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Powering Sri Lanka
towards
Sustainability
ANIL CABRAAL, PHD
DIRECTOR, ENERGY FORUM
APRIL 3, 2017
Outline
Commitments and Vision
Long term generation expansion planning
Recent events
Prospects and trends
◦ Renewable energy
◦ Storage technologies
◦ Energy efficiency
◦ Fossil energy
Conclusions
Sri Lanka SDG commitment (2015)
Sri Lanka SDG commitments by 2030
◦ Poverty alleviation (SDG 01)
◦ Achieving food security (SDG 02)
◦ Affordable and Clean Energy (SDG 7)
◦ Universal access
◦ Increase RE use
◦ Double rate of efficiency improvement
◦ Education (SDG 04)
◦ Minimising income disparity (SDG 10)
◦ Urban development (SDG 11)
Presidential Policy Statement 8th
Parliament, Sept 2015
 Meet basic energy needs through renewable energy
 Protecting against rising imported fuel prices
 Include environmental factors in decision making
 Build biomass power plants and benefit rural communities
 Remove subsidies for fossil fuel and support renewable
energy
 Obtain long term concessionary loans for clean energy
from global funds
Sri Lanka Paris Climate Commitment
(Sept 2016 )
 20% GHG emissions reduction from power sector by 2030
compared to CEB LTGEP 2013-2032 baseline
 Proposed Projects
o 514 MW of large scale wind power
o 115 MW of solar power
o 105 MW of biomass power
o 176 MW of mini hydro power
o Demand Side Management (DSM)
o Strengthen energy policies to increase RE from 50% to 60% by 2020
o Convert existing fuel oil based power plants to LNG (New)
o Plus others in other sectors – transport, industry, forestry, waste…
http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Sri%20Lanka%20First/NDCs%20of%20S
ri%20Lanka.pdf
Path to Sustainable Era (2017)
Create enabling environment
to move towards 100%
renewable energy in power
sector.
SLSEA Energy Management
Action Plan (2016-2020)
 Reduce total 2020 energy
demand up to 1,100 GWh/year
 Avoid 400 MW of new
generation
CEB issued the long term generation
expansion plan 2015-34 in July 2015
Long term generation expansion
plan 2015-34 (July 2015)
 By 2034 coal electricity increase 5 times
 Carbon emissions rise 350%
Other pollutions
◦ Particulates (PM) increase 750%
◦ Sulphur dioxide (SO2) reduce by half
◦ Nitrogen oxides (NOx) increase marginally
 Not considered:
◦ Coal ash. 3700 tons/day by 2034
◦ Heavy metal pollution risk – sea and land
◦ Water - thermal and chemical pollution risk
 Renewable energy cost reductions not
considered
PUCSL guidance to CEB (Sept 2016)…
Approved CEB short term 2017-2020 plan
Rejected Sampur coal power plant
Requested new plan for 2018- 2037, with priority to:
◦ Government policy framework
◦ Least cost principles
◦ Demand-Side Management (DSM)
◦ More renewable energy
◦ Improve consideration of environmental, health and other
externalities
◦ Seek wider consultation
Recent positive news … (1)
 President launches one billion Gliricidia trees program
 Sec. Batagoda, MOPRE announces intention to:
• Build LNG terminal in Colombo port
• Replace coal plants with LNG power plants
 Surya Bala Sangramaya
• Add 200 MW of solar by 2020
• Roof-top solar and 60 x 1 MW solar
• LECO low interest loans for roof-top solar
• MOPRE discussing with ADB $175 million solar financing
 CEB 100 MW Mannar wind farm with ADB financing
 Mahaweli Authority: Develop 100 MW floating solar plant
Recent positive news … (2)
 CEB announces NCRE share to rise to 19% by 2019
 PUCSL invites stakeholder feedback on LTGEP 2018-37 planning
 CEB to use improved expansion planning software
 Central Bank joins IFC Sustainable Banking Network to promote
‘Green Financing’
 MOPRE rejects unsolicited 100 MW Korean solar project in
favor of competitive tendering
 News reports of EAM Solar ASA (Norway) unsolicited solar
proposal for 400-900 MW – 12 US cents/kWh
LTGEP 2018-37 planning: Credible
data, realistically used is key!
With credit and apologies to Dilbert
ALL OUR DATA IS
GROSSLY INACCURATE…
BUT I NEED DATA FOR
POWER PLANNING
I HAVE TO GIVE HIM
CREDIT; POWER PLANNING
IS HARDER THAN IT
LOOKS
IF I CONCENTRATE HARD
ENOUGH I CAN FORGET
THAT THE DATA IS BAD,
THEN IF CAN USE IT
Does Sri Lanka have adequate
renewable energy resources?
