3822 d) n = 12 p = .45 q = .55 P(5 < x < 7) = P(x=5) + P(x=6) + P(x=7) = 12C5(.45)5 (.55)7 + 12C6(.45)6 (.55)6 + 12C7(.45)7 (.55)5 = 792(.0185)(.0152) + 924(.0083)(.0277) + 792(.0037)(.0503) = .2225 + .2124 + .1489 = .5838 5.6 By Table A.2: a) n = 20 p = .50 P(x=12) = .120 b) n = 20 p = .30 P(x > 8) = P(x=9) + P(x=10) + P(x=11) + ...+ P(x=20) =
  • 6. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 6 .065 + .031 + .012 + .004 + .001 + .000 = .113 c) n = 20 p = .70 P(x < 12) = P(x=11) + P(x=10) + P(x=9) + ... + (Px=0) = .065 + .031 + .012 + .004 + .001 + .000 = .113 d) n = 20 p = .90 P(x < 16) = P(x=16) + P(x=15) + P(x=14) + ...+ P(x=0) = .090 + .032 + .009 + .002 + .000 = .133 e) n = 15 p = .40 P(4 < x < 9) = P(x=4) + P(x=5) + P(x=6) + P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) = .127 + .186 + .207 + .177 + .118 + .061 = .876 f) n = 10 p = .60 P(x > 7) = P(x=7) + P(x=8) + P(x=9) + P(x=10) = .215 + .122 + .040 + .006 = .382 5.7 a) n = 20 p = .70 q = .30 µ = n⋅p = 20(.70) = 14 σ = 2.4)30)(.70(.20 ==⋅⋅ qpn = 2.05 b) n = 70 p = .35 q = .65 µ = n⋅p = 70(.35) = 24.5
  • 7. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 7 σ = 925.15)65)(.35(.70 ==⋅⋅ qpn = 3.99 c) n = 100 p = .50 q = .50 µ = n⋅p = 100(.50) = 50 σ = 25)50)(.50(.100 ==⋅⋅ qpn = 5 5.8 a) n = 6 p = .70 x Prob 0 .001 1 .010 2 .060 3 .185 4 .324 5 .303 6 .118 b) n = 20 p = .50 x Prob 0 .000 1 .000 2 .000 3 .001 4 .005 5 .015 6 .037 7 .074
  • 8. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 8 8 .120 9 .160 10 .176 11 .160 12 .120 13 .074 14 .037 15 .015 16 .005 17 .001 18 .000 19 .000 20 .000 c) n = 8 p = .80 x Prob 0 .000 1 .000 2 .001 3 .009 4 .046 5 .147 6 .294 7 .336 8 .168
  • 9. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 9 5.9 a) n = 20 p = .78 x = 14 20C14 (.78)14 (.22)6 = 38,760(.030855)(.00011338) = .1356 b) n = 20 p = .75 x = 20 20C20 (.75)20 (.25)0 = (1)(.0031712)(1) = .0032 c) n = 20 p = .70 x < 12 Use table A.2: P(x=0) + P(x=1) + . . . + P(x=11)= .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .000 + .001 + .004 + .012 + .031 + .065 = .113 5.10 n = 16 p = .40 P(x > 9): from Table A.2: x Prob 9 .084 10 .039 11 .014 12 .004 13 .001 .142
  • 10. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 10 P(3 < x < 6): x Prob 3 .047 4 .101 5 .162 6 .198 .508 n = 13 p = .88 P(x = 10) = 13C10(.88)10 (.12)3 = 286(.278500976)(.001728) = .1376 P(x = 13) = 13C13(.88)13 (.12)0 = (1)(.1897906171)(1) = .1898 Expected Value = µ = n p = 13(.88) = 11.44 5.11 n = 25 P = .60 a) x > 15 P(x > 15) = P(x = 15) + P(x = 16) + · · · + P(x = 25) Using Table A.2 n = 25, p = .80 x Prob 15 .161 16 .151 17 .120 18 .080 19 .044 20 .020 21 .007 22 .002 .585 b) x > 20 from a): P(x > 20) = P(x = 21) + P(x = 22) + P(x = 23) + P(x = 24) + P(x = 25) = .007 + .002 + .000 + .000 + .000 = .009
  • 11. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 11 c) P(x < 10) from Table A.2, x Prob. 9 .009 8 .003 7 .001 <6 .000 .013 5.12 The highest probability values are for x = 15, 16, 14, 17, 13, 18, and 12. The expected value is 25(.60) = 15. The standard deviation is 2.45. 15 + 2(2.45) = 15 + 4.90 gives a range that goes from 10.10 to 19.90. From table A.2, the sum of the probabilities of the values in this range (11 through 19) is .936 or 93.6% of the values which compares quite favorably with the 95% suggested by the empirical rule. 5.13 n = 15 p = .20 a) P(x = 5) = 15C5(.20)5 (.80)10 = 3003(.00032)(.1073742) = .1032 b) P(x > 9): Using Table A.2 P(x = 10) + P(x = 11) + . . . + P(x = 15) =
