Presentation made at the WCCA 2001 event in Brisbane, Australia.

1. Technology Adoption and Impact
Pathways for SIMLESA
Bekele Shiferaw
SIMLESA Session at WCCA
26 Sept, 2011
Brisbane, Australia

2. Targeted Countries and Crops
Country Targeted Farming systems
Ethiopia Maize-com bean system Maize-soybean/com
(Melkassa & Awassa) bean systems (Bako
- mid-altitude dryland and Pawi) - mid-
zone in the Rift Valley attitude sub-humid
zone in western
Ethiopia
Kenya Maize-com bean system Maize-com bean/
(western Kenya, p-pea system
Kakamega) (central/eastern
Kenya, Embu and
Mbeere)
Tanzania Maize-pigeonpea Maize-Pigeonpea
system Northern zone – system Eastern zone
Mbulu and Karatu – Kilosa, Mvomero
districts district
Malawi Maize + Groundnuts, Maize + pigeonpea
Maize + Beans, Maize + (Southern)
Soya bean (central)
Mozambi Maize-pigeonpea Maize-pigeonpea
que system (Tete- system (Manica-
region) Climoio region)

3. Vision of Success
● To increase maize and legume yields by 30% for
benefitting farmers
– through improved maize and legume varieties and associated
management practices,
– with adoption enabled and motivated through the
development of markets and value chains, from input supplies
to output markets.
● To reduce downside yield risks by 30% (for
downside risk of profits falling below the breakeven
point).
● To benefit 500,000 farm households within 10 years.

4. Monitoring and Evaluation
● Process monitoring and evaluation
– Aims to assess to what extent the project has been implemented as
planned and to identify operational and strategic lessons for smooth
implementation
– Requires careful description and monitoring of activities, milestones
and outcomes of the project
– Drawing lessons and making timely corrective action to tackle
problems and capitalize on new opportunities
● Adoption and impact monitoring and evaluation
– Aims to measure the project’s success in achieving stated objectives
using a counterfactual
– Requires measurement of progress using tangible indicators affected
by the program and how this differs from the situation without
interventions
– Extensive data collection using standard instruments

5. Process monitoring and evaluation
● By whom? ● How it is done?
– Pro Steering Committee – Annual progress reports
(PSC) Monitoring from all partners by
the objective
– Project Management progress – In-country planning and
Committee (PMC) and review meetings
– Project Coordinator attainment
of: – Annual regional evaluation
– Objective coordinators and planning meetings
– National coordinators – PMC managerial action
– Clearly defined roles – PSC oversight and
and responsibilities for Agreed recommendations
accountability Activities, – Informal/formal feedback
Milestones, from farmers and partners
– Performance contracts Outputs,
with all partners Outcomes – National M&E teams and
ASARECA
Logframe and PMS by
ASARECA

6. Adoption and Impact Monitoring
Aim
– Measurement of progress using tangible indicators affected by
the program and how this differs from the situation without
interventions
● By whom?
– Lead: Objective 1
– Participate: all other objectives
● How? Baseline and adoption studies
– Joint visits for site selection
– PRA for selecting villages and snapshot of the target areas
– Baseline household (and market) surveys – year 1
– Baseline study report – establishes existing conditions for
participating and non-participating groups
– Adoption surveys (year 4) to monitor changes in selected impact
indicators
– Estimating adoption and early impact of the project

7. Feedback process to facilitate adaptive learning
and priority setting for impact
● Process Adoption, impact
Program Evaluation and
monitoring and Planning Meetings
monitoring and
evaluation evaluation
PMC, Objective 1 with
PSC, PC, NC, OL inputs from Obj 2-5
Greater Efficiency, Accelerated
Outcomes and Impact of the
Project

8. Impact Pathway
Second order impacts
First order impacts
Outcomes
Outputs
Activity

9. How do we get there? Catalyzing change through the impact pathway
SIMLESA
Research Outputs Outcomes Impacts
Investments
Next Final users
Adopter-level changes Local, national, regional
users (Adopters)
Improved
knowledge Seed industry and Change in
Objective 1 farmer coops Change in
total
Changes in
management
and 4 Government (policies, welfare:
regulations,
production
Income
New institutions, Project teams,
agencies/ laws) growth and
policies, tools Government agencies, departments Change poverty
and donors in supply reduction
(policy response
Change yield
makers) and area and
Other development market
Objective 2 Management organizations (NGOs,
practices and risk prices Change in
farmer groups)
reducing social
Change in
innovations conditions:
Farmers costs and Indirect
profits gender equity,
(men and Scaling up economic food security,
NARS (Research) and scaling impacts and
New germplasm (Incl. private sector)
women) out of and
Objective 3 (varieties and vulnerability
Change in successful multiplier
hybrids)
profitability innovations effects
Breeder seed Seed companies Agrodealers and Change in
Change in Change in
and foundation attitude,
seed agribusinesses gender, economic environmental
innovation conditions, conditions: soil
income fertility, organic
growth matter, agro-
NARS (Research) Change in risk ecosystem
R&D management health
Objective 4 infrastructure (Incl. private sector)
and 5
Change in
Trained human Government research
resources (Ministries, capacity
Departments)

10. Selected Indicators of First and Second
order Impacts
● Economic impacts
– Farmers adopting the new varieties and improved
practices
– Changes in area of the crop
– Changes in yield of the crop
– Changes in profits or net income from crops
– Changes in marketed surplus of production
– Farmers accessing inputs and services
– Changes in household food security (consumption) –SO
– Changes in total production – SO
– Changes in market prices for commodities – SO
– …..

