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Production systems for the future:
Balancing trade-offs betweenfor the future:
       Production systems food production,
balancing trade-offs between environment
 livelihoods, efficiency and the food production,
 efficiency, livelihoods and the environment

        M. Herrero and P. K. Thornton
              and many others
                         M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton




                                          WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation
          5th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture | 3rd2010 | Systems Symposium
                                       21st September Farming ILRI, Nairobi
                                             26-29 September 2011, Brisbane, Australia
Acknowledgements
 Many people involved:

 P. Havlik, A. Notenbaert, M. Obersteiner, S.
 Wood, S. Msangi, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D.
 Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X.
 Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott, M. Peters, P.
 Parthasarathy Rao, D. Enahoro, B. Gerard,
 G. Nelson, S. Robinson and M. Rosegrant
The challenge ahead
   Need to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050 (1/3
    more than now)

   At a lower environmental cost (roughly the same
    land, low emissions, water and nutrient use)

   In a socially and economically acceptable way
    (equitably, at the right prices, etc)

   Food systems have been changing and are likely
    to change even more!

   How does this translate locally and into an
    actionable research agenda
Livelihoods in transition – the target is moving!

    Can we influence the next transition for the benefit of society
    and the environment?


W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system          2004 – crop-livestock system




                                             Photos courtesy of B. Gerard
Drivers and trends
Population Growth in Developing and
Industrialized Countries: 1750 - 2050




                                        6
The Livestock Revolution:
       A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as
                         income grows
                             5
Log per capita consumption



                             4
                                 China
                                                                                      Trend
                             3
          of meat




                             2

                             1
                                                   India
                             04      5           6        7      8      9              10     11
                                                     Log per capita GNP
       Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.                7
Urbanization




               8
The demand for livestock products to
       2050


                       Annual per capita         Total consumption
                         consumption

             year   Meat (kg)     Milk (kg)   Meat (Mt)     Milk (Mt)


Developing   2002      28            44          137           222
             2050      44            78          326           585

Developed    2002      78            202         102           265
             2050      94            216         126           295



                                              Rosegrant et al 2009
Cereal yields




                Increasing….except in
                Sub-Saharan Africa




                     World Bank 2007
Area under cultivation and rates of
growth in cereal yields




                           World Bank 2007











Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production, livelihoods, efficiency and the environment. Mario Herrero
Climate change
14 • 3/21/11



 Crop suitability is changing




      Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
What are recent assessments telling
us about the future of food production
Food production

                     Cereals Production



                    4%
                         14%
                                          AgroPastoral
                                          Mixed Extensive
        45%
                                          Mixed Intensive
                                          Other

                           35%            Developed countries

               2%

Mixed systems in the developing world produce almost 50% of
the cereals of the World

Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high
potential, relatively good market access)
Mixed systems in the developing World produce
the food of the poor

        Maize Production                            Millet Production
                  3%
                         13%                1% 6%
                                                            26%
                                     19%



  54%                                                                   AgroPastoral
                               28%
                                                                        Mixed Extensive
                                                                        Mixed Intensive
                                                                        Other
                        2%                                              Developed countries
                                                  48%



        Rice Production                Sorghum Production
                6% 3%                                3%
          5%
                             20%
                                      31%



                                                                  44%

                                      2%


          66%                               20%
Mixed systems produce significant amounts of
          milk and meat



           beef                milk                               lamb
              9%                      7%

                                           13%        28%                28%
                   15%


50%                                                                            AgroPastoral
                                                                               Mixed Extensive
                                                17%
                         59%                          5%                       Mixed Intensive
                   19%                                                         Other
                                                                         18% Developed countri
                                           4%
              7%                                            21%




      Developed countries dominate global milk production,
      significant exports
      …but…
      Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb
      in the developing World
Mixed intensive systems in the developing World
are under significant pressures

   2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in
    Asia
   150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by
    2030
   Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry,
    increasing by 30-40% to 2030
   Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice
   Others increasing: maize (East Asia)
   All in the same land!

   Severe water constraints in some places
   Soil fertility problems, shrinking farm sizes in others
Mixed intensive systems in the developing World
are under significant pressures   (2)


Population density*
(people/km2)                2000        2030

agro-pastoral                8          14

mixed extensive              79         112

mixed intensive             273         371

other                        28         41
* Baseline scenario
Rates of cereal production diminishing in places
due to water and other constraints

                      Annual changes in Cereal Production
                                 2000 - 2030
  Rates lower than those of population                            Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar
                growth                        Catching up
                                                                            to developed countries
     6

     5

     4
 %




     3

     2

     1

     0
           CSA            EA             SA           SEA        SSA       WANA           Total

     AgroPastoral      Mixed Extensive         Mixed Intensive   Other   Developed countries




