http://kevinoefelein.com I hate to brag, and I hate to say I told you so, but I just can’t help it. What am I talking about? AAPL: Apple Inc. You know, the makers of the iPod and the iPad and iPhone. Yeah those guys. Back on September 24th the stock was trading around 690 and I said to short it. Well today, it’s at 638, down 52 points or around 7.5%. Anyway, that’s not important at all. I didn’t short the stock myself and I didn’t sell any shares. It was academic and meaningless… But it was for a point. My point was that you should run away from the bandwagon as fast as possible. Every time. You see, it was on that morning that I read a report with some statisticians saying the AAPL was going to increase 50% in stock price and be the first trillion dollar company in world history. And I said it was time to sell to get away from the nearly always wrong bandwagon. Anyway, conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. The band wagon is consistently a bad thing. Except for in one case. When you’re leading the bandwagon. Then it’s all sunshine and puppy dogs. When you lead the bandwagon, you make the moves, you set the trends, and you command the big bucks. They say it’s lonely at the top, but they lie. It’s lonely everywhere but the top, and God forbid you’re down, you’ll find no shortage of people looking to kick you. Anyway, that’s not the point. The point is this… I had a couple of flashbacks to the past this morning; both band wagon related. The first was to my junior high and high school days when Michael Jordan was winning 6 championships in 8 years. At the time, everyone I knew was a Bulls fan, and I hated it and them (Knicks fan here). That’s right. Everyone and their mother were Bulls fans. But guess how many are still? NONE! That’s bandwagon mentality. Last flashback… It’s 2003. The Yankees are in the Series with the then Florida Marlins. The Marlins won the World Series in ‘97, then went on to dismantle the team. Anyway, they’re playing the Yanks and all my college football friends from Florida suddenly transformed into Marlins fans…. Overnight. And these are college athletes and sports fans, and you know what? Not one of them could name one player on the Marlins. But they sure were all rooting pretty hard for them. And that’s the bandwagon mentality. When you’re on top and leading the bandwagon, life is good. But don’t ever find yourself following a bandwagon. It’ll lead you straight to the bottom. Just some food for thought.

1. Leading the
Bandwagon

2. Leading the Bandwagon
I hate to brag, and I hate to say I
told you so, but I just can’t help it.

3. Leading the Bandwagon
What am I talking about?

4. Leading the Bandwagon
AAPL: Apple Inc.

5. Leading the Bandwagon
You know, the makers of the iPod
and the iPad and iPhone. Yeah
those guys.

6. Leading the Bandwagon
Back on September 24th the stock
was trading around 690 and I said
to short it.

7. Leading the Bandwagon
Well today, it’s at 638, down 52
points or around 7.5%.

8. Leading the Bandwagon
Anyway, that’s not important at
all. I didn’t short the stock myself
and I didn’t sell any shares. It was
academic and meaningless…

9. Leading the Bandwagon
But it was for a point.

10. Leading the Bandwagon
My point was that you should run
away from the bandwagon as fast
as possible. Every time.

11. Leading the Bandwagon
You see, it was on that morning
that I read a report with some
statisticians saying the AAPL was
going to increase 50% in stock
price…

12. Leading the Bandwagon
And become the first trillion dollar
company in world history.

13. Leading the Bandwagon
And I said it was time to sell to get
away from the nearly always
wrong bandwagon.

14. Leading the Bandwagon
Anyway, conventional wisdom is
almost always wrong. The band
wagon is consistently a bad thing.
Except for in one case.

15. Leading the Bandwagon
When you’re leading the
bandwagon.

16. Leading the Bandwagon
Then it’s all sunshine and puppy
dogs.

17. Leading the Bandwagon
When you lead the bandwagon,
you make the moves, you set the
trends, and you command the big
bucks.

18. Leading the Bandwagon
They say it’s lonely at the top, but
they lie. It’s lonely everywhere
but the top, and God forbid you’re
down, you’ll find no shortage of
people looking to kick you.

19. Leading the Bandwagon
Anyway, that’s not the point.

20. Leading the Bandwagon
The point is this…

21. Leading the Bandwagon
I had a couple of flashbacks this
morning; both band wagon
related.

22. Leading the Bandwagon
The first was to my junior high
and high school days when
Michael Jordan was winning 6
championships in 8 years.

23. Leading the Bandwagon
At the time, everyone I knew was
a Bulls fan, and I hated it and
them (Knicks fan here).

24. Leading the Bandwagon
That’s right. Everyone and their
mother were Bulls fans. But guess
how many still are?

25. Leading the Bandwagon
NONE!

26. Leading the Bandwagon
That’s bandwagon mentality.

27. Leading the Bandwagon
OK. Last flashback…

28. Leading the Bandwagon
It’s 2003. The Yankees are in the
Series with the then Florida
Marlins. If you remember, the
Marlins won the World Series in
‘97, then went on to dismantle
the team.

29. Leading the Bandwagon
Anyway, they’re playing the Yanks
and all my college football friends
from Florida suddenly transform
into Marlins fans…. Overnight.

30. Leading the Bandwagon
And these are college athletes and
sports fans, and you know what?
Not one of them could name one
single player on the Marlins.

31. Leading the Bandwagon
But they sure were all rooting
pretty hard for them.

32. Leading the Bandwagon
And that’s the bandwagon
mentality.

33. Leading the Bandwagon
When you’re on top and leading
the bandwagon, life is good.

34. Leading the Bandwagon
But don’t ever find yourself
following a bandwagon. It’ll lead
you straight to the bottom.

35. Leading the Bandwagon
Or down 7.5% in just two weeks.

36. Leading the Bandwagon
Just some food for thought.

37. Until Next Time…
Until next time,
Kevin Oefelein

38. Leading the Bandwagon
P.S. I had tickets to Game 7 of that
2003 World Series at Yankee
Stadium…

39. Leading the Bandwagon
A game that was never played
(Marlins won in 6).

40. Leading the Bandwagon
Anyway, I had a chance to have
Game 6 tickets too, but chose
Game 7 instead. I missed out.
Don’t you miss out.

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