5. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Germany‘s population will shrink dramatically until 2050 Source: Enquete-Kommission Demographischer Wandel, UNFPA, Eurostat, Bundesminister des Inneren
6. Seite Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 Source: Fuchs/Thon 1999 , The working population will shrink most dramatically
7. Seite Aktion Demographischer Wandel 20. 5. 2004 Source: Fuchs/Thon 1999, Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Prognos The aging of the working population has started already
8. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Employment Rates of Older People (55 – 64 Jahre) Source: OECD-LMS
9. Seite 20. 5. 2004 The baby boomers are moving towards retirement
10. Seite 20. 5. 2004 The debt crisis (I): Spending commitments Source: DIW; middle sceanrios and status-quo taxationt; Färber, 1995 Pension entitlements Cities, Counties State Fed. States % Mrd. €
11. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Direct taxes VAT Total tax Tax Income % Mrd. € The debt crisis (II): Shrinking tax income Source: DIW; middle sceanrios and status-quo taxation; Färber, 1995 Cities, Counties State Fed. States Pension entitlements
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14. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Qualification structure of German population Dramatic increase of youths without formal degree or finished apprenticeship by age of 25
21. Seite 20. 5. 2004 More work for the young and the old is possible Employment rates of young and older population segments, 2001 Source: DIW
22. Seite 20. 5. 2004 Measures taken M 1 .. M x A paradigm for change ( Performance Metrics t Positive Vision ‚ Horror‘ 5 Y. 10 Y. M 1 M 2 M X
23. Szenario planning as tool for making vision concrete Seite 20. 5. 2004 Social civil society Dynamic growth society Tough competitive society Declining envy society Nostalgic state society Current state?