The Sea Level Projections Of USACE EC 1165-2-211 GEER 2010
1. The Sea Level Projections of USACE EC 1165-2-211 in Context Kris Esterson & Sergey Gorlachev Everglades Project Joint Venture GEER 2010Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration The Greater Everglades: A Living Laboratory of Change July 14, 2010
16. SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida 6 ft ? >3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009) 5 ft SFRPC 10% Worst Case 4 ft EC 1165-2-211 High ? NRC 2nd Biennial Review (2008) “not much more than 3 feet” 3 ft ? SFRPC 50% Moderate Case >1.5’ for ~2059 (Miami-Dade., 2009) EC 1165-2-211 Intermediate 2 ft 1.7’ by 2100 (CGM 16, 2004) 1.09’ (34cm) for 2100 (Yellow Book, 1999) SFRPC 90% Least Case 2.1” to 1’ for 2030 (Broward Co., 2009) 1 ft EC 1165-2-211 Historic 0.8’ by 2050 (CGM 16, 2004) 0.5’ SFWMD Sensitivity Test (Trimble, 1998) 0.48’ (15cm) for 2050 (Yellow Book, 1999) 0 ft 2050 2100 2030 2000
19. Typical SLR Impact Assessment Drivers Stressors Impacts Sea Level Rise Impacts to Natural and Built Environments Increased Global Temperature Greenhouse Gas Emissions Hurricane Intensity Precipitation Change Ocean Acidification CO2
20. Exploring Causation Drivers Stressors Impacts Sea Level Rise Impacts to Natural and Built Environments Increased Global Temperature Greenhouse Gas Emissions Hurricane Intensity Precipitation Change Ocean Acidification CO2
22. Actual Emissions vs IPCC SRES Scenarios EC “High” SLR Projection EC “Intermediate” EC “Historic” Source: Global Carbon Project Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
25. What Climate Effects are Associated with a “High” SLR Scenario? Drivers Stressors Impacts Sea Level Rise Impacts to Natural and Built Environments Increased Global Temperature Greenhouse Gas Emissions Hurricane Intensity Precipitation Change Ocean Acidification CO2 Accelerated SLR cannot occur in a vacuum
27. EC’s Projections & Decision Support Scenarios- End of academic process and start of decision support. Scenarios- Three scenarios with equal chance of occurrence. Not probabilistic- No “most likely” projection. Not predictions/forecasts- They bound rather than hide uncertainty. Multiple futures rather than single line forecasts. No information on “surprises”- Smooth projections don’t describe potential surprises such as leaps in the rate of rise
28. EC’s Projections & Decision Support Not probabilistic- Makes traditional risk assessment unclear. Calculation of traditional risk requires probabilities. Not predictions/forecasts- Makes cost-benefit analysis difficult as benefits may vary depending on SLR scenario. Complicates engineering design. No information on “surprises”- Management strategies (AM, SBP) based on SLR projections may not fully incorporate the range of potential outcomes.