Chatham House conference London, October 6-7, 2008

1. Food Security in the 21 st Century:
Actions for Better Governance, Market
Functioning, and Investment in Public Goods
Joachim von Braun
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Chatham House conference
London, October 6-7, 2008

2. Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

3. The short - and long-term challenges for
food security in the 21st century
1. Poverty and malnutrition
2. Income and population growth
3. Productivity and limited resource base
(land and water)
4. Energy and biofuels
5. Climate change
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

4. Looking beneath the $1 a day line (2004)
Poor
($.75 cents – $1)
485 million people
Medial poor
($.50 cents – $.75 cents)
323 million people
Ultra poor
(less than $.50 cents)
162 million people
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.

5. The ultra poor concentrated in SSA
ECA ECA 0.4 mln MENA
LAC MENA LAC ECA 1. 1 mln MENA LAC
3 mln 0.2 mln
19 mln 3.3 mln 16 . 6 mln 0 . 9 mln 11.5 mln
EAP
SSA 8.8 mln
EAP 87.0 EAP SSA
109.3 mln 5 1 mln 9 0 . 2 mln SA
mln
19.7 mln
SA SA SSA
263.6 16 2 . 9 mln 121 mln
mln
People living on People living on People living on
$0.75-$1 a day: $0.50-$0.75 a day: <$0.50 a day:
485 million 323 million 162 million
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.

6. Slow progress in hunger reduction
Most
1990 recent*
Proportion of undernourished (%) 18.4 17.0
Underweight in children (%) 28.4 22.5
Under-five mortality rate (%) 9.2 7.1
*Undernourishment: 2007
Underweight: most recent year in 2001-2006
Mortality: 2006
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Sources: FAO 2006 and 2008, UNICEF 2006, WHO 2008.

7. Performance in hunger index and income
Trends in the GHI and GNI per capita (1981, 1992, 1997, 2003)
50
40
Ethiopia
30
GHI
India
20
Ghana
10
China
Brazil
0
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 GNI per capita Source: Wiesmann, IFPRI.

8. Increasing agricultural demand
• Income growth (2005-07 per annum)
- 9% in Asia, 6% in Africa
- 2% in industrialized countries
- slowed down in 2008
• Grains use in ethanol tripled from 2004 to 2008
• Since 2000, global grain use for:
Food 5%, feed 8%
Industrial purposes 38%
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Sources: IMF 2008; IGC 2008; FAO 2008.

9. Increasing competition for land
In the past 12 months land prices in:
• Brazil 16%
• Poland 31%
• UK 47%
• Midwest USA 15%
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

10. Increasing water scarcity
• 1.1 billion people do not have access to safe
water
• Large growth in water demand for agriculture
expected in coming decades
• Persistent water shortages in arid and semi-
arid regions
• 10% of world’s diseases could be prevented
with improved water supply, sanitation,
hygiene, resource management
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Sources: World Bank 2008, Prüss-Üstün et al. 2008.

11. Declining productivity growth
6
maize
Average annual growth rate (%)
5 rice
wheat
4
3
2
1
0
1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: World Development Report 2008.

12. Agricultural productivity growth in
developing countries
Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003
%
East Asia 2.7
South Asia 1.0
East Africa 0.4
West Africa 1.6
Southern Africa 1.3
Latin America 2.7
NAWA 1.4
AVERAGE 2.1
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: von Braun et al. 2008.

13. Further threats from climate change
Climate change impact on agric. production, factoring in
carbon fertilization (%)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: Cline 2007.

14. Biofuels: Fundamental change in world
food price determination
Energy prices now strongly affect not just
agric. input prices, but also output prices
via grain and oil seed based biofuel
competition
Elastic energy demand creates price bands
for agricultural commodities
Increased biofuel demand in 2000-07
contributed to 30% of weighted average
increase of global grain prices
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

15. Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

16. Government effectiveness 2007 &
food protests
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi 2008.

17. Number of food protests
by type and gov. effectiveness [As of Aug. 2008]
18 Violent
15 Non-violent
12 8 9 2
3
9
6 11
8 8 9
3
0
0 -25th 25-50th 50-75th 75-100th
From low to high
Source: Protests – news reports;
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Gov. effectiveness classification – Kaufmann et al. 2008.

18. Food security policy tradeoffs
Energy security Political security
risks risks
Food security
risks
+ Mass protests in almost 60 countries
+ Inflation and macro-economic imbalances
+ Environmental sustainability consequences
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

19. Food-related global public goods that must
be addressed by governance architecture
• Global food emergency responses
• Trade and standards
• Competition policy
• International agricultural research
• Food safety and agriculture – health links
• Climate change adaptation and mitigation
• Cross-boundary water
• Natural resources (soils, genetic resources, etc.)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

20. Options for the new global governance
system design
1. Improve existing institutions + umbrella
structure for food and agriculture
2. Form an innovative government - to -
government network
3. Expand current system to explicitly
engage new players
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

21. Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

22. Ad hoc trade measures add up to policy
failures
• Export bans/restrictions:
- Reduce global market size, increase volatility,
and harm import-dependent trading partners
• Categories of speculators:
- Governments, farmers, households, small traders
- Commercial traders
- Non-commercial traders
In Q1 of 2008 futures & options up by 32%
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

23. Distrust of markets leads to overseas
investment in agriculture to secure supply
Recent investments:
• China in Kenya, Nigeria, Philippines, Russia,
Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
• Egypt in Sudan
• Libya in Ukraine
• Saudi Arabia in Thailand; in talks with Sudan,
Egypt, Ukraine, Pakistan, and Turkey
• UAE in Sudan; in talks with Pakistan
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

24. Virtual grain reserve policies needed
1. Independent emergency reserve
• Supplied by major producing countries,
funded by G8+5, managed by WFP
2. Virtual global reserve
• Promissory resources by each participant
• Guided by high-level technical commission
• Intervention through futures markets
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: von Braun and Torero 2008.

25. Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

26. Impacts of high food prices
Impacts driven by initial conditions and
adjustments in labor, finance, and goods markets
• A 50% increase in food prices in Bangladesh
= 25% more prevalence of iron deficiency in
women and children (Bouis 2008)
•Other malign effects: withdrawal of girls from
school, distress sale of productive assets, etc.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

27. Nutrition policies
Priority areas:
• Conditional cash transfers
• Early childhood nutrition
• School feeding
• Employment-based food security programs
Children’s nutrition is crucial for their
productivity and earnings as adults
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

28. Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

29. Underinvestment in agricultural R&D
250
Expenditure by the CGIAR
2005 constant USD, million
200
150
100
50
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SSA Asia Latin America WANA
Not enough resources to work at the frontiers of
science (nanotech, biotech, etc.)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: CGIAR.

30. Doubling agricultural R&D*
*CGIAR investment rises from US$0.5 to US$1.0 billion
Agricultural output growth, 2008-2020 (% pts.)
Allocation for Allocation for
poverty maximum
reduction output
SSA 2.8 1.1
S Asia 2.4 1.8
TOTAL (incl. other
regions) 1.1 1.6
Poverty
reduction (Mil.) 282 204
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: von Braun et al. 2008.

31. “Best Bets” for Research Investments
I. Food for People
Goal Approach Cost Beneficiaries
(Mil. US$)
1 Revitalizing yield growth 150 More than 3
Increasing in intensive cereal billion people
Productivity of systems of Asia
Crop and
2 Livestock Ensuring productive and 73.5 32 million people
Systems resilient small-scale
fisheries
3 Controlling wheat rust 37.5 2.9 billion people
Reducing
4 Vulnerability to Developing vaccine for 10.5 32 million people
Biotic and East Coast Fever in cattle
5 Abiotic Stresses Developing drought- 100 320 million
tolerant maize for Africa people
6 Improving the Scaling up 125 672 million
Nutritional biofortification people
Quality of Food
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

32. “Best Bets” for Research Investments
II. Environment for People
Goal Approach Cost Beneficiaries
(Mil. US$)
7 Addressing Increasing carbon 45 48 million people
Climate sequestration and
Change improving livelihoods of
forest people
8 Increasing the Conducting climate 127.5 1.2 billion people
Resilience of change and adaptation
Agro- research
ecosystems
9 Improving Combining organic and 55 400 million
Soil Fertility inorganic nutrients for people
increased crop
productivity
10 Increasing the Promoting sustainable 24 261 million
Efficiency of groundwater use people
Water Use
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

33. “Best Bets” for Research Investments
III. Innovation for People
Goal Approach Cost Beneficiaries
(Mil. US$)
11 Improving Genetic Enhancing 15 Global impact
Resource germplasm exchange
Management
12 Undertaking Improving market 10.5 45 million people
Institutional information and
Innovation to value chains
Improve Market
Access
13 Ensuring That Including women in 30 200 million
Agricultural extension and people
Production innovation
14 Benefits the Poor, Exploiting 75 Global impact
Especially Women agriculture-health
links to benefit the
poor
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

34. Overview
1. Short- and long-term challenges for
food security
2. Global and national food governance
architecture
3. Food market policy
4. Nutrition and social protection policy
5. Agricultural science policy
6. Priorities for action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

35. Overcoming the information and action gaps
Objectives Activities
1. Information • Internet-based portal
strengthening and • Capacity-strengthening toolbox
monitoring • Facilitation of fast data collection and
estimations
2. Advisory services • Assessment of impacts of high and
for policy actions volatile food prices in countries
• Identification of risks and vulnerabilities
• and related actions
3. Closing important • Studies to strengthen actions and
information gaps implementation in countries
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: Benson et al. IFPRI 2008.

36. Policies for emergency response
and for resilience
1. Nutrition: Expand emergency assistance and
invest in social protection
2. Productivity: Undertake 1) key fast-impact
production programs and 2) scale up agric.
investment and innovation
3. Trade: Re-build trust in regional and global
trade, market-oriented regulation of speculation,
virtual reserves
4. Energy: Change biofuel policies; invest in
innovations that are pro-food and pro-climate
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008

37. High costs with high payoffs
Annual incremental public agric. investment
required to achieve MDG1 by 2015:
• Developing countries = $14 billion
• SSA = $4.8 billion (if countries fulfill
commitment to invest 10% of budgets to
agriculture)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008 Source: Fan and Rosegrant 2008.

38. Implementation of actions must be sound
• Country-driven and -owned programs – with
prioritization and sequencing
• Accountability at international and national
levels: independent monitoring and
assessment
• New global governance architecture of
agriculture, food, and nutrition needed
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, October 2008