Doing projects better doesn't stop at agile. In this presentation I attempt to distill new advances in software development from the field of complexity science. Complexity science is the study of complex systems, like ecosystems, biological systems, economic systems, etc. "Complexity science" is the scientific approach to "systems thinking". It can be used to understand and explain why complex systems behave the way they do. Ken Schwaber, Jim Highsmith and other experts have explained in their books that a lot of agile concepts have been copied from the study of complex systems. However, agile software development has not covered all there is to learn. I will show why practices must be agile (self-organized) *and* formal (controlled), why any software development method is doomed to fail, why managing scope is a too simplistic interpretation of the principle of “embracing change”, why most process improvement initiatives are linear and wrong, and why some sets of practices will be show chaotic behavior when combined.

1. So, Now You’re
an Agilist...
So, Now You’re
an Agilist...
What’s
Next?
Jurgen Appelo
jurgen@noop.nl
version 3

2. Jurgen Appelo
writer, speaker,
entrepreneur...
www.jurgenappelo.com

3. A. psychological profiles
B. leaders vs. rulers
C. organization types
D. organizational structures
E. risk management
F. organizational optimization
G. adaptive methods
H. non-linear improvement
J. tuning process dependencies
K. classification of methods
Agile... what’s next?
My ideas, taken from complexity science

4. photo by blumpy
disclaimer: this is a...
(I sometimes change my opinion)

5. photo by Randy Son of Robert
complexity
what is it?

6. complex systems are
self-organized
photo by judepics

7. photo by ClintJCL
complex systems show
emergent behavior

8. photo by DavidHR
complex systems behave
in a non-linear way

9. photo by Noël Zia Lee
(many) complex systems are
adaptive

10. “For example, an ant colony, the brain, the
immune system, a Scrum team, and New
York City, are self-organizing systems.”
- Ken Schwaber
Agile Software Development with Scrum
“At the heart of complex adaptive systems
theory’s relevance to software development
is the concept of emergence, and the
factors leading to emergent results.”
- Jim Highsmith
Adaptive Software Development

11. some books I read…

12. The 12 Laws of Software Development
Reduce Risk
Measure Performance
Evaluate Feedback
Acquire Knowledge
Manage Uncertainty
Evolve Practices
Motivate People
Empower Teams
Align Results
Optimize Communication
Enforce Discipline
Restrain Growth
which led me to “discover”…

13. ? :
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a complex system
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Agents
Connections
Rules

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#1: the agents must be active

15. photo by MikeBlogs

16. The 1st Law of Software Development
Motivate People

17. diversity
brings robustness and flexibilityphoto by woodleywonderworks

18. what motivates one
demotivates another

20. Don’t agree?
There exists a selection of practices for
which the sum of people’s motivational
balances is optimal.
therefore...
“In a software project the optimal method
is a function of the psychological profiles
of its team members.”
Agreed?
A

21. ? :
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#2: the system controls itself

22. photo by Andrew Mason

23. The 2nd Law of Software Development
Empower Teamsphoto by Elvire.R.

24. ? :
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#3: the system is unaligned
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25. unaligned self-organizationphoto by aviplot

26. aligned self-organizationphoto by john w

27. The 3rd Lawof Software Development
Align Resultsphoto by The Wandering Angel

28. self-organization
this was the result of…
photo by hive

29. photo by Mike Licht
and this too…

30. ordered complex chaotic
empowerment alignment
ordered organizations need empowerment
chaotic organizations need alignment
The Edge of Chaos

31. Don’t agree?Agreed?
“How to implement agile depends on
whether you come from an ordered or
a chaotic situation.”
C

32. ? :
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#4: the agents communicate

33. photo by woodleywonderworks

34. Optimize Communication
The 4th Law of Software Development
photo by foxypar4

35. ? :
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#5: the agents stick to rules
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36. photo by anna pearson

37. The 5th Law of Software Development
Enforce Disciplinephoto by kaibara87

38. ? :
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#6: the system tends to grow
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39. photo by **Maurice**

40. The 6th Law of Software Development
Restrain Growthphoto by mountainamoeba

41. photo by daisybush
Parkinson’s Law
organizations tend to get bigger

42. Cope’s Rule
species tend to get biggerimage by Bogdanov

43. Prevent systems from growing...
1. Limit input and output (keep it simple)
2. Make resources scarce (small budgets)
3. Reduce complexity (remove waste)
4. Clean up regularly (refactoring)