  • 12. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 12 .000 + .000 + . . . + .000 = .000 c) P(x = 0) = 15C0(.20)0 (.80)15 = (1)(1)(.035184) = .0352 d) P(4 < x < 7): Using Table A.2 P(x = 4) + P(x = 5) + P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) = .188 + .103 + .043 + .014 = .348 e) 5.14 n = 18 a) p =.30 µ = 18(.30) = 5.4 p = .34 µ = 18(.34) = 6.12 b) P(x > 8) n = 18 p = .30 from Table A.2 x Prob 8 .081 9 .039 10 .015 11 .005 12 .001 .141
  • 13. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 13 c) n = 18 p = .34 P(2 < x < 4) = P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) = 18C2(.34)2 (.66)16 + 18C3(.34)3 (.66)15 + 18C4(.34)4 (.66)14 = .0229 + .0630 + .1217 = .2076 d) n = 18 p = .30 x = 0 18C0(.30)0 (.70)18 = .00163 n = 18 p = .34 x = 0 18C0(.34)0 (.66)18 = .00056 The probability that none are in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 is higher because there is a smaller percentage in that category which is closer to zero. 5.15 a) Prob(x=5λ = 2.3)= (2.35 )(e-2.3 ) = (64.36343)(.1002588) = .0538 5! (120) b) Prob(x=2λ = 3.9) = (3.92 )(e-3.9 ) = (15.21)(.02024) = .1539 2! (2) c) Prob(x < 3λ = 4.1) = Prob(x=3) + Prob(x=2) + Prob(x=1) + Prob(x=0) = (4.13 )(e-4.1 ) = (68.921)(.016574) = .1904 3! 6 + (4.12 )(e-4.1 ) = (16.81)(.016573) = .1393 2! 2 + (4.11 )(e-4.1 ) = (4.1)(.016573) = .0679 1! 1
  • 14. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 14 + (4.10 )(e-4.1 ) = (1)(.016573) = .0166 0! 1 .1904 + .1393 + .0679 + .0166 = .4142 d) Prob(x=0λ = 2.7) = (2.70 )(e-2.7 ) = (1)(.0672) = .0672 0! 1 e) Prob(x=1 λ = 5.4)= (5.41 )(e-5.4 ) = (5.4)(.0045) = .0244 1! 1 f) Prob(4 < x < 8 λ = 4.4) = Prob(x=5 λ = 4.4) + Prob(x=6 λ = 4.4) + Prob(x=7 λ = 4.4)= (4.45 )(e-4.4 ) + (4.46 )(e-4.4 ) + (4.47 )(e-4.4 ) = 5! 6! 7! (1649.162)(.012277) + (7256.314)(.012277) + (31927.781)(.012277) 120 720 5040 = .1687 + .1237 + .0778 = .3702 5.16 a) Prob(x=6 λ = 3.8) = .0936 b) Prob(x>7 λ = 2.9): x Prob 8 .0068 9 .0022 10 .0006 11 .0002 12 .0000 x > 7 .0098
  • 15. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 15 c) Prob(3 < x < 9 λ = 4.2)= x Prob 3 .1852 4 .1944 5 .1633 6 .1143 7 .0686 8 .0360 9 .0168 3 < x < 9 .7786 d) Prob(x=0 λ = 1.9) = .1496 e) Prob(x < 6 λ = 2.9)= x Prob 0 .0050 1 .1596 2 .2314 3 .2237 4 .1622 5 .0940 6 .0455 x < 6 .9214 f) Prob(5 < x < 8 λ = 5.7) = x Prob 6 .1594 7 .1298 8 .0925 5 < x < 8 .3817 5.17 a) λ = 6.3 mean = 6.3 Standard deviation = 3.6 = 2.51 x Prob 0 .0018 1 .0116 2 .0364 3 .0765 4 .1205 5 .1519 6 .1595
  • 16. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 16 7 .1435 8 .1130 9 .0791 10 .0498 11 .0285 12 .0150 13 .0073 14 .0033 15 .0014 16 .0005 17 .0002 18 .0001 19 .0000 b) λ = 1.3 mean = 1.3 standard deviation = 3.1 = 1.14 x Prob 0 .2725 1 .3542 2 .2303 3 .0998 4 .0324 5 .0084 6 .0018 7 .0003 8 .0001 9 .0000
  • 17. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 17 c) λ = 8.9 mean = 8.9 standard deviation = 9.8 = 2.98 x Prob 0 .0001 1 .0012 2 .0054 3 .0160 4 .0357 5 .0635 6 .0941 7 .1197 8 .1332 9 .1317 10 .1172 11 .0948 12 .0703 13 .0481 14 .0306 15 .0182 16 .0101 17 .0053 18 .0026 19 .0012 20 .0005 21 .0002 22 .0001