                                                                         Herrero et al 2009
…but rates of production of animal products are
                      increasing at significantly faster rates….
            Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030

    8
    7
    6
    5
                                                                                            Increased consumption
%




    4
    3                                                                                       Increased incomes
    2
    1
    0
         CSA         EA         SA         SEA         SSA      WANA         Total

    AgroPastoral   Mixed Extensive   Mixed Intensive   Other   Developed countries


                                                                                       Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030

                                                                             9
                                                                             8
                                                                             7
                                                                             6
    …but increased pressure on                                               5
                                                                         %




                                                                             4
    resources (land, feeds, etc)                                             3
                                                                             2
                                                                             1
    Some industrialisation….                                                 0
                                                                                     CSA    EA        SA       SEA       SSA      WANA       Total

                                                                             AgroPastoral   Mixed Extensive   Mixed Intensive   Other   Developed countries
The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional
               cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed
               demands (IAASTD 2009)


                   Grains
              1048 million tonnes
                more to 2050




                               human
Livestock
                            consumption
430 million MT
Monogastrics mostly
                           458 million MT



                    biofuels
                 160 million MT
Projected land use changes to 2050 in several
       integrated assessments (Smith et al 2010)


    Cropland                   Rangeland             Natural habitats
   +10 to 20%                  avg = 10%               0 to -20%




Cropland area increasing at a faster rate than rangelands

Faster expansion of monogastric production and intensification of
ruminant production with grains
Stover deficits likely to occur in the future
                               Herrero et al. 2009
Significant biomass flikely to increase prices of food
               feed crops

                                                    groundnut
                       energy                     pigeon pea

                                                                                                   Further
                                                     chickpea
                                                     sorghum
                                                          millet
                                                  sugar cane
                                                                                                   increases?
                                                      cassava
                       grains                   sweet potatos
                                                       potatos
                                                    soybeans
                                                     oil grains
                                                         maize
                                     human               wheat
livestock                                                   rice

Monogastrics mostly
                                  consumption              milk
                                                          eggs
+ ruminants                                             poultry
                                                          lamb                                           reference 2030
                                                           pork
                                                                                                         biofuels 2030
                                                           beef

                      livestock                    -50             0   50   100     150      200   250       300          350

                      products                                               % change from 2000
‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to
expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk
and meat increases

                                 India
                                 quotes from M Blummel

                                 ‘Stovers transported more
                                 than 400 km to be sold’

                                 ‘Price has doubled in 5
                                 years, now 2/3 of
                                 grain value of sorghum’

                                 ‘Farmers paying for stover
                                 quality’




                                     Herrero et al. 2009
Some systems may need to de-intensify or stop
growing to ensure the sustainability of agro-
ecosystems

   Creation of incentives to protect the environment
    required

   Equitable, ‘smart’ schemes for payments for
    environmental services

   Need significant efficiency gains (in crops, in
    livestock, in other sectors)

   Need to understand better what sustainable
    intensification is
Important productivity gains could be made in the
       more extensive mixed rainfed areas

      Less pressure on the land      Population density*
                                      (people/km2)          2000   2030
                                      agro-pastoral          8     14
                                      mixed extensive       79     112
                                      mixed intensive       273    371
                                      other                 28     41




Yield gaps still large

Public investment required to reduce transaction costs, increase
service provision and improve risk management

These systems could turn in ‘providers’ of agro-ecosystems
services to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensive
systems)
Yield gaps still high in more extensive systems


                      Maize crop in Rajasthan, India during rainy season 2009


District          Rainfall                    Yield (kg ha-1)                    CD
                   (mm)            FP         FP + IC             BN + IC       (5%)
Tonk                 288          1150          1930                3160         280
Udaipur              570          2530          3090                6320         509
Mean
(5 districts)                     1810       2550 (41%)         4340 (141%)
           FP=Farmers’ practice; IC=Improved cultivar; BN=Balanced nutrition




                                                             Courtesy of Peter Craufurd
How can we translate the results of
global assessments into actionable
points at the farm level?
complex !
different oppotunities
Integrated assessment of farming systems
essential




                                   Herrero et al, Science 2010
Trade-offs and synergies



                     income
                       1
                     0.5
 external inputs               food security
                      0


         water use            GHG


                                    mixed
                                    pastoral
Concluding remarks
Some conclusions

   Can we feed 9 billion people: yes, with different
    resource use implications and costs depending on
    the pathway/scenario

   to change investment paradigm and also start
    investing in the systems of the future (not only in
    the what were the high potential areas)

   Infrastructure and market development essential

   Incentives: Technology could play a key role but we
    need investment in provision of services
Some conclusions

