The document discusses balancing trade-offs between food production, environment, livelihoods, and efficiency in future production systems. It notes the need to feed a growing population while maintaining or reducing environmental impacts. Mixed crop-livestock systems currently produce much of the world's food but face increasing pressures from population growth, urbanization, and rising demand for food and livestock products. Sustainable intensification of these systems will be important to close yield gaps while improving efficiency. Trade-offs between different outcomes need to be considered at farm and broader scales.
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Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production, livelihoods, efficiency and the environment. Mario Herrero
1. Production systems for the future:
Balancing trade-offs betweenfor the future:
Production systems food production,
balancing trade-offs between environment
livelihoods, efficiency and the food production,
efficiency, livelihoods and the environment
M. Herrero and P. K. Thornton
and many others
M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton
WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation
5th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture | 3rd2010 | Systems Symposium
21st September Farming ILRI, Nairobi
26-29 September 2011, Brisbane, Australia
2. Acknowledgements
Many people involved:
P. Havlik, A. Notenbaert, M. Obersteiner, S.
Wood, S. Msangi, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D.
Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X.
Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott, M. Peters, P.
Parthasarathy Rao, D. Enahoro, B. Gerard,
G. Nelson, S. Robinson and M. Rosegrant
3. The challenge ahead
Need to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050 (1/3
more than now)
At a lower environmental cost (roughly the same
land, low emissions, water and nutrient use)
In a socially and economically acceptable way
(equitably, at the right prices, etc)
Food systems have been changing and are likely
to change even more!
How does this translate locally and into an
actionable research agenda
4. Livelihoods in transition – the target is moving!
Can we influence the next transition for the benefit of society
and the environment?
W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system
Photos courtesy of B. Gerard
7. The Livestock Revolution:
A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as
income grows
5
Log per capita consumption
4
China
Trend
3
of meat
2
1
India
04 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Log per capita GNP
Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study. 7
14. Climate change
14 • 3/21/11
Crop suitability is changing
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
15. What are recent assessments telling
us about the future of food production
16. Food production
Cereals Production
4%
14%
AgroPastoral
Mixed Extensive
45%
Mixed Intensive
Other
35% Developed countries
2%
Mixed systems in the developing world produce almost 50% of
the cereals of the World
Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high
potential, relatively good market access)
17. Mixed systems in the developing World produce
the food of the poor
Maize Production Millet Production
3%
13% 1% 6%
26%
19%
54% AgroPastoral
28%
Mixed Extensive
Mixed Intensive
Other
2% Developed countries
48%
Rice Production Sorghum Production
6% 3% 3%
5%
20%
31%
44%
2%
66% 20%
18. Mixed systems produce significant amounts of
milk and meat
beef milk lamb
9% 7%
13% 28% 28%
15%
50% AgroPastoral
Mixed Extensive
17%
59% 5% Mixed Intensive
19% Other
18% Developed countri
4%
7% 21%
Developed countries dominate global milk production,
significant exports
…but…
Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb
in the developing World
19. Mixed intensive systems in the developing World
are under significant pressures
2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in
Asia
150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by
2030
Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry,
increasing by 30-40% to 2030
Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice
Others increasing: maize (East Asia)
All in the same land!
Severe water constraints in some places
Soil fertility problems, shrinking farm sizes in others
20. Mixed intensive systems in the developing World
are under significant pressures (2)
Population density*
(people/km2) 2000 2030
agro-pastoral 8 14
mixed extensive 79 112
mixed intensive 273 371
other 28 41
* Baseline scenario
21. Rates of cereal production diminishing in places
due to water and other constraints
Annual changes in Cereal Production
2000 - 2030
Rates lower than those of population Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar
growth Catching up
to developed countries
6
5
4
%
3
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Herrero et al 2009
22. …but rates of production of animal products are
increasing at significantly faster rates….
Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
8
7
6
5
Increased consumption
%
4
3 Increased incomes
2
1
0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
9
8
7
6
…but increased pressure on 5
%
4
resources (land, feeds, etc) 3
2
1
Some industrialisation…. 0
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
23. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional
cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed
demands (IAASTD 2009)
Grains
1048 million tonnes
more to 2050
human
Livestock
consumption
430 million MT
Monogastrics mostly
458 million MT
biofuels
160 million MT
24. Projected land use changes to 2050 in several
integrated assessments (Smith et al 2010)
Cropland Rangeland Natural habitats
+10 to 20% avg = 10% 0 to -20%
Cropland area increasing at a faster rate than rangelands
Faster expansion of monogastric production and intensification of
ruminant production with grains
26. Significant biomass flikely to increase prices of food
feed crops
groundnut
energy pigeon pea
Further
chickpea
sorghum
millet
sugar cane
increases?
cassava
grains sweet potatos
potatos
soybeans
oil grains
maize
human wheat
livestock rice
Monogastrics mostly
consumption milk
eggs
+ ruminants poultry
lamb reference 2030
pork
biofuels 2030
beef
livestock -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
products % change from 2000
27. ‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to
expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk
and meat increases
India
quotes from M Blummel
‘Stovers transported more
than 400 km to be sold’
‘Price has doubled in 5
years, now 2/3 of
grain value of sorghum’
‘Farmers paying for stover
quality’
Herrero et al. 2009
28. Some systems may need to de-intensify or stop
growing to ensure the sustainability of agro-
ecosystems
Creation of incentives to protect the environment
required
Equitable, ‘smart’ schemes for payments for
environmental services
Need significant efficiency gains (in crops, in
livestock, in other sectors)
Need to understand better what sustainable
intensification is
29. Important productivity gains could be made in the
more extensive mixed rainfed areas
Less pressure on the land Population density*
(people/km2) 2000 2030
agro-pastoral 8 14
mixed extensive 79 112
mixed intensive 273 371
other 28 41
Yield gaps still large
Public investment required to reduce transaction costs, increase
service provision and improve risk management
These systems could turn in ‘providers’ of agro-ecosystems
services to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensive
systems)
30. Yield gaps still high in more extensive systems
Maize crop in Rajasthan, India during rainy season 2009
District Rainfall Yield (kg ha-1) CD
(mm) FP FP + IC BN + IC (5%)
Tonk 288 1150 1930 3160 280
Udaipur 570 2530 3090 6320 509
Mean
(5 districts) 1810 2550 (41%) 4340 (141%)
FP=Farmers’ practice; IC=Improved cultivar; BN=Balanced nutrition
Courtesy of Peter Craufurd
31. How can we translate the results of
global assessments into actionable
points at the farm level?
36. Some conclusions
Can we feed 9 billion people: yes, with different
resource use implications and costs depending on
the pathway/scenario
to change investment paradigm and also start
investing in the systems of the future (not only in
the what were the high potential areas)
Infrastructure and market development essential
Incentives: Technology could play a key role but we
need investment in provision of services
37. Some conclusions
Sustainable intensification: essential to
bridge yield gaps
Need to think of also bridging efficiency
gaps (more crop per drop, etc), especially
in resource-constrained systems
Is there a role for payments for ecosystems
services as a diversification option for
smallholders?
38. Some conclusions
Need multi-scale assessments covering
different dimensions (multiple currencies:
income, nutrients, biomass, GHG, water,
etc)
Process is key: need to ensure adequate
involvement of stakeholders in order to
achieve desirable outcomes
39. Contrasting agricultural development
paradigms
How much land is available for
agricultural expansion?
Widely different estimates in the literature
(300 – 800 million hectares)
What types of land are suitable? Rangeland vs
forest? Opportunity costs?
What kinds of incentives will be required to
develop them?
Can their development be pro-poor?
What is the magnitude of the investment
required?
40. Contrasting agricultural development
paradigms
Land consolidation vs growth of the
smallholder sector
Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign
capital investment)
Smallholder development possibly more pro-
poor
Smallholders: low opportunity cost of labour
Do diversified smallholder farms promote more
biodiversity and better management of
ecosystems services?
41. Contrasting agricultural development
paradigms
Land consolidation vs growth of the
smallholder sector
More diversified systems = Risk management
If smallholders where to disappear in places,
are there sectors that can absorb the idling
population?
Smallholder sector largely fragmented: who
are the actors required for their fast
development?