  • 18. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 18 d) λ = 0.6 mean = 0.6 standard deviation = 6.0 = .775 x Prob 0 .5488 1 .3293 2 .0988 3 .0198 4 .0030 5 .0004 6 .0000 5.18 λ = 2.84 minutes a) Prob(x=6 λ = 2.8) from Table A.3 .0407
  • 19. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 19 b) Prob(x=0 λ = 2.8) = from Table A.3 .0608 c) Unable to meet demand if x > 44 minutes: x Prob. 5 .0872 6 .0407 7 .0163 8 .0057 9 .0018 10 .0005 11 .0001 x > 4 .1523 .1523 probability of being unable to meet the demand. Probability of meeting the demand = 1 - (.1523) = .8477 15.23% of the time a second window will need to be opened. d) λ = 2.8 arrivals4 minutes Prob(x=3) arrivals2 minutes = ?? Lambda must be changed to the same interval (½ the size) New lambda=1.4 arrivals2 minutes Prob(x=3)  λ=1.4) = from Table A.3 = .1128 Prob(x > 5 8 minutes) = ?? Lambda must be changed to the same interval(twice the size): New lambda= 5.6 arrivals8 minutes Prob(x > 5  λ = 5.6):
  • 20. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 20 From Table A.3: x Prob. 5 .1697 6 .1584 7 .1267 8 .0887 9 .0552 10 .0309 11 .0157 12 .0073 13 .0032 14 .0013 15 .0005 16 .0002 17 .0001 x > 5 .6579 5.19 λ = Σx/n = 126/36 = 3.5 Using Table A.3 a) P(x = 0) = .0302 b) P(x > 6) = P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) + . . . = .0771 + .0385 + .0169 + .0066 + .0023 + .0007 + .0002 + .0001 = .1424 c) P(x < 4 10 minutes) λ = 7.0 10 minutes P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) = .0009 + .0064 + .0223 + .0521 = .0817 d) P(3 < x < 6 10 minutes) λ = 7.0  10 minutes P(3 < x < 6) = P(x = 3) + P(x = 4) + P(x = 5) + P(x = 6) = .0521 + .0912 + .1277 + .1490 = .42
  • 21. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 21 e) P(x = 8  15 minutes) λ = 10.5  15 minutes P(x = 8  15 minutes) = !8 ))(5.10( ! 5.108 −− = ⋅ e X eX λ λ = .1009 5.20 λ = 5.6 days3 weeks a) Prob(x=0  λ = 5.6): from Table A.3 = .0037 b) Prob(x=6  λ = 5.6): from Table A.3 = .1584 c) Prob(x > 15  λ = 5.6): x Prob. 15 .0005 16 .0002 17 .0001 x > 15 .0008 Because this probability is so low, if it actually occurred, the researcher would actually have to question the Lambda value as too low for this period. 5.21 λ = 0.6 trips 1 year a) Prob(x=0  λ = 0.6): from Table A.3 = .5488 b) Prob(x=1  λ = 0.6): from Table A.3 = .3293 c) Prob(x > 2  λ = 0.6):
  • 22. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 22 from Table A.3 x Prob. 2 .0988 3 .0198 4 .0030 5 .0004 6 .0000 x > 2 .1220 d) Prob(x < 3  3 year period): The interval length has been increased (3 times) New Lambda = λ = 1.8 trips3 years Prob(x < 3  λ = 1.8): from Table A.3 x Prob. 0 .1653 1 .2975 2 .2678 3 .1607 x < 3 .8913 e) Prob(x=4  6 years): The interval has been increased (6 times) New Lambda = λ = 3.6 trips6 years Prob(x=4  λ = 3.6): from Table A.3 = .1912 5.22 λ = 1.2 collisions4 months a) Prob(x=0  λ = 1.2): from Table A.3 = .3012 b) Prob(x=2 2 months):