44. ? :
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#7: the system is exposed to risk

45. photo by Aaron Escobar

46. The 7th Law of Software Development
Reduce Riskphoto by rednuht

47. Self-Organized Criticality
a critical state of high riskphoto by lrargerich

48. Don’t agree?Agreed?
Someone needs to try and reduce the
system’s exposure to risk...
“Risk management (mitigating potential
impediments) can best be done by
stepping outside the system.”
E

49. ? :
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#8: the system must know how it’s doing
+/+
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50. The 8th Law of Software Development
Measure Performancephoto by xmatt

51. The Tragedy of the Commons:
using shared resources
photo by ojbyrne

52. optimize the whole

53. optimize the whole
= manage shared resources

54. Don’t agree?Agreed?
“Optimize the whole means to optimize
to the largest possible span of control,
which can mean: don’t optimize the
individual software projects.”
F

55. ? :
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#9: the system responds to the input
+/-
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56. The 9th Law of Software Development
Evaluate Feedbackphoto by JasonRogers

57. ? :
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#10: the system needs ways to learn
!

59. The 10th Law of Software Development
Aquire Knowledgephoto by procsilas

60. ? :
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#11: the system must cope with uncertainty

61. Adaptation to change…

62. The 11th Law of Software Development
Manage Uncertaintyphoto by rednuht

63. The Butterfly Effect
small variations, big impactphoto by Hamed Saber

64. ? :
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#12: the system figures out how to change
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65. photo by Sukanto Debnath
genotype (genes)
phenotype (body)

66. The 12th Law of Software Development
Evolve Practicesphoto by Hulagway

67. fixed practices = not complex at all

68. Don’t agree?Agreed?
Adaptive phenotype...
changing requirements
Adaptive genotype...
changing environment
“Not just the project, but the method
itself must be adaptable too.”
G

69. Fitness Landscapes
evaluating performancephoto by Hulagway

70. “It takes all the
running you can do,
to keep in the
same place.”
- Louis Carroll
Through the Looking Glass
The Red Queen Effect

71. PDCA QIP AIM Pr2imer CPI-7
1. Determine Problems Plan Understand Assess Analysis Managing
2. Set Goals Set Goals Analyze Target Targets
3. Define Metrics Plan
4. Identify
Improvements
Act Choose Improve Analyzing
5. Implement
Improvements
Pilot Improving
6. Execute Processes
(implicit)
Do Execute -- -- --
7. Check
Measurements
Check Analyze Metricate -- Managing
process
improvement

72. ?
linear improvement
stuck on local optimum
or walk through the valley
(things get worse before they get better)

73. Crossover
photo by Kevin N. Murphy
mixing practices from two sources

74. non-linear improvement
find higher peaks by
averaging prior high performers

75. Don’t agree?Agreed?
“Linear improvement works up to a point,
but to find the optimal development
process you need a non-linear approach.”
H

76. moderately connected system
(several optimums)
sparsely connected system
(one optimum)
intensively connected system
(no real optimum)

77. Don’t agree?Agreed?
“Methods are strong when it’s easy to
replace individual practices.”
J

78. sudden burst of solutionsimage by Karl J. Niklas
Punctuated Equilibrium

79. Attractors
convergence of formsphoto by Okko Pyykkö

80. Don’t agree?Agreed?
“We now experience a burst of methods
and tools, due to environmental change.
This could converge into a few main
forms with many small variations.”
K

81. The 12 Laws of Software Development
Reduce Risk
Measure Performance
Evaluate Feedback
Acquire Knowledge
Manage Uncertainty
Evolve Practices
Motivate People
Empower Teams
Align Results
Optimize Communication
Enforce Discipline
Restrain Growth
ANY creative team project

82. A. psychological profiles
B. leaders vs. rulers
C. organization types
D. organizational structures
E. risk management
F. organizational optimization
G. adaptive methods
H. non-linear improvement
J. tuning process dependencies
K. classification of methods
Agile... what’s next?
Don’t agree?Agreed?

83. m30.me/happiness

84. @jurgenappelo
slideshare.net/jurgenappelo
noop.nl
linkedin.com/in/jurgenappelo
jurgen@noop.nl

85. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/
This presentation was inspired by the works of many people, and
I cannot possibly list them all. Though I did my very best to attribute
all authors of texts and images, and to recognize any copyrights, if
you think that anything in this presentation should be changed,
added or removed, please contact me at jurgen@noop.nl.