In this presentation I focus on how climate change, through rising temperatures and heatwaves, is already impacting the urban and social environment in Melbourne. It is a problem we need to address now, at all levels of Government, business and individual action.

1. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
How hot is too hot?
Temperatures and heatwaves
forecast to intensify (Steffen)
Melbourne climate departure is
2045 with BAU (in which the
coldest years will be
consistently hotter than any in
the past 150 years) (Mora)
Can we slow this down?
Can we adapt?
Sources: Steffen,Climate Council (2014), Camilo Mora et al (2013), Own image / Climate Council

2. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Fractional attribution of
Risk:
“ In these simulations with
only natural factors, none of
the nearly 13,000 model
years that we investigated
exceeded our previous
hottest year for Australia,
recorded back in 2005.”
– Sophie Lewis
Source: BOM (2014), Lewis and Karoly (2014)/The Conversation website
How hot is too hot?
2013 hottest year in Australia’s recent temperature record (BOM)

3. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
CO2 emitted by humans is main cause (IPCC)
Global Surface temperatures risen – 0.8C since 1880s (IPCC),
Australian temperatures risen 0.9C since 1910 (CSIRO)
Sources: IPCC (2013), CSIRO (2014), Graph from Trenbeth & Fasullo (2013)
Rising CO2 and temperature

4. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Ocean heat content rising
Surface temperatures rising
Sea Levels rising
Sea Ice shrinking
Ice Sheet mass loss
accelerating
Sources: IPCC AR5 (2013), CSIRO (2014), Graph from CSIRO (2014)
Science on climate change is mostly settled
Over 90% of heat uptake is in global oceans

5. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Local Weather Impacts
South East Australia becoming
drier (long term trend - BOM)
Storms, when they do occur,
will be more intense (CSIRO)
More intense and frequent
heatwaves, hotspells (Steffen)
Longer fire season and more
intense fire weather for
bushfires (Hughes, Lucas)
Sources: Steffen (2014), Hughes (2013), Lucas et al (2007), Own image

6. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Heatwaves amplify Urban Heat island effect
Elevated temperatures pose a threat to public health with disruption to
sleep and thermoregulation resulting in heat stress.
Sources: Dan Li et al (2013), Grunstein/The Conversation (2014), Sherwood et al (2010) Image: Courtesy US EPA
• The point
where temperature
starts affecting
sleep is about 23
degrees Celsius –
results in disruption
to REM sleep
(Grunstein)
• Adaptable limit due
to heat stress (35C
for extended periods)
(Sherwood)

7. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Urban impacts of heatwaves and hotspells
Heatwaves kill more people in Australia than any other
natural disaster, excluding epidemics.
Source: Australian State of the Cities Report 2013 cites Australian Emergency Management Institute

8. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
2009 Black Saturday bushfires killed 173 people.
2009 Heatwave killed 374 people (excess deaths).
Sources: Public Health Dept (2009) Graph courtesy Public Health Dept

9. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Heat related deaths estimated to increase
Source: Graph courtesy PriceWaterhouseCoopers (2011)

10. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Heatwaves result in Reduced work Productivity
Sources: Dunne et al (2013) Graph courtesy Dunne et al (2013)
A Study estimated:
"labour capacity reduction
to less than 40% by
2200 in peak months,
with most tropical and
mid-latitudes
experiencing extreme
climatological heat
stress.“
- Dunne et al (2013)

11. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
We have designed and engineered buildings, structures, public
transport for certain temperature tolerances to mid 30s-low 40s,
we are now exceeding these temperatures. Heatwaves may cause
Cascading Infrastructure failure.
Sources: McEvoy et al (2012), Reeves et al (2010), Nguyen et al (2010), Health Dept (2009) Image from Reeves.
electricity failure and
loadshedding,
public transport
disruptions
Under stress: health
services delivery by
Ambulance, hospitals,
mortuaries.

12. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Source: Climate Institute Report on Infrastructure (2013).

13. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Flying Fox as signature species
with heat tolerance about 41-42C
Young and lactating females
strongly affected.
Thousands died in 2014
Queensland heatwave (Englart)
Yarra Bend colony deaths
Other fauna, birds, plants also
impacted
Sources: Welbergen et al (2008), John Englart (2014), Image Sundew/Flickr
Heatwaves impact urban ecosystems and wildlife

14. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
“The spatial distribution of heat related vulnerability in the Melbourne greater
metropolitan area suggests that areas of higher risk are concentrated in the
western and south-eastern regions. These are areas with a higher
concentration of aged persons and households where English is not the
primary language.” – Loughnan et al (2013)
Source: Mapping Heatwave Vulnerability, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF)
How vulnerable
is your suburb?

15. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
The Vulnerability Index is a composite index of three risk categories:
demographic, environmental and health. More info see Loughnan et al (2013)
and http://www.mappingvulnerabilityindex.com/
Source: Mapping Heatwave Vulnerability, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF)

16. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
So can't we just all get air conditioners to adapt?
Air-conditioners add 1-2C of heat to the urban environment.
“The comparison between the scenarios with heat releases in the street and the
baseline case without air conditioning showed a systematic increase in the
street air temperature, and this increase was greater at night time than day
time. It is counter-intuitive because the heat releases are higher during the day.
This is due to the shallower atmospheric boundary layer during the night.”
- C DeMunck et al
Sources: (deMunck et al 2012), Image: De Munck et al

17. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Solutions?
Rapid Reduction in CO2 emissions
required to stabilise temperatures (IPCC)
Need to transition: 90% of Victoria's
electricity comes from brown coal
(Arup)
solar PV: 6% of Moreland households
7.2% in Darebin (Englart)
Wind power is 27% capacity in SA, but
less than 3% in Victoria due to
draconian planning regulations (AEMO,
Green)
Future Possibilities: Large scale Solar,
Ocean wave, tidal, geothermal (CSIRO)
Sources: IPCC AR5, Arup (2014), Green (2013), Englart (2013), AEMO (2013), CSIRO (2012), Image John Englart

18. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Increase Urban forest to counter
urban heat island effect (MCC)
Heat alert and emergency
response plan targeting
vulnerable groups (see VCOSS
report)
Increase insulation standards,
building standards (Reeves)
Increase heat tolerances for new
infrastructure, retrofit (Reeves)
Urban planning for more
walking, cycling, PT (Rauland)
Sources: Melbourne City Council (2012), VCOSS (2013), Reeves et al (2010), Rauland (2013)
Climate Adaptation to heatwaves is necessary:

19. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Summary
Climate change is real, impacting now
Action needed by all levels of
Government, business and individuals
to stabilise climate for the future
We all need to reduce our carbon
footprint and emissions
Going back is not an option. We can
slow it down. Climate departure 2073
for Melbourne with mitigation (Mora)
need to adapt to new climates, higher
temperatures and heatwaves
Avoid the unmanageable (mitigate),
and manage the unavoidable (adapt)
Sources: Mora et al (2013), Image John Englart

20. Heatwaves, Climate change and Melbourne
Actions:
Assess your own carbon
footprint and ways you can
reduce CO2 (WWF & EPA
Victoria web apps)
Lobby those in business or
politics to take action. It's your
future!
Educate yourself on the issues
Sign petitions, use social media
Vote wisely in elections
Source: WWF Carbon footprint calculator result
Presentation by John Englart, NMIT student, March 2014