Readiness to integrate increased variable
renewable energy into power grids
 Is existing planning software capable of handling
variable RE? No, but CEB getting new tools
 Is Sri Lanka power system ready now to absorb large
share of variable renewable energy? Not yet
 Must improve system control and operations
Increased flow of energy from distributed generators
Efficient electricity-demand and grid management
Technologies and procedures for grid stability and control
Increase use energy storage – hydro, batteries
Source: IRENA
Solar costs declining
 CEB 2018-37 LTGEP assumption:
• LKR 210 per watt in 2017
• LKR 135 per watt by 2025
 India 2016-17 Benchmark LKR 120/watt
 India 50 MW floating solar – LKR 177 per watt
 Sri Lanka 1-10 MW-scale solar ~LKR 180/watt now
Wind costs declining
 CEB 2018-37 LTGEP assumption: LKR 230,000/kW
 India 2016-17 benchmark LKR 143,000/kW
 Performance is improving
Storage costs declining
Renewable energy becoming
competitive with fossil energy electricity
Decline in solar electricity prices
Source: World Bank
Due to technology cost drop, low cost financing, favorable solar conditions
and competitive procurements rather than Feed-in-Tariffs
Turkey
USc 6.7/kWh
Biomass power
 President’s 1 billion Gliricidia trees target = ~800 MW
 Is there adequate land and how to access it?
 Farmers need high fuelwood price, but then electricity cost high
 Gliricidia: Net income ~Rs. 16,000/acre/year + leaf income
 Compared to net income for: Coconut – Rs. 30,000/acre/year,
Rubber – Rs. 44,000/acre/year
 Setting target not enough. Need advisory service, R&D for:
 Yield improvement and new high-yield crops
 Better cropping, intercropping and harvesting practices
 Improve technology
 Cost reduction
 UNDP biomass projects help but more needed
Managing solar & wind variability
Solar and wind variability a concern – Short term, diurnal, seasonal
◦ Battery and hydro storage for quick response backup
◦ Hydro, CCGT, GT, IC generators work better with variable RE than coal
◦ Short and long term solar and wind resource forecasting tools improving
◦ Improve system controls and management
Variability also affects demand, fossil fuels and hydro
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2013 IEA:current policies
Oct 2016 W orld Bank
Oct 2014 W orld Bank
Actual
July 2015 W orld Bank
Jan 2016 W orld Bank
US$/tonnominal
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Coal Price ForecastWind Output Variability Hydro Variability
Operation DSM: Improve efficiency & reduce
peak load
 SLSEA issued National Energy Management Plan 2016-2020
 Estimated national cost: Rs. 120 billion over 5 years
 Expects to save 1,104 GWh by 2020 at a cost of Rs. 5.45/kWh
 Reduce peak demand by 400 MW
 Thrust areas:
 Appliance/equipment efficiency in all end-use sectors
 Green buildings
 Smart homes
Must validate coal/LNG assumptions
 Correct capital and O&M cost estimates
 Use realistic duration from approval to start-up
 Norochchalai 23 years, Sampur 10 years and cancelled
 CEB assumes 4 years for new coal plants
 Check plant efficiency assumptions
 Account for uncertainty in LNG/coal fuel prices
 Include credible environmental damage costs
 Reassess valuation of Sri Lankan life: Can we accept scaling value by GDP?
 Include air emissions plus solid waste (ash) and water impacts
 Account for ecological damage
 Realism of use of environmental controls
Sri Lanka must improve its
record of getting climate funds
 Global Environment Facility: Since 1992 only US$ 25 million
 Carbon funds:
• Private sector – US$ ???
• Sri Lanka Carbon Fund and Sri Lanka Climate Fund ???
 Future plans
 ADB to apply to Green Climate Fund for Mannar wind farm
 WB Climate Finance for RE – US$ 12 million was to be approved Oct-2016
 Other suggestions
 Biodiversity fund for burying transmission line through Vankalai Sanctuary for
Mannar wind farm
 SL Climate Fund – Seek carbon financing for portfolio of roof-top solar projects
 Seek Climate and Biodiversity funds for large scale floating solar
 We must do much better!