   Sustainable intensification: essential to
    bridge yield gaps

   Need to think of also bridging efficiency
    gaps (more crop per drop, etc), especially
    in resource-constrained systems

   Is there a role for payments for ecosystems
    services as a diversification option for
    smallholders?
Some conclusions

   Need multi-scale assessments covering
    different dimensions (multiple currencies:
    income, nutrients, biomass, GHG, water,
    etc)

   Process is key: need to ensure adequate
    involvement of stakeholders in order to
    achieve desirable outcomes
Contrasting agricultural development
paradigms

   How much land is available for
    agricultural expansion?
       Widely different estimates in the literature
        (300 – 800 million hectares)
       What types of land are suitable? Rangeland vs
        forest? Opportunity costs?
       What kinds of incentives will be required to
        develop them?
       Can their development be pro-poor?
       What is the magnitude of the investment
        required?
Contrasting agricultural development
paradigms

   Land consolidation vs growth of the
    smallholder sector
       Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign
        capital investment)
       Smallholder development possibly more pro-
        poor
       Smallholders: low opportunity cost of labour
       Do diversified smallholder farms promote more
        biodiversity and better management of
        ecosystems services?
Contrasting agricultural development
paradigms

   Land consolidation vs growth of the
    smallholder sector

       More diversified systems = Risk management
       If smallholders where to disappear in places,
        are there sectors that can absorb the idling
        population?
       Smallholder sector largely fragmented: who
        are the actors required for their fast
        development?
Thank you!

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Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production, livelihoods, efficiency and the environment. Mario Herrero

