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Practical Techniques for
Predicting the Future
Jesse Schell
@jesseschell
TFNW 2015
$
$
$ $
$
$
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
+ =
PsychologyTechnology Destiny
CrystalBallSociety.com
5 patterns
Pattern1
Foundational Technology
Makes the Biggest Changes
FOUNDATION
Decoration
Mickey Mouse’s First Cartoon?
Steamboat Willie (November, 1928)
Plane Crazy (May, 1928)
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Pattern2
The Hype Curve
The Hype Curve
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Pattern3
Disruption
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Pattern4
Technology Mostly Diverges
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Pattern5
History Keeps Repeating
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
1849!
Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
2011
Palmer
Luckey
(age 20)
1968
Ivan
Sutherland
1884
Nipkow
Disk
1927
Philo
Farnsworth
(age 20)
TV
VR
43 Years Later
43 Years Later
Foundational Technology
Makes the Biggest Changes
The Hype Curve
Disruption
Technology Mostly Diverges
History Keeps Repeating5
4
3
1
2
Send your predictions to me!
Jesse@SchellGames.com
Thanks!
Find slides at:
JesseSchell.com

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Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future