  • 23. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 23 The interval has been decreased (by ½) New Lambda = λ = 0.6 collisions2 months Prob(x=2  λ = 0.6): from Table A.3 = .0988 c) Prob (x < 1 collision6 months): The interval length has been increased (by 1.5) New Lambda = λ = 1.8 collisions6 months Prob(x < 1 λ = 1.8): from Table A.3 x Prob. 0 .1653 1 .2975 x < 1 .4628 The result is likely to happen almost half the time (46.26%). Ship channel and weather conditions are about normal for this period. Safety awareness is about normal for this period. There is no compelling reason to reject the lambda value of 0.6 collisions per 4 months based on an outcome of 0 or 1 collisions per 6 months. 5.23 λ = 1.2 penscarton a) Prob(x=0  λ = 1.2): from Table A.3 = .3012 b) Prob(x > 8  λ = 1.2): from Table A.3 = .0000 c) Prob(x > 3  λ = 1.2): from Table A.3 x Prob. 4 .0260 5 .0062
  • 24. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 24 6 .0012 7 .0002 8 .0000 x > 3 .0336 5.24 n = 100,000 p = .00004 Prob(x > 7 n = 100,000 p = .00004): λ = µ = n⋅p = 100,000(.00004) = 4.0 Since n > 20 and n⋅p < 7, the Poisson approximation to this binomial problem is close enough. Prob(x > 7  λ = 4): Using Table A.3 x Prob. 7 .0595 8 .0298 9 .0132 10 .0053 11 .0019 12 .0006 13 .0002 14 .0001 x > 7 .1106 Prob(x>10  λ = 4): Using Table A.3 x Prob. 11 .0019 12 .0006 13 .0002 14 .0001 x > 10 .0028 Since getting more than 10 is a rare occurrence, this particular geographic region appears to have a higher average rate than other regions. An investigation of particular characteristics of this region might be warranted.
  • 25. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 25 5.25 p = .009 n = 200 Use the Poisson Distribution: λ = n⋅p = 200(.009) = 1.8 P(x > 6) from Table A.3 = P(x = 6) + P(x = 7) + P(x = 8) + P(x = 9) + . . . = .0078 + .0020 + .0005 + .0001 = .0104 P(x > 10) = .0000 P(x = 0) = .1653 P(x < 5) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P( x = 3) + P(x = 4) = .1653 + .2975 + .2678 + .1607 + .0723 = .9636 5.26 n = 300, p = .01, λ = n(p) = 300(.01) = 3 a) Prob(x = 5): Using λ = 3 and Table A.3 = .1008 b) Prob (x < 4) = Prob.(x = 0) + Prob.(x = 1) + Prob.(x = 2) + Prob.(x = 3) = .0498 + .1494 + .2240 + .2240 = .6472 c) The expected number = µ = λ = 3 5.27 a) Prob(x = 3 N = 11, A = 8, n = 4) 330 )3)(56( 411 1338 = ⋅ C CC = .5091 b) Prob(x < 2)N = 15, A = 5, n = 6) Prob(x = 1) + Prob (x = 0) = 615 51015 C CC ⋅ + 615 61005 C CC ⋅ = 5005 )210)(1( 5005 )252)(5( +
  • 26. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 26 .2517 + .0420 = .2937 c) Prob(x=0 N = 9, A = 2, n = 3) 84 )35)(1( 39 3702 = ⋅ C CC = .4167 d) Prob(x > 4 N = 20, A = 5, n = 7) = Prob(x = 5) + Prob(x = 6) + Prob(x = 7) = 720 21555 C CC ⋅ + 720 11565 C CC ⋅ + 720 01575 C CC ⋅ = 77520 )105)(1( + 5C6 (impossible) + 5C7(impossible) = .0014 5.28 N = 19 n = 6 a) P(x = 1 private) A = 11 132,27 )56)(11( 619 58111 = ⋅ C CC = .0227 b) P(x = 4 private) 132,27 )28)(330( 619 28411 = ⋅ C CC = .3406 c) P(x = 6 private) 132,27 )1)(462( 619 08611 = ⋅ C CC = .0170 d) P(x = 0 private) 132,27 )28)(1( 619 68011 = ⋅ C CC = .0010