11. Other social benefits and impacts
● Social impacts
– Changes in risk and vulnerability to shocks -SO
– Women farmers participating in PVS and accessing seed,
information and other services - SO
– Changes in child malnutrition and health - SO
– Changes in poverty profiles - SO
● Institutional impact (capacity strengthening)
– Local capacity building – human capital, institutions, etc - FO
– Level of government support and policy changes - SO
– Shift in total demand for maize and legumes – SO
• Environmental and sustainability impacts
– Improvements in soil organic matter, reduction in soil nutrient
mining, soil loss, etc

12. Impact targets
Maize Varieties
No of communities No of farmers
Year reached reached Adopters (67%)
1 38 7600 (?)
2 68 13680 5092
3 123 24624 9166
4 222 44,323 16,498
5 399 79,782 29,697
6 718 143,607 53,454
7 1,292 258,493 96,217
8 2,326 465287 173,190
9 4,188 837,517 311,742
10 7,538 1,507,531 561,136

13. Impact targets (cont.)
Legume Varieties
No of communities No of farmers
Year reached reached Adopters (50%)
1 38 7,600 (?)
2 68 13,680 3,800
3 123 24,624 6,840
4 222 44,323 12,312
5 399 79,782 22,162
6 718 143,607 39,891
7 1,292 258,493 71,804
8 2,326 465,287 129,246
9 4,188 837,517 232,644
10 7,538 1,507,531 418,759

14. Impact targets (cont.)
CA with fert and weed control
No of communities No of farmers
Year reached reached Adopters
1 38 7,600
2 68 13,680 60
3 123 24,624 180
4 222 44,323 540
5 399 79,782 1,620
6 718 143,607 4,860
7 1,292 258,493 14,580
8 2,326 465,287 43,740
9 4,188 837,517 131,220
10 7,538 1,507,531 393,660

15. Impact targets by country and year
Technology adoption
140,000
120,000
100,000 Ethiopia
80,000 Kenya
60,000 Tanzania
40,000 Malawi
20,000 Moz
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year

16. Seed Road Map for Country Y with variety X
Seed Road Map 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Variety in DUS/VCU Trials October, 2010: Provide
36 kg for Trials/Demos
Variety Release Meeting October 2011
Breeder Seed Production
- NARS seed farms
Pre-Basic and Basic Seed Production
- NARS seed farms
- Seed company
Certified Seed Production
- NARS seed farms
- Seed company
Variety Demonstrations
- Research team
- MOA
- Seed company
Variety Promotion and Marketing 5000 leaflets 10000 leaflets 10000 leaflets
- Seed company 10 Field days 20 Field days 20 Field days
- Farmer coops

17. Thank you!

19. Estimated economic rate of
returns from the project
Estimated Impact of the
Project r=5% r=10% r=15%
Total costs (PV),
million USD 2128.15 936.11 458.33
Total benefits (PV),
million USD 4692.63 1994.89 926.91
Net present value
(NPV), million USD 2564.48 1058.78 468.58
Benefit cost ratio 2.21 2.13 2.02

20. Outputs and output targets
• Outputs are the products of research with a defined time
line, contributing to reaching the vision of success by
offering solutions to problems identified during the planning
process.
• Output Targets are the annual deliverables, defined by
quantity and type, expected in a specific year and
contributing to achieving the Project Outputs.
– materials,
– policy strategies,
– practices,
– capacity, and
– knowledge.

21. Output categories
● Materials refer to all biological materials and knowledge that
adds value to them; not to documents.
● Policy strategies refer to analysis and information that is aimed
to be used for policy decision making.
● Practices include tools, methods and processes that intended for
use in research, breeding, policy work, extension,
demonstration, and evaluation in the field.
● Capacity strengthening includes training and other instruction
aimed at enhancing individual capacity, training materials and
resources, and interventions that are aimed at enhancing
institutional capacity.
● Knowledge include knowledge and data that are the deliverable
research achievements and do not belong to any of the other
categories.

22. Outcomes and Impact
Outcome
Outcome is the external use, adoption, or influence
of output (s) (e.g. by partners, stakeholders, clients).
Impact
Impacts are the longer range social, environmental
and economic benefits that are consistent with the
vision of success for the project or program.