  • 1. Production systems for the future: Balancing trade-offs betweenfor the future: Production systems food production, balancing trade-offs between environment livelihoods, efficiency and the food production, efficiency, livelihoods and the environment M. Herrero and P. K. Thornton and many others M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation 5th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture | 3rd2010 | Systems Symposium 21st September Farming ILRI, Nairobi 26-29 September 2011, Brisbane, Australia
  • 2. Acknowledgements Many people involved: P. Havlik, A. Notenbaert, M. Obersteiner, S. Wood, S. Msangi, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott, M. Peters, P. Parthasarathy Rao, D. Enahoro, B. Gerard, G. Nelson, S. Robinson and M. Rosegrant
  • 3. The challenge ahead  Need to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050 (1/3 more than now)  At a lower environmental cost (roughly the same land, low emissions, water and nutrient use)  In a socially and economically acceptable way (equitably, at the right prices, etc)  Food systems have been changing and are likely to change even more!  How does this translate locally and into an actionable research agenda
  • 4. Livelihoods in transition – the target is moving! Can we influence the next transition for the benefit of society and the environment? W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system Photos courtesy of B. Gerard
  • 6. Population Growth in Developing and Industrialized Countries: 1750 - 2050 6
  • 7. The Livestock Revolution: A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as income grows 5 Log per capita consumption 4 China Trend 3 of meat 2 1 India 04 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Log per capita GNP Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study. 7
  • 9. The demand for livestock products to 2050 Annual per capita Total consumption consumption year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt) Developing 2002 28 44 137 222 2050 44 78 326 585 Developed 2002 78 202 102 265 2050 94 216 126 295 Rosegrant et al 2009
  • 10. Cereal yields Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa World Bank 2007
  • 11. Area under cultivation and rates of growth in cereal yields World Bank 2007
  • 14. Climate change 14 • 3/21/11 Crop suitability is changing Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
  • 15. What are recent assessments telling us about the future of food production
  • 16. Food production Cereals Production 4% 14% AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive 45% Mixed Intensive Other 35% Developed countries 2% Mixed systems in the developing world produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high potential, relatively good market access)
  • 17. Mixed systems in the developing World produce the food of the poor Maize Production Millet Production 3% 13% 1% 6% 26% 19% 54% AgroPastoral 28% Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other 2% Developed countries 48% Rice Production Sorghum Production 6% 3% 3% 5% 20% 31% 44% 2% 66% 20%
  • 18. Mixed systems produce significant amounts of milk and meat beef milk lamb 9% 7% 13% 28% 28% 15% 50% AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive 17% 59% 5% Mixed Intensive 19% Other 18% Developed countri 4% 7% 21% Developed countries dominate global milk production, significant exports …but… Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World
  • 19. Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures  2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in Asia  150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by 2030  Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry, increasing by 30-40% to 2030  Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice  Others increasing: maize (East Asia)  All in the same land!  Severe water constraints in some places  Soil fertility problems, shrinking farm sizes in others
  • 20. Mixed intensive systems in the developing World are under significant pressures (2) Population density* (people/km2) 2000 2030 agro-pastoral 8 14 mixed extensive 79 112 mixed intensive 273 371 other 28 41 * Baseline scenario
  • 21. Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints Annual changes in Cereal Production 2000 - 2030 Rates lower than those of population Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar growth Catching up to developed countries 6 5 4 % 3 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Herrero et al 2009
  • 22. …but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates…. Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030 8 7 6 5 Increased consumption % 4 3 Increased incomes 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030 9 8 7 6 …but increased pressure on 5 % 4 resources (land, feeds, etc) 3 2 1 Some industrialisation…. 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
  • 23. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 human Livestock consumption 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly 458 million MT biofuels 160 million MT
  • 24. Projected land use changes to 2050 in several integrated assessments (Smith et al 2010) Cropland Rangeland Natural habitats +10 to 20% avg = 10% 0 to -20% Cropland area increasing at a faster rate than rangelands Faster expansion of monogastric production and intensification of ruminant production with grains
  • 25. Stover deficits likely to occur in the future Herrero et al. 2009
  • 26. Significant biomass flikely to increase prices of food feed crops groundnut energy pigeon pea Further chickpea sorghum millet sugar cane increases? cassava grains sweet potatos potatos soybeans oil grains maize human wheat livestock rice Monogastrics mostly consumption milk eggs + ruminants poultry lamb reference 2030 pork biofuels 2030 beef livestock -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 products % change from 2000
  • 27. ‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases India quotes from M Blummel ‘Stovers transported more than 400 km to be sold’ ‘Price has doubled in 5 years, now 2/3 of grain value of sorghum’ ‘Farmers paying for stover quality’ Herrero et al. 2009
  • 28. Some systems may need to de-intensify or stop growing to ensure the sustainability of agro- ecosystems  Creation of incentives to protect the environment required  Equitable, ‘smart’ schemes for payments for environmental services  Need significant efficiency gains (in crops, in livestock, in other sectors)  Need to understand better what sustainable intensification is
  • 29. Important productivity gains could be made in the more extensive mixed rainfed areas  Less pressure on the land Population density* (people/km2) 2000 2030 agro-pastoral 8 14 mixed extensive 79 112 mixed intensive 273 371 other 28 41 Yield gaps still large Public investment required to reduce transaction costs, increase service provision and improve risk management These systems could turn in ‘providers’ of agro-ecosystems services to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensive systems)
  • 30. Yield gaps still high in more extensive systems Maize crop in Rajasthan, India during rainy season 2009 District Rainfall Yield (kg ha-1) CD (mm) FP FP + IC BN + IC (5%) Tonk 288 1150 1930 3160 280 Udaipur 570 2530 3090 6320 509 Mean (5 districts) 1810 2550 (41%) 4340 (141%) FP=Farmers’ practice; IC=Improved cultivar; BN=Balanced nutrition Courtesy of Peter Craufurd
  • 31. How can we translate the results of global assessments into actionable points at the farm level?
  • 33. Integrated assessment of farming systems essential Herrero et al, Science 2010
  • 34. Trade-offs and synergies income 1 0.5 external inputs food security 0 water use GHG mixed pastoral
  • 36. Some conclusions  Can we feed 9 billion people: yes, with different resource use implications and costs depending on the pathway/scenario  to change investment paradigm and also start investing in the systems of the future (not only in the what were the high potential areas)  Infrastructure and market development essential  Incentives: Technology could play a key role but we need investment in provision of services
  • 37. Some conclusions  Sustainable intensification: essential to bridge yield gaps  Need to think of also bridging efficiency gaps (more crop per drop, etc), especially in resource-constrained systems  Is there a role for payments for ecosystems services as a diversification option for smallholders?
  • 38. Some conclusions  Need multi-scale assessments covering different dimensions (multiple currencies: income, nutrients, biomass, GHG, water, etc)  Process is key: need to ensure adequate involvement of stakeholders in order to achieve desirable outcomes
  • 39. Contrasting agricultural development paradigms  How much land is available for agricultural expansion?  Widely different estimates in the literature (300 – 800 million hectares)  What types of land are suitable? Rangeland vs forest? Opportunity costs?  What kinds of incentives will be required to develop them?  Can their development be pro-poor?  What is the magnitude of the investment required?
  • 40. Contrasting agricultural development paradigms  Land consolidation vs growth of the smallholder sector  Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment)  Smallholder development possibly more pro- poor  Smallholders: low opportunity cost of labour  Do diversified smallholder farms promote more biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services?
  • 41. Contrasting agricultural development paradigms  Land consolidation vs growth of the smallholder sector  More diversified systems = Risk management  If smallholders where to disappear in places, are there sectors that can absorb the idling population?  Smallholder sector largely fragmented: who are the actors required for their fast development?

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Yield gap can be closed by improved cultivars combined with balanced nutrients