  • 27. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 27 5.29 N = 17 A = 8 n = 4 a) P(x = 0) = 417 4908 C CC ⋅ = 2380 )126)(1( = .0529 b) P(x = 4) = 417 0948 C CC ⋅ = 2380 )1)(70( = .0294 c) P(x = 2 non computer) = 417 2829 C CC ⋅ = 2380 )28)(36( = .4235 5.30 N = 20 A = 16 white N - A = 4 red n = 5 a) Prob(x = 4 white) = 520 14416 C CC ⋅ = 15504 )4)(1820( = .4696 b) Prob(x = 4 red) = 520 11644 C CC ⋅ = 15504 )16)(1( = .0010 c) Prob(x = 5 red) = 520 01654 C CC ⋅ = .0000 because 4C5 is impossible to determine The participant cannot draw 5 red beads if there are only 4 to draw from. 5.31 N = 10 n = 4 a) A = 3 x = 2 210 )21)(3( 410 2723 = ⋅ C CC = .30 b) A = 5 x = 0 210 )5)(1( 410 4505 = ⋅ C CC = .0238 c) A = 5 x = 3 210 )5)(10( 410 1535 = ⋅ C CC = .2381
  • 28. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 28 5.32 N = 16 A = 4 defective n = 3 a) Prob(x = 0) = 560 )220)(1( 316 31204 = ⋅ C CC = .3929 b) Prob(x = 3) = 560 )1)(4( 316 01234 = ⋅ C CC = .0071 c) Prob(x > 2) = Prob(x=2) + Prob(x=3) = 316 11224 C CC ⋅ + .0071 (from part b.) = 560 )12)(6( + .0071 = .1286 + .0071 = .1357 d) Prob(x < 1) = Prob(x=1) + Prob(x=0) = 316 21214 C CC ⋅ + .3929 (from part a.) = 560 )66)(4( + .3929 = .4714 + .3929 = .8643 5.33 N = 18 A = 11 Hispanic n = 5 Prob(x < 1) = Prob(1) + Prob(0) = 518 47111 C CC ⋅ + 518 57011 C CC ⋅ = 8568 )21)(1( 8568 )35)(11( + = .0449 + .0025 = .0474 It is fairly unlikely that these results occur by chance. A researcher might investigate further the causes of this result. Were officers selected based on leadership, years of service, dedication, prejudice, or what? 5.34 a) Prob(x=4 n = 11 and p = .23) 11C4(.23)4 (.77)7 = 330(.0028)(.1605) = .1482 b) Prob(x > 1n = 6 and p = .50) = 1 - Prob(x < 1) = 1 - Prob(x = 0) = 1-6C0(.50)0 (.50)6 = 1-(1)(1)(.0156) = .9844
  • 29. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 29 c) Prob(x > 7 n = 9 and p = .85) = Prob(x = 8) + Prob(x = 9) = 9C8(.85)8 (.15)1 + 9C9(.85)9 (.15)0 = (9)(.2725)(.15) + (1)(.2316)(1) = .3679 + .2316 = .5995 d) Prob(x < 3 n = 14 and p = .70) = Prob(x = 3) + Prob(x = 2) + Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) = 14C3(.70)3 (.30)11 + 14C2(.70)2 (.30)12 + 14C1(.70)1 (.30)13 + 14C0(.70)0 (.30)14 = (364)(.3430)(.00000177) + (91)(.49)(.000000047)= (14)(.70)(.00000016) + (1)(1)(.000000047) = .0002 + .0000 + .0000 + .0000 = .0002 5.35 a) Prob(x = 14 n = 20 and p = .60) = .124 b) Prob(x < 5 n = 10 and p =.30) = Prob(x = 4) + Prob(x = 3) + Prob(x = 2) + Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x=0) = x Prob. 0 .028 1 .121 2 .233 3 .267 4 .200 x < 5 .849 c) Prob(x > 12 n = 15 and p = .60) = Prob(x = 12) + Prob(x = 13) + Prob(x = 14) + Prob(x = 15) x Prob. 12 .063 13 .022
  • 30. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 30 14 .005 15 .000 x > 12 .090 d) Prob(x > 20 n = 25 and p = .40) = Prob(x = 21) + Prob(x = 22) + Prob(x = 23) + Prob(x = 24) + Prob(x=25) = x Prob. 21 .000 22 .000 23 .000 24 .000 25 .000 x > 20 .000 5.36 a) Prob(x=4  λ = 1.25) (1.254 )(e-1.25 ) = (2.4414)(.2865) = .0291 4! 24 b) Prob(x < 1 λ = 6.37) = Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) = (6.37)1 (e-6.37 ) + (6.37)0 (e-6.37 ) = (6.37)(.0017) + (1)(.0017) = 1! 0! 1 1 .0109 + .0017 = .0126 c) Prob(x > 5 λ = 2.4) = Prob(x = 6) + Prob(x = 7) + ... = (2.4)6 (e-2.4 ) + (2.4)7 (e-2.4 ) + (2.4)8 (e-2.4) + (2.4)9 (e-2.4) + (2.4)10 (e-2.4 ) + ... 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! .0241 + .0083 + .0025 + .0007 + .0002 = .0358 for values x > 11 the probabilities are each .0000 when rounded off to 4 decimal places.
