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Leadership Challenges in the Context of Demographic Change Dr. Johannes Meier HHL, Leipzig, 26. 05. 2004
Our Future? Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004
Agenda Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Seite  20. 5. 2004 Germany‘s population will shrink dramatically until 2050  Source: Enquete-Kommission Demographischer Wandel, UNFPA,  Eurostat, Bundesminister des Inneren
Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 Source: Fuchs/Thon 1999 ,  The working population will shrink most dramatically
Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 Source: Fuchs/Thon 1999,  Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Prognos The aging of the working population has started already
Seite  20. 5. 2004 Employment Rates of Older People (55 – 64 Jahre) Source: OECD-LMS
Seite  20. 5. 2004 The baby boomers are moving towards retirement
Seite  20. 5. 2004 The debt crisis (I): Spending commitments Source: DIW; middle sceanrios and status-quo taxationt; Färber, 1995 Pension entitlements Cities, Counties State Fed. States % Mrd. €
Seite  20. 5. 2004 Direct taxes  VAT  Total tax Tax Income % Mrd. € The debt crisis (II): Shrinking tax income Source: DIW; middle sceanrios and status-quo taxation; Färber, 1995 Cities, Counties State Fed. States Pension entitlements
Need for a turn-around ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004
Corporate warning signs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004
Seite  20. 5. 2004 Qualification structure of German population Dramatic increase of youths without formal degree or finished apprenticeship by age of 25
Agenda Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complications: Bail-out opportunities for the talents and wealthy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004
Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 Migration 1999-2020 (Optimistic scenario)
Agenda Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How to manage a corporate turn-around? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004
Agenda Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Seite  20. 5. 2004 More work for the young and the old is possible  Employment rates of young and older population segments, 2001  Source: DIW
Seite  20. 5. 2004 Measures taken M 1  .. M x A paradigm for change ( Performance Metrics t Positive Vision ‚ Horror‘ 5 Y. 10 Y. M 1 M 2 M X
Szenario planning as tool for making vision concrete Seite  20. 5. 2004 Social  civil society Dynamic  growth society Tough  competitive  society Declining  envy society Nostalgic  state society Current  state?
Demographic change as opportunity  for wide-ranging innovation of society Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda Seite  Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What does it mean for you? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Seite  20. 5. 2004

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Leadership Challenges in the Context of Demographic Change

  • 1. Leadership Challenges in the Context of Demographic Change Dr. Johannes Meier HHL, Leipzig, 26. 05. 2004
  • 2. Our Future? Seite Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Germany‘s population will shrink dramatically until 2050 Source: Enquete-Kommission Demographischer Wandel, UNFPA, Eurostat, Bundesminister des Inneren
  • 6. Seite Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 Source: Fuchs/Thon 1999 , The working population will shrink most dramatically
  • 7. Seite Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 Source: Fuchs/Thon 1999, Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Prognos The aging of the working population has started already
  • 8. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Employment Rates of Older People (55 – 64 Jahre) Source: OECD-LMS
  • 9. Seite 20. 5. 2004 The baby boomers are moving towards retirement
  • 10. Seite 20. 5. 2004 The debt crisis (I): Spending commitments Source: DIW; middle sceanrios and status-quo taxationt; Färber, 1995 Pension entitlements Cities, Counties State Fed. States % Mrd. €
  • 11. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Direct taxes VAT Total tax Tax Income % Mrd. € The debt crisis (II): Shrinking tax income Source: DIW; middle sceanrios and status-quo taxation; Färber, 1995 Cities, Counties State Fed. States Pension entitlements
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Qualification structure of German population Dramatic increase of youths without formal degree or finished apprenticeship by age of 25
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. Seite Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 Migration 1999-2020 (Optimistic scenario)
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. Seite 20. 5. 2004 More work for the young and the old is possible Employment rates of young and older population segments, 2001 Source: DIW
  • 22. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Measures taken M 1 .. M x A paradigm for change ( Performance Metrics t Positive Vision ‚ Horror‘ 5 Y. 10 Y. M 1 M 2 M X
  • 23. Szenario planning as tool for making vision concrete Seite 20. 5. 2004 Social civil society Dynamic growth society Tough competitive society Declining envy society Nostalgic state society Current state?
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.