Conclusions
 Positive signs of Government commitment to clean energy
 Excellent renewable resource potential
 Renewable energy technology costs declining and performance
improving
 There is realization of need to move away from coal power
 Need strong, consistent Government policy, planning and support
 Low cost financing essential
 Must leverage financing from concessional climate funds and
international sources
 CEB must commit to Government policy and give fair chance to
clean energy

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Powering sri lanka towards sustainability (Cabraal 03 Apr17)

  • 1. Powering Sri Lanka towards Sustainability ANIL CABRAAL, PHD DIRECTOR, ENERGY FORUM APRIL 3, 2017
  • 2. Outline Commitments and Vision Long term generation expansion planning Recent events Prospects and trends ◦ Renewable energy ◦ Storage technologies ◦ Energy efficiency ◦ Fossil energy Conclusions
  • 3. Sri Lanka SDG commitment (2015) Sri Lanka SDG commitments by 2030 ◦ Poverty alleviation (SDG 01) ◦ Achieving food security (SDG 02) ◦ Affordable and Clean Energy (SDG 7) ◦ Universal access ◦ Increase RE use ◦ Double rate of efficiency improvement ◦ Education (SDG 04) ◦ Minimising income disparity (SDG 10) ◦ Urban development (SDG 11)
  • 4. Presidential Policy Statement 8th Parliament, Sept 2015  Meet basic energy needs through renewable energy  Protecting against rising imported fuel prices  Include environmental factors in decision making  Build biomass power plants and benefit rural communities  Remove subsidies for fossil fuel and support renewable energy  Obtain long term concessionary loans for clean energy from global funds
  • 5. Sri Lanka Paris Climate Commitment (Sept 2016 )  20% GHG emissions reduction from power sector by 2030 compared to CEB LTGEP 2013-2032 baseline  Proposed Projects o 514 MW of large scale wind power o 115 MW of solar power o 105 MW of biomass power o 176 MW of mini hydro power o Demand Side Management (DSM) o Strengthen energy policies to increase RE from 50% to 60% by 2020 o Convert existing fuel oil based power plants to LNG (New) o Plus others in other sectors – transport, industry, forestry, waste… http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Sri%20Lanka%20First/NDCs%20of%20S ri%20Lanka.pdf
  • 6. Path to Sustainable Era (2017) Create enabling environment to move towards 100% renewable energy in power sector. SLSEA Energy Management Action Plan (2016-2020)  Reduce total 2020 energy demand up to 1,100 GWh/year  Avoid 400 MW of new generation
  • 7. CEB issued the long term generation expansion plan 2015-34 in July 2015
  • 8. Long term generation expansion plan 2015-34 (July 2015)  By 2034 coal electricity increase 5 times  Carbon emissions rise 350% Other pollutions ◦ Particulates (PM) increase 750% ◦ Sulphur dioxide (SO2) reduce by half ◦ Nitrogen oxides (NOx) increase marginally  Not considered: ◦ Coal ash. 3700 tons/day by 2034 ◦ Heavy metal pollution risk – sea and land ◦ Water - thermal and chemical pollution risk  Renewable energy cost reductions not considered
  • 9.
  • 10. PUCSL guidance to CEB (Sept 2016)… Approved CEB short term 2017-2020 plan Rejected Sampur coal power plant Requested new plan for 2018- 2037, with priority to: ◦ Government policy framework ◦ Least cost principles ◦ Demand-Side Management (DSM) ◦ More renewable energy ◦ Improve consideration of environmental, health and other externalities ◦ Seek wider consultation
  • 11. Recent positive news … (1)  President launches one billion Gliricidia trees program  Sec. Batagoda, MOPRE announces intention to: • Build LNG terminal in Colombo port • Replace coal plants with LNG power plants  Surya Bala Sangramaya • Add 200 MW of solar by 2020 • Roof-top solar and 60 x 1 MW solar • LECO low interest loans for roof-top solar • MOPRE discussing with ADB $175 million solar financing  CEB 100 MW Mannar wind farm with ADB financing  Mahaweli Authority: Develop 100 MW floating solar plant
  • 12. Recent positive news … (2)  CEB announces NCRE share to rise to 19% by 2019  PUCSL invites stakeholder feedback on LTGEP 2018-37 planning  CEB to use improved expansion planning software  Central Bank joins IFC Sustainable Banking Network to promote ‘Green Financing’  MOPRE rejects unsolicited 100 MW Korean solar project in favor of competitive tendering  News reports of EAM Solar ASA (Norway) unsolicited solar proposal for 400-900 MW – 12 US cents/kWh
  • 13. LTGEP 2018-37 planning: Credible data, realistically used is key! With credit and apologies to Dilbert ALL OUR DATA IS GROSSLY INACCURATE… BUT I NEED DATA FOR POWER PLANNING I HAVE TO GIVE HIM CREDIT; POWER PLANNING IS HARDER THAN IT LOOKS IF I CONCENTRATE HARD ENOUGH I CAN FORGET THAT THE DATA IS BAD, THEN IF CAN USE IT
  • 14. Does Sri Lanka have adequate renewable energy resources?