  • 31. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 31 5.37 a) Prob(x = 3  λ = 1.8) = .1607 b) Prob(x < 5 λ = 3.3) = Prob(x = 4) + Prob(x = 3) + Prob(x = 2) + Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) = x Prob. 0 .0369 1 .1217 2 .2008 3 .2209 4 .1823 x < 5 .7626 c) Prob(x > 3 λ = 2.1) = x Prob. 3 .1890 4 .0992 5 .0417 6 .0146 7 .0044 8 .0011 9 .0003 10 .0001 11 .0000 x > 5 .3504 d) Prob(2 < x < 5 λ = 4.2) = Prob(x=3) + Prob(x=4) + Prob(x=5) = x Prob. 3 .1852 4 .1944 5 .1633 2 < x < 5 .5429 5.38 a) Prob(x = 3 N = 6, n = 4, A = 5) = 15 )1)(10( 46 1135 = ⋅ C CC = .6667
  • 32. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 32 b) Prob(x < 1 N = 10, n = 3, A = 5) = Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) = 310 2515 C CC ⋅ + 310 3505 C CC ⋅ = 120 )10)(1( 120 )10)(5( + = .4167 + .0833 = .5000 c) Prob(x > 2  N = 13, n = 5, A = 3) = Prob(x=2) + Prob(x=3) Note: only 3 x's in population 513 31023 C CC ⋅ + 513 21033 C CC ⋅ = 1287 )45)(1( 1287 )120)(3( + = .2797 + .0350 = .3147 5.39 n = 25 p = .20 retired from Table A.2: P(x = 7) = .111 P(x > 10): P(x = 10) + P(x = 11) + . . . + P(x = 25) = .012 + .004 + .001 = .017 Expected Value = µ = n⋅p = 25(.20) = 5 n = 20 p = .40 mutual funds P(x = 8) = .180 P(x < 6) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + . . . + P(x = 5) = .000 + .000 + .003 +.012 + .035 + .075 = .125 P(x = 0) = .000 P(x > 12) = P(x = 12) + P(x = 13) + . . . + P(x = 20) = .035 + .015 + .005 + .001 = .056 x = 8 Expected Number = µ = n p = 20(.40) = 8
  • 33. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 33 5.40 λ = 3.2 cars2 hours a) Prob(x=3) cars per 1 hour) = ?? The interval has been decreased by ½. The new λ = 1.6 cars1 hour. Prob(x = 3 λ = 1.6) = (from Table A.3) .1378 b) Prob(x = 0 cars per ½ hour) = ?? The interval has been decreased by ¼ the original amount. The new λ = 0.8 cars½ hour. Prob(x = 0 λ = 0.8) = (from Table A.3) .4493 c) Prob(x > 5 λ = 1.6) = (from Table A.3) x Prob. 5 .0176 6 .0047 7 .0011 8 .0002 .0236 Either a rare event occurred or perhaps the long-run average, λ, has changed (increased). 5.41 N = 32 A = 10 n = 12 a) P(x = 3) = 1232 922310 C CC ⋅ = 840,792,225 )420,497)(120( = .2644 b) P(x = 6) = 1232 622610 C CC ⋅ = 840,792,225 )613,74)(210( = .0694 c) P(x = 0) = 1232 1222010 C CC ⋅ = 840,792,225 )646,646)(1( = .0029
  • 34. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 34 d) A = 22 P(7 < x < 9) = 1232 510722 C CC ⋅ + 1232 410822 C CC ⋅ + 1232 310922 C CC ⋅ = 840,792,225 )120)(420,497( 840,792,225 )210)(770,319( 840,792,225 )252)(544,170( ++ = .1903 + .2974 + .2644 = .7521 5.42 λ = 1.4 defects 1 lot If x > 3, buyer rejects If x < 3, buyer accepts Prob(x < 3 λ = 1.4) = (from Table A.3) x Prob. 0 .2466 1 .3452 2 .2417 3 .1128 x < 3 .9463 5.43 a) n = 20 and p = .25 The expected number = µ = n⋅p = (20)(.25) = 5.00 b) Prob(x < 1 n = 20 and p = .25) = Prob(x = 1) + Prob(x = 0) = 20C1(.25)1 (.75)19 + 20C0(.25)0 (.75)20 = (20)(.25)(.00423) + (1)(1)(.0032) = .0212 +. 0032 = .0244 Since the probability is so low, the population of your state may have a lower percentage of chronic heart conditions than those of other states. 5.44 a) Prob(x > 7 n = 10 and p = .70) = (from Table A.2): x Prob. 8 .233 9 .121 10 .028 x > 7 .382
