1. 40 Predictions
for VR/AR
through 2025
Jesse Schell
GDC 2016

3. Market

4. Prediction 1: Starting in 2016, VR headsets will be in
the consumer market
permanently

5. ?=1M
300K x 10 = 3M
10% of 40M = 4M
Prediction 2: By end of 2017, eight
million gamer headsets will
have been sold.

7. Prediction 3: In general, there will be four
mobile headsets for each gamer headset.

8. Prediction 4: Headset sales will double each
year until saturation is reached.
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Gamer VR 8M 16M 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M
Mobile VR 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M 1B 2B
Note: By 2020, there will
be about one billion PC/Console gamers,
and about four billion smartphone users.

9. Prediction 5: Fifty different headsets will
be featured at CES 2017.

10. Prediction 6: As soon as Sony sells 10M
headsets, Microsoft will announce one for
XBoxOne (probably E3 2018).

11. Prediction 7: By 2022, the majority of VR
Revenue will be spent on Portable, Self-
Contained VR systems that are not phones.

12. Games

13. Prediction 8: An asymmetric party game
will be a top ten VR game by end of 2017.

14. Prediction 9:
Madden 2018
will have a VR
edition.

15. Prediction 10: By the
end of 2018, a major
new VR-centric
game genre will
appear.

16. Fears

17. Prediction 11: By the end of 2017, the media will
blame at least one mass shooting on a VR game.

18. Prediction 12: By
end of 2017, news
stories about “VR
Addiction” will be
frequent.

19. Prediction 13:
By the end of
2018, there
will be at
least three
movies
playing on
fears of VR.

20. Filmmaking

21. Prediction 14:
By 2025, VR
home movies
will be our
most treasured
possessions.

22. Prediction 15:
Documentaries
will be the first
VR films to win
major awards.

23. Prediction 16: By 2020, VR porn
will be a $1B industry worldwide.

24. Prediction 17:
By 2020, there
will be at
least ten
Virtual
Reality
Reality
Shows.

25. Prediction 18:
The Divine
Comedy will
provide a
model for
successful
VR
storytelling.

27. Prediction 19:
By end of 2018,
will have a VR
channel.

28. Prediction 20: For feature films to
work in VR, they will need to be
social. We’ll figure this out by 2025.

29. Social

30. Prediction 21: By 2025, the majority of VR
revenue will be from social experiences.

31. Prediction 22:
By 2018, one of
the top ten VR
games will be
a dance game.

32. Prediction 23: By 2025, VR/AR
Boardgames will be a $100M business.

33. Prediction 24: By end of 2020, at least one
VR MMO will have > 1M subscribers.

34. Prediction 25: By the end of 2018, there
will be a leading VR social platform,
and it won’t be the old guard.

35. Prediction 26: By 2018, VR Emotes will be
very popular, and have a stupid name.

36. Location Based
Entertainment

37. Prediction 27:
In 2017, every
US State Fair
will have a VR
Attraction.

38. Give them
something
they can’t get
at home.
Rule #1:

39. Prediction 28: By 2020 there will be
at least 20 VR coasters worldwide.

40. Prediction 28: By 2020 2016 there will
be at least 20 VR coasters worldwide.

42. Prediction 29: By 2025 Bowling
with AR Glasses will be a thing.

43. Augmented Reality

44. Prediction 30: by 2025, the AR market will
be dominated by “video AR” systems similar
to the Vrvana Totem and Google Tango.

45. Prediction
31: AR
experiences
synced with
TV will be a
thing.

46. Prediction 32: Augmented reality
lectures will be popular by 2025.

47. Prediction 33: By 2025, chasing phantoms
in your house will be mainly for children.

48. Technology

49. Prediction 34: By 2018, gamers will
wear narrow glasses or get contacts.

50. Prediction 35: By 2020, really hardcore
gamers will have prescription lenses.

51. Prediction 36: By 2018, Eye tracking
VR headsets will be available.

52. Prediction 37: By 2020, Foveated Rendering
will exist. By 2025, it will be useful.

53. Prediction 38: By 2025, There will be
no more corded VR systems.

54. Touch

58. Prediction 39:
By 2020,
trackable
props for VR
and AR will
be common.

62. Prediction 40: In 2025, Robots will touch you in VR
and you’ll
like it.

63. Thanks!
Slides: jesseschell.com
Twitter: @jesseschell
Email: jesse@schellgames.com