  • 15. Readiness to integrate increased variable renewable energy into power grids  Is existing planning software capable of handling variable RE? No, but CEB getting new tools  Is Sri Lanka power system ready now to absorb large share of variable renewable energy? Not yet  Must improve system control and operations Increased flow of energy from distributed generators Efficient electricity-demand and grid management Technologies and procedures for grid stability and control Increase use energy storage – hydro, batteries Source: IRENA
  • 16. Solar costs declining  CEB 2018-37 LTGEP assumption: • LKR 210 per watt in 2017 • LKR 135 per watt by 2025  India 2016-17 Benchmark LKR 120/watt  India 50 MW floating solar – LKR 177 per watt  Sri Lanka 1-10 MW-scale solar ~LKR 180/watt now
  • 17. Wind costs declining  CEB 2018-37 LTGEP assumption: LKR 230,000/kW  India 2016-17 benchmark LKR 143,000/kW  Performance is improving
  • 19. Renewable energy becoming competitive with fossil energy electricity
  • 20. Decline in solar electricity prices Source: World Bank Due to technology cost drop, low cost financing, favorable solar conditions and competitive procurements rather than Feed-in-Tariffs Turkey USc 6.7/kWh
  • 21. Biomass power  President’s 1 billion Gliricidia trees target = ~800 MW  Is there adequate land and how to access it?  Farmers need high fuelwood price, but then electricity cost high  Gliricidia: Net income ~Rs. 16,000/acre/year + leaf income  Compared to net income for: Coconut – Rs. 30,000/acre/year, Rubber – Rs. 44,000/acre/year  Setting target not enough. Need advisory service, R&D for:  Yield improvement and new high-yield crops  Better cropping, intercropping and harvesting practices  Improve technology  Cost reduction  UNDP biomass projects help but more needed
  • 22. Managing solar & wind variability Solar and wind variability a concern – Short term, diurnal, seasonal ◦ Battery and hydro storage for quick response backup ◦ Hydro, CCGT, GT, IC generators work better with variable RE than coal ◦ Short and long term solar and wind resource forecasting tools improving ◦ Improve system controls and management Variability also affects demand, fossil fuels and hydro 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2013 IEA:current policies Oct 2016 W orld Bank Oct 2014 W orld Bank Actual July 2015 W orld Bank Jan 2016 W orld Bank US$/tonnominal 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Coal Price ForecastWind Output Variability Hydro Variability
  • 23. Operation DSM: Improve efficiency & reduce peak load  SLSEA issued National Energy Management Plan 2016-2020  Estimated national cost: Rs. 120 billion over 5 years  Expects to save 1,104 GWh by 2020 at a cost of Rs. 5.45/kWh  Reduce peak demand by 400 MW  Thrust areas:  Appliance/equipment efficiency in all end-use sectors  Green buildings  Smart homes
  • 24. Must validate coal/LNG assumptions  Correct capital and O&M cost estimates  Use realistic duration from approval to start-up  Norochchalai 23 years, Sampur 10 years and cancelled  CEB assumes 4 years for new coal plants  Check plant efficiency assumptions  Account for uncertainty in LNG/coal fuel prices  Include credible environmental damage costs  Reassess valuation of Sri Lankan life: Can we accept scaling value by GDP?  Include air emissions plus solid waste (ash) and water impacts  Account for ecological damage  Realism of use of environmental controls
  • 25. Sri Lanka must improve its record of getting climate funds  Global Environment Facility: Since 1992 only US$ 25 million  Carbon funds: • Private sector – US$ ??? • Sri Lanka Carbon Fund and Sri Lanka Climate Fund ???  Future plans  ADB to apply to Green Climate Fund for Mannar wind farm  WB Climate Finance for RE – US$ 12 million was to be approved Oct-2016  Other suggestions  Biodiversity fund for burying transmission line through Vankalai Sanctuary for Mannar wind farm  SL Climate Fund – Seek carbon financing for portfolio of roof-top solar projects  Seek Climate and Biodiversity funds for large scale floating solar  We must do much better!
  • 26. Conclusions  Positive signs of Government commitment to clean energy  Excellent renewable resource potential  Renewable energy technology costs declining and performance improving  There is realization of need to move away from coal power  Need strong, consistent Government policy, planning and support  Low cost financing essential  Must leverage financing from concessional climate funds and international sources  CEB must commit to Government policy and give fair chance to clean energy

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Ash data http://www.sundaytimes.lk/060813/ft/2.1.html