  • 35. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 35 Expected number = µ = n⋅p = 10(.70) = 7 b) Expected number = µ = n⋅p = 15 (1/3) = 5 Prob(x=0⋅ n = 15 and p = 1/3) = 15C0( )0 ( )15 = .0023 c) Prob(x = 7 n = 7 and p = .53) = 7C7(.53)7 (.47)0 = .0117 Probably the 53% figure is too low for this population since the probability of this occurrence is so low (.0117). 5.45 n = 12 a.) Prob(x = 0 long hours): p = .20 12C0(.20)0 (.80)12 = .0687 b.) Prob(x > 6) long hours): p = .20 Using Table A.2: .016 + .003 + .001 = .020 c) Prob(x = 5 good financing): p = .25, 12C5(.25)5 (.75)7 = .1032 d.) p = .19 (good plan), expected number = µ = n(p) = 12(.19) = 2.28 5.46 n = 100,000 p = .000014 Worked as a Poisson: λ = n⋅p = 100,000(.000014) = 1.4 a) P(x = 5): from Table A.3 = .0111 b) P(x = 0):
  • 36. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 36 from Table A.3 = .2466 c) P(x > 6): (from Table A.3) x Prob 7 .0005 8 .0001 .0006 5.47 Prob(x < 3) n = 8 and p = .60) = (from Table A.2) x Prob. 0 .001 1 .008 2 .041 3 .124 x < 3 .174 17.4% of the time in a sample of eight, three or fewer customers are walk-ins by chance. Other reasons for such a low number of walk-ins might be that she is retaining more old customers than before or perhaps a new competitor is attracting walk-ins away from her. 5.48 n = 25 p = .20 a) Prob(x = 8 n = 25 and p = .20) = (from Table A.2) .062 b) Prob(x > 10) n=25 and p = .20) = (from Table A.2) x Prob. 11 .004 12 .001 13 .000 x > 10 .005 c) Since such a result would only occur 0.5% of the time by chance, it is likely that the analyst's list was not representative of the entire state of Idaho or the 20% figure for the Idaho census is not correct. 5.49 λ = 0.6 flats2000 miles Prob(x = 0 λ = 0.6) = (from Table A.3) .5488
  • 37. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 37 Prob(x > 3 λ = 0.6) = (from Table A.3) x Prob. 3 .0198 4 .0030 5 .0004 x > 3 .0232 One trip is independent of the other. Let F = flat tire and NF = no flat tire P(NF1 _ NF2) = P(NF1) ⋅ P(NF2) P(NF) = .5488 P(NF1 _ NF2) = (.5488)(.5488) = .3012 5.50 N = 25 n = 8 a) P(x = 1 in NY) A = 4 825 72114 C CC ⋅ = 575,081,1 )280,116)(4( = .4300 b) P(x = 4 in top 10) A = 10 575,081,1 )1365(210( 825 415410 = ⋅ C CC = .2650 c) P(x = 0 in California) A = 4 575,081,1 )490,203)(1( 825 82104 = ⋅ C CC = .1881 d) P(x = 3 with M) A = 3 575,081,1 )334,26)(1( 825 52233 = ⋅ C CC = .0243 5.51 N = 24 n = 6 A = 8
  • 38. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 38 a) P(x = 6) = 596,134 )1)(28( 624 01668 = ⋅ C CC = .0002 b) P(x = 0) = 596,134 )8008)(1( 624 61608 = ⋅ C CC = .0595 d) A = 16 East Side P(x = 3) = 596,134 )56)(560( 624 38316 = ⋅ C CC = .2330 5.52 n = 25 p = .20 Expected Value = µ = n⋅p = 25(.20) = 5 µ = 25(.20) = 5 σ = )80)(.20(.25=⋅⋅ qpn = 2 P(x > 12) = (from Table A.2) x Prob 13 .0000 The values for x > 12 are so far away from the expected value that they are very unlikely to occur. P(x = 14) = 25C14(.20)14 (.80)11 = .000063 which is very unlikely. If this value (x = 14) actually occurred, one would doubt the validity of the p = .20 figure or one would have experienced a very rare event.
  • 39. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 39 5.53 λ = 2.4 calls1 minute a) Prob(x = 0 λ = 2.4) = (from Table A.3) .0907 b) Can handle x < 5 calls Cannot handle x > 5 calls Prob(x > 5 λ = 2.4) = (from Table A.3) x Prob. 6 .0241 7 .0083 8 .0025 9 .0007 10 .0002 11 .0000 x > 5 .0358 c) Prob(x = 3 calls 2 minutes) The interval has been increased 2 times. New Lambda = λ = 4.8 calls2 minutes. from Table A.3: .1517 d) Prob(x < 1 calls15 seconds): The interval has been decreased by ¼. New Lambda = λ = 0.6 calls15 seconds. Prob(x < 1 λ = 0.6) = (from Table A.3) Prob(x = 1) = .3293 Prob(x = 0) = .5488 Prob(x < 1) = .8781
  • 40. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 40 5.54 n = 160 p = .01 Working this problem as a Poisson problem: a) Expected number = µ = n(p) = 160(.01) = 1.6 b) P(x > 8): Using Table A.3: x Prob. 8 .0002 9 .0000 .0002 c) P(2 < x < 6): Using Table A.3: x Prob. 2 .2584 3 .1378 4 .0551 5 .0176 6 .0047 P(2 < x < 6) .4736 5.55 p = .005 n = 1,000 λ = n⋅p = (1,000)(.005) = 5 a) P(x < 4) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + P(x = 2) + P(x = 3) = .0067 + .0337 + .0842 + .1404 = .265 b) P(x > 10) = P(x = 11) + P(x = 12) + . . . = .0082 + .0034 + .0013 + .0005 + .0002 = .0136 c) P(x = 0) = .0067
  • 41. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 41 5.56 n = 8 P = .36 x = 0 Women 8C0(.36)0 (.64)8 = (1)(1)(.0281475) = .0281 It is unlikely that a company would randomly hire 8 physicians from the U.S. pool and none of them would be female. If this actually happened, the figures might be used as evidence in a lawsuit. 5.57 N = 32 a) n = 5 x = 3 A = 10 376,201 )231)(120( 532 222310 = ⋅ C CC = .1377 b) n = 8 x < 2 A = 6 832 82606 C CC ⋅ + 832 72616 C CC ⋅ + 832 62626 C CC ⋅ = 300,518,10 )760,38)(15( 300,518,10 )800,657)(6( 300,518,10 )275,562,1)(1( ++ = .1485 + .3752 + .0553 = .5790 c) n = 5 x = 2 p = 3/26 = .1154 5C2(.1154)2 (.8846)3 = (10)(.013317)(.692215) = .0922 5.58 N = 14 n = 4 a) P(x = 4 N = 14, n = 4, A = 10 Northside) 1001 )1((210( 414 04410 = ⋅ C CC = .2098 b) P(x = 4 N = 14, n = 4, A = 4 West) 1001 )1)(1( 414 01044 = ⋅ C CC = .0010 c) P(x = 2 N = 14, n = 4, A = 4 West)
  • 42. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 42 1001 )45)(6( 414 21024 = ⋅ C CC = .2697 5.59 a) λ = 3.841,000 P(x = 0) = !0 84.3 84.30 − ⋅e = .0215 b) λ = 7.682,000 P(x = 6) = 720 )000461975)(.258.195,205( !6 68.7 68.76 = ⋅ − e = .1317 c) λ = 1.61,000 and λ = 4.83,000 from Table A.3: P(x < 7) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) + . . . + P(x = 6) = .0082 + .0395 + .0948 + .1517 + .1820 + .1747 + .1398 = .7907 5.60 This is a binomial distribution with n = 15 and p = .36. µ = n⋅p = 15(.36) = 5.4 σ = )64)(.36(.15 = 1.86 The most likely values are near the mean, 5.4. Note from the printout that the most probable values are at x = 5 and x = 6 which are near the mean. 5.61 This printout contains the probabilities for various values of x from zero to eleven from a Poisson distribution with λ = 2.78. Note that the highest probabilities are at x = 2 and x = 3 which are near the mean. The probability is slightly higher at x = 2 than at x = 3 even though x = 3 is nearer to the mean because of the “piling up” effect of x = 0. 5.62 This is a binomial distribution with n = 22 and p = .64. The mean is n⋅p = 22(.64) = 14.08 and the standard deviation is: σ = )36)(.64(.22=⋅⋅ qpn = 2.25
  • 43. Chapter 5: Discrete Distributions 43 The x value with the highest peak on the graph is at x = 14 followed by x = 15 and x = 13 which are nearest to the mean. 5.63 This is the graph of a Poisson Distribution with λ = 1.784. Note the high probabilities at x = 1 and x = 2 which are nearest to the mean. Note also that the probabilities for values of x > 8 are near to zero because they are so far away from the mean or expected value.